Interesting Marvin Williams read Sam Bowie???

[SmooveTheFuture]

I still would have picked Chris Paul all day long but whats done is done. This guy is gonna be better then Isiah Thomas should be an allstar this year.

So good has Chris Paul become through his first 45 games, that there is a growing perception that the three players selected ahead of him are already in danger of joining Sam Bowie in a category no player wants any part of.

First of all, Sam Bowie wasn’t a horrible player. In his rookie season, he averaged 10 points and 8.6 rebounds per game in 76 appearances. He appeared in fewer games over the next three seasons combined (63) and it was then that the Blazers decided to cut their losses and deal him to the Nets (along with the 12th pick that became Mookie ‘Pearl Jam’ Blaylock) for Buck Williams.

Bowie had the most productive season of his career during that first year on a dreadful Nets team that went 17-65. He averaged 14.7 points and 10.1 rebounds per game that season while his former club lost to the Pistons in the Finals. The next two seasons were also productive as he averaged 12.9 and 7.7 and then 15 and 8.1.

The mistake of drafting Bowie has been artificially magnified by Michael Jordan’s once-a-generation career. Drexler, of course, was there already, so it might have been a mistake for the Blazers, who clearly had prioritized the need for a big man, not to select Sam Perkins, Charles Barkley or Kevin Willis, more than the Jordan pass that they are chastised for.

Darko Milicic, another 2nd overall pick, has a long ways to go to even sniff Sam Bowie’s league. Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade are all on their way to having franchise-player careers, but like that Blazers team that went to the Finals twice, the mistake the Pistons made has been far from monumental, as they have already won one championship and are on their way to their third straight Finals appearance. Many have even argued that the presence of a star caliber player like Anthony would have disrupt the development of TayShaun Prince, who at small forward, is the axis of the Pistons dominant starting-five.

The question though is this, how big was the mistake not to select Chris Paul? Three teams passed on the Wake Forest point guard in favor of Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams and Deron Williams.

The Bucks were optimistically counting on T.J. Ford returning and he has, so they are withdrawn from consideration.

Utah’s biggest need was at point guard and they traded up to the third spot and selected one, except not Paul. Deron Williams came out of the gate very strong, averaging 13.6 points per game in November. Like many young point guards that have played for Jerry Sloan in the post-Stockton era (ask Carlos Arroyo and Raul Lopez their opinion of Sloan), Williams has fallen out of favor and has seen his minutes drop and now averages almost 10 mpg less than Paul, though in actuality it has been closer to 15 minutes less per game since the New Year.

For a rookie, comparing life with Byron Scott to life with Jerry Sloan, is like comparing life with Sadie Frost to life with Sienna Miller. One will let you do unequivocally do what you want, while the other is fierce, frustrating and unpredictable. The difference is so striking that if the two point guards were flipped, like Nick Coppola and Vincent Vega in ‘Face/Off,’ Deron Williams' play would look a lot like Paul’s if he were in O. City and vice versa.

The jury will remain out on these two until Williams gets the consistent minutes his play warrants. The Jazz are better with Williams on the floor than not, as their only +20 or more five-man units (see 82games.com) both contain the rookie. Meanwhile, Paul’s net +/- is -5.3, but I’m not exactly sure what’s going on with the +- stats in New Orleans/Oklahoma City as David West’s is -8.4. From what I’ve seen, West and Paul are having unbelievable seasons and are spearheading the Hornets' surprising year more than anyone else.

But like 1984 and 2003, it all goes back to that second pick. With Bowie and Darko in that second pick lexicon are Wayman Tisdale, Len Bias, Shawn Bradley and Jay Williams, and there have been rumblings already that Marvin Williams could join that group, instead of second pick successes like Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, Jason Kidd and Steve Francis.

I hope that this is because of the talent Paul has shown, combined with the Hawks glaring need for a point guard and their wealth of similar players to Williams, than it is their assessment of the former Tar Heel, because that short sightedness is unfair and flat out inacurrate.

I was at the Final Four in April and saw Williams score 8 points and grab 5 boards in the national final against Deron Williams’ Illini and the strides that he has made from then to the times I’ve seen him this year are profound. The strides that he has even made since November have given the Hawks a silent optimism while they endure the ‘Why didn’t you draft Paul?’ backlash.

His shooting percentage has improved each month (37% in November, 44% in December and 49% in January), all the while coach Mike Woodson has kept his minutes consistently around 22 a night. When you adjust his numbers to per 40 minutes, he comes in at 12 and 8.

