Mike Scott position on Draftexpress analysis of forward crop

[ATLscrubLove]

He was an excellent pick for the mid 2nd round. Who knows he may become something special. Let's see how he does once the season begins.

[KB21]

It's interesting. I keep seeing this from NBA front office people as well as fans. There is too much focus on what a player looks like and not enough focus on the player actually producing. Look at the names that are at the bottom of that list. Perry Jones, Terrence Jones, Moe Harkless, and Quincy Miller. Those are the names that are consistently at the bottom of these lists relative to their production, and outside of Quincy Miller, these guys go in the first round and are the names that fans belly ache about missing out on. The names at the top of this list though are Mike Scott, Kevin Jones, Jae Crowder, and John Shurna. Crowder and Scott both go in the second round while Jones and Shurna go undrafted. At some point, you would think that NBA types and fans alike would learn that appearance means very little. Just because someone is long, athletic, can run like a deer and leap like a leopard doesn't mean he can play basketball.

[thecampster]

Using Hollinger's PER model, Scott was tops in that category according to the article.

Not a perfect metric but there is something to it.

Name-----------------PER

Mike Scott----------- 30.7

Jae Crowder ----------28.9

Kevin Jones -----------28.6

John Shurna --------- 27.6

Eric Griffin------------26.5

Mitchell Watt---------26.5

Draymond Green----26.1

JaMychal Green-----25.2

Terrence Jones-------24.3

Royce White--------22.9

Perry Jones III-----21.2

Moe Harkless-------21

Quincy Miller---------19.3

Tornike Shengelia----12.2

[Jbrinson]

He doesn't say he can defend small forwards. Josh Smith struggles to defend small forward with his foot speed. Anybody thinking Mike Scott is going to be faster from his statement that he is a 4 but he will give it his best to play some 3? If you were an undersized PF with a good perimeter game, you would tell people that you could play some 3 too. I'm not convinced that a guy who weighs nearly 40 pounds more than Iggy and who isn't known for his athleticism is going to check all that many 3's.

I was trying to think of some 3's that he could guard and i couldn't think of any.

[AHF]

It's interesting. I keep seeing this from NBA front office people as well as fans. There is too much focus on what a player looks like and not enough focus on the player actually producing. Look at the names that are at the bottom of that list. Perry Jones, Terrence Jones, Moe Harkless, and Quincy Miller. Those are the names that are consistently at the bottom of these lists relative to their production, and outside of Quincy Miller, these guys go in the first round and are the names that fans belly ache about missing out on.The names at the top of this list though are Mike Scott, Kevin Jones, Jae Crowder, and John Shurna. Crowder and Scott both go in the second round while Jones and Shurna go undrafted. At some point, you would think that NBA types and fans alike would learn that appearance means very little. Just because someone is long, athletic, can run like a deer and leap like a leopard doesn't mean he can play basketball.

Are you positing that Scott, Jones, Crowder and Shurna will have collectively have better NBA careers than Harkless, Miller and the two Joneses? I would suggest that the names at the top of that list indicate that its value is something well short of a firm predictor for NBA success. I suspect that among the lowly regarded people at the top of the list every year, one or two materially exceed their predictions and many simply take their nice college numbers (usually produced when they are 2 or 3 years older than the guys getting drafted higher) and move on to the next stage of their life and likewise several of the lowly rated (by numbers but not by NBA gm(s)) players flame out. For example, I could easily see Crowder having rotation lesuccess, Jones and Shurna never being heard from again, Harkless enjoying a reasonable career as a defensive wing (both starter and reserve at times), lowly numbers rated Drummond flaming out, Miller starting for a few years, and Terrence Jones enjoy a limited 6 year career primarily as a reserve. You could then point to Crowder and Drummond as guys the numbers linked above flagged for success/failure contrary to GM ratings.

