2015 Free Agency: Optimistically but realistically what we might anticipate

[sturt]

We just got destroyed by Cleveland's scrub team in the conference finals and our solution is to bring back the same team minus bench players to defeat a Cleveland team that will have much better personnel??? Y'all definitely live in some alternative universe!

 

You know the retort to that before you even clicked on "Post." So why not save everyone some time and just address the obvious retort?

[Vol4ever]

It seems all the other teams don't have the problems we do signing their free agents. Cleveland has Bron and Live at 20 million apiece.

[atlhawks1]

So, you think the SA philosophy thing (ie, where it concerns continuity and retaining core players) is pretty much hyperbole, then? Just curious.

 

San Antonio has two things the Hawks dont have: Leonard and Duncan.

[ATLHawks3]

 

Isn't he a RFA? GS will match any offer.

[Mdizzle5]

Realistically? WLOC 2.0 

[Guest]

They do, but unless you understand something I don't (and you might), they'd need to renounce him in order to have that $1.625m cap hold to spend on DMC.

I don't think the Hawks renounce Pero, but it's possible they do and continue with what you've described. We'll know soon enough as his qualifying offer is due tomorrow. If he receives that then it is highly unlikely they renounce him.

[sturt]

San Antonio has two things the Hawks dont have: Leonard and Duncan.

 

Maybe so. But you aren't answering the question, now are you. Let me put it this way. Perhaps it's an error on the part of Hawks HQ to subscribe to the SA philosophy due to the lack of those two things. But regardless of whether it is an error on their part, is it your belief that they are nonetheless embracing the SA philosophy, or is it your belief that that's overblown?

[sturt]

I don't think the Hawks renounce Pero, but it's possible they do and continue with what you've described. We'll know soon enough as his qualifying offer is due tomorrow. If he receives that then it is highly unlikely they renounce him.

 

If they don't, would you not agree that they really have two choices: (a) trade one of Bazemore ($2m), Mack ($2.4m), or Scott ($3.3m) in order to be in the $11-$12m ballpark for DMC, or... (b) say goodbye to DMC...?

[sturt]

Isn't he a RFA? GS will match any offer.

 

I believe the key words are "...are expected to pursue..."

 

Reading between the lines with my magnifying glass, that means his agent told Woj his opinion of who should be interested... who knows whether that is based on anything substantial, but I doubt it.

[Watchman]

Well since LeBron is going to opt out of his Cleveland contract, let's just go sign him.  LeBron, Horford, Korver, Thabo, Teague, Schröder, Bazemore, Hardaway, Muscala, Scott and Mack ain't a bad foundation for a team.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Watchman

[Guest]

@JayBirdHawk will be happy to see Alan Anderson has opted out and will be a FAgent.

[AHF]

I don't think the Hawks renounce Pero, but it's possible they do and continue with what you've described. We'll know soon enough as his qualifying offer is due tomorrow. If he receives that then it is highly unlikely they renounce him.

 

While unusual, I see no reason not to make the qualifying offer and then play it by ear if the Hawks really want Pero back and aren't planning to max out their cap space on premium free agents.  As you point out, they can revoke it until July 23.  If you really want the cap space (and the risk of Pero accepting quickly is too much) and are going to pursue the premium FAs then you don't make the QO.  I have a hard time seeing the Hawks having a ton of competition for Pero but who knows.  

 

It will be interesting to see if what the Hawks do with Pero is a tell towards their greater FA strategy.

Edited June 29, 2015 by AHF

[Guest]

While unusual, I see no reason not to make the qualifying offer and then play it by ear if the Hawks really want Pero back and aren't planning to max out their cap space on premium free agents.  As you point out, they can revoke it until July 23.  If you really want the cap space (and the risk of Pero accepting quickly is too much) and are going to pursue the premium FAs then you don't make the QO.  I have a hard time seeing the Hawks having a ton of competition for Pero but who knows.  

 

It will be interesting to see if what the Hawks do with Pero is a tell towards their greater FA strategy.

Pero's QO is less than his cap hold, which is why I think that pushes the Hawks towards tendering the QO.

If the Hawks don't go that route and use up all their Room MLE on re-signing Pero then that is an option. I don't see it as likely. That guarantees the Hawks would return the exact same team - Jenkins + Hardaway. Oh, and maybe or maybe not Brand...I think he'd come back though. I'm not seeing that as a strategy.

