Superman vs Softman (the comparison that will change every squawkers tone).

[thecampster]

Forget the names, your emotional attachments, your beer goggles. A numbers by numbers comparison of 2 players.

Format - Player 1 vs Player 2

Age - 30 years, 7 months vs 30 years 1 month

Finals appearances - 1 vs 0

Career ppg - 17.8 v 14.3

Playoff ppg - 19.1 vs 12.9

Career rpg - 12.7 vs 8.9

Playoff rpg - 14.1 vs 8.4

Career bpg - 2.1 vs 1.2

Playoff bpg - 2.6 vs 1.4

Career FG% - 58.2% vs 53.5%

Playoff FG% - 58.9% vs 48.3%

Total games - 879 - 574

Playoff games - 89-74

Playoff record - 43 - 46 vs 26 - 48

Games/season - 73.25 vs 63.8

 

Cost - $22.4 million vs $25.8 million

 

Player 1 has consistently been a better player throughout his career both offensively and defensively. Player 1 has consistently gotten better in the playoffs where player 2 has played worse. Player 1 costs 3-4 million less per season for 3 years and is on a shorter contract. In year 4, player 1 is a free agent at 34...while player 2 is aging and will be a JJ type contract at $30 million / year with declining skills.  

Sometimes the biggest blessing in life is unanswered prayers. I think 3 years from now, Boston will be regretting the Horford contract like a night of heavy drinking at a lesbian bar.

[thecampster]

Maybe the biggest indictment against Softman is his 1.6 FTA/game last year on 12.8 shot attempts (2.5 FTA/game for his career). As opposed to Superman's 8.9 FTA/game for his career. (6.7 last season on just 8.5 shot attempts).

Edited July 3, 2016 by thecampster

[Flight]

Yeah looking at the production straight up you can definitely tell Dwight makes an impact. 

[Admin]

Well to be fair I would bet at least half of Dwights FT attempts are from intentional fouling. That's certain to go down both playing for Bud and if the rules on Hack a Shaq change. 

But yeah Al is soft as hell and it will be nice seeing Dwight banging in the post with big Paul. 

[thecampster]

You would think that....but between 2007 and 2011, long before Hack a crappy FT shooter strategy started...Dwight had between 9.1 and 11.7 FTAs every season for 5 years. The career averages I posted were skewed down heavily by his 1st two seasons in Orlando and his last 2 seasons in Houston.

Some basic math.  A good shooter in the NBA shoots 50%, a good 3pt shooter shoots at least 33%. Each percentage works out to 1 point per possession. A foul while shooting works out to 2 foul shots. shooting 50% from the free throw line is equivalent to the typical NBA possession.  Dwight shoots almost 60% from the field for his career. So technically, fouling him is a better points per possession against Dwight.  Shooting he's worth 1.2 points per possessions, FT's he's worth 1 point per possession. Now the problem with this strategy is that on possession where the foul yields an and 1. The Al vs Dwight argument is that Al yields less than 1 and-1 per game. Dwight = 3 or 4. The free throws in those cases are bonus chances to score. The better shooting percentages + the greater and-1 opportunities more than makes up for the bad FT shooting.

 

[Plainview1981]

There is no way the Hawks will be better on the defensive end. Howard's defense has been slipping for years.

[Misha Owens]

5 minutes ago, Hotlanta1981 said:

There is no way the Hawks will be better on the defensive end. Howard's defense has been slipping for years.

 

44 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Forget the names, your emotional attachments, your beer goggles. A numbers by numbers comparison of 2 players.

Format - Player 1 vs Player 2

Age - 30 years, 7 months vs 30 years 1 month

Finals appearances - 1 vs 0

Career ppg - 17.8 v 14.3

Playoff ppg - 19.1 vs 12.9

Career rpg - 12.7 vs 8.9

Playoff rpg - 14.1 vs 8.4

Career bpg - 2.1 vs 1.2

Playoff bpg - 2.6 vs 1.4

Career FG% - 58.2% vs 53.5%

Playoff FG% - 58.9% vs 48.3%

Total games - 879 - 574

Playoff games - 89-74

Playoff record - 43 - 46 vs 26 - 48

Games/season - 73.25 vs 63.8

 

Cost - $22.4 million vs $25.8 million

 

Player 1 has consistently been a better player throughout his career both offensively and defensively. Player 1 has consistently gotten better in the playoffs where player 2 has played worse. Player 1 costs 3-4 million less per season for 3 years and is on a shorter contract. In year 4, player 1 is a free agent at 34...while player 2 is aging and will be a JJ type contract at $30 million / year with declining skills.  

Sometimes the biggest blessing in life is unanswered prayers. I think 3 years from now, Boston will be regretting the Horford contract like a night of heavy drinking at a lesbian bar.

Good post, Nice breakdown

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, Hotlanta1981 said:

There is no way the Hawks will be better on the defensive end. Howard's defense has been slipping for years.