[KB21]

Are you positing that Scott, Jones, Crowder and Shurna will have collectively have better NBA careers than Harkless, Miller and the two Joneses?I would suggest that the names at the top of that list indicate that its value is something well short of a firm predictor for NBA success. I suspect that among the lowly regarded people at the top of the list every year, one or two materially exceed their predictions and many simply take their nice college numbers (usually produced when they are 2 or 3 years older than the guys getting drafted higher) and move on to the next stage of their life and likewise several of the lowly rated (by numbers but not by NBA gm(s)) players flame out. For example, I could easily see Crowder having rotation lesuccess, Jones and Shurna never being heard from again, Harkless enjoying a reasonable career as a defensive wing (both starter and reserve at times), lowly numbers rated Drummond flaming out, Miller starting for a few years, and Terrence Jones enjoy a limited 6 year career primarily as a reserve. You could then point to Crowder and Drummond as guys the numbers linked above flagged for success/failure contrary to GM ratings.

What I'm saying is that I believe the better and more productive players will come from that group. What the numbers tell me is that Perry Jones is going to struggle to score in the low post, defend in the low post, and rebound. Moe Harkless is going to struggle with the transition to small forward because he has limited range outside 10 feet. Terrence Jones really has no position, and his numbers do not support the idea that he can be an undersized power foward in the NBA. Quincy Miller's numbers also don't suggest to me that he is giong to be able to score from the perimeter well enough to be a small forward nor rebound well enough to play in the post. While in the other group, the numbers suggest that Mike Scott will at the very least be a solid contributor off the bench as a lost post scoring threat who can extend out to 17 feet, Jae Crowder should just be all around good, and Kevin Jones should at least be a contributor off the bench. IMO, this whole argument of upside vs production is the reason Tyrus Thomas and Brandan Wright get picked in the top 10 while Craig Smith, Carl Landry, DeJuan Blair, and Brandon Bass go in the 2nd round. The latter three are better players than the first two, and they were overlooked because they largely didn't look the part.To add, two things that I have learned over the years:1. Lenny Wilkens was a much better coach than I gave him credit for being.2. Potential and upside only means that you haven't done anything yet.

[KB21]

One reason why Danny Ferry is ranked high for drafting is because he minimizes risk. Mike Scott has little risk in being a useless player. On the other hand, all the other suggested names are players who have a high risk in flaming out quickly. Sure they could possibly end up being maybe better than Mike Scott based upon this hunch that they could maybe develop to being better than what they currently are. I admit that, but I also understand probabilities.Why waste a pick? Posters are expecting some sort of savior from the second round. This isn't realistic at all. I think the detractors of Mike Scott fall into two categories: those that have never seen him play and those that have and are delusional.

I agree.As an aside, I would love to see Danny Ferry hire Tom Penn as Vice President of Basketball Operations/Advanced Anaylitcs.

[Joker]

@kb21, brandan wright actually good numbers. He had production and talent. He went to the wrong system and was always injured.

[Joker]

In most drafts, guys like mike scott get drafted a lot higher than the mid 2nd round. I can see why drew and ferry was surprised he was still there.

[Vol4ever]

Nothing I have read suggests Scott has the speed to defend 3's.

and you cant make a 4 into a good 3, we have seen that with Marvin.

[Vol4ever]

Based on the film I've seen I like Scott. He wasnt the fancy name everyone was looking for so he must not be any good. Looks like he likes the low post and lord knows there is all kinds of room in the low post on this team.

[AHF]

One reason why Danny Ferry is ranked high for drafting is because he minimizes risk.

There is a right balance to strike. The Pacers draft for low risk. Their team's ceiling looks like 2nd round exit because of it. I don't want to see a bunch of Tyler Hansbrough types who are all but certain to be productive contributors and all but certain never to be considered for an All-Star game. It is interesting that Presti went the opposite direction when you would think he would be adding productive role players to flesh out the roster but instead he is taking a shot at more of a boom or bust player.

[itsslomotionbaby]

the guy reminds me of a danny granger type