2014 Atlanta Dream and WNBA Previews

[lethalweapon3]

See if my math is right.  The best Indy and DC can do is win 20 games if they win out.  But we have the tie breaker with both of them, so I we win 3 games or they lose 3 we win the Division.  So our magic number is 3.  I think.

 

Good win last night.  Tulsa can no longer be taken for granted.  Like Angel and the Sun, Tip seems to have it in for the Shock.  She likes to Rock the Shock!

 

I think you're right that, as the song goes, 3 is the Magic Number to clinch the East, not 4.

 

While technically, the number's based only on the clincher's wins and the non-clinchers losses [(Total Games in Season: 34) +1 - (Atlanta wins) - (better of Indy/DC's losses)], because Atlanta would hold not only the tiebreak over the Fever and Mystics but also the 3-way tiebreaker (head-to-head, Indy can max out at 5-4 by beating Washington, while Atlanta's done at 6-3), they only have to get to 3 (wins or better of Indy/DC losses).

 

As with making the playoffs, Atlanta will have to clinch (or have it clinched for them) after they play New York on Sunday and head out on the road. The Fever get Phoenix (Saturday) and Minnesota (Tuesday) next, so that helps.

 

~lw3

[Randy]

I would really rather face Indy or Washington in the first round than NY of Chicago.   If either team plays up to the potential they could be tough and we've been beaten by both twice.  Of course, we only beat Indy once when Catching was playing.  Still if Phoenix and Minny can push Indy down to 4 that would be good.

 

Its not out of the question that there could be a 4 way tie - with NY or Chicago in the mix.   But since the teams have to play each other it seems unlikely.  We have the toughest schedule - a Western trip featuring LA, Seattle, Phoenix and Chicago.  And we have to play Phoenix at home as well.  NY has a game against Phoenix, but other than that its a steady diet of Indy and Washington.   I'm thinking we clinch top seed in the east pretty soon, and that the rest of them fight it out until the last game of the season.  Beating NY Sunday would help a lot.  We do get Tulsa (at home) and Seattle (road) again, to very beatable teams along with floundering LA on the road. 

 

Bottom line - I want everyone else in the conference to lose now or at least to just beat up on each other.    

Edited August 1, 2014 by Randy

[Randy]

Shoni's family with Angel Goodrich. No one looks miffed.

Schimmel family other Native American WNBA athlete Angel Goodrich #RoleModels @schimmel23 @Angelisa_03 pic.twitter.com/qMANvInNA2

— NDNSPORTS.COM (@ndnsports)

August 1, 2014

Edited August 2, 2014 by Randy

[lethalweapon3]

Just three home games left as the Atlanta Dream zero in on their sixth-straight WNBA playoff appearance. With a win today at the Highlight Factory against the New York Liberty (3:00 PM Eastern, SportSouth) plus a home loss by Chicago later in the evening, they'll go into their road trip with postseason plans at least partially locked down. (WNBA.com says they've clinched with the Fever losing last night, but as with most things on WNBA.com, it's not necessarily reliable).

 

• New York (11-15, half-game in front of Chicago for the final #4-seed; 0-4 versus Chicago) is angling to be Atlanta's first-round opponent, having prevailed in their last two matchups with the Dream at Madison Square Garden this month. But the Liberty have to demonstrate an ability to beat good teams away from Manhattan. They peaked two weeks ago with victories on back-to-back nights in L.A. and Seattle, but have since lost by double-digits in Phoenix on Saturday and Chicago on Thursday, dropping them to a league worst 3-10 on the road.

 

• The last visit to Atlanta didn't go swimmingly well. The Liberty fell 85-64 on June 20, and their second-leading scorer was DeLisha Milton-Jones, with 10 points, one more than Alex Montgomery. DMJ now sits on Atlanta's injury list after a midseason trade. Atlanta's offense was like clockwork, committing just 10 turnovers on the evening.

 

• The Libs will hope for a big offensive day from star guard Cappie Pondexter, who struggled mightily against the Dream on July 16 but has been far more effective on the road this season (15.7 PPG, 40.6 FG%, 37.5 3FG%), than at home (12.8 PPG, 37.0 FG%, 21.9 3FG%). After going 2-for-14 from the field, the Bank of Pondexter opened just in time on July 16, her jumper falling with a split-second left to help the Liberty escape with a big home win.