That may be true about Howard's defense in general and his suspect team defense.  However,  players  weren't afraid  to drive the lane against us, we at least  have a deterrent to driving all willy nilly.  Our perimeter defense has hopefully been upgraded with our 2 draft picks,  I haven't a clue if they're ready  to contribute.

[Ekyo]

to be fair, i think that horfords game had something to it, that is not measured in these stats. 

i still don't really get the reason why he left. 

Edited July 3, 2016 by Ekyo

[Thomas]

24 minutes ago, Ekyo said:

to be fair, i think that horfords game had something to it, that is not measured in these stats. 

i still don't really get the reason why he left. 

He may actually fess up as to really why someday instead of pointing to his sore ears as he is doing now. 

[slappy]

I really think Al played pretty solid defense down low, but he was just too soft a rebounder, and kept regressing.  Howard's defense has slipped, but from elite to good, and he is still an outstanding rebounder.  This change will help them where they need the most help, on the boards.  And, will be nice to have a center that can actually finish down low.  My concerns are that we definitely will lose shooting, as Al was a very good shooter (even last year when he stretched to 3, his eFG stayed solid).  Also, D12 certainly a bigger injury risk assuming Al's pecs don't tear anymore.  Finally, we will have to go through same dance next year with Paul and pay him max ( though I think he deserves it) and sign him for at least 4 years, as the market would do that.

 

All in all, once I saw 3 rebounds a game from our center against the cavs, I knew this wasn't a max player, so I'm good with the change.  Wish they could've gotten an asset for him.

[terrell]

Can yall please stop calling Dwight "Superman"? He has to earn that nick name again. If he even wants it...Let Dwight be Dwight for a min... Besides, it reminds me of Cam Newton..Eww..

[terrell]

And I agree. Boston will be calling for Als head soon enough. With his no post game having azz.He and overrated I.Thomas arent taking that team to no ship....lmao..CANNOT WAIT until we play Boston......

Edited July 3, 2016 by terrell

[thecampster]

So doing a bit more digging on this "comparison". I went to 82games.com and pulled up some differentials between Dwight and Al last year.

The interesting comparison is at the center position only.

Dwight posted a per 48 PER of 21.2 and his opponent a PER of 17.9 for a differential of 3.3.

At Center, Al posted a PER of 21.0 but his opponent a PER of 19.4 for a differential of only 1.6. Al's differential at the PF position was a whopping 7.4 which is what inflated his win shares.

[jhay610]

Not sure career comparison is quite apt given Howard is in steep decline and Horford is still on his plateau. 

The good thing is we will have flexibility in 3 years when alternatively, we would have had Horf with 2 years left on a max deal as he is really starting to fall off. That's a bit of a consolation prize, I guess. 

As Hawks fans, we are always hoping for a better tomorrow. 

[thecampster]

3 minutes ago, jhay610 said:

Not sure career comparison is quite apt given Howard is in steep decline and Horford is still on his plateau. 

The good thing is we will have flexibility in 3 years when alternatively, we would have had Horf with 2 years left on a max deal as he is really starting to fall off. That's a bit of a consolation prize, I guess. 

As Hawks fans, we are always hoping for a better tomorrow. 

Howard is not in decline...they are the same age within 6 months. Horford has missed far more games in his career due to injury. Howard's point production going down in Houston was based on shot opportunities/scheme...not a decline. Yes both Howard and Horford and not jumping out of the building like they used to be, but going on PER 48 stats, the two at worst are even.

[jhay610]

3 minutes ago, thecampster said:

Howard is not in decline...they are the same age within 6 months. Horford has missed far more games in his career due to injury. Howard's point production going down in Houston was based on shot opportunities/scheme...not a decline. Yes both Howard and Horford and not jumping out of the building like they used to be, but going on PER 48 stats, the two at worst are even.

Let's hope you're right, but I would say back + knee > torn pec.  It is obvious Howard doesn't move laterally as well as he used to. 

That doesn't necessarily mean he's a worse player than Horford today, but the direction of travel does not look good. 

[thecampster]

I would argue the torn pec affected Horford mentally as evidenced by the stats showing he's moving farther and farther from the basket.

[FL_BRYANT]

Everyone hopes Dwight  succeeds. Let's remember Dwight is a center Al just plays center to accommodate an undersized team. Not a fair comparison,plus numbers from ten years or so are irrelevant.  I would like to know whose numbers are in the deepest decline during maybe the last three years.  With Dwight being a center I expect him to have better numbers as far as shooting percentages, rebounds, blocked shots, plus Al is gone. I would like to see a comparison of young Dwight and present Dwight. I think this would give us a clearer picture.

[jhay610]

Isn't Al's move to the perimeter more a result of Coach Bud's philosophy? He developed the 3-point shot under Bud's watch. 

Edited July 5, 2016 by jhay610