There's still this chance that DeMarre leaves because he wants more than what the Hawks are willing to offer. If that is the case and the Hawks haven't tendered Pero a QO, then gee that seems like a completely unnecessary risk doesn't it?

Tender it to Pero. If DMC will only come back under the condition that he gets all the cap space, then you're fine to revoke the QO and then renounce Pero for your scenario.

[Guest]

If they don't, would you not agree that they really have two choices: (a) trade one of Bazemore ($2m), Mack ($2.4m), or Scott ($3.3m) in order to be in the $11-$12m ballpark for DMC, or... (b) say goodbye to DMC...?

I'd have to crunch the numbers again, but if I remember right the Hawks would have around ~$10m to give towards DMC if they renounce everyone except Paul and Antić. Take away Antić and that pushes it to ~$11.6m. Taking away Mack pushes it up to be ~$12.4m or ~$14m. This all assumes Paul takes his EB Max (I think that's very likely).

Ehh, tough call. Maybe it is the case that the Hawks renounce Pero. We'd know that almost 100% if they don't extend the QO. I think he gets his QO and then there's discussion with DMC on what he wants.

[AHF]

Tender it to Pero. If DMC will only come back under the condition that he gets all the cap space, then you're fine to revoke the QO and then renounce Pero for your scenario.

 

Great post.  Just pointing out the one risk with this scenario is that until you revoke the QO, Pero has the power to bind you to it by accepting it and he can do that 5 minutes after you tender it.

[Guest]

Great post.  Just pointing out the one risk with this scenario is that until you revoke the QO, Pero has the power to bind you to it by accepting it and he can do that 5 minutes after you tender it.

My sense is that Pero values himself more than $1.5m at this point in his life. Whether that be in Europe or with another NBA team. So I think that risk of him taking a one year $1.5m contract is low enough that you move forward with this.

Plus, is it really a bad thing if you get Pero under contract for $1.5m? I know there's a large section of the fan base that would be up in arms because they think Pero sucks and can't do anything. But their opinion doesn't matter. It's about what we think the Hawks will do. And it seems pretty evident to me that Bud and Wes like him. And further, we know Dan Rosenbaum is part of the analytics department and he loves plus-minus stats. Pero is pretty good there. So I'd figure his value to the Hawks is more than $1.5m and they tender it.

[AHF]

My sense is that Pero values himself more than $1.5m at this point in his life. Whether that be in Europe or with another NBA team. So I think that risk of him taking a one year $1.5m contract is low enough that you move forward with this.

Plus, is it really a bad thing if you get Pero under contract for $1.5m? I know there's a large section of the fan base that would be up in arms because they think Pero sucks and can't do anything. But their opinion doesn't matter. It's about what we think the Hawks will do. And it seems pretty evident to me that Bud and Wes like him. And further, we know Dan Rosenbaum is part of the analytics department and he loves plus-minus stats. Pero is pretty good there. So I'd figure his value to the Hawks is more than $1.5m and they tender it.

 

That is where I shake out as well.  If they don't tender the QO my radar will be up that Bud and Wes may have some goal of signing huge free agents and need every penny to do it.

[Guest]

@JayBirdHawk will be happy to see Alan Anderson has opted out and will be a FAgent.

@kg01 Uuuuuhhhhh...punch face.

[sturt]

I'd have to crunch the numbers again, but if I remember right the Hawks would have around ~$10m to give towards DMC if they renounce everyone except Paul and Antić. Take away Antić and that pushes it to ~$11.6m. Taking away Mack pushes it up to be ~$12.4m or ~$14m. This all assumes Paul takes his EB Max (I think that's very likely).

Ehh, tough call. Maybe it is the case that the Hawks renounce Pero. We'd know that almost 100% if they don't extend the QO. I think he gets his QO and then there's discussion with DMC on what he wants.

 

It's just reassuring to know that, for once, my analysis squares up... hehe... but yeah, I agree with all of that.

[Guest]

That is where I shake out as well.  If they don't tender the QO my radar will be up that Bud and Wes may have some goal of signing huge free agents and need every penny to do it.

Yeah, and that is really all we can do. It's completely pointless for a message boarder to put forth a list of HERE'S WHAT I WOULD DO ... OK that's great and maybe your strategy works? But we should only care about what the Hawks will do and/or predicting what they will actually do.

So the QO decision will tell us a fair amount. And I doubt we find out until tomorrow or Wednesday.