Marvin’s chosen position remains undefined, though he is clearly a small forward at present, but when Al Harrington is dealt this month, his time at power forward will increase. The Hawks drafted Williams because he has the potential to develop one of the NBA’s best inside/outside games the sport has seen. The mechanics of his shot are as good as most shooting guards and because of this, he can become Rasheed Wallace without the Jail Blazer wrap, he can become Dirk Nowitzki with more explosiveness and he can become Tim Thomas without the apathy. All three of these players are small forward/power forward tweeners and they are so good, Thomas excluded of course, because they create match-up problems for even the best defensive clubs.

In a recent article, I suggested that Rasheed Wallace is the purest shooter at the power forward position that the game has ever seen. In that article, I asked readers to suggest an alternative if they disagreed. I received about a dozen or so emails and all of them said ‘Dirk.’ He can play power forward, but I still think his game is that of a small forward, much the same as Joe Johnson, Williams’ Atlanta teammate, a combo guard who remains more comfortable at the two. As Dirk ages and slows down, he’ll go to the block more and begin the second phase of his career and at that point, I’ll reconsider.

But back to Williams versus Paul, if I was named general manager of the Hawks and could go back to late June of 2005, I would take Chris Paul. I’d select the point guard because the Hawks need a point guard, a selection for need at a position that is the toughest to fill outside of center. It would be a reluctant selection though, because it wouldn’t be who I believe is the B.P.A. and it is when teams draft for need (re: Sam Bowie), where the results are most mixed.

The results will not be mixed for Chris Paul, but nor will they be for Marvin Williams, as he is developing the NBA's next great inside/outside game.

[Diesel]

One note..

Dirk, Rasheed, and Tim T. are all above 6'10". Marvin is 6'8". That makes a big difference. I doubt that Marvin can play Pf.

[Vafan]

Very positive article on Williams potential as as inside/outside force. I really think Williams can be the next Mashburn except that Williams is a more explosive athlete.

[Diesel]

A healthy Mashburn was far far better than Marvin could ever hope to be. For starters, Mashburn could run an offense. Marvin doesn't have the gifts that Mash did. Mash also could score anytime he touched the ball. He was an inside and an outside threat.

All day long, I read these wishlists about Marvin.. Wishing that he could be an inside player. I have yet to see Marvin do anything on the inside. He doesn't have 1 inside move. Chillz has more inside Moves than Marvin. When he was at UNC he didn't display any inside game. I think you just need to stick with MW being a pretty shooting Sf.

He's tim thomas all over again.

[chillzatl]

you can talk crap that you're a Hawks fan and you want him to do good and all that. But that's flat out BS. You're a Marvin HATER. Is it because of the Wake / NC rivalries? Is that what it is?

And stop with teh BS. Mashburn COULD NOT run an offense. HE could be the focal point of an offense. But that is a far cry from "running an offense".

[Diesel]

Please.

I watched Marvin.. Unlike some here. I didn't see what the hype was about. I don't talk BS... If Marvin steps up worthy of his pick... I will applaud him. But I have no hopes that he can.

Why is it hating for me to have an expectation of Marvin?? When you are the highest pick in franchise history... there should be an expectation. We already know what we passed over for Marvin...

Still the Marvin Lovers have NO expectations.

They say " Oh, in 4 yrs, he'll be great".

"Oh, if only we can move Al, Marvin can get more playing time".

Al is not Marvin's problem.. Marvin and Al play different positions. The truth is that Marvin is a disappointment and will be one... What do you expect Chillz..

Another project guy who might come in and give us 15-20 ppg?? Hell, a 2nd pick of the draft should be a star, not some type of complimentary piece!

There's your BS there.

Call me a hater... Call me whatever the hell you want. The truth is that I have EXPECTATION...

Just like when you spend big money on anything, you expect it to perform... Period.

[chillzatl]

You've dogged the kid since day one. Since he was picked you've talked about he he doesn't have this, or doesn't have that. Oddly enough, originally it was limited to him not having the "killer instinct" to be a superstar. Now it's evolved into him not having the ability to be as good as a ball hog chucker like Jamal Mashburn... Considering the similarities in their personalities, I'd think you'd find lots of comparisons between them.

You've over inflated your expectations becuase you don't like Marvin. It's that simple. You were willing to pay Kwame Brown 12-15 million to come here because of his "potential". Even though that potential hasn't panned out ONCE. Yet you've written marvin off already, even though he is better as a rookie, in limited minutes and in a limited role, than Kwame Brown has been in all but one fluke season.

There is nothing disappointing about Marvin. Nobody (except you obviously) ever expected him to come in and drop 20/10 as a rookie. That's obviously the kind of production you've expected out of him. I mean god, 7 and 5 from a guy who only gets 22mpg and doesn't have plays ran for him is just aweful! He was a #2 pick who was little more experience than a HS kid. He definitely deserves more than half a season before he's written off.

