Parallels between 95 and 05 drafts

[b3bawla]

I've read a lot about the mistake of the Hawks on drafting Marvin Williams (the supposed BPA) over Chris Paul. Hey, I understand you guys' point. But check this out. Maybe this draft will be a lot like the 1995 draft.

95 Draft

05 Draft

In the 95 draft, Minnesota drafted a kid who shot up the draft boards based on potential. They passed up on a very good point guard from Arizona names Damon Stoudamire (Stoudamire averaged 22 pts, 7 ast, and 4 rbs as a senior in college). Who was the starting pg at the time for Minnesota? A 32 year old Terry Porter. They needed a pg. But they drafted KG. That's very similar to what the Hawks did in 05, drafting a kid who had some great workouts in Marvin Williams over a proven pg (Paul), when we needed a point guard.

Stoudamire got drafted two spots later by Toronto and had maybe even a better year than Paul (Damon averaged 19.0 points, 9.3 assists, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.4 steals). KG's initial numbers were very modest in comparison (10.4 points, 6.3 boards, 1.8 assists, 1.6 blocks, and 1.1 steals). Inititially, it looked like Minnesota should have gone with the pg. Now...not so much.

Lets compare Marvin to KG and Paul to Stoudamire. Paul averaged 16.1 points, 5.1 boards, 7.8 assists, and 2.2 steals. Darn good numbers, you gotta admit (but not as good as Damon's). But Marvin's 8.5 points and 4.8 boards isn't bad. Look at this. Per 40 minutes KG averaged 14.6 points, 8.7 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 2.3 blocks as a rookie. Marvin averaged 13.7 points, 7.8 boards, 1.3 assists, 1 steal and half a block per 40 minutes. That's pretty doggone comparable.

The point guys is that maybe...just maybe, a year is a little too early to actually evaluate a draft. Stoudamire's best year was his second one, and since then (while he's had a nice career) it's been downhill. KG got better and better for 10 straight years. Hopefully, Marvin will be able to do that (as he did finish the season drastically better than how he started it). And maybe Paul will hit his apex in his first 4 or 5 years. As of now...it's FAR too early to tell.

[dalamchops]

only time will tell

[gsuteke]

the argument you'll get on this board is KG's 4 or 5 inches taller than Marvin.

[Packfill]

Only time will tell. But what if the 2005 draft parallels the 1999 draft where Charlotte took stud college point guard Baron Davis and passed on high school phenom Jonathan Bender, whom Indy took two picks later?

Now, Baron is a little overrated but he certainly has more value then Bender.

A bigger problem with your analogy is that in 1995 while Stoudamire was an experienced college player, Garnett was a high schooler. In 2005, Paul came out after his sophmore year, and is only a year older the Marvin, who had the benefit of playing a year of college ball - rather then being a totally green high schooler.

Point is, we do not know.

[Lascar78]

Interesting post. I'm pretty sure just about everyone but 2 people on this board still recognize that Marvin can still easily end up being the best player out of his draft.

[Diesel]

Marvin is no Kevin Garnett.

Time will tell this... but homerism is very high. I mean we're getting utterly ridiculous on this board.

First we're saying that JJ is more valuable than KG.

Next we're saying that Marvin will be the next KG?

If we were all that, why did we have only 26 wins??

Oh.. Let me guess.. It was Al's fault!!

I guess next year, will be Zaza's fault or Childress' fault because he's holding Marvin back!

It's simply amazing.

[Lascar78]

Ummmm ... perhaps you're unaware that Marvin was a rookie? KG's record as a rookie you ask? 26 wins

[Diesel]

So I guess Chris Paul must be the next Micheal Jordan since in Jordan's first year, he took Chicago from Losing to 39 wins too!

That's brilliant.

[Lascar78]

I never said Marvin would be KG.

You implied that it was impossible for Marvin to be as good as KG because if he was we would have more that 26 wins. To which I responded that KG won the same amount of games his rookie year, so your point is null and void.

Duh.

But hey it's easier to pretend that I said that Marvin was KG part II because of our record huh? Do you ever have an honest argument?

The point is that Marvin was a known project, and that no matter how good he will be in the long run, it is not surprising at all that he didn't help us win at all in year 1. You're the only one who thought we would be winning 40 games. I was fine with drafting Marvin, and after getting JJ, I predicted 25 wins. We got 26. A slow learning curve was expected for marvin.

[drzachary]

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I never said Marvin would be KG.

You

implied that it was impossible for Marvin to be as good as KG because if he was we would have more that 26 wins. To which

I

responded that KG won the same amount of games his rookie year, so your point is null and void.

Duh.

But hey it's easier to pretend that I said that Marvin was KG part II because of our record huh? Do you ever have an honest argument?

The point is that Marvin was a known project, and that no matter how good he will be in the long run, it is not surprising at all that he didn't help us win at all in year 1. You're the only one who thought we would be winning 40 games. I was fine with drafting Marvin, and after getting JJ, I predicted 25 wins. We got 26. A slow learning curve was expected for marvin.

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Can we just ban all talk of Marvin already? This is just f*****g ridiculous.

[b3bawla]

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the argument you'll get on this board is KG's 4 or 5 inches taller than Marvin.

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He is now...but KG was actually 6'11 then.

And of course Marvin isn't KG. But neither was KG when he was a rookie. Did KG come in averaging 25, 14, and 6. NO!

All I said was let's try to remain patient in evaluating Marvin and I gave a parallel that shows what could legitimatly happen. I never actually said that Marvin Williams is going to be just as good as KG. But, heck he could be better.

The point is that NOBODY except God actually knows the future. Did you think the BUlls actually thought Jordan was going to be the greatest player ever? Of course not.

It was just a parrallel guys. Relax.

[b3bawla]

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Only time will tell. But what if the 2005 draft parallels the 1999 draft where Charlotte took stud college point guard Baron Davis and passed on high school phenom Jonathan Bender, whom Indy took two picks later?

Now, Baron is a little overrated but he certainly has more value then Bender.

A bigger problem with your analogy is that in 1995 while Stoudamire was an experienced college player, Garnett was a high schooler. In 2005, Paul came out after his sophmore year, and is only a year older the Marvin, who had the benefit of playing a year of college ball - rather then being a totally green high schooler.

Point is, we do not know.

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Very Very True

[KB21]

There are a lot on this board that don't understand that.

[Lascar78]

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Can we just ban all talk of Marvin already? This is just f*****g ridiculous.

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Just when I thought I was out ... THEY PULL ME BACK IN

You're right of course though

[b3bawla]

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and find something similar to this in everyone. We could go with the 98 draft and say Olowakandi was drafted on potential then next you had the experienced Bibby and call this similar to the Marvin v.s. Paul. You could also go in that same draft that Dirk was drafted on potential and Robert Tractor Traylor or Bryce Drew was based on experience for the other side of the Marvin v.s. Paul debate. Comparing drafts does not do anything for this whole argument.

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That may be true, but going into the 98 draft MIN still had Stephon Marbury on the roster (he was traded in 99 after playing 18 games). Thus, they didn't need a point guard the way that we needed one in 05, or MIN needed one in 95.

Anyway, this post was just food for thought, a brain teaser that gives Hawks fans tangible reasons to be hopeful. So shoot me for trying to share my hope.

[Nicholasp27]

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Can we just ban all talk of Marvin already? This is just f*****g ridiculous.

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u should have Diesel arrested for annoying you anonymously over the internet!

[AHF]

I'll say that I find the Stoudemire comparison to Paul closer than the Marvin comparison to KG in terms of stats and actual game. It is worthwhile to think about but the comparison doesn't do much for me.