The Gutter

[Wurider05]

If it becomes obvious that certain lottery bound teams are blatantly tanking what should our response be? Do you go in the gutter with them or do we remain respectable?  Getting rid of our vets might do the trick. I am on the fence about the whole lottery thing myself but if we are going to stink we might as well do it properly!!  We are kind of in a catch 2 because if our players started coming up hurt and missing games then it is going to make our partnership with Emory Sports Medicine and the new facility look like sh*t!!! 

[JTB]

Can’t believe I’m saying this but we are already in it....we should simply throw the games. Bud puts in one of those weird ass lineups to end the game with Dennis at SF or some shit...just lose ! 

 

As long as we get the #1 or #2 draft pick in the lottery this won’t be a wasted season. If we somehow get pick number 4 or 5, Schlenk is doomed on these boards.

[Dnice]

Get kadeem Hardison from the movie the 6th man, but alter shots and cause turnovers against the Hawks.

[StephenHawking]

We just have to get rid of all the vets. Especially losing Dedmon would benefit the tank. 

And that's the difficult part with tanking. You got those vets who look great but you can't hold on to them in the long run because they hurt the tank. 

Heres a ranking of who's most important for winning games and consequently the best trade object for the tank(only considering players who are likely to be traded):

1.Dedmon (can win us 10+games)

2.Baze (can win us 5+games)

3.Ilyasova (can win us 3+games)

4.Belinelli (can win us 2+games)

5.Babbitt (can win us 1+games)

Thats how I see it.

 

[hazer]

Time to trade vets for picks. Gaze and Ilyasovavichkovchev are peaking at exactly the right time. I’d actually like Deadmon Walking to hang around for the Hawks future, seems a perfect fit for this system. But if he can fetch something nice I suppose he’s gone too. 

[Peoriabird]

So let me get this strait...Many did not want to go the Philadelphia route and get so young that it would take a long time to develop draft pick thus the team would be bad for years. Now that we have a young core of vets that know how to play together and would be very instrumental in helping the team quickly recover from this down season, y'all want them all gone for a lottery ticket.  A ticket that everyone is convinced will deliver.  Wonder what would happen is the board's 2 favorite draft targets turned out to be no different than say a John Collins or worst a non difference maker?  Anyway, the name of the game is developing players and team Chemistry.  The Hawks will get a lottery pick which according to AHF's research is good enough.  His research didn't show that you needed the top pick or even a top 5 pick.  It showed that you needed a lottery pick which we are guaranteed. 

Lastly, I think that y'all are flat out wrong about Bazemore...He just happened to be a late bloomer and it appears as though he is finally becoming a polished player.  Y'all are also going to be wrong about Dennis.

[High5]

I don't think we can compete with the Magic or Kings if they flip the switch. We're passing them already. I think we're safe from the rest unless Memphis finally gets rid of Gasol (assuming we do make trades as we should). I'm adjusting my expectations to at least 3rd and hoping the balls bounce our way. 

[AHF]

2 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

So let me get this strait...Many did not want to go the Philadelphia route and get so young that it would take a long time to develop draft pick thus the team would be bad for years. Now that we have a young core of vets that know how to play together and would be very instrumental in helping the team quickly recover from this down season, y'all want them all gone for a lottery ticket.  A ticket that everyone is convinced will deliver.  Wonder what would happen is the board's 2 favorite draft targets turned out to be no different than say a John Collins or worst a non difference maker?  Anyway, the name of the game is developing players and team Chemistry.  The Hawks will get a lottery pick which according to AHF's research is good enough.  His research didn't show that you needed the top pick or even a top 5 pick.  It showed that you needed a lottery pick which we are guaranteed. 

Lastly, I think that y'all are flat out wrong about Bazemore...He just happened to be a late bloomer and it appears as though he is finally becoming a polished player.  Y'all are also going to be wrong about Dennis.

AHF doesn't know what research this is.  It is absolutely clear that your odds of getting an impact player decrease the farther you move down in the draft - both within the lottery and especially as you get beyond it.  

Maybe the research was pointing out that you can't win without hitting a homerun in the lottery?  I agree with that.  The corollary that does along with that is that the odds of hitting a homerun increase the higher you are in the draft.

For this draft, I would really, really prefer to be in the top 3.  Seems hard to totally whiff in that range.  Very promising young players beyond that but we could entirely whiff if we finish with like the 3rd worst record and end up betting bumped to the #6 pick. (Not saying the 6 couldn't produce that star -- more a matter of how low the floor starts getting).

