Official Game Thread: Hawks - Mavericks

[lethalweapon3]

We started from the middle… now we still here!

The 2013-2014 NBA season officially gets underway for Our Fine Feathered Friends tonight, with a tip-off in Big D. (8:30 PM EST, Fox Sports South and Fox Sports Southwest). Heat checks, commence!

Boasting beaucoup cap space, both the Dallas Mavericks and the Atlanta Hawks had lofty aspirations heading into this past offseason. Unable to lure the few big free agent fish on the market, both teams eventually settled for B-list stars to supplement their most talented veterans and the few other players they had left under contract.

Just two full seasons removed from 2011, it’s hard to believe Mark Cuban’s Mavs are still the last team not named the Miami HEAT to win it all. Yet you can excuse the über-owner if he’s not fully paying attention to the team’s goings-on this offseason. Fresh from his third appearance just this year on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, the Shark Tank star fought the law this month and actually won, beating back the Securities and Exchange Commission from seizing millions of his dollars in fines for an alleged insider-trading scheme, then boasting of his triumph to all who’ll listen.

All my ex-GMs live in Texas, and Gersson Rosas is no exception to the rule. He amicably parted ways with Cuban, Inc. yesterday, as it appears he expected much more than an advisory role (behind Cuban, Donnie Nelson, Rick Carlisle, et al.) in transforming last year’s grizzled lottery team. I’m guessing if they make a replacement hire, it won’t be a GM but someone willing to play the wonky Hollinger role full-time.

Rosas leaves behind a roster that, like Atlanta, is still feeling itself out at the season’s start. They added super-scorer Monta "Have It All" Ellis, brought bigs Brandan Wright and Bernard “Sarge” James back into the fold, wooed a reliable passing point guard who’s become a highly reliable shooter as well in Jose Calderon, and then spackeled the remaining spaces with young talent (Gal Mekel, Wayne Ellington, DeJuan Blair) and past-their-prime vets (ex-Hawk Devin Harris, Samuel Dalembert). Dallas even swapped draft picks with Atlanta, acquiring point guard Sugar Shane Larkin, who’s out indefinitely after summertime ankle surgery, in exchange for Dennis “Herr Line” Schröder and Jared Cunningham.

All of that surrounds 2011 Finals MVP Dirk Nowitizki. Still a supreme offensive option with his killer jumpshot, it is hard to gauge whether the 11-time All-Star is truly heading into the twilight of his career. Free agents in 2014, Dirk (age 35) and two other city slickers, Shawn Marion (age 35) and Vince Carter (almost 37), are out to show everyone from the jump that they are worth one more multi-season payday. Marion surprised Mavs fans (and perhaps the Mavs’ office) by not opting out of his contract this summer to explore free agency. Dirk still considers Marion to be “one of the best slashers in this league.” Carter, in particular, is apt to surprise opponents that remember buying his basketball cards as kids with explosive forays into the paint from the baseline.

What will be interesting to see is if Ellis sacrifices his volume shooting to accommodate his All-Star elders’ need to showcase themselves or if, instead, the vets defer more of their offense to accommodate the never-gun-shy Ellis, transitioning Nowitzki (17.3 PPG in 2012-13, lowest since his rookie year) from the superstar tier to that of a top-notch role player.

Break out the frozen concentrated orange juice, because Ellis and O.J. Mayo are trading places. Head Coach Rick Carlisle grew frustrated all last season with Mayo’s perpetual inconsistency and was literally pushing him out the door with scathing commentary by season’s end. As Mayo spreads Larry Drew’s bread in Milwaukee, Dallas may be one of the few NBA locales where Ellis’ inefficient but reliable offense will seem like a breath of fresh air.

Amid the persistent turmoil in Milwaukee, Monta finished last season 4^th among all NBA guards in PPG, and third in the league in steals. This preseason, Ellis was also deferential to a fault, ranking 4^th in assists per game (6.1 APG, just 2.5 TOs/G). Whenever Calderon is on the floor and Nowitzki is drawing help, the Mavs don’t want Ellis passing up too many open shots.

