How will Zaza do as the starting center?

[mrhonline]

Assuming the Bucks don't match, I took a closer statistical look at how Zaza would do as the starting center. I'll spare you the boring details, but I tried to isolate games where Zaza either got 20+ minutes a game -or- perhaps could have gotten that much had he avoided foul trouble.

The sample size was 41 games and 1000 minutes last year, so it's reasonably reliable. (Actually the sample was larger than that, I just weighted those 41 games more than the other 34 games, but that's another story). Anyways, if Zaza can stay healthy and out of foul trouble, I expect him to put up the following numbers in 36 min/game as the Hawks' starting center:

12/10/1 with 4 fouls, 45% fg, and 75% ft

At $4M per season, that's excellent value for a young player who hustles and is only going to improve. Just for comparison's sake, I found four other players who project similar numbers:

1. Lorenzen Wright

2. P.J. Brown

3. Udonis Haslem

4. Nick Collison

[clrumph]

Yeah, that's about what I expected. I wonder how much better Bogut will be with the Bucks because I expect them to get similar minutes with Bogut maybe playing about 3-5 minutes more per game.

[JTFan31]

Dude if ZaZa can produce as a starting center 12 and 10....well he have just found our future starting center....even if he only averages 1 block per game, we have Mr. Smith that can put those numbers for us and he is our paint intimidator.

I just hope we can find a good backup center for Zaza, and I dont mean Collier nor Arthur Johnson.

[DominiqueWilkins]

I expect Zaza to become a better player every year, and not like guys like Jason Collier. I expect ZaZa to average close or right at 10 rebounds a game, and score around 13-15 ppg.

I'm really excited about Billy Knight adding him, and hopefully the Bucks don't match.

[NickJYD]

Is Stephen Hunter waiting this deal with Zaza out, or is he just taking his sweet time deciding where to go? I would love to have his shot blocking abilities for 15-20 minutes a game.

[Admin]

13-15ppg and 10rpg are asking a ton for a young player who is more of a PF than a C. I think he can be a very good backup at the 4 and 5 and an adequate starter (meaning better than Collier or Ekezie), but I wouldnt expect double figure boards or points...those are Brad Miller numbers and Brad Miller he is not, at least not from what I have seen of him.

What's interesting is that Brad Miller and ZaZa had very similar numbers after their 2nd years in the league. Both about 18 minutes, both about 6-7 points, both about 5 rebounds and both about .5 a block per game. They are also almost the same size as well.

It took Brad until his 4th year before he broke double figures in scoring and his 6th (and only year) before he got double figures in rebounds.

If ZaZa can even come close to putting up Miller numbers I would be thrilled with him. The big question with him will be if he can stretch the D with the ability to hit the elbow shot and if he can play physical D without fouling too much and if he can get us out on the break quickly.

[Traceman]

I wasn't expecting any more points or rebounds than that from Dalembert or Chandler. I would be THRILLED if we could get that from a 21 yr old for more than $54M LESS than we would have had to guarantee to one of those guys.

If ZaZa gives us 8/8/1 as a starter THIS YEAR, he's earning his money and we should be VERY happy. Hopefully he will continue to improve and give us more than that down the road.

[dpic73]

I think expecting him to get ten rebounds is expecting a little too much. There were only eight players in the league that averaged ten or more rebounds a game last season. I would expect him to get seven or eight a game max. That should be plenty since Chill and Smoove are excellent rebounders given their position.

[KB21]

Does anyone else find it questionable that we are talking about a player averaging 8 points and 8 rebounds per game being worth $4 million a season when Dominique Wilkins was averaging 28 points and 7 rebounds per game for the Hawks and never saw a season where he made $4 million?

Boy! Did guys like Dominique come into the league at the wrong time!!

[mrhonline]

Quote:

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I think expecting him to get ten rebounds is expecting a little too much. There were only eight players in the league that averaged ten or more rebounds a game last season. I would expect him to get seven or eight a game max. That should be plenty since Chill and Smoove are excellent rebounders given their position.

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I stand by my numbers, qualifying them, of course, to say that he must be healthy and stay out of foul trouble.

Zaza was one of the better rebounders per48, which is even more impressive when you remember that Gadzuric was one of the best rebounders in the NBA last year.

Looking closely at Zaza's numbers, he actually performed better as he got more minutes. There were many games where he only got 10 minutes but deserved more...

FWIW, he average 8/7 in 25 minutes in games where he got at least 20 minutes. Give him 35 and you should get a double-double with regularity.

[Traceman]

Imagine what Nique in his prime would be worth in today's FA market. He'd probably make more in 2 seasons than he made in his whole career.

[DominiqueWilkins]

I'm thinking Hunter is waiting the ZaZa deal out, but news has it that the Bucks aren't going to match, and Hunter might be on his way to the Mavericks.

[Blunt91]

What happened with Tractor Traylor? Someone posted last week that we were interested in him. I know he is only 6'8 or 6'9 but he can rebound and score a little. Traylor would give us rebounding, Zaza would give us a center who can run the break, and Jason Collier would give us a center who can hit the outside jumper.

[Vol4ever]

but can you imagine paying anybody to average 12/10/1 with 4 fouls, 45% fg, and 75% ft 4 million dollars a year.

I sure wish I was 7-0, could walk and chew gumn at the same time!

[Balls2TheWalls]

As a Bucks fan, I thought I would interject with what happened last year.

Coming off of the bench, when Zaza started getting minutes, he was playing with a certain fire. He had a game where he thoroughly embarassed Yao Ming, and with the rest of the team left to take care of T-Mac, we beat the Rockets by over 30.

Unfortunately, once he started to get sustained minutes, the fire wasn't there. We weren't seeing him leap at the boards the way he did when he wasn't getting minutes.

I think that he can end up putting up 12 and 7, but I think that you will get frustrated with the fact that he isn't developing past that. He could end up being an excellent player because he has a good inside game, D's up, and plays with hustle. Unfortunately, I have a feeling he will end up hitting the breaks when he hits 12 and 7, when he could be better.

[Vol4ever]

I'm sure you will agree that he will be a upgrade from anything we have. It sounds like he is more suitable in limited minutes off the bench.

Thanks for the post

[Final_quest]

Zaza's gonna have to be our guy until we can get our version of Duncan, Garnett, Amare, etc. I think it's a much better solution than overspending on a Dalembert or Chandler who will never become a Mutumbo or Garnett.