Joe Evaluation

[benhillboy]

How y'all feeling about Joe's performance so far? It's well known I'm not a J.J. guy, though I always thought that he is as good a man defender as offensive player, if not better many times. Looking at our win-loss, his defense against upper-echelon 2's goes a long way in fueling wins (Wade, Roy, Martin, Iggy, Jesus, etc.) and seems to get him more involved with playing team offense as far as swinging it and making plays for others. We have lost games to teams with no 2 to speak of, so maybe he gets bored without a scoring threat to guard. Of course, a lot of pressure has been taken off of him with the improvement of Al AKA The Big Point, Schmoove, and of course the addition of Craw Dog. I still cringe at those 4-5 dribbles standing still knowing that we have no movement or cuts in our offense, weak turnovers due to careless/ weak dribbling, and those aimless fade-aways from awful spots on the floor. I hate them even when he hits. I always say that Joe is the softest 6'7" cat you'll ever see at the rim, but he has shown flashes here and there catching an alley and tip dunk. Gotta love the floater that he is always improving and tweaking as needed, and they seem to come at crucial times quite often.

I can't knock too much on a 21-5-5 guy on a team who is dominating more times than not. What I didn't realize though is that Joe is a career 44% shooter, and is standing pat this year. There is no reason he should be under .465 with less pressure to score with Jamaal in the fold. A career 37% three point shooter, down to .289 should be drastically improved by next month, I hope, since he and Bibs couldn't miss the first three months of last year and Price is still in the gym with them. For a guy who can't jump, improving your boards over your career average by 1 is impressive, and upping the dimes by .5 shows no agenda as far as trying to get more oppurtunities to score or freezing out Jamaal because of a contract year.

We need Joe no doubt, especially since it will be impossible to replace him with a comparable 2, and adding a Bosh or a great PG would only throw a monkey wrench into our chemistry and lineup for the sake of replacing his point production, as most players can't guard their position as well as Joe anyway. But he's making $15 mil. C'mon man. Unless he takes a drastic pay cut (which I'm sure he won't), I am not a fan of bringing him back, especially until he shows some cahunas in the playoffs.

I'm cool with Joe right now because it isn't all about him. As long as Josh and Al keep the rim off limits, Bibby hits a few trays, Mo has on the utility belt, Craw plays like he's at the Rucker, and Marvin, uuuhh, does Marvin while providing some comic relief, Joe can be quite efficient, stay fresh, and not worry about shouldering the load, something he cannot do on a regular basis, but something he shouldn't be asked to do on a team this good.

Defend, Pass, and Run Young Hawks. Let's Go.

Edited December 12, 2009 by benhillboy

[TheNorthCydeRises]

You illustrate all the reasons why he's getting 15 million . . then turn right around and say "unless he takes a drastic pay cut, you don't want him here?"

What you need ask yourself is how many 2 guards in the league can do all of the things that Joe Johnson does with the Hawks. Or better yet, what guards could you switch out with JJ, and get absolutely no dropoff in offense AND defense. That list is VERY SHORT.

- Kobe Bryant

- Dwyane Wade

- Brandon Roy

- Andre Iguodala ( maybe )

That's it folks.

The top three on that list, are worth every penny their team can pay them. You know that Kobe and D-Wade are max contract guys. Brandon Roy, when his current contract is done, is possibly close a max contract guy. I guess you would want JJ to make Iggy money ( around 13 mill a year )

Losing a guy that can get you 20 - 5 - 5, simply because you don't want to overpay to keep him, isn't a smart move in this league. There are so few guards that can play both offense and defense in this league, that a versatile player like that shouldn't be taken for granted.

That looks like what you're doing. Simply taking JJ for granted.

That dude isn't flashy. He's just consistent as hell. Every team we play focuses on stopping HIM before any other player on the team. You say JJ can't shoulder the load on a regular basis. LOL . . that's all he's been doing ever since he's been a Hawk. What Joe Johnson have you been watching? He shoulders the load as well as any 2-guard in the league, not named Kobe or Wade.

Dude hasn't played with a PG that could get him easier looks ( which is why he doesn't have a ridiculously high FG% ). Dude also hasn't played with a great low post option that would allow him and the team to play inside-outside basketball.

Now, knowing all of that, do you really want JJ to go somewhere else, simply because you don't think he's worth more than 15 mill a year? He probably won't get a max deal, but he could easily get 17+ mill a year. You're letting the captain of our team walk because of that?

