Josh Smith Talk From Golden State

[NJHAWK]

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Josh Smith, Josh Smith, Josh Smith: The Warriors chatter that won’t die, but it probably should

Posted by Tim Kawakami on August 4th, 2008 at 6:22 am | Categorized as NBA, Warriors

* Note: Headed back up to Napa for the Raiders-49ers all day two-practice tussle, so once again, I’m not sure what I can post and if I can post while up there. Probably zippo.

So I’m advance-posting this one and hopefully Chris Mullin and Rick Sund prove me wrong even as I chat up Al D. and the Two JYs on the sidelines (more likely it’ll be Nobody and Nobodies)…

Let’s face it, Josh Smith is still out there as an unsigned restricted free agent, and as long as he is, there will be chatter that the Warriors must/can/will/have already acquire(d) him for some package that must inevitably include Brandan Wright and Al Harrington.

It’s a law of the great interwebs, this I know.

Also, Smith’s rights are controlled by the Hawks, and, as is always the case with the Atlantans, things tend to take forever and ever and ever… which means Josh will probably remain out there for way longer than he needs to be.

I’ve been e-mailed about the JSmith-Warriors talk. I’ve had friends ask me, several times. I’ve done a little speculating myself (way, way at the start of free agency, when I proposed him as a F/A target once the Warriors lost Baron Davis)…

And, since that initial wondering back in early July, my consistent answer has been: JOSH SMITH IS NOT COMING TO THE WARRIORS.

I really believe that now, despite his potential availability and the theoretical chance that he is the right kind of big man for the Warriors (since the Warriors are always looking for big men, aren’t they?).

But at this relatively serene point after the Warriors’ all-time tumultous July, I think it’s time I put down why I believe Smith isn’t going to be coming to the Warriors (and am counting on Mullin to make me look horrendous almost immediately).

I’ll supply 7 Reasons Why Josh Smith Won’t Be Moving to the Warriors This Summer:

1. The Warriors are (at least) one excellent player short of sure-fire playoff contention… but I’m not at all sure that Smith is That Player.

In fact, I think the Warriors do not believe he is that player. Smith is only 22 and he does many good things (big-time shot-blocker, decent rebounder, OK passer, can run the floor and finish) but he’s a career 44.5% shooter and that is not exactly your definition of a low-post scorer.

Which leads right to…

2. Smith is probably not worth giving up Wright–whom the Warriors love, remember–and giving away Harrington–whom Mullin loves.

The Warriors believe Wright, who is two years younger, will end up doing many of the same things Smith does now, but more efficiently and definitely more inexpensively (for now).

And as I’ve typed often, Mullin isn’t giving Harrington away, even if Don Nelson would like him to. If Mullin is going to give up Wright and Harrington, he’s going to want someone he’s sure can get him into the playoffs and maybe win him a round.

Josh Smith isn’t that guy.

Which leads to…

3. Smith’s contract would be huge–possibly larger than the 6-year, $66M deal the Warriors just gave Monta Ellis, and I believe it’s very important to Monta that he’s the highest-paid Warriors player.

VERY IMPORTANT to Monta. I cannot emphasize that one any more than I already have.

The Warriors carefully kept Corey Maggette’s F/A deal and Andris Biedrins’ RFA deal under Ellis’ deal. That was market rate (or in Maggette’s case, slightly above), but it also gave Mullin room to come on top of them both with Ellis’ deal.

4. Smith’s deal, probably at more than $11M a year, would screw up the Warriors’ finances into the future–and again, they have carefully planned to give themselves room in the future.

We go back to that issue–is Smith That Player? Is he Brand, KG or a Young Baron? No, he’s not that good.

The Warriors are trying to set themselves up to have lots of young talent and have room next season to add one more big salary, if that’s the guy who coalesces everything, the way KG did for Boston and Steve Nash did for Phoenix a few years ago.

