Season Ending Stats

[AHF]

I went looking to see if RAPTOR existed anymore and found this page with an alternate version of it:

2023-24 NBA Estimated RAPTOR Player Ratings (and other stats) (substack.com)

In light of that, I thought I would share our team numbers in a variety of statistical categories:

WAR

DJM 6.0

Bogi 5.4

JJ 4.4

Trae 3.7

Bey 2.3

CC 2.2

Hunter 1.4

OO 0.9

Gueye -0.1

Bruno -0.3

W. Matthews -0.3

Kobe -0.3

Patty -0.5

Vit -0.5

G. Mathews -0.5

Trent -0.5

 

ESTIMATED RAPTOR

JJ +1.6

Bogi +1.5

DJM +1.3

Trae +0.9

CC -0.4

Bey -0.5

Hunter -1.0

OO -1.3

Bruno -3.3

G. Mathews -3.4

W. Matthews -3.6

Vit -4.0

Gueye -4.0

Trent -4.8

Kobe -5.0

 

PER

CC 20.7

Trae 20.3

DJM 17.3

OO 16.9

JJ 16.3

Bruno 15.2

Gueye 15.0

Bogi 14.7

Bey 13.1

Hunter 12.7

Kobe 9.1

G. Mathews 8.9

Trent 8.9

Vit 8.4

W. Matthews 8.2

Patty 6.6

 

 

[AHF]

WS/48

CC .161

OO .153

Gueye .127

Trae .114

Bruno .103

JJ .098

DJM .084

Bey .081

Bogi .079

G. Mathews .077

Hunter .062

Vit .056

W. Matthews .049

Trent .027

Patty .008

 

BPM

Trae +2.6

DJM +1.7

JJ +1.2

Bogi +0.2

CC +0.1

OO -0.4

Gueye -1.5

Bey -1.8

Bruno -2.3

Hunter -2.4

W. Matthews -2.8

G. Mathews -3.0

Vit -3.7

Patty -3.8

Trent -4.4

Kobe -4.5

 

VORP

DJM +2.6

Trae +2.2

JJ +1.5

Bogi +1.4

CC +1.0

OO +0.5

Bey +0.1

Gueye 0.0

Bruno -0.1

W. Matthews -0.1

Patty -0.1

Kobe -0.1

Hunter -0.2

G. Mathews -0.2

Vit -0.2

Trent -0.3

[REHawksFan]

Along these same lines, I put this chart together the other day after I saw a comment from @JayBirdHawk questioning the roster construction since the ECF run.  I decided not to post it as after I made it I couldn't find the comment again (wasn't sure which thread it was in).  Anyway, feel free to delete if it doesn't fit with your thread.  

So this chart shows the Top 15 Hawks players in Minutes Played and their respective PER.  It shows each year starting with the ECF run.  My idea was to chart the players in and out each year to see if the caliber of overall roster was improving or declining with the team transactions. I assumed it was declining but wanted to see it for myself.  Instead, the chart sort of took on a life of its own. 

The color codes show red as "Below Avg" play (League average PER is 15), the yellow is "Above Average (PER between 15 and 20), and the green is the upper tier in the league which is above 20.  The 20 benchmark was more of a feel on my part as the data suggests it reflects anywhere from 85th to 92nd percentile depending on the year.   I did the same chart with WAR, PIE, WS, etc... but they all show the same general trends so I'll just post this one. 

The next to the bottom set of rows shows the total minutes in each category and the weighted average PER for those minutes. The bottom set of rows shows what % of the total minutes played is reflected in each category.  

I think there are several instructive things shown here.  