The Mavs recognize Monta’s far from automatic, but will get his points with a ton of touches. Kirk Goldsberry’s newfangled ShotScore measure notes that Monta Ellis shoots below the NBA average at virtually every spot on the floor (Oh, hello there, Mr. Smith... http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2013/0711/grant_r_MontaEllis_JoshSmith.jpg). For the Hawks, it’ll be vital to disrupt passes into Ellis, and box out to secure the likely rebound whenever he calls his own number. Marion, Dalembert and Blair give the Mavs ample opportunity for putbacks and extra possessions.

Calderon is easily the best passer the Mavs have had since Jason Kidd drove erratically off to Manhattan in 2012 free agency. Jose ranked 5^th among active players in career APG and 5^th last season in assist percentage. He also comes into 2013-14 as possibly the sharpest shooter, too. He shot a league-leading 46.9% on three-pointers last year, including 52 percent after his trade from Toronto to Detroit, the only player eclipsing Kyle Korver’s crazy-good season beyond the arc. His effective field goal percentage was surpassed only by dunk-everything DeAndre Jordan and LeBron James. Efficiency-wise, he seems to be an ideal complement to Ellis on the floor.

Atlanta's Schröder confirmed in their preseason game last week that Calderon remains a defensive turnstile, so Jeff Teague must attack at will and make hay in the paint for himself and his teammates.

There remains a good deal of uncertainty for both teams as far as what to expect from their post players. Last season, the Hawks and Mavs were among the bottom-5 of the NBA in offensive rebound rate, both around 22%, and total rebound rate, both around 48%.

New Hawks Head Coach Mike Budenholzer seems committed to spreading the offensive floor and allowing bigs to expand their range. Yet on a team like Atlanta that shot just 27.8% on threes in the preseason (28^th in the NBA, and last in the East, and that’s with Korver), with point guards willing to drive but notorious for not finishing in the paint, second-chance points are crucial to any chance of winning basketball games. The Hawks wrapped up the preseason dead-last in the league in offensive boards, the sole team averaging less than eight per game. Among the top 50 preseason rebounders, Atlanta’s Al Horford and Paul Millsap were among just three players (Nic Batum is the other) collecting fewer than 1.0 offensive rebounds per game. Contributions in this area from Gustavo Ayón (13.1% offensive rebound rate post-trade to Milwaukee in 2012-13, a shade behind Zaza Pachulia) will be sorely missed in the near term.

Meanwhile, Dallas will give you buckets, but who will be at the rim making stops on the other end? Before he could cash in on expanded minutes this year, Brandan Wright fractured his left shoulder in preseason practice and is out indefinitely. Chris Kaman, the Mavs’ leader in defensive rebounding last year, is off to Tinseltown, while their 2012-13 leader in defensive rating, Elton Brand, enters tonight’s contest rocking an ATL jersey. Cuban has already staked his claim to free agent signee Dalembert as being “the key to our game more than anybody else.” Yet Dalembert wore out his welcome in Milwaukee after violating team policy (repeated tardiness), and was recently chided by Carlisle for not being in optimal condition to start this preseason. Will he heed Dallas’ call to be a reliable starting center?

Once an everyday Spurs starter, Blair has been wearing a sizable chip on his shoulder after getting frozen out of Gregg Popovich’s near-championship roster in the playoffs, for the second year in a row. Professing he has much to prove to his former team, he’ll be expected to infuse energy into the Mavericks under the glass at both ends. His matchups with ex-Mav Brand will be worth a close look.

The Mavs’ games will be high-scoring, but will probably be plodding halfcourt affairs. Can anyone help them pick up the pace? Brandan Wright can get up-and-down for a big man, but is sidelined with that shoulder injury, while Devin Harris is still hampered by that pesky toe, and won’t be churning out any points in transition tonight.

Dallas was actually 9^th in the league in pace last season. But that’s probably because the vets are not wasting any time on shot clocks executing halfcourt offensive plays. With Ellis included in the mix, Atlanta should be prepared to defend Dallas’ field goal attempts early in the shot clock, and push the tempo in the other direction when they secure the rebounds.