 

• Head Coach Bill Laimbeer, in his second season at the helm in New York, probably cannot afford a second-straight season watching the playoffs from home. To get there, he'll have to continue riding the back of the probable Eastern Conference Player of the Month for July. Center Tina Charles is the all-time leader in rebounding per game and has moved into the Top 10 all-time for per-game scoring after putting up a conference-high 21.1 PPG and 11.2 RPG in July, leading the Libs to a winning record for the month.

 

• Only Seattle scores less then New York (73.2 team PPG), and Tina and Cappie will need major help to close games out going forward. New York has scored an average of just 13.3 PPG in the last four fourth-quarters, and have given up 21.7 PPG in their last three. They blew a 15-point second-half lead against the Mystics on Tuesday before coming through in overtime. To keep up, Laimbeer might be leaning more toward his Bad Girl, Plenette Pierson. The 12-year pro is getting more minutes and shots lately, is setting better screens, and shoots a decent percentage from the free throw line (83.3 FT%).

​

• Swin Cash Watch! As she returns to Atlanta after a brief and unimpressive stint, Cash is rebounding more (3.4 RPG in over 15 minutes per game), but is doing not much else despite a near-doubling in floor time (3.0 PPG, 27.3 FG%) under Laimbeer.

 

• The Dream and Liberty are 1-and-2 in the league for turnovers, and New York probably would be much closer without Angel McCoughtry committing 11 of her team's 23 turnovers during Thursday's victory at Tulsa. Atlanta, however, is far more effective scoring in transition. They compile a WNBA-high 10.1 SPG, while the Libs' 6.8 SPG ranks next-to-last in the league.

 

• Tiffany Hayes (career-high 27 points vs. Tulsa) continues to have a hot hand, but to keep Atlanta's offense balanced and New York on their heels, she'll need at least one of her backcourt mates (Shoni Schimmel, Celine Dumerc, or Jasmine Thomas) to make some buckets as well.

 

• Today's the annual DreamPink game, with the Dream coordinating with Grady Health System to raise money and awareness for breast cancer research.

 

Go Dream!

~lw3

[Randy]

Thanks for all the info and insight!! Looks like the playoff clinching is for real, but its simply not in doubt anyway.  A win today, and a loss by DC would move us that much closer to winning the Division.  The Lib really do need to lockdown a playoff spot, since this years draft is supposed to be weak - no tankworthy players out there. 

 

And is it only a coincidence that one of the Lib's chief competitors (the Sky) for a playoff spot, had their starting PG (Vandersloot) suffer a season ending injury when they last visited NY, thanks to an illegal (and in my book completely flagrant) screen set by Planetta World Pierson?  I don't think so, but I'm a bit biased.  Guess we better be ready for anything today.

 

Oh and there is the Dream Pink online auction.  Check out the Hawks thread "Does Anyone Want Al Horford's Shoe) for more details and a link.  A lunch date with Shoni was up to $500 (or was it Lunch at Shoney's?) last I checked, her Pink jersey $700.  In contrast, lunch with the owners was only $325, and if you are really broke, lunch with some of the other players is going for the starting bid of $75.  There are also lots of other goodies, many with little or nothing to do with basketball. (NASCAR tickets anyone?, Disney on Ice, which usually seems to roll around about the time the Finals are played, but maybe not this year since things are early)

[lethalweapon3]

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~lw3

[Randy]

It was a drag that we lost, but I think the idea is that now we just get ready for the playoffs.  We do need to clinch the home court advantage in the Division, but that seems almost inevitable.  Looked like today started out like a regular game, but turned into an evaluation of what the bench players (including some that are seldom used) could do in a real game setting.   

[Dnice]

Will the WNBA season finish before the FIBA tournament?

[Randy]

I believe it is supposed to.  That's why the season started so early and is so short.  Ends in Mid August, and playoffs are on a fast schedule.   As of now, there are only 2 home games left for the Dream with the last 1 Aug 15.  They end the season on the road a day or so later. 

Edited August 4, 2014 by Randy

[Dnice]

Thanks, it does feel quick. At least the season won't be on haitus.

[lethalweapon3]

Given the Atlanta Dream's stumbles, and how Minnesota has been hard-charging of late, it's somewhat unfair to dub tonight's battle between the conference leaders, the Dream and the Phoenix Mercury (10:00 PM Eastern, No Local TV), a Finals preview. The Lynx proved themselves the sole WNBA team capable of beating the Merc lately with a win in Minnesota last week, the sole loss for Phoenix in the past six weeks. But a big win in Arizona tonight can reset the sails for the Dream, embarking on a four-games-in-six-nights road swing. Phoenix (23-4) has won 12 straight games at home.

