Would you swap Smith for Biedrins?

[HawkItus]

what's the big deal about balancing the roster......I think the idea is to find mismatches and exploit them.

Horford- matches up with everybody in our conference except dwight howard.

Smith- Besides Garnett and Bosh, he eats almost every other PF's lunch in the east

Marv- Okay I admit, we get nothing here ha ha.

JJ- Can hang with pretty much any SG in the east, can physically abuse 75% of them in the post

Bibby- again no real gain here.

to me the issue is that we don't have players who can exploit in the 3 and 1 spot. To me if we let anyone go its Bibby and Marvin when their contracts are up. Sign and trade whatever. Don't take your pluses and turn them into possible negatives

Biedrins- Average center at best. Still gets eat'n by Dwight. Doesn't have a significant edge over anybody else.

Horford- Good power forward, but Garnett, Bosh, Beasley, Smith if he goes to Philly, give him trouble

Marvin- moving on

JJ- Still a beast, but he has to carry more of an offensive load again

Bibby- _________

[Peoriabird]

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We bring in a consistent, young legit Center to man the 5 spot.

What make Biedrins a better center than Horfort?

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Biedrins is only 22 years old, consistent, and puts up the aforementioned 10/10/2.

I know that you are not claiming that he consistently blocks 2 shots per game because he has never done it. By the way, his career ppg/rpg average is 7.6/7.4 hardly 10/10

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Our interior defense improves.

What statistical evidence can you present to support this claim?

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Did I mention he is only 22? He will get better just like most young guys. But to put up those number already at his age, at one of the toughest positions in the NBA, is a good sign.

He has been in the league 4 years same as Smith. Josh Smith is also 22 but puts up better numbers! Horfort is 22 puting up the same numbers in his 1st year in the league at the same position! So what is so special about this guy?

[crimedog]

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The Horford/Biedrins combo would most certainly match (or be damn close to) the combo of Horford/Smith but the big difference is that we would be a lot more balance because Biedrins would stay in the paint where he belongs. No worries about him moving out to jack up 3's. Sure we won't have as many "exciting" plays but we will be a lot more fundamentally sound.

I think that there are definitely positives to having Biedrins here, even at the expense of Smith. The prospect of Biedrins "staying in the paint where he belongs" isn't necessarilly one of them.

We play at much slower pace than the Warriors, they take more possessions early in the shot clock than we do. Biedrins gets about half of his shots early in the clock and if its after that, he is getting assisted almost 19 times out of 20. Smith doesn't get nearly as may shots early in the clock and he doesn't get assisted nearly as much later. We don't have the luxury of letting Smith play under the basket full time because Childress doesn't play on perimeter at all and Al doesn't play aggressive when he is facing up. If we did have that luxury, I'd imagine we would play him under the basket because he is a lot more accurate around there.

Imagine the offense with Biedrins, Horford, and Chil all under the basket waiting for one of their guys to double Joe, it would probably be less efficient than it is now...

Biedrins is a better rebounder though, on both sides of the ball. I see that being the point of primary advantage.

[Admin]

I don't anticipate the lineup of Biedrins, Horford, and Childress being our primary lineup so I would expect that Marvin would be settling in his mid-range comfort zone with Bibby and JJ deeper.

I'd like to think that if we had better perimeter shooting Smoove would stay inside more but I'm not convinced of that. I think he really wants to be known as a guy that can shoot the 3 and will keep doing it regardless of who else we have on the team.

In addition to our rebounding improving, I think our defense will also improve because we won't be caught out of position and trying to help quite so much. I love Smoove and his blocks but when he lets the guy get past him and tries to block it from behind that forces Horford to react and help and even if it's only for an instant that gives Horfords man an advantage.

[Diesel]

No.

Smith means too much to the team because he's good and he's from the city of Atlanta to toss away casually.

[TheTruth]

I'm going to have to go, but I will say this: Stop statistically comparing Smith and Biedrins...they dont play the same position! How many times does this have to be said? So stop doing it.

Oh, and Horford is nice at Center, but most believe he is a true PF playing out of position who could flourish even more as a PF. Biedrins, altho a decent Center like Horford, allows Horford to make that transition.

And lastly, Biedrins does not play near the minutes that Smith plays, so directly comparing the averages without the adjustment is ridiculous as well.

[Admin]

Please explain how trading him for Biedrins is tossing him away casually.

Who would you trade him for assuming that we had to make a trade?

[crimedog]

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I don't anticipate the lineup of Biedrins, Horford, and Childress being our primary lineup so I would expect that Marvin would be settling in his mid-range comfort zone with Bibby and JJ deeper.

I'd like to think that if we had better perimeter shooting Smoove would stay inside more but I'm not convinced of that. I think he really wants to be known as a guy that can shoot the 3 and will keep doing it regardless of who else we have on the team.