If we let him go, and he teams up with some other star or up and coming star in the East, we can forget about ever winning anything here. Josh Smith is a great talent, but he'll never be a guy that you can depend on as a go-to scorer. Horford, the same way. Marvin the same way. Crawford can do it, but he's been unsuccessful in every situation in which he had to be a volume scorer ( along with his horrible defense ). JJ is the offensive glue to the team, and by far our best perimeter defender.

Say we let him go though. Chicago is a star 2-guard away from being a legit threat in the East. Both Lebron and Wade would LOVE to add JJ to their team. What happens if the Knicks can't get Wade or Lebron, so they try to get 2 stars, like Amare & JJ or Bosh & JJ?

If anything, you pay JJ to keep other teams from getting him. If Phoenix still had JJ, do you know how dangerous that team would be?

Nah . . the Hawks should NOT play around with this. They'll ultimately evaluate his worth depending on how he plays in the playoffs, if they don't decide to possibly get "the best possible value for him" in a mid-season trade, reminiscent of what we did with Dominique. If we have to give him more money per year, or give him more money throughout the life of his contract, the Hawks need to do everything possible to keep that dude here.

Giving JJ a 6yr - 96 mill deal ( 16 mill a year ), means that an opposing team would have to be willing to pay him 19 - 20 mill a year over the max 5 years someone else can give him, just to match our 6 year deal. Depending on how JJ wants his money, they could easily structure that contract where we'd actually be paying him less money in the first year, than he's getting this year.

Now is he worth the money? Absolutely. If paying him that type of money keeps us a viable contender in the East for years to come ( which it would ), he's worth the money.

Unless you're willing to take the risk of losing him . . or trading him for a lesser player . . and risk the Hawks slipping back into the Eastern conference pack . . or out of the playoffs altogether.

[tremor]

The way JJ gets with the ball to his favorite spots is exceptional this year. He knows where he feels comfortable and he goes there at will.

Also his inside game is just great.

He could average much more ppg with slightly lower FG% but he prefers to share the ball, kudos to him for that.

[benhillboy]

Northcyde, you ask what I've been watching, but did you see him in the playoffs last year? Of course Joe is a damn good player (not great). But all things considered, I simply don't trust Joe when the pressure is on, and those type of guys don't deserve max deals, point blank period.

Edited December 13, 2009 by benhillboy

[Swatguy]

There is no way I will read all that.

Joe is doing exceptionally well after he opened and closed his mouth.

[tonegully]

If we let JJ leave, we will turn back the clock 5 years..pay the man

[HawksFan87]

he's been better the last few games.. But he HAS NOT been that great the entire season.. Everyone bashes Smoove, Marvin and Al when they play terrible, but always have excuses or are in denial about Joe's terrible play..

All in all, I hope Joe is not about the money. And more about being a team player and possible winning a championship here in the next few years.

Edited December 13, 2009 by jsmoovefan

[niremetal]

Everyone bashes Smoove, Marvin and Al when they play terrible, but always have excuses or are in denial about Joe's terrible play..

That is complete and total BS. People bash Joe all the time, as much or more than Smoove and Marvin, and way more than Horford. Not saying it's entirely undeserved, but it's true. But since you obviously are a hater on him (you think everyone is "in denial" about the "terrible play" of a guy averaging 21, 5, and 5? really?), you only see the defenses of him and the bashings of your more-favored players.

Edited December 14, 2009 by niremetal

[spotatl]

The Question isn't whether Joe is worth a max contact. (eveyone would prefer that he not get the max- thats an irrelevant question) The question is whether you think the Hawks would be better off letting him walk away for no compensation rather than paying him the max. SOMEONE is going to give Joe max money this offseason. There are so many teams desprately trying to clear caproom for players they aren't going to get (Wade, Lebron, etc) And once those 2 pieces fall then there are going to be a lot of teams fighting over Amare, Bosh, and Joe. If you think the team would be better off with 10 million in caproom instead of Joe then probably you should be looking to trade him now.

[MaceCase]

http://nbaroundtable.wordpress.com/2009/12/13/2010-cap-space-atlanta/#comments

Pretty good analysis of our cap situation next year. Without both Chill's and Joe's cap holds we have less than 5 mil in projected cap plus all of our exceptions but they cannot be combined for a singular player. It's doubtful Joe is looking for the full max but I'm sure he would like a pay raise with longer term security to boot.

Edited December 14, 2009 by CrawfulToCrawesome

[Swatguy]

Lock him up ASAP (as well as Woody)

[Buzzard]

Lock him up ASAP

I was worried but not anymore after reading what Sund said about the talks this off season. Sund said their extension talks went well; JJ just wanted to get his full deal by going unrestricted. I think we will resign him and do not see us losing JJ outright to another team. We will either resign him back or less likely SNT for a good player.