1. Trae and Clint are the top 2 players in PER every year which only underscores @NBASupes often mentioned opinion that the 5 is the biggest / most important position for Trae.  Their success goes hand in hand. 
2. In the ECF year, the top 5 players by PER were in the top 7 of minutes played.  Playing your best players the most minutes is a good strategy.  
3. The ratings for several players seem to decline each year.  
4. Solo - I miss the perceived benefit of Solo minutes
5. The Green level of play goes from 22.7 to 23.7 to 22.0 to 20.5 this year. That means that this year, the top level players (again Trae and Clint) were just barely at the upper level.  We basically had 5 above average players and 10 below avg players
6. It's interesting to track the "Core" and then the "Others" each year.  I forgot some of the "Others" were ever on the Hawks.  LOL
7. We go from 7 above avg / upper level players in ECF run to 5 the following year (excl Dieng) to 5 the next year to 6 this year but the PER ratings drop each year.  

I know there's not 1 stat the fully captures the complete impact of a player.  I know DH has value to the Hawks above the "Below Average" rating shown in the chart.  The question is how much?  Anyway, I thought this might be an interesting way to look at the year over year trend for the Hawks in terms of roster construction.  

Also, for reference, here is the same chart for Boston this year just to show their player profile.  Hint: there's a lot of yellow and green at the top. 

[benhillboy]

In my 15 years here I’ve tried to help the board become more progressive. I lament the fact that I’ve failed miserably.

I posted this before but I need to again:

https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/
 

If you aren’t starting your statistical analysis with +/- you’re in error.  When you’ve studied as long as I have and watch as much ball around the Association as I have/ do you don’t need all the variations of the metric that appear at the top of these rankings.  I understand Trae’s poor on/off standing (even negative on court during the Conference Finals run) turns about 90% of this board off to advanced metrics, and that’s terribly unfortunate.  We aren’t a serious community.  
 

Dominique calling games has a lot to do with it believe it or not.  He’s a droning idiot when it comes to articulating the game and marrying stats with film.  I listen to nearly all of the leagues broadcast teams, Cleveland’s player analyst is probably the only one as bad as Nique.

Anyway, this season’s on/off for players playing over 1,000 minutes nearly aligns perfectly with my eyes for a couple years now:

Bogi, Saddiq, and Jalen would help any team through attributes I’ve touched on many times.  Trae, DJ, and Dre are simply roster spot holders who would hurt or have no effect on most teams, also deconstructed their games backwards and forward detailing why.  OO and Clint simply need changes of scenery as both provide winning traits off the bench.  Yall have to let go of the sacred position Trae holds.  When he and/or DJ are finally moved don’t blow a gasket at how paltry the returns are.  Trae had exceptional value on a rookie deal.  Atrocious on a max, as I repeat for the 100th time since he signed with nothing happening in that time to prove me wrong besides blaming other players, management, and ownership.  Max players drive net ratings and winning, simple as that.  Our scrubs play above .500 with him out in between 7 straight losses with him and you all still rack your brains on how to build around him?  Newsflash, players who require perfect fits (which isn’t possible anyway) all across the roster aren’t good players.  Did yall see the impact Delon had on the heat demolishing the sane team that crushed us?  This is what I mean by players who are portable across the league.  If you can’t defend and play off ball (which Trae and DJ fail at miserably) this league has passed you by.  There are so many rapidly improving guards now, let alone wings and Bigs who not only can exert physicality on the game but are considerably more intelligent than those two.  Hawks are behind the curve for years to come, luxury tax paid or not.
 

I’ve hated watching Trae for 5 years worth of his career no question, but without him as a control reference I wouldn’t have known SGA (+11.4 on/off), Brunson (+11.8), and Haliburton (+5.7) would all make MVP level jumps, all having to deal with injuries/ youth/ talent hurdles these past couple seasons.  You gotta know the bad to be able to distinguish the good.  He’s nowhere near their class now, let alone Luka.  The question now is can Trae be the best player on the floor even against dudes like Sexton, Coby White,Anfernee Simons, and LaMelo?

