Deadline's a coming

[Dragitoff]

With the trading deadline very near, is there still any serious talk of dealing Al before the off-season? I know we've all talked up deals we'd like or wouldn't like to see, but I haven't read any viable sources that are doing anything more than speculating. Can anyone shed any light on this matter for me? Thanks.

[Lascar78]

BK clearly told me that he was not looking to deadline and that unless something unbelievable comes up he won't be traded.

Look for nothing to happen for us, with the only possibility being a delk for 2nd rounder/young guy type deal.

Al will hopefully be SNT'd in the offseason, but don't expect anything before the deadline.

[Dragitoff]

Thanks for the info. I try to read through most of the posts on here, but honestly I don't have enough time and it becomes very difficult to determine what is speculatory and what is factual. I like Al, but I honestly don't see a place for him after this season if they plan on keeping Childress, Smith, and Marvin.

[macdaddy]

I hear what you're saying but it seems awfully quiet. Maybe that means nothing is going on but I don't believe it.

If you look at our inconsistency I think moving Al now makes a lot of sense. It will cement JJ as the undisputed team leader. It will mean more minutes for Smoove and Marvin and give them some added responsibility and confidence going into next year.

I think Al wants to leave and I don't want to ship him for nothing, but I definitely see some big upside to moving him now instead of in the offseason. We just need to get some low post scoring in return.

[exodus]

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moving Al now makes a lot of sense

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which is why it probably won't happen.

[KB21]

The only way moving Al now makes sense is if we are blown away by a deal. We will get a lot more value in return by doing a sign and trade this offseason with him than we will get by doing a midseason trade.

[capstone21]

If Denver does do that trade of Francis for Nene and Kmart. They will be desparate for a post player. Al for Miller suddenly makes sense.

[Spiral]

Will you please expound on that? I'm not stating I don't believe you or anything like that, I just don't see how or why we can get so much more after the season than before the deadline.

[WraithSentinel]

Denver will not trade Miller for Harrington. They will want more in return. I would think Chill and Salim would also have to be included. They won't be able to keep Al with Melo contract coming up. The unknown status of Nene. Do they want to keep him or not?

[Spiral]

I'm not so sure they'd be desperate. Mello has a better post game than Al does. I think they'd want frontline help, but I'm not so sure Al is the type player they'd want.

[Lascar78]

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If you look at our inconsistency I think moving Al now makes a lot of sense.

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but so does not moving him.

To me the only REAL drawback of not making a move now is the risk of flat out losing Al with no compensation. That is a real risk. A minor drawback would be less PT for our youth.

However, there is a real argument to be made for continuity. You can't expect our team to improve when they never have more than 3 months of playing together before a major cog is traded. That is what has happenned year after year. I think that with stability we will see improvement. Let this young team learn how it can get over the hump and win the close games, rather than having to start over from zero and figure out how to play with new roles. That is something they need to learn and will come in handy, even if it's not the exact same team we will have next year. They need to learn how to win.

I would like to see that, and then see Al shipped this summer. I do think that his value will be increased come this offseason, because teams will know exactly what they are trading for (contract wise). That could pay off for us.

So really, if you ignore the risk of flat out losing Al to a team like Chicago, I think it's better to keep Al for just this season. However, it is a big risk because we could lose him for nothing, and BK could end up re-signing him which would be bad for us IMO.

So we'll see if it pays off, but I don't expect a move any time soon

[tmac13]

Not really, they are also giving up Earl Watson in the deal..Unless they plan on playing Franchise at the point they really can't afford to give up Miller.

[DJlaysitup]

I would also look at it from a potential trading partners viewpoint. Most teams operate in a win-now mode and Al could be the piece that they might need to put them in the playoffs or make them more competitive moving through the playoffs. In their case I would think Al is more attractive now than he would be later. There might not be that "perfect" deal but at least we would nix the risk of a total loss to free agency. I realize all say that the total loss risk isn't that great but what if it comes to the off season and some of the teams currently interested look in other directions.

I mean, does it really matter that we can out-pay any other team for Al if they don't see him as worth the huge contract and figure "oh well, let Atlanta do a sign and keep". Maybe I'm missing something here - but if Al isn't valued as a max-type player, why would another team want to do a "sign and trade to overpay" deal? They could either let us keep him...or more likely offer a medium deal knowing that we really want to move him to make room for Marvin and won't match? Any thoughts?