He's steadily improving and his production and role has slowly increased over the last month. Stop hating and give him the same level of respect you are willing to give the multitude of other stiffs whose jocks you've ridden over the years that did nothing to deserve it.

[Diesel]

First and foremost, I have been consistent in saying that Marvin doesn't get a pass from me because the media says he's supposed to be great. I watched him play a lot. There wasn't much to brag about.

Secondly, you know I am a Mashburn fan. It's an absolute injustice to Mash's game to compare him and MW. First off, Mash was a Point forward.. Can Marvin do that?? NO. Secondly, Mash had a very strong post up game.. does Marvin? No. Thirdly, Mash could play both forward positions equally well.. Can MW? No.

MW has no inside game, yet the commentators continuously try to suggest that he has one. We need to stop spewing fiction as if it were reality.

My challenge...

Lay down some expectations that you should have for a guy picked 2nd overall in the draft!

Should he be a star, Allstar, or ordinary role player?

Should he be a first, 2nd, 3rd option?

Should he make your team better or not?

[exodus]

Quote:

---

The truth is that Marvin is a disappointment and will be one...

---

If your track record of predictions holds true, Marvin will turn out to be better than Jordan.

[Lascar78]

Quote:

---

you can talk crap that you're a Hawks fan and you want him to do good and all that. But that's flat out BS. You're a Marvin HATER.

---

exactly. It's not worth arguing because he'll just change the subject, but it's clear as day

[macdaddy]

Jeez. not again.

So we missed Paul. Anyone who says they knew he'd be this good is full of BS.

At the same time I'm disappointed in Marvin, but its early and his game is raw. So what.

If you are judging players by their draft position then Bogut is going to be the disappointment. He'll be a good serviceable big man which is great and something we could use, but he's not the superstar you'd expect from the #1 pick.

[Diesel]

Exactly.

Severcible is not something that you want when you pick 1, 2, or 3... Regaurdless of how strong the draft. 1,2, and 3 should be difference makers.

Chris Paul should be an allstar this year. Thats more than serviceable.

All I ask is that somebody sets a standard for Marvin as the #2 pick overall. Marvin Lovers won't dare do this.. I say that's BS...

[Jdawgflow]

This is a very good post/article and I enjoyed reading it. Although Paul has played great, and I sometimes almost get sick to my stomach thinking about passing up on him, I think that Marvin will end this debate soon (i.e. by the middle of next season, provided we trade Al at the deadline this season).

When (hopefully) we trade Al, I do believe that Marvin will start to become our #2 option on the offensive end. It will take some getting used to, but with a little time (by the middle of next season), I have a feeling that some on this board (and many of the haters around the country) will have no choice but to admit that he is going to be a star.

Hey, I could be wrong on this, but I am a hopelessly optomistic Hawks fan that sees a player who he honestly believes will break out sooner rather than later.

PS--for the people that think I just want to trade Al for food items, please understand that I think we need to get soemthing in return. Even so, I think that trading Al is pivotal for our young player's development regardless of what we get back in the trade (unless it is another tweener forward).

[exodus]

One thing I know about Marvin is that he will NEVER let guys shoot layups in his face without trying to stop them. He will contest the shot or give a hard foul.

Al just tries to get out of the way so he won't pick up a foul. That way he can stay in the game and pad his point total. That is his main interest, not winning. If he was trying to win he would at least put his hands in the air when his man is shooting a layup right over him. I can't see spending $8 million/year on someone like that.

[Lascar78]

Quote:

---

I can't see spending $8 million/year on someone like that.

---

Not to mention that he'll probably get around 10

[DJlaysitup]

Quote:

---

One thing I know about Marvin is that he will NEVER let guys shoot layups in his face without trying to stop them. He will contest the shot or give a hard foul.

---

Ex, I would start Marvin for that reason alone. That point needs to be made to all on the Hawks. Of course it has to be a priority for the coach/management first (hopefully it is, but it's hard to tell).

[thesheedera]

Yo Deez, is Deron gonna be better than Paul?

Deez nutz!

[Diesel]

Let's trade Al so that Marvin can flop!!

That's my new stance...

Let's trade Al so that Marvin can flop!!!

[thesheedera]

You would LOVE that Deeznutz, you would absolutely LOVE that.

Hate on hater. Hate hate hate hate hate hate hate.

The rest of us will enjoy watching him grow into everything you hope he will never grow into. A bonafide NBA stud.

Hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate hate!

[Diesel]

You are absolutely right... I would love it and I am going to love it! Trade Al before the deadline...

Al for Petro, Collison, and Potapenko... That's the deal!