Zack Lowe: "Hawks record will plummet this year"

[Plainview1981]

The Hawks’ win total is going to plummet from the 60 they put up last season, and the naysayers will crow about how it was all a fluke. But a team can win fewer games and still be qualitatively about the same, and I’m betting on the Hawks to do that — provided they stay healthy.

Tiago Splitter fills a need on defense, and his mad rolls to the rim should mesh with Al Horford and Paul Millsap. Dennis Schröder and Mike Muscala are a year older, and more Muscala gives Mike Budenholzer flexibility to bench the feast-or-famine Mike Scott. They’ll miss Carroll, but Atlanta’s player development staff is as good as it gets. They’ll get something out of Thabo Sefolosha, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Kent Bazemore.

 

https://grantland.com/the-triangle/35-crazy-predictions-for-the-2015-16-nba-season/?ex_cid=GrantlandFB

Edited October 24, 2015 by Hotlanta1981

[hazer]

That is precious.....

[ATLSmith]

I wish he'd quantify "plummet".  Are we talking 10 or 30 less wins?

It's going to be tough to get 60 wins, but not because the Hawks have gotten worse, the competition has gotten a bit better as well.

[Guest]

I was about ready to go on an anti-Zack Lowe rant but the content of the article isn't nearly as inflammatory as the thread title.  We probably won't win 60 but we'll be 60-win good (yes it makes sense if you think about it.)

[AHF]

I was about ready to go on an anti-Zack Lowe rant but the content of the article isn't nearly as inflammatory as the thread title.  We probably won't win 60 but we'll be 60-win good (yes it makes sense if you think about it.)

I read his comment to mean the opposite.  We weren't nearly as good as our record last year so we will be about equally good but should win significantly less.

[Guest]

I read his comment to mean the opposite.  We weren't nearly as good as our record last year so we will be about equally good but should win significantly less.

Tomatoes, tomahtoes I think.  Overall it seems we agree that we'll be good although the record may/may not reflect it.  I'm fine with that as long as we get back to the ECF and have a better showing.

[High5]

I read his comment to mean the opposite.  We weren't nearly as good as our record last year so we will be about equally good but should win significantly less.

No, he's saying the naysayers would be wrong about last season being a fluke. Lowe wrote multiple glowing articles about the Hawks last season. 

[pimp]

Meh , i only care about playoff wins.... and i want 8 more playoff wins than we had last season.

[AHF]

No, he's saying the naysayers would be wrong about last season being a fluke. Lowe wrote multiple glowing articles about the Hawks last season. 

I don't get the logic then.  He is basically saying we will get incredibly unlucky?  Huh?  What is the point of trying to predict which teams will get lucky.  His statement only makes sense if he is arguing we will regress to the mean.  If he is saying we are a 60 win team but we'll fall off a cliff in terms of record even though we are still 60 wins good then that adds nothing to the conversation.  If there is no good and understandable reason we will win fewer games (like our talent level translates to less than 60 wins) then that doesn't add much for intelligent debate.

[Guest]

This is just confusing...title says one thing...plummet?  nose dive, steep fall, straight down at a high speed...but article is different............  .

 

[High5]

I don't get the logic then.  He is basically saying we will get incredibly unlucky?  Huh?  What is the point of trying to predict which teams will get lucky.  His statement only makes sense if he is arguing we will regress to the mean.  If he is saying we are a 60 win team but we'll fall off a cliff in terms of record even though we are still 60 wins good then that adds nothing to the conversation.  If there is no good and understandable reason we will win fewer games (like our talent level translates to less than 60 wins) then that doesn't add much for intelligent debate.

I think "plummet" is too strong of a word for what he was trying to convey. His prediction was "Atlanta Comes Within One Point per 100 Possessions of Its 2014-15 Margin (Plus-5.6)." So he's expecting us to take a very small step back, but still be very good. 

[Guest]

I think "plummet" is too strong of a word for what he was trying to convey. His prediction was "Atlanta Comes Within One Point per 100 Possessions of Its 2014-15 Margin (Plus-5.6)." So he's expecting us to take a very small step back, but still be very good. 

so in other words he's trying to be too cute with his word play.

[AHF]

Article:

GET EXCITED!!!!

 

nothing to see here.

 

End of Season:

Hawks fall back into the pack in the East.  Lowe:  "I predicted Atlanta would plummet!"

Hawks win the East.  Lowe:  "I told you they were every bit as good as last year when they won the East!"

Edited October 26, 2015 by AHF

[macdaddy]

I do think our wins will be down 10%.....in the regular season.   We will win 4 to 8 more games in the playoffs than we did last year.

[Plainview1981]

Article:

GET EXCITED!!!!

 

nothing to see here.

 

End of Season:

Hawks fall back into the pack in the East.  Lowe:  "I predicted Atlanta would plummet!"

Hawks win the East.  Lowe:  "I told you they were every bit as good as last year when they won the East!"

This about sums it up.

I don't understand how you can be 60 wins good and still have your win/loss record plummet.

I don't see any reason the team would win less than 50 unless they get hit with the injury bug in a major way.