Chilz is the only 1/2 way decent player Sund let walk; and it was not because he would not match another NBA teams offer. In fact Chilz has not even received a good enough offer to force us into matching yet.

Sund nor JJ are fools; and from what Sund said about the off season talks, it looks like him, JJ, and JJs agent have a good line of communication. A whole lot of worry about nothing IMO. We won't lose our best player because someone outbidded us and we were not willing to beat it.

Edited December 14, 2009 by Buzzard

[spotatl]

The ASG has been willing to spend for talent on the court. I never thought in a million years that they would have made the bibby trade when they did. I personally would never have made the Crawford trade because of how much he is paid but the ASG wrote the check to get the deal done.

I'm more interested by the people here who are adamant that the Hawks should not give JJ a max contract this offseason. I'm rather sure that someone will give him that offer and for the Hawks to keep him thats what it will take. But saying JJ isn't worth the max isn't really all that useful. Saying you would rather let Joe walk rather than paying him the max is a real statement because thats the decision the ASG will likely be faced with.

[Buzzard]

The ASG has been willing to spend for talent on the court. I never thought in a million years that they would have made the bibby trade when they did. I personally would never have made the Crawford trade because of how much he is paid but the ASG wrote the check to get the deal done.

I'm more interested by the people here who are adamant that the Hawks should not give JJ a max contract this offseason. I'm rather sure that someone will give him that offer and for the Hawks to keep him thats what it will take. But saying JJ isn't worth the max isn't really all that useful. Saying you would rather let Joe walk rather than paying him the max is a real statement because thats the decision the ASG will likely be faced with.

I am not that sure JJ will get a max offer in this economy. Even millionaires are getting beat down. JJ has proven to be very reliable all-star; but I think his upside has been reached. This is what his contract offers will be based on; unlike when he was younger and BK saw him as a potential Kobe or TMac.

He is worth what he is getting now and just do not see a team locking up 20 mill a year on him. No matter though, I do think Sund will match all offers which is also going to keep the number of teams that go after him down.

I think there will be riots in NY if the Knicks lose out on Lebron, Bosh, Wade, Boozer and spend 20 mill a year on JJ. IMO most teams with cap space see it that way also. JJs contract offers will be compared to those four and possibly David Lees ; and that will be the deciding factor in my mind as to what type of offers he gets.

The Knicks also have to resign Lee; talking about a comedy of errors. Knicks lose Lee and they end up getting JJ in return. Not that JJ for Lee is a bad swap; but they will not be a much better team next season if that happens...

Edited December 14, 2009 by Buzzard

[spotatl]

If the Knicks miss out on lee then I think they would rather sign JJ then have all this caproom just go unused. they could easily bring back Lee and Joe with the room they have. Same with Chicago- if they miss out on Bosh and Wade I can easily see them thinking Joe is the key for them to take the next step. Same With Dallas. We'll see. I just think that once teams miss out on plan A (Lebron and Wade) then the plan B players will get overpaid. I think that Bosh, Amare, and Joe will all get max offers- there are simply too many teams that are going to have max room to offer for them not to.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Northcyde, you ask what I've been watching, but did you see him in the playoffs last year? Of course Joe is a damn good player (not great). But all things considered, I simply don't trust Joe when the pressure is on, and those type of guys don't deserve max deals, point blank period.

And what I said still stands. It's not like we're going to find a replacement for that dude via a trade, or by Lebron or Wade coming here. His performance in the playoffs, in my opinion, was because he was a little TOO unselfish. He was way too passive to me, considering Marvin was hurt and Horford ended up getting hurt. Believe it or not, he didn't have a single game in which he took more than 19 shots in a game during that playoff run. He deferred to a cold Flip way too much in my opinion, in his attempt to try to play "team ball".

This season, I see a totally different mentality in JJ. He's tried to put the team on his back this year, and people are blasting him for playing "selfish basketball" ( despite leading the team in assists ). Fact is, star players in playoff games routinely play "selfish" and try to win the game.

Honestly, the ONLY thing separating JJ from being a next level player, is his inability to draw a lot of fouls ( or get a lot of calls ). The superstar players take a ton of shots, and live on the foul line. If we can keep up this pace, maybe JJ will start getting some of those phantom calls that Lebron gets.

Very good players get paid in this league. And some of those very good players get paid like superstars.

17 - 18 mill a year isn't a max deal. But if a team offers him a max deal, the Hawks simply need to go over the top of that, by offering that 6th year with a little more money. JJ is a big reason why the Hawks are where they are right now. So when push comes to shove, the organization needs to act like it.