 

• Atlanta (17-10; 6-1 versus Western teams), still seeking to secure an above-.500 record, was eaten alive on the interior in Sunday afternoon's 83-76 defeat at the hands of Tina Charles (29 points, 14 rebounds) and the New York Liberty. Atlanta, the league-leader in offensive rebounding, could only muster five versus New York and was matched by Charles individually. It won't get much easier getting second chances against the high-flying Brittney Griner (17.6 PPG, 65.1 FG% in her last 7 games) and the Mercury.

 

• With Griner's emphasis on the protecting the defensive end of the floor, offensive boards are hard to come by for Phoenix (7.0 O-rebs per game, 2nd fewest in WNBA). That's not a big problem, though, when your team already leads the league with a blistering 49.2 team FG%. When MVP candidate Diana Taurasi (17.4 PPG, 6.0 APG, 46.4 FG%) isn't filling up the buckets herself, she's finding Candice Dupree, Griner, Penny Taylor, and DeWanna Bonner (all shooting above 45 FG%) in perfect positions to score.

 

• Griner quarterbacks a defense that holds opponents to league lows of 41.3 FG% and 74.3 PPG. The Dream bigs have to play physical while the guards must make drives inside, forcing Griner (3.3 PFs per game) and Taurasi (3.0 PFs per game) into early foul trouble. Due to their high-pace and, probably, their known inability to make free throws, Atlanta is the most fouled team in the league (20.5 personal fouls drawn per game).

 

• As during the stretches of the game against the Liberty when Angel McCoughtry (28 points and 5 steals vs. New York), Sancho Lyttle (16 points and 6 steals) and the Dream were getting an upper hand, Atlanta will need to control the pace of the game against Phoenix and avoid being Grin-ded down into a halfcourt affair. The Mercury have the ball stolen away just 6.7 times per game, a league-low, while Atlanta's 10.2 steals per game remain a league-high. Lyttle will have her hands full against Dupree (14.8 PPG, 54.9 FG%, 82.4 FT%, career-high 2.6 APG, career-low 1.5 TO/game), the Mercury's true X-Factor.

 

Go Dream!

~lw3

Given the Atlanta Dream's stumbles, and how Minnesota has been hard-charging of late, it's somewhat unfair to dub tonight's battle between the conference leaders, the Dream and the Phoenix Mercury (10:00 PM Eastern, No Local TV), a Finals preview. The Lynx proved themselves the sole WNBA team capable of beating the Merc lately with a win in Minnesota last week, the sole loss for Phoenix in the past six weeks. But a big win in Arizona tonight can reset the sails for the Dream, embarking on a four-games-in-six-nights road swing. Phoenix (23-4) has won 12 straight games at home.

 

• Atlanta (17-10; 6-1 versus Western teams), still seeking to secure an above-.500 record, was eaten alive on the interior in Sunday afternoon's 83-76 defeat at the hands of Tina Charles (29 points, 14 rebounds) and the New York Liberty. Atlanta, the league-leader in offensive rebounding, could only muster five versus New York and was matched by Charles individually. It won't get much easier getting second chances against the high-flying Brittney Griner (17.6 PPG, 65.1 FG% in her last 7 games) and the Mercury.

 

• With Griner's emphasis on the protecting the defensive end of the floor, offensive boards are hard to come by for Phoenix (7.0 O-rebs per game, 2nd fewest in WNBA). That's not a big problem, though, when your team already leads the league with a blistering 49.2 team FG%. When MVP candidate Diana Taurasi (17.4 PPG, 6.0 APG, 46.4 FG%) isn't filling up the buckets herself, she's finding Candice Dupree, Griner, Penny Taylor, and DeWanna Bonner (all shooting above 45 FG%) in perfect positions to score.

 

• Griner quarterbacks a defense that holds opponents to league lows of 41.3 FG% and 74.3 PPG. The Dream bigs have to play physical while the guards must make drives inside, forcing Griner (3.3 PFs per game) and Taurasi (3.0 PFs per game) into early foul trouble. Due to their high-pace and, probably, their known inability to make free throws, Atlanta is the most fouled team in the league (20.5 personal fouls drawn per game).

