Rare Air?

[hazer]

Summa y'all are better (have more time :P) than me at digging up deep stats. Who was the last 23 year old PG who put up these type of playoff nimbers in their very first year of starting? @Diesel?

43% from 3

84% from the stripe

8 assists

Under 2 turnovers

25+ points

Edited July 7, 2017 by hazer

[hazer]

Facing off against one of the supposed best PGs in the East, John Wall (27, playing with Beal and Bog), to boot...

Edited July 7, 2017 by hazer

[JTB]

9 minutes ago, hazer said:

Summa y'all are better (have more time :P) than me at digging up deep stats. Who was the last 23 year old PG who put up these type of playoff nimbers in their very first year of starting? @Diesel?

43% from 3

84% from the stripe

8 assists

Under 2 turnovers

25+ points

It's not little Goldie is it?!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/schrode01.html

oh wait it is! Geeez he's so inefficient ! 

[hazer]

3 minutes ago, JTB said:

It's not little Goldie is it?!

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/schrode01.html

oh wait it is! Geeez he's so inefficient ! 

It is! I actually meant other 1st year PGs in the same stratosphere as his kicka$$ playoff nimbers :P

[hazer]

Dang, those me first/I'mo get mine playoff assists nimbers...

[ATLBob]

Two ways to respond to this:

1) The playoff series was an extremely small sample size while the regular season was a much larger sample size. This was NOT his first, second, or even third playoff series. Wall, the opposing player at the same position, DESTROYED him.

2) Dude rose to the occasion and played very well when the games became most important. He stood toe to toe with one of the best PGs in the game and did his thing (on one end of the court). He is still fairly young and has lots of room to continue to grow. Things are looking up.

Guess what? Both are right. 

Also, neither perspective changes how good he will play next year.

Q1) What is his ceiling?

Q2) What does HE need to do to reach it and will he?

Q3) What does the team need to do to help him reach it and will they?

Those are the important questions imho ...

Popcorn.gif

[deester11]

Small sample or not it shows what he is capable of.  That is missed on those who don't like his style or brand basketball.  I'm in the camp that says he can and will get even better.  At least the tools are there...

[JTB]

2 minutes ago, deester11 said:

Small sample or not it shows what he is capable of.  That is missed on those who don't like his style or brand basketball.  I'm in the camp that says he can and will get even better.  At least the tools are there...

I have no doubt he's only going to keep getting better. 

[hazer]

13 minutes ago, ATLBob said:

The playoff series was an extremely small sample size while the regular season was a much larger sample size. This was NOT his first, second, or even third playoff series. Wall, the opposing player at the same position, DESTROYED him.

As I said, it was his 1st playoff series STARTING. And "DESTROYED" him? Who was Menace putting these nimbers up against, Wohn Jall?

 

Dennis (23, 1st playoff series starting) against Wall (26, best in the East?):

43% from 3

84% from the stripe

8 assists

Under 2 turnovers

25+ points

 

 

[hazer]

Dude. Is. 23. 1st year as a starter, without shooters or a C who'd set strong picks or roll hard. Forget popping. More than capable of Tenacious D, what he was known for when he had shooters and rollers/poppers when he was a backup. Followed instructions and morphed into what Bud asked him to since there was a lack of the aforementioned. Put up record playoff rookie starter nimbers against the East's supposed best PG. GTSOH... 

[sillent]

54 minutes ago, ATLBob said:

Two ways to respond to this:

1) The playoff series was an extremely small sample size while the regular season was a much larger sample size. This was NOT his first, second, or even third playoff series. Wall, the opposing player at the same position, DESTROYED him.

2) Dude rose to the occasion and played very well when the games became most important. He stood toe to toe with one of the best PGs in the game and did his thing (on one end of the court). He is still fairly young and has lots of room to continue to grow. Things are looking up.

Guess what? Both are right. 

Also, neither perspective changes how good he will play next year.

Q1) What is his ceiling?

Q2) What does HE need to do to reach it and will he?

Q3) What does the team need to do to help him reach it and will they?

Those are the important questions imho ...

Popcorn.gif

One thing the team has already done was gave him the reigns to be the face of the franchise although I'm sure Prince and possibly THJ will also have their say in that. With no Paul Millsap/Dwight this is truly Dennis team. Just like all the questions with whether we could start Dennis with no Teague and still make the playoffs were answered I'm sure he'll have a couple answers for all your new questions with the 3rd one being answered which is give him the reigns. He is now top dog and all the other questions may soon be answered with this up and coming season.

[KB21]

It is a small sample size, so you have to be careful not to make too much of it, but the fact of the matter is, he dominated John Wall on offense.  I mean dominated him.  Dennis got into the lane at will in that series, and really, there isn't anyone in the league that can keep him from getting into the lane.  People also like to criticize his shooting, and while he has shown a propensity to be inconsistent with it, he is clearly capable.  He definitely looks for his shot much more than Jeff Teague did.  Dennis does play very well without the ball as well.  Given that he is still just 23, he is not yet at his ceiling.  He came into the league as a 19 year old, and studies show that 19 year old players do not reach their peak until they are around 26 in the NBA.

 

In fact, based upon the data in the graph, the biggest jump in Dennis's career will probably come between his 5th and 6th season.  That is where the steepest slope is.  So, it will not surprise me to see him become a significantly positive BPM and VOPR player by his 6th year in the NBA.  

You have to give these young prospects time to develop.  