Rant over, I gotta hit yall with some reality without the glasses every so often.  Here are just a few notable stats you omitted A:

Offensive & Defensive Ratings 

eFG/ TS

Field goals added

Dunks 

Corner 3

Screen assists & Cut baskets (one of the worst aspects of this team from a guard and wing standpoint)

Average Field goal distance/ percentages

And 1

Offensive fouls drawn 

Triple doubles 

Double doubles 

Deflections

 

Edited April 20 by benhillboy

[NBASupes]

31 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

In my 15 years here I’ve tried to help the board become more progressive. I lament the fact that I’ve failed miserably.

I posted this before but I need to again:

https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/
 

If you aren’t starting your statistical analysis with +/- you’re in error.  When you’ve studied as long as I have and watch as much ball around the Association as I have/ do you don’t need all the variations of the metric that appear at the top of these rankings.  I understand Trae’s poor on/off standing (even negative on court during the Conference Finals run) turns about 90% of this board off to advanced metrics, and that’s terribly unfortunate.  We aren’t a serious community.  
 

Dominique calling games has a lot to do with it believe it or not.  He’s a droning idiot when it comes to articulating the game and marrying stats with film.  I listen to nearly all of the leagues broadcast teams, Cleveland’s player analyst is probably the only one as bad as Nique.

Anyway, this season’s on/off for players playing over 1,000 minutes nearly aligns perfectly with my eyes for a couple years now:

Bogi, Saddiq, and Jalen would help any team through attributes I’ve touched on many times.  Trae, DJ, and Dre are simply roster spot holders who would hurt or have no effect on most teams, also deconstructed their games backwards and forward detailing why.  OO and Clint simply need changes of scenery as both provide winning traits off the bench.  Yall have to let go of the sacred position Trae holds.  When he and/or DJ are finally moved don’t blow a gasket at how paltry the returns are.  Trae had exceptional value on a rookie deal.  Atrocious on a max, as I repeat for the 100th time since he signed with nothing happening in that time to prove me wrong besides blaming other players, management, and ownership.  Max players drive net ratings and winning, simple as that.  Our scrubs play above .500 with him out in between 7 straight losses with him and you all still rack your brains on how to build around him?  Newsflash, players who require perfect fits (which isn’t possible anyway) all across the roster aren’t good players.  Did yall see the impact Delon had on the heat demolishing the sane team that crushed us?  This is what I mean by players who are portable across the league.  If you can’t defend and play off ball (which Trae and DJ fail at miserably) this league has passed you by.  There are so many rapidly improving guards now, let alone wings and Bigs who not only can exert physicality on the game but are considerably more intelligent than those two.  Hawks are behind the curve for years to come, luxury tax paid or not.
 

I’ve hated watching Trae for 5 years worth of his career no question, but without him as a control reference I wouldn’t have known SGA (+11.4 on/off), Brunson (+11.8), and Haliburton (+5.7) would all make MVP level jumps, all having to deal with injuries/ youth/ talent hurdles these past couple seasons.  You gotta know the bad to be able to distinguish the good.  He’s nowhere near their class now, let alone Luka.  The question now is can Trae be the best player on the floor even against dudes like Sexton, Coby White,Anfernee Simons, and LaMelo?

Rant over, I gotta hit yall with some reality without the glasses every so often.  Here are just a few notable stats you omitted A:

Offensive & Defensive Ratings 

eFG/ TS

Field goals added

Dunks 

Corner 3

Screen assists & Cut baskets (one of the worst aspects of this team from a guard and wing standpoint)

Average Field goal distance/ percentages

And 1

Offensive fouls drawn 

Triple doubles 

Double doubles 

Deflections

 

Your boy was the one who put you on to this. 

You are right. 

I just see things different. 

Fits really matter. 

I said from the jump, Murray and Trae just didn't fit even on paper. Sometimes you gotta fit on paper. Capela and Trae fit on paper. Even before I knew Trae was a Harden, I knew he would work with CC because of how he worked with JC. 

I agree with JJ, Bey. And Bogi part. 