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, AHF said:

AHF doesn't know what research this is.  It is absolutely clear that your odds of getting an impact player decrease the farther you move down in the draft - both within the lottery and especially as you get beyond it.  

Maybe the research was pointing out that you can't win without hitting a homerun in the lottery?  I agree with that.  The corollary that does along with that is that the odds of hitting a homerun increase the higher you are in the draft.

For this draft, I would really, really prefer to be in the top 3.  Seems hard to totally whiff in that range.  Very promising young players beyond that but we could entirely whiff if we finish with like the 3rd worst record and end up betting bumped to the #6 pick. (Not saying the 6 couldn't produce that star -- more a matter of how low the floor starts getting).

The point is that there are Dirks that go 7th in the draft and Kobes that go 13th and there are can't miss prospects like lebron that go 1st but this draft class doesn't appear to have a Lebron in it. So I don't know why this board has suddenly developed a lottery mentality!  Incidentally Lebron has on been successful 3 out of 8 times in the Championship and will likely not win another championship if you are using Championship as a measure. 

The more important thing that is happening to the Hawks is player development especially with Collins, Bazemore and Dennis.  The team is starting to play more cohesively and looking less like a team that is in need of a major overhaul but rather a team that could be helped with an infusion of talent...Something a lottery pick can provide as well as the 2 other 1st round pick.  Y'all are looking to sell the farm for 1 player that you all think is Lebron but they aren't.  Every single top players haves some serious flaws to overcome to be even a productive NBA player let alone a superstar...Just ask Wiggins about that.  If that is the case...Is the #1 pick that much more valuable than pick #10?  We shall see.

[AHF]

You can find an All-Star in the second round but first round picks are that much more valuable because the odds are that much better.  And, yes, historically the #1 overall pick is an absolute #$*#ton more valuable than the #10 pick -- even though there will be oddball years when the player picked at #10, etc. is better.

[Peoriabird]

22 minutes ago, AHF said:

You can find an All-Star in the second round but first round picks are that much more valuable because the odds are that much better.  And, yes, historically the #1 overall pick is an absolute #$*#ton more valuable than the #10 pick -- even though there will be oddball years when the player picked at #10, etc. is better.

only 5 championship players have been drafted #1 over all over the last 30 years

1987	San Antonio Spurs	David Robinson^*	USA	Center	Navy	24.3	12.0	2.0	[69]
1988	Los Angeles Clippers	Danny Manning^	USA	Forward	Kansas	16.7	6.6	3.1	[70]
1989	Sacramento Kings	Pervis Ellison	USA	Center	Louisville	8.0	5.8	1.9	[71]
1990	New Jersey Nets	Derrick Coleman^	USA	Forward/Center	Syracuse	18.4	10.3	2.2	[72]
1991	Charlotte Hornets	Larry Johnson^	USA	Forward	UNLV	19.2	11.0	3.6	[73]
1992	Orlando Magic	Shaquille O'Neal^*	USA	Center	LSU	23.4	13.9	1.9	[74]
1993	Orlando Magic	Chris Webber^	USA	Forward	Michigan	17.5	9.1	3.6	[75]
1994	Milwaukee Bucks	Glenn Robinson^	USA	Forward	Purdue	21.9	6.4	2.5	[76]
1995	Golden State Warriors	Joe Smith	USA	Forward	Maryland	15.3	8.7	1.0	[77]
1996	Philadelphia 76ers	Allen Iverson^*	USA	Guard	Georgetown	23.5	4.1	7.5	[78]
1997	San Antonio Spurs	Tim Duncan^	USA[v]	Forward/Center	Wake Forest	21.1	11.9	2.7	[80]
1998	Los Angeles Clippers	Michael Olowokandi	NGA	Center	Pacific	8.9	7.9	0.6	[81]
1999	Chicago Bulls	Elton Brand^[w]	USA	Forward	Duke	20.1	10.0	1.9	[83]
2000	New Jersey Nets	Kenyon Martin^	USA	Forward	Cincinnati	12.0	7.4	1.9	[84]
2001	Washington Wizards	Kwame Brown	USA	Center	Glynn Academy HS (Brunswick, Georgia)	4.5	3.5	0.8	[85]
2002	Houston Rockets	Yao Ming^*	CHN	Center	Shanghai Sharks (China)	13.5	8.2	1.7	[86]
2003	Cleveland Cavaliers	LeBron James^	USA	Forward	St. Vincent-St. Mary HS (Akron, Ohio)	20.9	5.5	5.9	[87]
2004	Orlando Magic	Dwight Howard^	USA	Center	SACA (Atlanta)	12.0	10.0	0.9	[88]
2005	Milwaukee Bucks	Andrew Bogut^	AUS	Center	Utah	9.4	7.0	2.3	[89]
2006	Toronto Raptors	Andrea Bargnani	ITA	Forward/Center	Benetton Treviso (Italy)	11.6	3.9	0.8	[90]
2007	Portland Trail Blazers	Greg Oden[x]	USA	Center	Ohio State	8.9	7.0	0.5	[92]
2008	Chicago Bulls	Derrick Rose^	USA	Guard	Memphis	16.8	3.9	6.3	[93]
2009	Los Angeles Clippers	Blake Griffin^[y]	USA	Forward	Oklahoma	22.5	12.1	3.8	[95]
2010	Washington Wizards	John Wall^	USA	Guard	Kentucky	16.4	4.6	8.3	[96]
2011	Cleveland Cavaliers	Kyrie Irving^	USA[z]	Guard	Duke	18.5	3.7	5.4	[99]
2012	New Orleans Hornets	Anthony Davis^	USA	Forward/Center	Kentucky	13.5	8.2	1.0	[100]
2013	Cleveland Cavaliers	Anthony Bennett	CAN	Forward	UNLV	4.2	3.0	0.3	[101]
2014	Cleveland Cavaliers	Andrew Wiggins	CAN	Forward/Guard	Kansas	16.9	4.6	2.1	[102]
2015	Minnesota Timberwolves	Karl-Anthony Towns	DOM[aa]	Center	Kentucky	18.3	10.4	2.0	[103]
2016	Philadelphia 76ers	Ben Simmons	AUS[ab]	Forward	LSU	—	—	—	[104]
2017	Chicago Bulls	Markelle Fultz	USA	Gu