NBA Texas holdem GM poker

[Lascar78]

well the thing is that he's not a restricted free agent. If a team can sign him to a deal under the cap, he's out of here regardless of what we want. But I think that most teams interested in him other than Chicago could probably agree on a price with him that will be less than the max, but more than they can offer outright because they are over the cap. So even at a reasonable price, they HAVE to get us to do a SNT that we agree to, and give us something in return. So really, unless a team like Chicago can sign him, it looks good for us.

Odds are Al won't get the max from anyone

Odds are he will want more than we can give him

Odds are someone will be willing to pay him more than us

Odds are that team can't sign him outright

BUT the huge wildcard is chicago

There is a chance that some contender thinks he will put them over the edge and gives us a great deal right now, but I still think they'd give less for a 6 month rental than they would for a young veteran who can contribute for 6 years.

[exodus]

The team where Al fits the best is actually NOK. Desmond Mason is horrible. They need scoring and they already play good D. Al wants to play the 3 and Mason only has one year left after this one.

I never realized that Mason sucked until this year. I have watched a few of their games to see what Paul is up to. Offensively mason is the worst. His shot is even uglier, and much less effective, than Marion or Childress. That trade was very lopsided but it has been covered up because they have been playing well.

I don't think Al would like to play for NOK though.

[DJlaysitup]

Hypothetically thinking...what if the Al interest isn't as much come off-season. Then some GM who BK has p!ssed off (and has some money to spend) thinks - well we'll offer Al $XX million (which is a little morethan other teams are interested in paying/or can) - and either we get him for that price or ATL outbids us and they can just keep him.

[Lascar78]

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Hypothetically thinking...what if the Al interest isn't as much come off-season. Then some GM who BK has p!ssed off (and has some money to spend) thinks - well we'll offer Al $XX million (which is a little morethan other teams are interested in paying/or can) - and either we get him for that price or ATL outbids us and they can just keep him.

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but the thing is that most teams can't even offer him a half-decent contract without doing a SNT.

Either way, if we end up signing AL for a reasonable price (i.e. 8 million a year), I'd be fine with that because he's highly tradable at that price. The bottom line is that if Al re-signs, someone has to be traded. If he has a big contract, he'll be hard to trade, and one of our young guns has to go, probably one of the joshes. If he has a small contract, he could be the most tradable and valuable of the lot.

[Lascar78]

desmond mason is just having a horrible year. He's not a bad player though. Last year he was averaging 17/4/3. Not bad for a SF. I think Al would fit well in NO, not sure if he'd want to go to the uncertain NO / OKC situation, given that he has the choice of where to go. I suppose it could make sense for NO to sign Al. Dez makes 8 mil next year but then he comes off the books. I guess if they were willing to invest in NO they would most likely want to SNT him for Mason at best given that they can sign Al outright. Looks like keeping Al could be a big risk after all. It depends on what Al is telling BK, and how important it is to go to a proven winner. If he's not interested in Chicago, NO, or Charlotte and they're not too interested in him, we should be ok.

[Diesel]

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Will you please expound on that? I'm not stating I don't believe you or anything like that, I just don't see how or why we can get so much more after the season than before the deadline.

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Although the question wasn't mine to answer, I do have an answer.

Right now, the only teams that can deal for Al are teams that have a player that is 6 million dollars. That's very few and of those few teams...

FEW of those are willing to give us anything close to Al's value because Al is an unsigned Unrestricted Free Agent at the end of the season. It's unlikely that Al would sign an extension (although that's just where the market might put him later)... SO that means that a team that trades for Al can only expect to get the next 3 months with very little strings attached... Meaning that if Al doesn't like the environment or the managment, he can leave and leave that team with nothing.. ALA Danny Manning.

However, in the summer, we can do a SNT.

What that does is:

1. Give the team getting Al some guarantees.

2. Open up the pool of people who would bid for Al.

3. Al's larger salary brings home a larger salary.

All in all, these work together to give us a BETTER value for Al in trade.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

That team has a damn good shot at making the playoffs next year.

Al wouldn't want to go to a playoff team with a PG that could make him an even more potent scorer?