NBA Player Ranking - ESPN & SI

[LamarHampton]

ESPN is doing their Top 500 NBA players ranking:

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9680298/2013-nba-player-rankings-401-500

These rankings are always fun to look at, but mostly when it's NBA slow time like right now.

But a few things jumped out at me as ESPN unveiled the bottom 100 in their ranking of the top 500 NBA players:

1.) I'm willing to give the man a shot, but really, what did Jared Cunningham do to jump all the way from 468 last year to 408 this year?

2.) Why all the hate for Shelvin Mack? He did okay for us in an injury crunch last year but got dinged so bad he fell from #396 last year to below Jared Cunningham to the #431 slot. Say which?

3.) Not that I thought he was the next Timmy Duncan or anything, but with all the COMPLETE scrubs out there, how is Fab Melo practically falling off the list at #499? The man played decent in SL after all. Did I miss something? Dang.

I'm sure other people will notice some things I missed. Go ahead and share what you find interesting on the list and from the next batches that will be coming out in the next few days. I'm itching for the NBA season to start already and this crap's gotta keep me occupied for the time being.

Oh, and in case you missed this one, SI did one on the Top 100 NBA Players:

http://nba.si.com/2013/09/12/top-100-players-of-2014-nos-100-51/

Notice some of the love our Hawks are getting in the bottom 50 on that list:

98. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks (G/F, 32)2012-13 stats: 30.5 MPG, 10.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 45.7 3FG%2012-13 advanced stats: 13.9 PER, 6.4 Win Shares, +0.7 RAPM

It’s easy to write off Korver as merely a shooter, but he moves so well off the ball and is so exceptionally accurate with his shot that he bends defenses with his every cut and curl. Korver also doesn’t overstep his role; he passes out of unfavorable situations and understands his own limitations. What he does well legitimately makes his team better and what he does poorly (one-on-one defense, lack of shot creation) can be managed. That makes Korver a catch in the role-player set. — RM

80. Lou Williams, Atlanta Hawks (G, 26)2012-13 stats: 28.7 MPG, 14.1 PPG, 3.6 APG, 28.7 MPG, 42.2 FG%, 36.7 3FG%2012-13 advanced stats: 15.9 PER, 2.4 Win Shares, -0.4 RAPMNote: Williams played only 39 games last season because of an ACL tear

Williams is one of the league’s most idiosyncratic scorers: Given how little he gets into the paint, he does a surprising amount of damage. Last season, a mere 26.5 percent of Williams’ points came from shots in the lane*, though such a strong perimeter orientation didn’t stop him from averaging 17.7 points per 36 minutes on decent shooting percentages. The trick? Williams does remarkable work off the ball, particularly in the Kevin Martin-like craft of using hand-offs and cuts to draw fouls. He does an impeccable job of baiting overeager defenders by changing speeds, and as a result, Williams has averaged an impressive 6.1 free-throw attempts per 36 minutes over his last three seasons. That ability, along with above-average shooting from beyond the arc, helps buoy his efficiency, while Williams’ fairly underrated passing helps prevent his style from becoming too erratic or intrusive. — RM

*By comparison, fellow Hawks guard Jeff Teague scored 49 percent of his points on shots in the paint.

78. Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks (G, 25)2012-13 stats: 32.9 MPG, 14.6 PPG, 7.2 APG, 2.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 45.1 FG%, 35.9 3FG%2012-13 advanced stats: 16.8 PER, 6.1 Win Shares, -0.1 RAPM

It doesn’t look like Teague will ever achieve greatness, but his steady improvement in four seasons more than warranted his new four-year, $32 million contract. His game is predicated on his quickness and his lack of glaring weaknesses, and while he’s no standout when it comes to plus-minus, he deserves credit for keeping the Hawks in the playoffs despite a major roster dismantling in 2012. That Milwaukee chose to pursue Teague in restricted free agency rather than retain Brandon Jennings was telling, and it speaks well of his chances to assume a larger leadership role as he progresses through his 20s. With Josh Smith now gone, Teague will likely need to surpass the career-high 14.6 points he put up last season. Finding a way to get to the free-throw line more regularly would help. — BG

Here's a good Peachtree Hoops article about what SI's posted thus far:

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2013/9/16/4737106/si-com-top-100-nba-2013-14-atlanta-hawks

Edited September 17, 2013 by LamarHampton

[MaceCase]

For ESPN you just needed to read this part at the beginning.

This year, we asked our ESPN Forecast panel to predict the overall level of play for each player for the upcoming NBA season.

They italicized "predict" on their own.

I would say that Cunningham going from being a rookie on a vet laden team to a sophomore on a team with only Louis coming off injury and another sophomore in Jenkins manning the 2 guard position could warrant a better outlook for him.

I would say that Mack being currently stuck behind Jeffrey and now Schröder would suggest that his outlook will drop in comparison to his previous seasons where he was the top backup.