I’ll say it again: Josh Smith isn’t that guy, not when they’ve already spent $50M on Maggette, $54M on Biedrins, $17M on Ronny Turiaf and $66M on Ellis.

5. Smith doesn’t quite fit the Warriors’ system, either.

He could fit it, I guess. That’s not out of the question. But ideally, a Nellie big man either can shoot threes or can score at a high % on the low post or can stuff the other team’s monster big man.

I’m not sure Smith does any of those things. He’s not an on-ball smother guy–he likes to guard weaker offensive players and then come swooping in to swat the shots from the better players. He’s not a great jumpshooter, but he likes to shoot. Too much.

He put up 99 three-pointers last year and made 25. He also is a high-turnover guy–3 per game last year. That’s no good. (Harrington and Biedrins were both at 1.1 TOs/game last year. Ellis was 2.1) In a fast system, that, to me, equals a potential tall 39% shooter with 4.5 TOs a game.

Al Horford did most of the tough stuff last year in Atlanta–now Horford would be a very excellent Warriors’ addition. I’d give up Wright, Harrington and practically anybody else on the roster (except Ellis and Randolph) for Horford.

Al Horford could be That Player. (Horford: 1.7 TOs/per.) But he’s not a free agent and he’s assuredly not available.

6. I don’t think Atlanta would accept the Wright/Harrington package, even if it’s sweetened.

The Hawks are dumb, but they’ve already lost RFA Josh Childress to a Greek team. They built a high level (for them) of excitement last season around Smith, Horford, Joe Johnson, Childress and a little bit of Mike Bibby.

It’d be awful if they lost both Childress and Smith, playing a RFA system in which almost nobody loses high-quality RFAs. You’re not supposed to lose RFAs that are stars. They lost one. They’re not going to lose Smith and it’ll take more than Brandan Wright–I think–to pry Smith loose.

7. I think the Warriors are happy with what they’ve accomplished after losing Baron. Chris Mullin will never say he’s done… but he’s basically done for the summer.

-They’re not offering Wright to anybody: He’s their power forward of the future next to Randolph and Biedrins on the frontline.

-They’re not giving Harrington away. He’s the only proven spot-up three-point shooter on the roster, unless you count Marcus Williams and I don’t.

-They want to see what their current roster settles out to be. Right now:

C: Biedrins, Turiaf, possibly Perovic.

PF: Harrington, Wright, Hendrix.

SF: Jackson, Randolph.

SF/SG: Maggette, Belinelli, Azubuike.

PG: Ellis, Williams, possibly Watson.

Mix and match here: Smith is good, but Nelson won’t play him with Biedrins–way too similar. So you have to play Smith with Harrington or with Turiaf.

I guess there are some theories out there that the Warriors could be trading Biedrins to the Hawks (can’t be traded for 60 days after signing, however). THAT IS WRONG. Biedrins would never agree to a deal that would end up sending him to Atlanta in two months and his agent would torch the Warriors if they did it without his knowledge.

Those deals never happen like that, I promise you.

It’s not happening. The Warriors are basically done. They’re not in the Josh Smith hunt. Now I can’t wait for Mullin to make a fool out of me before the Raiders-Niners night practice.

Edited August 5, 2008 by NJHAWK

[Admin]

Other than him saying we already lost a star in Childress it's really difficult to argue with his points, although the Warriors do seem like the type of team that would make a trade for him.

[ATLBob]

Other than him saying we already lost a star in Childress it's really difficult to argue with his points, although the Warriors do seem like the type of team that would make a trade for him.

Yeah, but that's a pretty big screw-up.

Diesel needs to phone this guys credibility and find out wtf.

[Admin]

Yeah, but that's a pretty big screw-up.

Diesel needs to phone this guys credibility and find out wtf.

It's only a screw up if the Hawks actually wanted Childress to return ... and maybe they did, but certainly not for much more than the MLE. The part that I disagreed with was the star part as Childress is far from being a star. Certainly underrated, but definitely not a star.