In addition to our rebounding improving, I think our defense will also improve because we won't be caught out of position and trying to help quite so much. I love Smoove and his blocks but when he lets the guy get past him and tries to block it from behind that forces Horford to react and help and even if it's only for an instant that gives Horfords man an advantage.

... that doesn't happen nearly as much as people make it seem. Horford rarely helps on those anyway... most of Smith's blocks come because Marv/Chil/Bibby/Al get beat. Don't make it seem like Biedrins would improve our defense, that is ridiculous.

On offense, you might be right but that's purely speculation right now. What isn't speculation is that Smith is put into a role of "shot creator" in the half-court and swapping him out with a guy who is purely an around the net finisher would require a completely different offense.

Similarly, whether or not Smith wants to be known as a deadeye shooter (or just a shooter) is up for debate, whether he is obviously designated as a kickout guy when Chil is on the floor isn't up for debate - you might want him to exhibit better judgement from that position but I don't think we should have a guy that only hits 30% of his jumpers as the kickout guy on the wing (I don't blame Woody for this necessarilly, you can only make do with what you have).

I would wonder what might happen if Smith got to GSW and was played in a role similar to Biedrins. They'd love what he brought to the interior defense and he would be able to finish in transition and move around in all the space created by the GS shooters.

[Guest Walter]

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I know that might sound crazy but Josh Smith seems to be the type of player that the Warriors covet and he is young and talented enough to give up Biedrins for ... who is also very young and talented.

I love Smith. Still, I would consider it with Pietrus. I'm not sure how Biedrin's game within GS's system would translate elsewhere. Alot of shots go up for GS and somebody has got to rebound them. Moreover, they do not have another rebounder on the team. This could inflate his stats.

W

[Diesel]

Biedrins is not that good. Moreover, you disappoint the only fanbase you have if you trade away Smoove for somebody who is not an allstar or not even close.

If you wanted Biedrins, you should have traded up with cash for Lopez or Jawaii.

[Peoriabird]

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Biedrins is a better rebounder though, on both sides of the ball. I see that being the point of primary advantage.

Actually, he is not a better defensive rebounder than Smith.

[DavidSomerset]

Baron is a top 4 PG in the league, and ever since he lost weight, he has been healthy.

Biedrins is a VERY good defender at the 5.

Josh Smith is my favorite player, but Al Horford is going to end up being consistently better at the 4.

Baron/Law

JJ/ Richardson

Marvin/Chillz

Horford/FA big??

Biedrins/Zaza

That is not only one of the best teams in the EC, but one of the better teams in the league.

If Marvin learned to shoot 3's we'd be golden.

[Swish]

Someone just remind me to stay the heck away from whatever Dol is smoking!

[crimedog]

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Biedrins is a better rebounder though, on both sides of the ball. I see that being the point of primary advantage.

Actually, he is not a better defensive rebounder than Smith.

I was going by rebound rate...

Although GSW is the worst defensive rebounding team in the league (we aren't much better but Al and Josh are actually above average for their positions, no one else on the team is though) and the second most prolific Drebounder on their team is Al Harrington so I do think Josh would snag a few more in that high octane, low teamate environ.

[DavidSomerset]

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Biedrins is a better rebounder though, on both sides of the ball. I see that being the point of primary advantage.

Actually, he is not a better defensive rebounder than Smith.

How do you figure that?

In less MPG, Biedrins got 6.4 rpg defensively compared to Smoove's 6.2....

[Peoriabird]

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Biedrins is a better rebounder though, on both sides of the ball. I see that being the point of primary advantage.

Actually, he is not a better defensive rebounder than Smith.

How do you figure that?

In less MPG, Biedrins got 6.4 rpg defensively compared to Smoove's 6.2....

Again, you are not factoring in the number of possessions per game by each team. GS probably averages 10-15% more possession per game than the Hawks. Plus Smith is playing along side of a 10 rpg player while Biedrins is not.

[mrhonline]

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I would love that but I'm not sure how that works (or if it does) with both Smith and Biedrins being restricted and BYC.

Where are MrH and BKMullinsFanatic when you need them?

It's possible, but you would have to add a LOT more salary to the deal to get things to work out. And, by adding salary, you're probably going to throw the value off-balance.

What's more likely is this same swap one year from now.

(That said, Golden State has two athletic forwards already, and doesn't need Smith).

[bronnt]

Okay, when I first saw the thread topic (and this subject has been broached before, here) my thought was "No, no, and Hell No." But I did look a bit closer.

I apologize for the long response here, and I know that most people won't read the whole thing-I seldom read extremely long posts myself unless they particularly engage me. I've got some statistical information garnered from various places. If you're really interested in my opinion, I'll say ahead of time that no, I would not trade Josh Smith for Biedrins straight up, but would consider it if there were more involved.