[Buzzard]

If the Knicks miss out on lee then I think they would rather sign JJ then have all this caproom just go unused. they could easily bring back Lee and Joe with the room they have. Same with Chicago- if they miss out on Bosh and Wade I can easily see them thinking Joe is the key for them to take the next step. Same With Dallas. We'll see. I just think that once teams miss out on plan A (Lebron and Wade) then the plan B players will get overpaid. I think that Bosh, Amare, and Joe will all get max offers- there are simply too many teams that are going to have max room to offer for them not to.

I think for some teams plan A2 or maybe even A1 is one of the bigs. Boozer, Bosh, Lee. Just don't see a team signing Wade and JJ or Lebron and JJ. Who needs that much perimeter help and no interior help?

You lock up that much cap on guards and/or small forwards; you end up looking like the Knicks of old with Spree and Houston minus Ewing. I see JJ getting a offer; but I think it will come after these four: LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and Boozer. Lee is a wildcard who could also hurt JJs market value as far as number of valid teams seeking him out.

The team that worries me is NJ; and should worry every team going after any of the big free agents. They have some young talent at key positions; and a SG/SF or PF/C could be just what the doctor ordered. But I still think at the end of the day we will beat all offers with a 6th year.

Edited December 14, 2009 by Buzzard

[dlpin]

I have absolutely no doubt that the only way Joe Johnson stays with the Hawks is if he gets a max deal.

Here's why:

let's assume next year's cap is 60 million.

A player of JJ's experience has a max contract of 30% of the cap, or, in this case, 18 million.

A player of Lebron's experience has a max contract of 25%, or, in this case, 15 million.

Well, the knicks only have 27 million tied up for the next season. The heat only have about 7 mill in contracts plus Wade's 17 mill option. The bulls only have 37 million tied up. Houston only has 39, and that is IF Ming comes back to play. New Jersey only has 25 mill. The clippers only have 39 mill tied up.

Now, I know that when cap holds are thrown in the figure is reduced. But in order to get a big name FA of course teams will renounce the rights to random scrubs.

My point is, EVEN IF Lebron, Wade and Bosh move, teams would still have enough left over to make a serious offer to JJ.

The heat, for example, could tie up Wade and Bosh, keep Cook, Chalmers and Beasley, resign a good chunk of their bench and still be under the cap enough to offer JJ if not the max, then very close to it. Even if the rest of the team is purely min. signings, it'd still be very hard to pass up the opportunity to play in a line up of Wade, Bosh, Beasley, and Chalmers.

The fact is that there are three key free agents (Wade, Lebron, Bosh) and lot's of teams with cap who will not let that cap space go to waste, and even the teams that land those top 3 might still have enough to go after JJ.

As far as whether he is worth it, that is another discussion.

[Diesel]

If the Knicks miss out on lee then I think they would rather sign JJ then have all this caproom just go unused. they could easily bring back Lee and Joe with the room they have. Same with Chicago- if they miss out on Bosh and Wade I can easily see them thinking Joe is the key for them to take the next step. Same With Dallas. We'll see. I just think that once teams miss out on plan A (Lebron and Wade) then the plan B players will get overpaid. I think that Bosh, Amare, and Joe will all get max offers- there are simply too many teams that are going to have max room to offer for them not to.

I think NY gets Bosh. I think NY makes a play for Wade and Lebron and if they lose out Joe is next.

The question is would Joe want to start back over?

Joe worked through getting to this point with us. We're a good team now. A really good team. Joe knows his role and we can win. Will Joe be willing to leave us to go to his old coach and play in the position that he left to come to us?? Say what you like, Joe would be second fiddle to Bosh.

They would be a good combo but defensively, NY ain't stopping nobody.

In his heart, Joe has to know this.

[Diesel]

I think for some teams plan A2 or maybe even A1 is one of the bigs. Boozer, Bosh, Lee. Just don't see a team signing Wade and JJ or Lebron and JJ. Who needs that much perimeter help and no interior help?

You lock up that much cap on guards and/or small forwards; you end up looking like the Knicks of old with Spree and Houston minus Ewing. I see JJ getting a offer; but I think it will come after these four: LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and Boozer. Lee is a wildcard who could also hurt JJs market value as far as number of valid teams seeking him out.

The team that worries me is NJ; and should worry every team going after any of the big free agents. They have some young talent at key positions; and a SG/SF or PF/C could be just what the doctor ordered. But I still think at the end of the day we will beat all offers with a 6th year.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Wade in NJ.

IN fact... who is to say that they are not tanking purposefully so that they can have the money for Wade. Harris and Lopez as sidekicks and then Get a shot at John Wall or Derrick Favors.