I also agree with Murray. He's an excellent player but he has literally no impact on winning. He's productive like Iso Joe and if he's playing a role, he's perfectly fine and he's a great leader and everyone plays hard for him and he's a good floor general but he doesn't impact winning. He's not a championship player but he's a key piece to winning a title but one of the guys. If you need his role but you got a legit superstar, he can win. Like he could easily win a title with Jokic doing what Murray does but Jokic is the impact player. 

I do think Murray metrics in Atlanta are nice when he's at PG without Trae but he was not good as a SG on D. 

I've said it so many times on here to the chagrin of this board but Trae impact is heavily limited. It's hard to win with a -10 off ball player on offense who's also a -20 on defense. That's a 30 win impact. That's worse than JC and Capela when they were close to their prime. Trae puts so much pressure on a defense and is elite at it but personnel will be critical for him. He's even thinking maybe Wemby would help but that would also end up bad. Wemby likes being on the perimeter as much as any big man. It's not a natural fit. 

Trae is tough. I think we finally can get it right. KAT seemed possible but no more and Edey who is Trae lifeline is in the draft which is basically Trae's Draymond. A guy who can remove that -10 and at least have Trae offense at a world class level. 

As bad as it sounds, Trae ceiling was hit early and he's capped. He's improved his on ball defense l,  communication, and takes charges now but his off ball defense is still the worst in the NBA and it's due to his lack of tools and measurables. If Trae wasn't an offensive juggernaut, he wouldn't be in the NBA. 

I still think he can get better but not with personnel changes. 

Capela and that contract is stuck but I agree, OO would be more effective on a team that doesn't have the liabilities that Atlanta has where he can just focus on his game. 

Edited April 20 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

34 minutes ago, benhillboy said:

In my 15 years here I’ve tried to help the board become more progressive. I lament the fact that I’ve failed miserably.

I posted this before but I need to again:

https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/
 

If you aren’t starting your statistical analysis with +/- you’re in error.  When you’ve studied as long as I have and watch as much ball around the Association as I have/ do you don’t need all the variations of the metric that appear at the top of these rankings.  I understand Trae’s poor on/off standing (even negative on court during the Conference Finals run) turns about 90% of this board off to advanced metrics, and that’s terribly unfortunate.  We aren’t a serious community.  

Here is where I am going to say advanced metrics fails. I watched every single game. Trae carried us offensively in those playoffs. Teams threw the kitchen sink. Trae was listed by ESPN as having the 2nd best playoff run that year after KD. 

It was clear too. Sometimes metrics just don't tell the story. I say it all of the time with Hunter. He's a lot more valuable than you think and if you don't understand exactly what he does, you could completely miss on why he's so value to our win/lost record. 

While Trae has his issues. Metrics can't explain how a player can carry an entire offense like Trae did that year and even last year against Boston

I am probably one of the biggest on advanced metrics on this site but sometimes stats don't tell the whole story. 

 

[theheroatl]

LOL at the advanced stat geniuses.

 

it doesn’t take a rocket scientist that we we lose so many games to having a porous defense.

 

no advanced stat metric combing offensive and defensive stats will give you that.

we are near the bottom of the league in defense every year since 2020.

 

whether it be personnel or scheme.. watching games daily you will see opposite team random scorers get hot and them hit corner 3’s consistently.

 

GET BETTER DEFENSIVELY, WIN MORE GAMES

 

advanced stats can go in the trash

Edited April 20 by theheroatl

[NBASupes]

2 minutes ago, theheroatl said:

LOL at the advanced stat geniuses.

 

it doesn’t take a rocket scientist that we we lose so many games to having a porous defense.

 

no advanced stat metric combing offensive and defensive stats will give you that.

we are near the bottom of the league in defense every year since 2020.

 

whether it be personnel or scheme.. watching games daily you will see opposite team random scorers get hot and them hit corner 3’s consistently.

 

GET BETTER DEFENSIVELY, WIN MORE GAMES

 

advanced stats can go in the trash

This will be difficult with Trae. You can't just get a bunch of defensive players as that won't work especially in the modern NBA. 

I've suggested this but going all in on offense will give you the best defensive value with Trae. 