Melo is likely out of the league after having two teams give up on him completely in not even 1 year. It would seem that they are coming to their senses and not affording him the dreaded P word nor look at him as a scrappy free agent that has either managed a decent length of a career in the NBA already or has done the full DLeague/Europe/China circuit to work their way into it. Melo is currently competing with other COMPLETE scrubs as you say for the final roster spots in Dallas. I wouldn't say that his non-ranking is some tragedy considering that most scrubs work their way up rather than down and at the minimum, for 1st rounders especially, at least managed to finish the 2 guaranteed years of their rookie deals.

[capstone21]

I loved Mike Scott's reaction to being ranked 394.... he tweeted 'LOL' to his spot and ESPN posted it under his name

[thecampster]

I loved Mike Scott's reaction to being ranked 394.... he tweeted 'LOL' to his spot and ESPN posted it under his name

I predict the following for Mike Scott.

1. 2 of Horford, Brand, Milsap will not play the entire season healthy.

2. Elton Brand will be the best influence possible on Mike Scott, on the court, at the defensive end, in the weight room, inside his own head.

3. At some point Scott will have to fill in for the above mentioned players and has the potential to solidify himself as an NBA player for some time. I'm rooting for Scott.

[capstone21]

I predict the following for Mike Scott.

1. 2 of Horford, Brand, Milsap will not play the entire season healthy.

2. Elton Brand will be the best influence possible on Mike Scott, on the court, at the defensive end, in the weight room, inside his own head.

3. At some point Scott will have to fill in for the above mentioned players and has the potential to solidify himself as an NBA player for some time. I'm rooting for Scott.

I liked what Scott showed in the limited minutes he played last year.

[MrMeltdown]

Not a fan of this list but I never am a fan of lists. I think Teague could jump 30+ spots with a good year.

[MrMeltdown]

Millsap is #38 with raw numbers very similar to Teague 14.6 PPG and 7.1 rebounds a game. Teague gave you 14.6 and 7.2 assists. I really think Millsap needs to rebound and score more as a Hawk. I am not sure I am sold on him being better than Josh.

[MaceCase]

Millsap is #38 with raw numbers very similar to Teague 14.6 PPG and 7.1 rebounds a game. Teague gave you 14.6 and 7.2 assists. I really think Millsap needs to rebound and score more as a Hawk. I am not sure I am sold on him being better than Josh.

Sure.....if you want to believe that raw numbers are somehow completely comparable across the board especially when you decide to remove such factors as attempts, rate or minutes played from the equation and then ignore all the other metrics that they were also relying upon to craft this list.

This is from the article itself

Only Josh Smith matched Millsap’s per-minute production of points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks last season, across-the-board contributions that will make him a bargain for the Hawks on a newly signed two-year, $19 million contract.

This would suggest that we are already getting a comparable player to Josh, one that happens to smoke him on all the advanced metrics. We are getting someone who can be just as multifaceted on both ends of the court all the while being extremely more efficient at it. Additionally, if you adjust for minutes played you will notice that Millsap's raw numbers best Jeffrey's as well (Sap played ~2.5 minutes less to compile his numbers) while also smoking him to a greater degree than he does Josh by the advanced metrics. We should also take note that Millsap has some caveat's to overcome in that he accomplished what he did in Utah with next to zero consistent PG help and a frontcourt mate that was a double whammy of being both a black hole on offense and a sieve on defense.

Really, it's no surprise that Sap outranked Jeffrey but what is questionable is just how exactly did Josh outrank him? Perhaps they fell for the raw totals too or they are still holding out a sliver of hope that he "gets it" in Detroit.

Edited September 18, 2013 by MaceCase

[Ruckus]

Millsap is #38 with raw numbers very similar to Teague 14.6 PPG and 7.1 rebounds a game. Teague gave you 14.6 and 7.2 assists. I really think Millsap needs to rebound and score more as a Hawk. I am not sure I am sold on him being better than Josh.

Josh who?

[MrMeltdown]

I hope those advanced stats transfer to the court. I have never been impressed with Millsaps personally. I think he is a horrible fit with Horford who does not protect the rim. Its not like Millsaps has a blazing post up game either. Time will tell maybe the system will help

Edited September 18, 2013 by MrMeltdown

[MaceCase]

I hope those advanced stats transfer to the court.

What....I don't even.... que? Ah wait, I see. This is actually quite deep. It's like chemistry, the court can transfer to advanced stats but it's not a dissolution so you can't reverse the process and transfer the stats to the court.

[AHF]

Sure.....if you want to believe that raw numbers are somehow completely comparable across the board especially when you decide to remove such factors as attempts, rate or minutes played from the equation and then ignore all the other metrics that they were also relying upon to craft this list.

This is from the article itself

This would suggest that we are already getting a comparable player to Josh, one that happens to smoke him on all the advanced metrics. We are getting someone who can be just as multifaceted on both ends of the court all the while being extremely more efficient at it. Additionally, if you adjust for minutes played you will notice that Millsap's raw numbers best Jeffrey's as well (Sap played ~2.5 minutes less to compile his numbers) while also smoking him to a greater degree than he does Josh by the advanced metrics. We should also take note that Millsap has some caveat's to overcome in that he accomplished what he did in Utah with next to zero consistent PG help and a frontcourt mate that was a double whammy of being both a black hole on offense and a sieve on defense.

