2015 Free Agency: Optimistically but realistically what we might anticipate

[sturt]

Sweepstakes get started in a little more than 48 hours. Here's some red meat to chew on--optimistically but realistically what we might be able to anticipate...

 

1) Sap agrees to take the $16.625m early bird, 2 yrs with a player option in the second year 3 yrs with a player option in the third year.

 

2) Hawks renounce Bi-Annual and NT-MLE exceptions.

 

3) Hawks renounce all except Millsap, leaving his $12,350,000 cap hold in effect.

 

4) DMC agrees to take a $11.625m contract--essentially signing for all of our remaining cap space--and like similar to Sap, 2 yrs with a player option in the second year.

 

The Sap and DMC signings takes us over the salary cap (~$70m), leaving us with only the Room MLE (~$2.8m) or Minimum Player Salary Exceptions for other any other signings. (We do not qualify for the NT-MLE because we renounced it in order to have that amount available for cap space and, thus, to sign DMC.)

 

Effectively, we will be minus four--Antić, Brand, Jenkins and Daye--from the 2014-15 final roster, and will have picked up one, Hardaway.

 

So, this is where it gets interesting... Hardaway effectively replaces Jenkins, but we're short one wing and two post players.

 

What to do, what to do (?).

 

Well, first, I wouldn't panic... of the four lost, only one (Antić) actually played any worthwhile minutes. So, in that respect, we lost a post rotation guy and gained a backcourt rotation guy. But nonetheless, it does get interesting...

 

- What was a seemingly boring Summer League this year (ie, without many draftees), suddenly becomes a lively audition for some of the guys, since it's altogether plausible that Budcox will hope someone(s) makes a statement, and roster slots can be filled with Minimum Player Exceptions.

 

- While Hardaway pretty much assures that Jenkins won't be back under any circumstances, would Brand return for the Minimum?

 

- Whither Shelvin Mack... will he be traded to gain depth at another spot in the roster, or will Budcox be too leery of the prospect of losing his security blanket in the case of one of the first two PGs going down to injury?

 

- What can be acquired with the Room MLE? Would some of it be used to re-sign Antić, or would he be willing to take the Minimum? Would some of it be used to sign Tavares, or is he actually just posturing right now but really ready to take a Minimum? Or, do we put the Room MLE in proverbial back pocket for now and wait to see how the season develops? And, circling back to the Summer League... can we really wait to see what comes out of that before pursuing someone(s) with the Room MLE?

 

Lots of moving parts. Grab the popcorn and cheer for your favorite scenario, I suppose.

Edited June 29, 2015 by sturt

[Guest]

Sap's first two years cannot be option with the Early Bird.

And I still think the Hawks bring Pero back. I don't think the competition for him is: the NBA though, it's the European teams that might offer him better deals.

All else seems obvious to me. The Hawks will offer this. Will Paul and DeMarre accept??? I'm not sure, so it might not happen.

[Jody23]

I'm in favor of whatever it will take to beat LeBron and dem. Not getting to the Finals if you can't beat them. However, I antcipate the Hawks will go to great lengths to keep Sap and DMC, even if it means moving Shelvin and/or Scott. I also think they will bring back Pero. They will try to sell continuity.

[sturt]

Not Pero's biggest antagonist here, but also not a big fan of using the Room MLE on Pero--which conventionally-speaking would be necessary.

[Guest]

Not Pero's biggest antagonist here, but also not a big fan of using the Room MLE on Pero--which conventionally-speaking would be necessary.

No, it wouldn't because the Hawks hold Early Bird Rights on him. The RMLE would be untouched in any reasonable scenario with him.

[Randy]

Maybe we need to look at letting DMC go if we are really this hamstrung by the cap.  Is the problem here now that the cap is not as "soft' as it used to be - we have new owners with lots of $.  Can't they just pay some tax?  Or did the last CBA do make that a lot harder?

 

Anyway, DMC had a great year, and until his injury a great playoff series.  But maybe he's just not worth $11 million with such limited cap space.  (I'm not saying I know - really just asking.)