[Peoriabird]

4 players drafted 10th played on championship teams

 

2017 Zach Collins, Gonzaga – Sacramento Kings
2016 Thon Maker, Canada – Milwaukee Bucks
2015 Justise Winslow, Duke – Miami HEAT
2014 Elfrid Payton, Louisiana Layfayette – Philadelphia 76ers
2013 C.J. McCollum, Lehigh – Portland Trail Blazers
2012 Austin Rivers, UNC – New Orleans Hornets
2011 Jimmer Fredette, BYU – Milwaukee Bucks
2010 Paul George, Fresno State – Indiana Pacers

2000’s

2009 Brandon Jennings, Italy – Milwaukee Bucks
2008 Brook Lopez, Stanford – New Jersey Nets
2007 Spencer Hawes, Washington – Sacramento Kings
2006 Saer Sene, Senegal – Seattle Supersonics
2005 Andrew Bynum, St. Joseph (NJ) HS – L.A. Lakers
2004 Luke Jackson, Oregon – Cleveland Cavaliers
2003 Jarvis Hayes, Georgia – Washington Wizards
2002 Caron Butler, Connecticut – Miami HEAT
2001 Joe Johnson, Arkansas – Boston Celtics
2000 Keyon Dooling, Missouri – Orlando Magic

1990’s

1999 Jason Terry, Arizona – Atlanta Hawks
1998 Paul Pierce, Kansas – Boston Celtics
1997 Danny Fortson, Cincinnati – Milwaukee Bucks
1996 Erick Dampier, Mississippi State – Indiana Pacers
1995 Kurt Thomas, Texas Christian – Miami HEAT
1994 Eddie Jones, Temple – L.A. Lakers
1993 Lindsey Hunter, Jackson State – Detroit Pistons
1992 Adam Keefe, Stanford – Atlanta Hawks
1991 Brian Williams, Arizona – Orlando Magic
1990 Rumeal Robinson, Michigan – Atlanta Hawks

1980’s

1989 Pooh Richardson, UCLA – Minnesota Timberwolves
1988 Willie Anderson, Georgia – San Antonio Spurs
1987 Horace Grant, Clemson – Chicago Bulls

[AHF]

Thank you for proving the point.   Let's look at those players and see which ones were key to winning rings and which were replaceable role players:

David Robinson - MVP, DPOY, 10x All-Star, 11x All-NBA, 7x All-NBA Defense

Hakeem Olajuwon - MVP, Finals MVP, 2x DPOY, 12x All-NBA, 9x All-NBA Defense

Shaq - MVP, 3x Finals MVP, 15x All-Star, 14x All-NBA, 3x All-NBA Defense

Tim Duncan - 2x MVP, 3x Finals MVP, 15x All-Star, 15x All-NBA, 15x All-NBA Defense

