Is Jason Heyward the real thing?

[Guest]

CAC is very pro Heyward and I understand that but they have an agenda in their writing sometimes...they just disabled comments about a week ago bc of new comers disagreeing with their biased writing....still go on there from time to time to see whats what

Good to know, that confrms my guess that they are pro Heyward from just reading about the 10 newest posts from a week ago. There is no problem being biased, but when you claim to be objective, restrict/block communication to those in disagreement, and have a holier than thou attitude it is just pathetic.

[KB21]

"Jason's got one swing. His swing needs some versatility. How many times have we seen him get fooled on an off-speed pitch and one-hand it into centerfield?," Jones said.

"He swings and misses because he takes the same swing. He's had some mechanics that have been a little iffy that he is trying to work out. You show me a .300 hitter and I'll show you a guy who is going to take five different swings.

"He takes a two-handed swing. Have you ever seen him take a one-handed swing? I haven't either? How many times have you seen me get fooled on a changeup away and one-hand it through the (pitcher's) box.

"You've got to use your hands. He's got a long, smooth swing and until he learns to get some movement (in his hands) and drop them into a slot, a lot like you would a golf club and let his hands work for him, he is going to struggle.

"We've got to get him back to using the whole field like he did last year."

Chipper Jones detailed quite nicely Jason's problems from this season. He really alerts us on two things. First, Jason's biggest issue with hitting this year. Pitchers have adjusted to him, but he has yet to adjust back. Second, it really shows us how worthless Larry Parrish is as a hitting coach.

[jhay610]

Chipper Jones detailed quite nicely Jason's problems from this season. He really alerts us on two things. First, Jason's biggest issue with hitting this year. Pitchers have adjusted to him, but he has yet to adjust back. Second, it really shows us how worthless Larry Parrish is as a hitting coach.

Chipper's dad as hitting coach and Chipper as part time 3rd sacker and part time assistant hitting coach next year?

[coachx]

Those quotes by Chipper, concerning Heywards swing, show exactly what many of us see who argue against a pure statistical analysis predicting Heyward's future success. Its not a matter of stats at all with Heyward. Pitchers have found the holes in his swing and Heyward has major adjustments to make. There is a human element to the game that must be accounted for and that human element can go far beyond statistics......especially statistical analysis from last season before pitchers figured where the holes are in Heyward's swing.

Edited August 22, 2011 by coachx

[Guest]

There is a human element to the game that must be accounted for and that human element can go far beyond statistics......especially statistical analysis from last season before pitchers figured where the holes are in Heyward's swing.

I think those can be accounted for if only the sabermetric community would start focusing on confidence intervals a bit more. The human element is embedded within all players who go from year 1 to 2 to... and from single A to double A to...so the human element is within all of our statistics. A main issue that one runs into is that one cannot observe Heyward's true personality type (its not as simple as saying he is a Type A or Type B, its more of a continuum of types). Since we cannot truly observe Heyward's personality type, we cannot gain any statistical knowledge about how his type influences his play on the field (which is observable and quantifiable). But the trick is that the human element is still within the statistics, so our statistics are still picking up the human element.

If instead of working with averages and using point estimates to project future performance (didn't CBA make a reference to Constanza would be a .2xx hitter in the majors since he was a .3xx hitter in the minors?), use confidence intervals. Instead of saying Heyward projects to being a such and such hitter, start putting bounds to what type of hitter he could be. If one does this correctly and establishes the correct variance for year to year and league to league performance, you should see wide confidence intervals. The wide intervals would give you a proxy for the human element. Now some sabermetricians are cognizant of this, those are the rigorous ones who are good at what they do. That isn't a typical sabermetrician though, the typical one is just using sabermetrics as a way to twist around statistics so they can voice their opinion with "facts".

[coachx]

I think those can be accounted for if only the sabermetric community would start focusing on confidence intervals a bit more. The human element is embedded within all players who go from year 1 to 2 to... and from single A to double A to...so the human element is within all of our statistics. A main issue that one runs into is that one cannot observe Heyward's true personality type (its not as simple as saying he is a Type A or Type B, its more of a continuum of types). Since we cannot truly observe Heyward's personality type, we cannot gain any statistical knowledge about how his type influences his play on the field (which is observable and quantifiable). But the trick is that the human element is still within the statistics, so our statistics are still picking up the human element.

Personality types do come into play but in Heywards case I think "swing type" is more the issue. Chipper perfectly illustrated that. Not ever 2nd year player fights the same demons. With some players' personalities they do struggle in larger markets and dealing with all the exterior changes in life that every new Major League player will expierence but not every one will struggle with. (I think even a veteran like Uggla dealt with that when getting a big contract and moving to Atlanta from the Marlins empty ball park). With other players there are actual mechanical issues that did not get exposed until the Major League pitchers exposed them.

Perhaps the earlier shoulder injury is preventing Heyward from taking one handed swings and short abbreviated swings to make contact when fooled by a pitch. Perhaps that shoulder is keeping him from hitting high and inside pitches. I hope that is the case.

Edited August 23, 2011 by coachx

[jy23]

Chipper is dead on with his analysis...Heyward just needs some time and a real hitting coach and he'll be just fine. He is pretty much a one trick pony at the moment.

And can Chip just take over as hitting coach next year even if he doesn't retire...I mean is there a rule against it or something bc he would clearly be leaps and bounds better than the crap we have there now

[coachx]

Seeing Jason hit to the opposite field was very encouraging last night. I hope that grandslam helps him continue to dig his way out of this funk.

[frosgrim]

Heyward is starting to show some signs of coming around. But, until he gets more bat speed on the inside and learns to flick the bat to spoil outside pitches, he's going to be a sub .250 hitter. I believe this is what Jones was referring to. If Heyward can learn to what Jones does left handed, he'll be an increadible hitter. I still wory that Heyward has something very wrong with his shoulder(s) that is slowing his bat down. Hopefully he can do some serious physical therapy in the off season to get his core and upper body stronger to handle one handed swings as well as pulling his swing in to rake the inside pitch.

Regarding Chipper: What has always amazed me about Chipper is that when he's going well, homeruns just jump off his bat. For example, that left-handed swing he takes on the low inside pitch where it looks like all he does is drop the bat down is a thing of grace. That is the swing Heyward must develop.

[coachx]

Regarding Chipper: What has always amazed me about Chipper is that when he's going well, homeruns just jump off his bat. For example, that left-handed swing he takes on the low inside pitch where it looks like all he does is drop the bat down is a thing of grace. That is the swing Heyward must develop.

Chipper is 1 HR shy of #450 now while maintaining a carrer BA over .300. That is quite impressive. He is easily one of the 3 best switch hitters in history. His career numbers would look better then Mickey Mantle's if he got to hit in that tiny Yankee ball park against pitchers throwing 200 pitches over for 9 innings, throughout his career, like Mickey did.

What I love about Chipper is that you hardly ever see him take a bad swing. Chipper has never had 100 or more strikeouts in a season. That is quite remarkable for a guy with his power. (For comparisons sake Mickey Mantle had 8 seasons with with over 100 strikeouts.

Edited August 25, 2011 by coachx