 

• As during the stretches of the game against the Liberty when Angel McCoughtry (28 points and 5 steals vs. New York), Sancho Lyttle (16 points and 6 steals) and the Dream were getting an upper hand, Atlanta will need to control the pace of the game against Phoenix and avoid being Grin-ded down into a halfcourt affair. The Mercury have the ball stolen away just 6.7 times per game, a league-low, while Atlanta's 10.2 steals per game remain a league-high. Lyttle will have her hands full against Dupree (14.8 PPG, 54.9 FG%, 82.4 FT%, career-high 2.6 APG, career-low 1.5 TO/game), the Mercury's true X-Factor.

 

Go Dream!

~lw3

[Randy]

Gee - too bad I can't like it twice!  Tough one tonight.  Sancho was quoted in the paper after the NY game saying every year the Dream falter near the end of the season and she would like to see a year where they didn't.  So would I.  I think Angel and Diana Taurasi have a kind of grudge match going (probably from their past games in Turkey), so any game with both of them playing will be hard fought.  As for me, I call DT "The Wicked Witch of the West." Not only does it fit, there really is a strong resemblance. 

 

 

 

 

http://fangirlsarewe.com/2013/10/10/villain-chat-the-wicked-witch-of-the-west/

Edited August 5, 2014 by Randy

[Randy]

The witch cast her spell, aided by her giant running mate, but mainly it was poor shooting that killed us.  Shoni needs to just grab the ball on the run and throw up her 3's from instinct.  Taking time to aim doesn't seem to help.  You know we are in trouble when Angel is our best 3 point threat.  Still I'm more encouraged now than I was before the game -since we were in it most all the way to the end.  Henry did a nice job on Griner.  I was really worried we'd have a blowout. 

 

BTW - the Merc fans were truly annoyed at all the loud Shoni fans at the arena last night.  When Shoni was first introduced it seemed to me that DT had a really annoyed look on her face, "WTF is this.  Who in the heck are these people?"  Well, we've had to put up with that for years whenever Kobe, LeBron, and last year when DT and Griner showed up at Phillips.  I remember one oaf sitting behind me that called out "Alley Oop" everytime the Merc got the ball.  Finally, they tried one and it went through Griner's hands.  I quickly yelled "Alley Oops' and he finally shut up.

Edited August 6, 2014 by Randy

[lethalweapon3]

No preview for tonight (I forgot, thought it was tomorrow... that's L.A.) but Shoni's in Seattle for tonight's matchup with the Storm. Oughta be a packed crowd for sure!

 

~lw3

[lethalweapon3]

Fortunately for me, the Dream forgot there was a game to play last night, too!

 

 ''It's great to have the fans behind you. They tried to get us going, but we just came up a little short.''

 

That's right, Shoni. Jussssst a little short.

 

Maybe they were playing possum for the L.A. Sparks tonight.

 

~lw3

[Randy]

I think didn't they quoted her accurately in the article.  I think she said something like "...we just came up a little short.  Sort of like when General Custer came up a little short."

 

Wonder why no Angel in the second half? There can't be a feel-good reason for that.

Edited August 8, 2014 by Randy

[lethalweapon3]

While the Atlanta Dream act like there's nothing to play for, the L.A. Sparks come into tonight's game (10:30 PM Eastern, No Local TV, Time Warner Cable SportsNet in L.A.) knowing they need this win to seal the deal on their third-straight playoff appearance.

 

• Former Dream (and now former Sparks) Head Coach Carol Ross will be watching this thing from home, although under much different circumstances than Dream Head Coach (and former L.A. Lakers star) Michael Cooper. Ross got canned after another listless effort at home dropped the Sparks to 10-12 going into the All-Star break. Magic Johnson and the new Sparks ownership group expected much bigger things out of the team GM Penny Toler assembled, so they sent her down to the floor to try and right the ship, perhaps to save her own job as well. They've gone 3-4 since the curiously-coiffed Toler took over, but they had to miraculously claw back in the closing moments to edge Connecticut at Staples Center on Sunday. Then, in a game that would have clinched a berth for L.A. (13-16) and dimmed Tulsa's postseason chances, the Sparks couldn't contain the Shock's Odyssey Sims when it mattered most, falling to 5-10 at home with a 96-90 defeat.

 

• The Dream (17-12, 3 straight losses, 3 games ahead of Washington in the Eastern Conference) have no time to feel sorrowful for anyone, not with the #1 seed not yet sown up in the East, and not after getting shellacked by the team with the worst record in the league just last night. A team that hardly scores at all rode on the back of former Dream player Camille Little (21 points, 13 rebounds) and put up 53 points at the half, whalloping Atlanta 29-11 in the first quarter alone, and building as much as a 29-point lead.