[hazer]

3 minutes ago, sillent said:

One thing the team has already done was gave him the reigns to be the face of the franchise although I'm sure Prince and possibly THJ will also have their say in that. With no Paul Millsap/Dwight this is truly Dennis team. Just like all the questions with whether we could start Dennis with no Teague and still make the playoffs were answered I'm sure he'll have a couple answers for all your new questions with the 3rd one being answered which is give him the reigns. He is now top dog and all the other questions may soon be answered with this up and coming season.

If Bud axes him to run, gun, defend, and distribute with shooters there's no indication he won't do as axed. Since he's done eggzackly what Bud has axed (benchings included, the kid learns). Hawks lost shooters, Bud instructed him to shoot. See aforementioned nimbers. Still averaged 8 assists and great 3-pt nimbers...

[hazer]

4 minutes ago, KB21 said:

It is a small sample size, so you have to be careful not to make too much of it, but the fact of the matter is, he dominated John Wall on offense.  I mean dominated him.  Dennis got into the lane at will in that series, and really, there isn't anyone in the league that can keep him from getting into the lane.  People also like to criticize his shooting, and while he has shown a propensity to be inconsistent with it, he is clearly capable.  He definitely looks for his shot much more than Jeff Teague did.  Dennis does play very well without the ball as well.  Given that he is still just 23, he is not yet at his ceiling.  He came into the league as a 19 year old, and studies show that 19 year old players do not reach their peak until they are around 26 in the NBA.

 

In fact, based upon the data in the graph, the biggest jump in Dennis's career will probably come between his 5th and 6th season.  That is where the steepest slope is.  So, it will not surprise me to see him become a significantly positive BPM and VOPR player by his 6th year in the NBA.  

You have to give these young prospects time to develop.  

Eggcelent post...

[hazer]

If Shredder put up these identical nimbers for The Spurs as a 23 year old 1st year starter in the playoffs, @Diesel would create 5 threads on how The Colonel could acquire him to be our retool PG of the future. Self-loathing is a disease...

Edited July 7, 2017 by hazer

[hazer]

 

[Admin]

Not about crickets it's about we have discussed this nearly a show much as the tanking discussions this offseason.

Am I wrong to consider regular season numbers to be more telling than a 6 game sample in the playoffs? For all we know the Wizards may have game planned to let Dennis get his instead of letting Millsap or even Dwight get hot. Or maybe Dennis really could get by Wall at will. That's not surprising as he's excellent at that. Where he has to improve is doing more than looking for his own points when he gets past his man. He has to look to get his teammates going because he's the leader of the team and the offense especially. 

Dennis gets a pass defensively in that series because while Wall did in fact destroy him, Wall is arguably the most dangerous PG in basketball and nobody can stop him when he's not absolutely exhausted. I can't stand Wall but he's a great player and he's a legit 'point guard' with how well he sees the floor and gets his guys the ball. 

Back to Dennis though. If your opinion is that he is beyond critique then that's just sad. He's not LeBron or Kobe or MJ. We are very lucky to have him and I think he's a terrific young player BUT if I were the GM I would prefer my PG look to get his teammates going first and foremost, which shouldn't be much to ask from a guy who can get his points almost whenever he wants. Give me Rondo without the attitude over a score 1st PG any day of the week. That doesn't mean I am hating on Dennis but just because he's good doesn't mean he's the best option for the style of play that our team supposedly prefers.

[deester11]

Been a while Dolfan...I agree with the bone headed stuff Dennis does.  Drives me crazy, but the arguments against him are...a little agenda based.  Does he have work to do? Definitely.  He's not a finished product though.  And if it weren't for he and Sap...we'd have been embarrassed throughout the playoffs. (Even more).

 

 

[KB21]

Dennis can function in this offense.  There is this myth that the point guard isn't a high usage player in this style of play.  Tony Parker's usage rate as a 23 year old in SA was 27.1.  Dennis's usage rate this past season was 27.8.  Dennis actually had a higher assist rate as well, 35.5 to 32.2 when you compare them at the same age.  

Now, Tony Parker was much more efficient.  If anything, Dennis needs to get to the basket more often, as this is his strength and is what Tony Parker excelled at as a young player.  

Edited July 7, 2017 by KB21

[KB21]

In fact, here is an excellent article comparing the two (Parker and Schröder)

 

Quote

Parker had similar issues early in his career. While his blurring speed aided him on drives to the rim, Speedy Claxton ate up important minutes during his rookie season by running the show in crunch time. Popovich even pursued Jason Kidd in 2003 to bring a more complete point guard to the table. It wasn't until 2005, when Chip Engelland reconstructed his shot, that Parker began his transformation into the player we know today. He ditched the 3-point shot altogether to focus on his midrange game, and it catapulted him to new heights.

"I couldn’t hit a shot at the beginning of my career," Parker told the Houston Chronicle. "When I start making the outside jumper on a consistent basis, that’s when I was more consistent with my performance."

As a change of pace guard off the bench who can break defenses down, having a player of Schröder's talent has tremendous value in today's NBA. Despite a dismal showing in the playoffs, he proved that last season when he got some Sixth Man of the Year Award love.

Schröder has the potential to be more than that, though, and an improved in-between game would open up a world of possibilities. After shooting 29.3 percent on 41 midrange attempts as a rookie, he made 34.8 percent of his 155 attempts last season — the seeds for growth are present. He's already picked up a thing or two from Parker.