Really, it's no surprise that Sap outranked Jeffrey but what is questionable is just how exactly did Josh outrank him? Perhaps they fell for the raw totals too or they are still holding out a sliver of hope that he "gets it" in Detroit.

I think Millsap has the edge in the most popular advanced metrics but it is not a big edge. Those metrics are universally recognized to do a very poor job of quantifying defense so I would guess that the rationale is that Josh is so superior on defense that the margin of better metric performance is outweighed by the defense.

Either that or ESPN guys like the bigger name which never, ever happens.

[AHawks89]

I think Millsap has the edge in the most popular advanced metrics but it is not a big edge. Those metrics are universally recognized to do a very poor job of quantifying defense so I would guess that the rationale is that Josh is so superior on defense that the margin of better metric performance is outweighed by the defense.

Either that or ESPN guys like the bigger name which never, ever happens.

Millsap may be more efficient but that's about it. Same could be said about Al Horford too. I think Al and Millsap are a lot alike. I'm happy to have them both on that note.

Edited September 18, 2013 by AHawks89

[AHF]

Millsap may be more efficient but that's about it. Same could be said about Al Horford too. I think Al and Millsap are a lot alike. I'm happy to have them both on that note.

Given that Josh is one of the worst efficiency players in any frontcourt and Millsap is a standout that is a fairly large difference.

[AHawks89]

Given that Josh is one of the worst efficiency players in any frontcourt and Millsap is a standout that is a fairly large difference.

I wouldn't go that far. You all think that Smoove held Horford and Teague back. First yall said that Joe Johnson was the reason, once he left you all started blaming Smoove. What happens next? I think Teague will improve but not Horford. I wonder about this teams defense without Smoove but then again this is a completely different team. Who can defend on this team?

Edit: Outside of Schröder

Edited September 18, 2013 by AHawks89

[macdaddy]

I wouldn't go that far. You all think that Smoove held Horford and Teague back. First yall said that Joe Johnson was the reason, once he left you all started blaming Smoove. What happens next? I think Teague will improve but not Horford. I wonder about this teams defense without Smoove but then again this is a completely different team. Who can defend on this team?

Edit: Outside of Schröder

Joe was holding Teague back and when he left Teague's play improved a lot. I think Josh threw a kink in our offense at times so that should make Teague look better. As for Horford i think Bud's system is going to play to Horford's strengths and lets face it. Josh took a lot of shots. Those are going to go to more efficient players now and Horford should get a large percentage of those.

[AHawks89]

Joe was holding Teague back and when he left Teague's play improved a lot. I think Josh threw a kink in our offense at times so that should make Teague look better. As for Horford i think Bud's system is going to play to Horford's strengths and lets face it. Josh took a lot of shots. Those are going to go to more efficient players now and Horford should get a large percentage of those.

I totally agree with everything you said. I think Teague will keep improving. I don't think Horford will dramatically improve like you all say though.(maybe 18 ppg) I think Buds system will be better fit for him with the PnR. Josh did take a lot of shots. Shots that he shouldn't have shot. I do agree with that, but he was huge for our success every season. When he was off the court, the lead change would dramatically change every time. He's still my favorite player and will always be.

[AHawks89]

I totally agree with everything you said. I think Teague will keep improving. I don't think we're a better team without him though. I don't think Horford will dramatically improve like you all say though.(maybe 18 ppg) I think Buds system will be better fit for him with the PnR. Josh did take a lot of shots. Shots that he shouldn't have shot. I do agree with that, but he was huge for our success every season. When he was off the court, the lead change would dramatically change every time. He's still my favorite player and will always be.

[Guest]

I totally agree with everything you said. I think Teague will keep improving. I don't think Horford will dramatically improve like you all say though.(maybe 18 ppg) I think Buds system will be better fit for him with the PnR. Josh did take a lot of shots. Shots that he shouldn't have shot. I do agree with that, but he was huge for our success every season. When he was off the court, the lead change would dramatically change every time. He's still my favorite player and will always be.

I remember LD saying that Jeff's role was to bring the ball up court and pass it to Joe. LD played him as the 2 guard. Teague had a chance to flourish once Joe left. In Bud's offense my hope is that Al will be featured more CONSISTENTLY on offense, not the yo-yo job by LD. Al excels on PnR, he moves well without the ball and cuts to the rim effectively. Hopefully he improves his postgame even a little. He will not be a smooth post player but he can at least me more decisive and quicker on his moves.The same way we lost leads sometimes when Josh went to the bench, we have seen instances where leads increase when he sat - also don't forget all his momentum killing I'll-advised shots.I've always said that Josh was our most impactful player and that's on both fronts GOOD OR BAD IMPACT.

[MrMeltdown]

Al is #22. Funny that Noah is #21. Al had some really good numbers last year while remaining efficient. A true double double and shot over 50% from the field. He needs to get his FT stroke back. He could have easily averaged 18 last year if he was making FT's. I can see him averaging 20,10 this year.