Edited June 29, 2015 by Randy

[Peoriabird]

We just got destroyed by Cleveland's scrub team in the conference finals and our solution is to bring back the same team minus bench players to defeat a Cleveland team that will have much better personnel??? Y'all definitely live in some alternative universe!

Edited June 29, 2015 by Peoriabird

[JTB]

I'm in favor of whatever it will take to beat LeBron and dem. Not getting to the Finals if you can't beat them. However, I antcipate the Hawks will go to great lengths to keep Sap and DMC, even if it means moving Shelvin and/or Scott. I also think they will bring back Pero. They will try to sell continuity.

I'm sorry but Mack and Scott need to be traded for cap space! Bud is a very smart man and he has to get a better big man rotation heading into the next season. In every scenario getting rid of Mack and Scott seems like the best thing to do!

Mack barely plays and moose has proven that he needs to be a rotation regular. Get rid of Mack and Scott and bring in a better veteran big man that can be depended on that way our bench is better. I'm cool with pero coming back since he won't be that expensive but we still need another big to come off the bench that we can start against bigger centers.

this happens to be the only scenario that makes the team better as a WHOLE. No other scenario works out like this one.

[JTB]

Sweepstakes get started in a little more than 48 hours. Here's some red meat to chew on--optimistically but realistically what we might be able to anticipate...

1) Sap agrees to take the $16.625m early bird, 2 yrs with a player option in the second year 3 yrs with a player option in the third year.

2) Hawks renounce Bi-Annual and NT-MLE exceptions.

3) Hawks renounce all except Millsap, leaving his $12,350,000 cap hold in effect.

4) DMC agrees to take a $11.625m contract--essentially signing for all of our remaining cap space--and like similar to Sap, 2 yrs with a player option in the second year.

The Sap and DMC signings takes us over the salary cap (~$70m), leaving us with only the Room MLE (~$2.8m) or Minimum Player Salary Exceptions for other any other signings. (We do not qualify for the NT-MLE because we renounced it in order to have that amount available for cap space and, thus, to sign DMC.)

Effectively, we will be minus four--Antić, Brand, Jenkins and Daye--from the 2014-15 final roster, and will have picked up one, Hardaway.

So, this is where it gets interesting... Hardaway effectively replaces Jenkins, but we're short one wing and two post players.

What to do, what to do (?).

Well, first, I wouldn't panic... of the four lost, only one (Antić) actually played any worthwhile minutes. So, in that respect, we lost a post rotation guy and gained a backcourt rotation guy. But nonetheless, it does get interesting...

- What was a seemingly boring Summer League this year (ie, without many draftees), suddenly becomes a lively audition for some of the guys, since it's altogether plausible that Budcox will hope someone(s) makes a statement, and roster slots can be filled with Minimum Player Exceptions.

- While Hardaway pretty much assures that Jenkins won't be back under any circumstances, would Brand return for the Minimum?

- Whither Shelvin Mack... will he be traded to gain depth at another spot in the roster, or will Budcox be too leery of the prospect of losing his security blanket in the case of one of the first two PGs going down to injury?

- What can be acquired with the Room MLE? Would some of it be used to re-sign Antić, or would he be willing to take the Minimum? Would some of it be used to sign Tavares, or is he actually just posturing right now but really ready to take a Minimum? Or, do we put the Room MLE in proverbial back pocket for now and wait to see how the season develops? And, circling back to the Summer League... can we really wait to see what comes out of that before pursuing someone(s) with the Room MLE?

Lots of moving parts. Grab the popcorn and cheer for your favorite scenario, I suppose.

Yup and to add Mack and Scott need to be traded for cap space to improve the bench....this is the likely scenario because it's the only one that will make the TEAM better without completely overhauling this roster.

Sure gasol and LMA would be great....but I'm not sure if they both equal the talent of both DMC and SAP...more importantly I'm starting to believe that even if we got one of them it won't be enough to beat Lebron...which is the goal in the east! Best thing to do to beat lebron and his cavs is to come back with a better TEAM.