The first point that I had to check out was rebounding. I assumed that playing the golden State system inflated Biedrins' rebounding statistics-they have more possessions per game, so more rebounds to go around. I in fact thought that Josh Smith might be a better rebounder than Biedrins. However, I discovered that Biedrins' minutes are pretty limited. In order to normalize for both pace and playing time, you have to look at rebounding percentage. Rebounding percentage refers to the percentage of available rebounding opportunities that a player secured while on the floor. Hopefully no more explanation is needed. Numbers taken from basketball-reference.com.

Last season

Josh Smith: OR= 6.6%, DR= 20.4% Total= 13.5%

Andris Biedrins: OR= 12.7%, DR= 26.2% Total= 19.1%

So Biedrins is a better rebounder than Josh Smith-as you'd expect from someone who's an effective center. Just for comparison, here's Al Horford:

OR= 11.4%, DR= 24.5%, Total= 18.0%.

So Biedrins would be an immediate upgrade at center in terms of rebounding. But that's assuming that Al Horford doesn't show any improvement in his second season, which is a bit of a stretch. Almost all players who average 20+ minutes per game show improvement into their second season.

In terms of offensive impact, the disturbing trend for Biedrins is that he is assisted on 72% of his field goal attempts. Playing with some quality guard who can create, like Baron Davis, will elevate your offensive impact. But the good news for Biedrins is that he hits a high percentage of his shot attempts-63%. Much better than 46% of Josh Smith attempts. But Josh Smith makes up for the difference by creating more than 40% of his interior makes on his own.

So you have two young players-one takes too many bad shots, and one can't really create his own shot. I'm taking the kid that takes bad shots over the one who can't create (in terms of pure offensive impact) any day at all. You should conceivably be able to coach a player into limited his bad shot attempts (all evidence to the contrary).

I'll just throw this out there right now, since there's no place else to put it. John Hollinger's PER is a decent way of rating player efficiency. I don't think it's perfect-no single statistical measure is perfect-but I do like it. For comparison's sake, Josh Smith's PER is 19.0 and Biedrins' PER is 19.2.

Now defensively. This is the most tricky thing to measure, since you have plenty of stats that track the creation of turnovers, like blocks and steals, but there's no way to statistically measure a guy denying an entry pass, or forcing a bad shot, or forcing a timeout to be called, or a thousand other things (like being the OTHER guy involved in a trap, the one who doesn't end up with the steal).

What I like to look at, and I certainly don't take this as the be-all end-all in defensive measures, for which there is none, is defensive efficiency. Defensive efficiency is the number of points a team allows per 100 defensive possessions. The problem with using this for an individual player is that you can't really look at it independent of the talent around them. A good player on a team with good depth, or a bad player on a bad team, won't see as much impact as a good player on a team with poor depth or a bad player on a good team. That is, the closer the talent level of everyone around you is to your own, the less drastic your team's efficiency numbers will be.

But I look at the efficiency numbers for Josh Smith, and he is one of the few Atlanta players who creates a large difference in defensive efficiency for Atlanta. Atlanta is 7 points better in defensive efficiency with Josh Smith ON the floor. Golden State, on the other hand, is 2.6 points better in defensive efficiency with Biedrins ON the floor. 4.4 points is a fairly large difference, and both players got enough playing time that I'm going to conclude that Josh Smith is a better defensive player than Biedrins, though I'm not sure by how much. It's an inaccurate measure, but I'll live with that assesment. Smith takes away some baskets that are so absolutely sure things, so I can live with it.

Much of the previous information was taken from 82games.com

Finally, there's the talk of age. Josh Smith is a whopping four months older than Andris Biedrins. They are both entering their fifth seasons. There's no way that age should really be considered a factor between these two players.

To sum everything up:

I like Biedrins' ability to be efficient on offense, but I worry about his ability to score on a team without a great point guard. Josh Smith has shown he can score on teams with various different levels of talent at point guard. I'd like to him to be more efficient on offense, but I hope he can grow into that.

I'm taking Josh Smith on defense at this point. A lot of people think of him as making the flashy highlights but not really being a good defensive player. At this point in his career, he continues to make the flashy plays but there's some actual substance in his defensive game. He's the defensive player we have and we'd be hard-pressed to replace his defensive impact.

Biedrins is the better rebounder. You can explain by pointing out that Josh Smith spends too much time on the perimeter or whatever, but with Horford at PF and Biedrins at C, I guarantee we'd be a better rebounding team. Biedrins rebounded at a higher rate than KG did last year, and was fairly comparable to Andrew Bynum or Emeka Okafor.

It's a closer call than I anticipated, but Smith is slightly more valuable than Biedrins. And when you factor in Al Horford and compare him, you realize he does everything ALMOST as well as Biedrins (except score efficiently), and was only a rookie last year, so improvement is almost guaranteed. Basically, Biedrins wouldn't really improve the roster.

[NJHAWK]

Smith for Biedrins and Monte Ellis.

[Chris18]

Beans' numbers are overrated because he plays in a system where quick shots are the norm and it allows him easy and more chances to get rebounds in less minutes. There is just no way that I would trade Smoove for him because Beans will never replace what Josh gives us.