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Game Thread: Pistons at Hawks (Opening Night!)

lethalweapon3

By lethalweapon3
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lethalweapon3 Grand Master

lethalweapon3

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(this'll do in the interim, until we get the Game Previews formally up and running! ~lw3)

San+Antonio+Spurs+v+Atlanta+Hawks+hwf-H8

“ATL...”

“BASKETBALL!”

 

Another season of NBA basketball is upon us! And Ooh! Ooh! Ooh! Fans of the Atlanta Hawks are as amped about the season’s tipoff as ever before.

Mr. CEO is what his title say, and Steve Koonin sure knows how to throw a hometown party. The man who Never Stops Goin’ In, Rich Home Quan will provide the pregame, halftime, and postgame entertainment, likely accompanied by at least one of his Rich Gang associates. But the Hawks hope to have Philips Arena rocking well before the pride of McNair High finishes his sets. It’s just Game 1 out of 82, so they ain’t gotta Flex. Still, Atlanta will try to leave Stan Van Gundy and the Detroit Pistons (8:00 PM Eastern, Fox Sports Southeast) feeling some Type of Way.

The Notorious SVG clearly knows the Differences between us and them: stability, floor leadership, floor balance, clutch play, steady perimeter shooting. But he does have quite a beast in his corner in Andre Drummond, the odds-on favorite to lead the NBA in rebounding after leading the East with 13.5 RPG last season, and the whole league with 12.0 RPG in the preseason. Barely 22 years of age, Drummond won’t have to wait very long to become a certified first-time All-Star. And he’ll have to be one all season long if the Pistons intend to break into the postseason, even in the muddled Eastern Conference, for the first time in seven years, the longest lotto-ball-worthy streak in the East.

Despite Drummond’s rebounding exploits, Detroit (32-50 in 2014-15) was decidedly middle-of-the-road as a team in limiting second chances last season, just 15th in defensive rebounding percentage. And that was with double-double partner Greg Monroe (now with division rival Milwaukee) and, for a while, Atlanta’s Pwn’d Josh Smith roaming the floor with AD. Going forward, Drummond (1.9 BPG and 0.9 SPG in 2014-15) will have to be less of a help defender and cherry-picker, more of a stout post defender and contributor in a more dynamic offense. His 7.8 defensive RPG ranked second during the preseason, first among Eastern Conference players, just ahead of Paul Millsap’s 7.2.

Van Gundy made his paper in Orlando relying on Dwight Howard to open lanes for his lead guard, and to find open jumpshooters around the 3-point line. He’ll need a wealthier Reggie Jackson and the Pistons’ corps of floor-spreading wings (starter Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jodie Meeks, rookie Stanley Johnson) and forwards (starters Ersan Ilyasova and Marcus “Tweedledee” Morris, Anthony Tolliver) to help expand Drummond’s impact on the floor for as long as he can stay there (38.9 FT% last season).

It was during the last meeting between these two teams in March when the top-seeded Hawks’ starters discovered the path toward the NBA Finals was not going to be a cakewalk. On the back end of a back-to-back, soon-to-be Coach of the Year Mike Budenholzer had to sit DeMarre and the All-Stars just seven minutes into the game at Auburn Hills. Detroit swung the ball around with ease and, with Hawks defenders late closing out, nailed 11 of their first 12 field goals, 8 baskets assisted, while committing just two turnovers.  And Drummond and an unselfish Jackson were right in the middle of the shocking display, topping off a 6-2 winning stretch for the Pistons near the close of the season. Coach Bud had to turn to a then-spry Thabo Sefolosha (19 points) and the reserves to get back into that game.

Detroit will contend whenever Drummond is going for more than just putback dunks and boards, and when Jackson (7.2 preseason APG, 4th in NBA) is sharing the rock and defending. When Drummond is one-dimensional, however, teams like the Hawks can make the whole Pistons team look like cardboard cutouts on the floor.

To be sure, the Pistons aren’t here to just sit back and watch the Hawks Walk Thru, but Atlanta has bigger goals in mind than starting out 1-0. Having earned the #1 seed in last season’s Eastern Conference playoffs, the Southeast Division champs got a chance to see what it feels like to live life like a volcano. But is this only the beginning?