 

• It may well be that the tighter schedule and high-pace of Atlanta basketball is wearing down Erika DeSouza. She managed just 9 points on 3-for-11 shooting while playing mostly against Crystal Langhorne (17 points, 7-for-14 FGs) and Little. DeSouza has registered just two double-doubles in the past month (10 games), after putting up four in her first nine games this season. She also has not blocked a shot in her past three games, just two in her last five. The Storm put up 40 points-in-the-paint to the Dream's 24.

 

• Interim Head Coach Karleen Thompson played to the Seattle crowd last night and sat Celine Dumerc (4 minutes of action) early, then rested Angel McCoughtry (0-for-5 FGs) and Erika, particularly in the second half,  in favor of the Shoni Schimmel show. Shoni contributed 14 points and 6 assists (and 6 turnovers). But she and Tiffany Hayes could not keep up defensively with reserve guard Temeka Johnson (16 points) or even Sue Bird (10 points and 5 assists), a player Schimmel had little trouble with when it was merely an exhibition. It remains to be seen who will try and stick to Kristi Toliver, particularly at the start and finish of the game when she's usually at her most dangerous. Tolliver is eager for a bounceback game after shooting just 2-for-12 in the past two contests.

 

• Thompson may have been conserving her frontcourt to deal with the triumvirate of Candace Parker, Nneka Ogwumike, and Jantel Lavender, L.A.'s three leading scorers and leading rebounders. Parker is playing through soreness in her knee that troubled her back when the Dream won in Atlanta in June. She'll need a struggling Lavender (8.6 PPG, 39.5 FG% in her last five games) to turn things around, along with Tolliver.

 

Go Dream!

~lw3

[Randy]

It would have made a lot more sense to blow off the Mercury game and focus all effort on beating the Storm, instead they did the opposite.  A concerted effort should have easily dispatched the Storm, while even the best possible game might not beat the Mercury.  As for LA, second night of a back to back, after a bad loss, and there's little to get optimistic about.  I'm afraid they will end up blowing the home court, but maybe that's ok with them.  But the Dream have become a pretty bad road team, so they should not count on that being unimportant in the playoffs. 

 

The only good thing is how bad LA is at times, and how uninterested they can be.

[lethalweapon3]

(Ran outta time doing a write-up)

 

The Eastern Conference team with the best in-conference record? It’s not the floundering conference-leader Atlanta Dream, merely 11-9 in the East and finishing up a fruitless road trip across the West. It’s their opponents this evening, the Chicago Sky (6:00 PM Eastern, NBA-TV). Chicago (13-17) comes in 12-7 against the East and now has all of their stars back, with Elena Delle Donne having returned after a bout with Lyme disease.

 

• Sky Head Coach Pokey Chatman rested Delle Donne after just 16 minutes of 1-for-7 shooting on Thursday night in Minnesota. But it was nearly enough to stop the mighty Lynx’s win streak at 10 (Minnesota finally fell last night, in a spectacular game at first-place Phoenix). Chicago led by two points after three quarters and by 64-63 with just over two minutes to go, before the Lynx scored the final 11 points of the match. They’ll be eager to play a more complete game against Atlanta and win the season series that’s knotted at two games apiece. Despite their record in the East, their subpar record versus Western teams has Chicago tied with Indiana (who’s winning big at the moment in New York) for the East’s final playoff spot.

 

• After coughing up late leads in regulation and overtime in L.A. on Friday, Atlanta will have to run the table to eclipse their all-time-best regular-season record of 20-14. If the Dream pull it together and win in the Windy City, and if the Washington Mystics falter on the road in Connecticut, the conference regular-season title and #1 seed will finally be theirs.

 

Go Dream!

~lw3

[Randy]

Been out of town again, and didn't get to watch the game till today.  Still not sure why we lost.  No one can blame Angel, since she didn't play. (Oh wait, maybe that's why we lost.).  Honestly, I can't quite figure out why were are losing all these games.  If the Mercury beat the Liberty tonight, that's going to help, but we need to win a game or two to lock up home court for the playoffs, though I have to admit, I'm get pessimistic about our playoff chances. I know this has all happened before (and it will all happen again, to quote a line from Battlestar Galactica) but still its making me worry a lot.