[thescout5]

Not sure how the Hawks will work this out but if you bring back nearly the same team your just asking for trouble. There will be a number of improved teams and the Cavs should be stronger since they have played together. I'd almost risk letting either Sap or DMC go and take my chances. What I would do is if Sap is let go bring in Chandler and have Horford play pf. He won't be as good as Sap but let face it we saw what the Hawks did in the playoffs with Sap barely beating Washington and the Nets so adjustments are needed. Just to qualify for the playoffs is what counts since most good teams can win on the other teams floor.

 

If DMC is gone I'd find a cheap alternative then get rid of Scott,Mack and also try to sign Chandler. I think Chandler would make a big difference with his rebounding,blk shots. Hardaway might turn into a good player but he isn't enough. Getting pounded on the boards and bringing back the same team, not good.

[thescout5]

Winning in the playoffs requires the ability to play multiple styles. Just bringing back the same team means small ball. Golden State could do both and that is what it takes. Pero just really add anything. He doesn't rebound well,blk shots or have much offense. He would be gone in my book. Spacing just find another project and have him play at the 3 pt line like Pero forcing the opponent's center out and you have your spacing.

[Carmine]

Want:

 

End up with:

[Jody23]

Tweet Added - Refresh Page to see it live!

If you don't see the Tweet here AFTER REFRESHING PAGE, then it wasn't entered correctly. Please edit and try again.

Important: If the Tweet doesn't load, please refresh the page before editing the Tweet as it may need to refresh to parse properly

[Jody23]

I'm sorry but Mack and Scott need to be traded for cap space! Bud is a very smart man and he has to get a better big man rotation heading into the next season. In every scenario getting rid of Mack and Scott seems like the best thing to do!

Mack barely plays and moose has proven that he needs to be a rotation regular. Get rid of Mack and Scott and bring in a better veteran big man that can be depended on that way our bench is better. I'm cool with pero coming back since he won't be that expensive but we still need another big to come off the bench that we can start against bigger centers.

this happens to be the only scenario that makes the team better as a WHOLE. No other scenario works out like this one.

Imo, mostly status quo won't be enough to beat LeBron.

[RWF]

A starter that can play center and/or rebound.

[atlhawks1]

We just got destroyed by Cleveland's scrub team in the conference finals and our solution is to bring back the same team minus bench players to defeat a Cleveland team that will have much better personnel??? Y'all definitely live in some alternative universe!

AND talking about Pero like he part of some solution................If the Hawks bring back the SAME club, they dropping to a 4th or 5th seed in the East. 

[GameTime]

AND talking about Pero like he part of some solution................If the Hawks bring back the SAME club, they dropping to a 4th or 5th seed in the East. 

 

And even within this scenario..... Millsap and Carroll have to more than likely take less money and give us a hometown discount. Don't see Millsap taking the Early-Bird without the player option (2 years being underpaid for a 30 year old player is not likely).

Edited June 29, 2015 by GameTime

[sturt]

No, it wouldn't because the Hawks hold Early Bird Rights on him. The RMLE would be untouched in any reasonable scenario with him.

 

They do, but unless you understand something I don't (and you might), they'd need to renounce him in order to have that $1.625m cap hold to spend on DMC.

[sturt]

And even within this scenario..... Millsap and Carroll have to more than likely take less money and give us a hometown discount. Don't see Millsap taking the Early-Bird without the player option (2 years being underpaid for a 30 year old player is not likely).

 

Of course, it remains to be seen how the projected cap actually impacts individual players' attitudes on shorter instead of longer contracts.

[sturt]

AND talking about Pero like he part of some solution................If the Hawks bring back the SAME club, they dropping to a 4th or 5th seed in the East. 

 

So, you think the SA philosophy thing (ie, where it concerns continuity and retaining core players) is pretty much hyperbole, then? Just curious.