This past summer, DeMarre Carroll got himself an offer he couldn’t refuse, and lives to tell about it in Toronto. His gritty defense and perimeter shooting will be missed, but it wasn’t something Hawks fans were expecting to rely upon when the Junkyard Dawg first arrived from Salt Lake City in 2013. DMC was a product of the Hawks’ “T.Mac” method of developing great wings. And it’s hoped that the less-rangy Kent Bazemore will follow as best he can in Carroll’s footsteps.

Carroll was a career 28.4% three-point shooter during his limited career before arriving in Atlanta, shooting 36.2% in his first season here. Bazemore was a 32.7% long-range bomber before joining the Hawks, and shot 36.4% as a key bench player. Kent also made crucial stops in the crunch against the Nets and Wizards in the playoffs, and did yeoman’s work as a starter in the final two playoff games of the season with DeMarre, Kyle Korver, and Thabo all out of commission. The continuity and offseason work should pay dividends for the Hawks as Bazemore takes over as the starting small forward. Sefolosha will come off the bench and will be at his best when he induces turnovers and creates transition offense.

Coaching development will continue throughout the season to bring new Hawk swingmen up to speed. Tim Hardaway, Jr. became Atlanta’s draft-day target, and the oft-maligned former Knick will get a fresh start to his NBA career playing across the floor from his father, an assistant coach on Van Gundy’s staff. He, free agent Justin Holiday from Golden State, and rookie Lamar Patterson will strive to become better passers, shooters, and defenders as the season progresses. With Bazemore in the starting lineup, Atlanta will be looking for someone to join Dennis Schröder as a vital spark off the bench.

The Hawks’ biggest bugaboo has been defensive rebounding, their 73.4 defensive rebounding percentage ranking 22nd last year and fifth-lowest among playoff teams. Atlanta worked to upgrade that situation this summer by acquiring Tiago Splitter from Budenholzer’s former NBA locale of San Antonio. And the early results were decent. The Hawks led much of the preseason in defensive rebounding percentage before finishing 7th overall, at 79.5%.

Splitter will also work on his range but is a superior defensive rebounder to his predecessor, Pero Antić. Splitter’s career-low 17.4 defensive rebounding percentage still eclipsed Antić’s 14.0%. On offense, Tiago sets up screens as well as Antić did while playing the roll-man role even better. In short spells, the Hawks hope rookie Walter Tavares will be more impactful around the rim than the retired Elton Brand.

Budenholzer’s pace-and-space offense has created ripples throughout the East, most notably where teams are relying on less beef at the 4-spot, and more quickness and jumpshooting skill. For about the price of a 2012 Joe Johnson, Paul Millsap returns to the Hawks and should be able to feast all season long on opposing power forwards, and opposing small forwards in the post when the Hawks go big. Behind him, the Hawks will look for improved play out of Mike Muscala and Mike Scott. After a tumultuous offseason, Scott (54.3 FG%, mostly on two-pointers) was playing with energy like his hair was on fire in preseason contests.

Likely on his way to a nice 2016 payday himself, Horford will also enjoy illustrating his expanded range and versatility, logging more minutes at power forward whenever productive matchups present themselves. The omnipresent danger of a Kyle Korver triple and an Al Horford pick-and-pop looms for opposing defenses. But Korver’s 49-49-90 shot percentages and ability to free himself for open jumpers cannot be relied upon forever. The ability for Millsap and Bazemore to keep opponents honest, and point guards Jeff Teague and Schröder to keep opponents guessing, will cause defenders to scramble all across the floor.

Teague hopes for a return to his All-Star defensive play of last winter, amid the Hawks’ big mid-season run, where he was terrorizing opposing star point guards almost nightly. Schröder rightfully endeavors to become a steady NBA starter in the near future, but first, he and Shelvin Mack must keep from getting picked apart by the likes of Steve Blake and Spencer Dinwiddie, who combined for 18 assists and just 3 turnovers against the shorthanded Hawks in the preseason finale last Friday.

As the hoops season starts, the baseball season is finally winding down. The World Series kicks off tonight as well, making the unearthing of this quote from 1980 apropos:

 

“Do you know what I have to show for 61 home runs? Nothing. Exactly nothing.”