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3

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[kenkejas]

what do the Mavs say?

Edited October 30, 2013 by Dolfan23
Embedded vidoe

[lethalweapon3]

what do the Mavs say?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2D-BJrD-N0

Let's hope this doesn't catch on with the Hawks! No Drake Hands guys, either! lol

~lw3

[noble]

I think the score will be something like 98-85 for the Mavs.

[Admin]

More exciting news for our resident Murtaugh / Riggs.

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[Admin]

what do the Mavs say?

Wow that seems like something horribly embarrassing that the Hawks would do.

[lethalweapon3]

More exciting news for our resident Murtaugh / Ruggs.

Hold my calls!

As an aside, the actual LW3 was on cable early this morning! Of course, I slept right past it, because Lakers-Clips kept me up all night, plus I'm getting too old for this -- oh, nevermind.

~lw3

[benhillboy]

Damn those three games last night. The season doesn't kick off until Lethal's First Pre Game post. I always learn something, too. Had no idea boocoo was actually spelled beaucoup. Let's Go. Should be lighter on our feet getting there too without Shawty. The Shredder Show begins. Here's hoping (Nique voice) Derek Nowinski doesn't revert back to the New Larry Bird version from his Finals run just yet. Hawks by 5 behind Al and Jeff.

Edited October 30, 2013 by benhillboy

[Admin]

That would require us to actually have some sort of a media/production department competent enough to produce this. I think we will be safe from this meme. On a *totally* unrelated note...

U

Oh that was great! U U U U U U U U U U U U U

[Admin]

Damn those three games last night. The season doesn't kick off until Lethal's First Pre Game post. I always learn something, too. Had no idea boocoo was actually spelled beaucoup.Let's Go. Should be lighter on our feet getting there too without Shawty. The Shredder Show begins.

Game Preview Threads are the best and nobody does em like Lethal.

On a related note, the season started well for my fantasy team with Hibbert(s) and his 16 rebounds and 7 blocks last night.

[MrMeltdown]

They are definitely better than us on paper but that will be a season long theme. Let's see how the system works

[Nicholasp27]

Awesome preview, as alwaysAnd yeah, Mt Hibbert was great for me last night as wellHopefully Horford and Korver play well for me tonight as well

[cam1218]

I'm so glad that the season is finally starting. Seems like game 6 in Atlanta was years ago with all the stuff going on this offseason. Great work as always LW3. No better way to get the season started by reading your game preview!

[TheFuzz]

I actually think we're better on paper than these guys. Dirk may tip it in their favor I guess, but holy-moly will their defense be awful. I got the Hawks with the W.

Minor revision to the game thread uptop, I'm pretty sure we moved up in the draft for Nogs

[Admin]

I actually think we're better on paper than these guys. Dirk may tip it in their favor I guess, but holy-moly will their defense be awful. I got the Hawks with the W.

Minor revision to the game thread uptop, I'm pretty sure we moved up in the draft for Nogs

They've still got plus defenders at SF and C with Marion and Dalembert but they're minus everywhere else and big time in the backcourt. I still think the Hawks will likely lose by 10 or more tonight as we're a long way from learning this offense and employing it properly.

[lethalweapon3]

I actually think we're better on paper than these guys. Dirk may tip it in their favor I guess, but holy-moly will their defense be awful. I got the Hawks with the W.

Minor revision to the game thread uptop, I'm pretty sure we moved up in the draft for Nogs

You are correct, sir! Clearly, I'm in preseason form! :)

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Ah, the value of consumer confidence...

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~lw3

[Guest]

Hawks 360 on Foxsports - Behind the scenes with the squad and coaches - doing radio and TV spots and commercials.

Edited October 30, 2013 by JayBirdHawk

[BackForThe2ndTime]

Excited. Happy to finally watch some ball that counts. We got a new team with a different identity hopefully. Just hoping to see our players play smart.

[Guest]

We are implementing the triangle - Andre Aldridge aked Al about that? Huh.