But you gotta shoot it, you gotta have size, you gotta have the right center which is most important with Trae and you gotta have the right coach who understands defensive schemes and situational defense. I do believe we have the right coach. The personnel just isn't right. 

As long as you always scoring at an elite rate, you are also generally set on defense. With or without Trae, a set defense is a lot better than a defense that's constantly in transition. 

[theheroatl]

36 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

 

As long as you always scoring at an elite rate, you are also generally set on defense. 

NO

 

above average scoring and average to above average defense gets you in the top 4

 

elite scoring doesn’t mean squat.

 

you think the pacers are a threat to win the finals? No way

Edited April 20 by theheroatl

[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, theheroatl said:

NO

 

above average scoring and average to above average defense gets you in the top 4

 

elite scoring doesn’t mean squat.

 

you think the pacers are a threat to win the finals? No way

Boston is the best offensive team in NBA history and I think we can be better than them with some changes offensively. 

Indy is in their 2nd full year of Hali and just added Siakam. They are early into their process and it's possible they could be contenders. 

So possibly, yeah. Elite offenses usually impacts your offense as well. If you can't keep up, bad shots, turnovers, leading to blowouts. We saw it like crazy during the ECF run in the RS. 

Edited April 20 by NBASupes

[AHF]

On off (based on the numbers above) tells me out there best players this season were Bogi by a mile then CC then Bey.  I’ll ponder that for a bit but I’ll admit I’m not completely sold on that.  CC had obvious regression and Bey was terrible for much of this year.  Bogi benefited tremendously in +\- from working well with both Trae and DJM when the other was off the floor but I think that is a combination of Bogi being a good player and Trae and DJM being terrible together.  Any competent SG would look great in on/off when those two together are a disaster so I think Bogi deserves his good number but the on / off gets inflated artificially there in much the same way that a starter with a woeful backup gets inflated.

[NBASupes]

Hawks were top-5 in rim attempts and bottom five in converting them for buckets (among the 20 post season teams).

 

 

 

[NBASupes]

[NBASupes]

Best ATOs of the season

 

 

 

[JayBirdHawk]

9 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Hawks were top-5 in rim attempts and bottom five in converting them for buckets (among the 20 post season teams).

I think that's mostly from BunnyMan Clint.

[NBASupes]

3 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

I think that's mostly from BunnyMan Clint.

My man always had bad touch but now that he's not as athletic as he used to be, it's tragic

[JayBirdHawk]

 

 

 

[AHF]

I do have to question the usefulness of a stat that says that Giannis is worst in the league when he finished the season scoring more than 30 ppg on a crazy good .649% TS%.  I get he is terrible shooting jumpers but he scores prolifically and ultra efficiently so what does the stat tell you?

Accepting that this is not a stat that should be confused with scoring efficiency and is really just an assessment of how good players are shooting jumpers, it hurts to see Bey on there.  Just a dismal season for him before the injury cemented the season as a disaster.  Trae being top 25 in shooting points added is nice but I care more about the total scoring efficiency with TS%.

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

I do have to question the usefulness of a stat that says that Giannis is worst in the league when he finished the season scoring more than 30 ppg on a crazy good .649% TS%.  I get he is terrible shooting jumpers but he scores prolifically and ultra efficiently so what does the stat tell you?

Accepting that this is not a stat that should be confused with scoring efficiency and is really just an assessment of how good players are shooting jumpers, it hurts to see Bey on there.  Just a dismal season for him before the injury cemented the season as a disaster.  Trae being top 25 in shooting points added is nice but I care more about the total scoring efficiency with TS%.

Because it doesn't take into account what Giannis is good at based on its own math

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Because it doesn't take into account what Giannis is good at based on its own math

And I value the ability to create high % shots near the basket a LOT when assessing who is a good scorer.  So I'm just saying that stat doesn't measure how good of a scorer people are.  Just how good they are on a selection of perimeter shots.  So the stat is of limited value.