For over three decades, Major League Baseball’s most powerful players chased the phantom of Babe Ruth, the Sultan of Swat’s 60 home runs of 1927 mythically beyond reach. With just a little schedule help, Roger Maris got to 61 in ’61. And the statement above, issued almost 20 years after winning his second MVP award, the same year his Yankees bounced back from a crushing World Series defeat one season before to win it all, reflects just how fondly he looked back upon the experience.

Maris hit just 33 homers the next season, and never got any closer than that the rest of his career. Maris knew he could have banged out 70 dingers and pulled a Mazeroski in the Fall Classic and, in the hearts of New Yorkers and baseball fans everywhere, he still would never be Mickey Mantle.

What’s the lesson for our Atlanta Hawks, as they enter the 2015-16 NBA season? Don’t waste your time chasing 60.

Last season’s edition turned the NBA world on its axis for a couple months and, after going 60-22 and clinching the Southeast Division title and #1 seed for the playoffs, flittered as close to the glowing flame of the NBA Finals, before the obligatory incineration, as any Hawks team before it. They supplanted the side-eyed Hawks of ’94 and the oh-so-close Hawks of ’87 as the franchise’s new Icarus.

Do you know what the 2015-16 Hawks will have to show for 61 wins? Or 65? Or 70? In the hearts and minds of the NBA world, exactly nothing. Largely, because the Babe Ruths and Mickey Mantles of the NBA aren’t the ones getting it done for them.

Pundits and Chicken Littles will be quick to overstate the over-achievements of yesterday, to underscore the perceived under-achievements of today. “After 60 wins last season, the Hawks are only on pace for X!” That doesn’t mean Hawks players and staff have to allow Inferiority Calculus to mess with their heads.

A 55 win season won’t be a disappointment. Neither would 50. Even a frown-worthy 40-45 wins is enough to moonwalk into the Eastern Conference playoffs at anytime, and there were no more satisfying playoff exits for modern-day Atlanta than the seasons when they won 37 (2008), 44 (2011), and 38 (2014) regular season games. History suggests a one-year stepback in the standings isn’t a measure of relative fitness for the postseason. Of all people, Budenholzer can attest to that.

The most games Coach Bud’s legendary Spurs have ever won in a season? 63 wins, in 2006. And it didn’t even end with a trip to the NBA Finals. The team that got out of the West, the Mavericks, ousted the top-seeded Spurs in seven games in the Western Conference semis. The next year, San Antoinio “settled” for five fewer regular season victories, nine less than 2007’s top-seeded Mavs, and a #3 seed… then “settled” for NBA Championship Number Four, ousting an upstart LeBron James and Cleveland in a sweep.

James would again fall short of the Ch’ip in his first season in Miami, in 2011. The next season, a lockout year, the heat won a lower share of their games in the regular season, and watched as the Bulls happily seized the top seed in the East. Yet by the time the curtain closed on the 2012 season, LeBron was hoisting his first Larry O’Brien.

The previous time Miami won it all, in 2006? They were coming off a regular season where they won seven fewer games than the year before, a 2005 season (coached, coincidentally, by Van Gundy) where Shaq and Wade fell short at home in Game 7 of the conference finals to Detroit. That those Pistons took over the #1 seed from Miami in 2006 didn’t matter.

Despite many returning players, the Hawks of last winter are not a fair measuring stick for this year’s roster. The Hawks of last spring, however, will be. This regular season will be about recalibrating, incorporating new components and new wrinkles while buying into a philosophy that worked quite well for Budenholzer’s troops last season before injuries began to take their toll. The goal to chase isn’t 60. The regular season goal is to win enough (especially on the road, and during showcase primetime games, and against above-.500 teams) and build up enough fitness and momentum to win 16 games, when it really counts.

 

Let’s Go Hawks!

~lw3

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Diesel Grand Master

Diesel

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I don't expect this to be easy.  Drummond and Jackson and all of their stretch PFs may cause problems.  Detroit has just as much a chance to be the surprise new team in the East as Milwaukee.  Actually, I like the talent on their roster better.  However, I think we're the best in the East, so if we play our game and force them to defend, I think we should beat them.

 

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