[AnnArborHawk]

I’m not sure Smith does any of those things. He’s not an on-ball smother guy–he likes to guard weaker offensive players and then come swooping in to swat the shots from the better players. He’s not a great jumpshooter, but he likes to shoot. Too much.

He put up 99 three-pointers last year and made 25. He also is a high-turnover guy–3 per game last year. That’s no good. (Harrington and Biedrins were both at 1.1 TOs/game last year. Ellis was 2.1) In a fast system, that, to me, equals a potential tall 39% shooter with 4.5 TOs a game.

Al Horford did most of the tough stuff last year in Atlanta–now Horford would be a very excellent Warriors’ addition. I’d give up Wright, Harrington and practically anybody else on the roster (except Ellis and Randolph) for Horford.

Al Horford could be That Player. (Horford: 1.7 TOs/per.) But he’s not a free agent and he’s assuredly not available.

A thousand times YES!

[Zone034life]

A thousand times YES!

Yeah lets trade Smoove for Al Harrington. He plays defense so good and he isn't a tweener like Smoove. Plus Brandon Wright wow. He has ideal size to play in the paint and he had a great season last year. Those two answers all the Hawks problems. Smoove can't shoot anyways.

[macdaddy]

The Hawks are dumb, but they’ve already lost RFA Josh Childress to a Greek team. They built a high level (for them) of excitement last season around Smith, Horford, Joe Johnson, Childress and a little bit of Mike Bibby.

Getting dissed by Golden State. Priceless

[Flight]

I couldn't see Smith as a warrior anyways

[AnnArborHawk]

Yeah lets trade Smoove for Al Harrington. He plays defense so good and he isn't a tweener like Smoove. Plus Brandon Wright wow. He has ideal size to play in the paint and he had a great season last year. Those two answers all the Hawks problems. Smoove can't shoot anyways.

If you read the section I quoted, I was supporting the talk that Smith was an average on-ball defender who likes to swoop in for the weakside block and that Al Horford is valued more by other teams. But I like the sarcasm, nice touch.

Edited August 5, 2008 by StlAtlHawks

[Zone034life]

If you read the section I quoted, I was supporting the talk that Smith was an average on-ball defender who likes to swoop in for the weakside block and that Al Horford is valued more by other teams. But I like the sarcasm, nice touch.

Thanks. Gotta try and keep a sense of humor.

Smoove does need to improve but I would rather invest in him and help him to keep developing his skills. The reward is greater than the risk IMO.

[Swish]

I couldn't see Smith as a warrior anyways

I could. He would be downright scary with Beans, Ellis, Mags and Jack.

[Flight]

I could. He would be downright scary with Beans, Ellis, Mags and Jack.

He's already Scary enough with Bibby-JJ-Marv-Al

[HawkItus]

I think this under scores what the "don't overpay" camp has been saying. Smoove is a nice piece, but don't pay him like he's the piece.

[Admin]

He's already Scary enough with Bibby-JJ-Marv-Al

He's definitely plenty scary to me ... like when he gets the ball around the 3pt line and I'm screaming no Josh don't take that shot you never know what he's gonna do. Take it and swish it, take it and air ball it, or drive for a bucket.

[Flight]

He's definitely plenty scary to me ... like when he gets the ball around the 3pt line and I'm screaming no Josh don't take that shot you never know what he's gonna do. Take it and swish it, take it and air ball it, or drive for a bucket.

Yeah lol thats another reason why he's fun to watch

[coachx]

I agree with him to a point. Its tough to hand out $60-$70 mill to player with more holes then Swiss Cheese. We just have to remember this cheese is only 22 and normally cheese gets better with age (or at least good cheese normally says aged some where on the package.) Anyway, you get the point.

If he is not resigned and Smith improves and actually starts playing with SOME basketball IQ/ awareness then the ASG will be called fools for not resigning him.

If the ASG gives him what he wants (lets say $66-$72 mill over 6 years) and he remains the same type of player. Continues to jack up perimeter jumpers, shoot a poor % for his position, and committ over 3 turnovers a game, concentrating on help defense over defense on his own man,... they will be called dumb for resigning a player who just "doesn't get it" for big money.

Looks like this sword could cut but them either way here. Most Hawks fans think Smith will improve no matter what. As the off season moves along the loyal and "homer" fan in me is being quited....maybe I'm eventually becoming rational but not to the point of telling Smith good bye.

I think the question in the ASG's mind is more then relevant:

1. Will paying Josh Smith more money give him more basketball IQ ?

2. Will paying Smith more money make him more willing to listen and implement coaching ?

3. Do the people who are around Smith on daily basis think he will ever gow up and play like a "pro's pro" or will he alwayse be a physically gifted enigma who never gets the "finer points of the game" and relies on his athletic ability to get him by. I use the term "finer points of the game" very loosely........to me their the basics such as:

a. stop shooting from any where that your FG % is 30% or under based on shot clock.

b. control yourself and cut your turnovers down from over 3 a game to 1 per game.

c. Fundamental defense. He should more often play defense vs. his man with proper position and stop letting them blow by him so he can pad blocked shots stats.

If Smoove can correct these basic points of weaknesses it should effect the win loss column by at least 5 games if not more. However, if its already been 4 years and he doesn't get it then the question should be asked why is he still committing the same mistakes. Well, the blame goes on Smith and to a lesser extend Woodson for not disciplining Smith and puting Smith in bad position on the perimeter for some half court setsbut that is for another post.

The bottom line is paying a 22 year old not named Lebron James or Dwight Howard any where around $70 mill is risk.

I want us to take that risk ! Its not like we can just save up cap room and get a Wade or Lebron in here when the biggest market in the country (Nets / Knicks) will be targeting them and is clearing cap space as for some max offers.

Edited August 5, 2008 by coachx

[oiatlhawksfan]

I doubt they trade for him. That would be the 3rd player they bring in at atleast 60 million. Cory Maggette got 55 million

[Flight]

Yeah I agree wit coachx we should take the risk!!

[crimedog]

If you read the section I quoted, I was supporting the talk that Smith was an average on-ball defender who likes to swoop in for the weakside block and that Al Horford is valued more by other teams. But I like the sarcasm, nice touch.

Rookies are always overvalued by writers though. I mean, remember after Ty Thomas put up 4-3-1-1 for his rookie season? People were calling him a cross between Kemp and Ben Wallace. After Okafor's rookie season, people thought he was going to improve a lot and be part of the next gen of dominant centers. Somehow Brandan Wright's value has gone up over the course of the year even though he played like, 2 times.

Frankly, and I'm not suggesting this, if we were to ever try to move Al for a more established star, now would be the time because when he is in Smith's position of asking for more money, people are going to point out that he can't anchor a D and doesn't have enough aggression on offense to ever be the type to warrant a max contract (the writer of this article even makes note that Al's contract is far more attractive).

[Packfill]

Rookies are always overvalued by writers though. I mean, remember after Ty Thomas put up 4-3-1-1 for his rookie season? People were calling him a cross between Kemp and Ben Wallace. After Okafor's rookie season, people thought he was going to improve a lot and be part of the next gen of dominant centers. Somehow Brandan Wright's value has gone up over the course of the year even though he played like, 2 times.

Frankly, and I'm not suggesting this, if we were to ever try to move Al for a more established star, now would be the time because when he is in Smith's position of asking for more money, people are going to point out that he can't anchor a D and doesn't have enough aggression on offense to ever be the type to warrant a max contract (the writer of this article even makes note that Al's contract is far more attractive).

Very true.

There is also a very obvious trend on this board for people falling in love with the newest Hawk draft pick. It makes sense in a way as a rookie can have warts and we can still hope they become a superstar.