LeBron James - 4x MVP, 3x Finals MVP, 13x All-Star, 13x All-NBA, 7x All-NBA Defense

 

Andrew Bynum, Horace Grant, Jason Terry Combined:  No MVP, No Finals MVP, 2x All-Star, 1x All-NBA, 4x All-NBA Defense

Paul Pierce:  No MVP, 1 Finals MVP, 10x All-Star, 4x All-NBA, No All-NBA Defense

 

#1 Picks Who Won Rings:

5 HOFers.  5 MVPs.  They won a dozen championships as the best player on their team and have 10 Finals MVP awards.  There are several more MVPs who were the best players on teams that made the finals that aren't on the list.

#10 Picks Who Won Rings:

1 HOF.  0 MVPs.  They did not win a single championship as the best player on their team but did scrape together one finals MVP.  Not a single #10 pick on that list has ever come close to winning an MVP.

[Peoriabird]

Correction I did restrict it to last 30 years.  Olajuwan was not drafted in the last 30 drafts

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Peoriabird said:

Correction I did restrict is to last 30 years.  Olajuwan was not drafted in the last 30 drafts

It just gets more lopsided if you keep going back with Hakeem, Magic, etc.  Basic analysis doesn't change.  The #10 guys were role players.  The #1 guys were superstars.

[Peoriabird]

17 minutes ago, AHF said:

Thank you for proving the point.   Let's look at those players and see which ones were key to winning rings and which were replaceable role players:

David Robinson - MVP, DPOY, 10x All-Star, 11x All-NBA, 7x All-NBA Defense

Hakeem Olajuwon - MVP, Finals MVP, 2x DPOY, 12x All-NBA, 9x All-NBA Defense

Shaq - MVP, 3x Finals MVP, 15x All-Star, 14x All-NBA, 3x All-NBA Defense

Tim Duncan - 2x MVP, 3x Finals MVP, 15x All-Star, 15x All-NBA, 15x All-NBA Defense

LeBron James - 4x MVP, 3x Finals MVP, 13x All-Star, 13x All-NBA, 7x All-NBA Defense

 

Andrew Bynum, Horace Grant, Jason Terry Combined:  No MVP, No Finals MVP, 2x All-Star, 1x All-NBA, 4x All-NBA Defense

Paul Pierce:  No MVP, 1 Finals MVP, 10x All-Star, 4x All-NBA, No All-NBA Defense

 

#1 Picks Who Won Rings:

5 HOFers.  5 MVPs.  They won a dozen championships as the best player on their team and have 10 Finals MVP awards.  There are several more MVPs who were the best players on teams that made the finals that aren't on the list.

#10 Picks Who Won Rings:

1 HOF.  0 MVPs.  They did not win a single championship as the best player on their team but did scrape together one finals MVP.  Not a single #10 pick on that list has ever come close to winning an MVP.

4 over 30 years!  pretty low yield and the players you mentioned were clear #1 over all draft picks.  There are no David Robinsons, Tim Duncans, Shaqs, or Lebron James in this year's draft.

[AHF]

18 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

4 over 30 years!  pretty low yield and the players you mentioned were clear #1 over all draft picks.  There are no David Robinsons, Tim Duncans, Shaqs, or Lebron James in this year's draft.

They won a full 12 championships over 30 or 40% of all championships won in that time and that doesn't even count rings won by previously drafted #1 picks like Hakeem.

Pretending like one stud player who isn't at their level and 3 role players who were never the best player on a playoff team, let alone a championship one, is a joke.

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

They won a full 12 championships over 30 or 40% of all championships won in that time and that doesn't even count rings won by previously drafted #1 picks like Hakeem and Thomas.

Its still 4 players out of 30 picks which is the point. 13% chance of getting that caliber of player. probably less when you don't have a consensus #1

[Peoriabird]

Plus a fella by the name of Jordan was drafted after Hakeem in the same draft and accomplished a tad bit more

[AHF]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

Its still 4 players out of 30 picks which is the point

The point is how to win a ring.  You better have an MVP caliber player as the best guy on your team.  You've got a handful of #1 picks that won basically half the championships over the last 30 years.  You've got other #1 picks who were MVPSs or the best player on teams that made the finals but lost (Dwight, AI, Rose, etc.).

It isn't a question of whether your odds are great.  No pick has great odds.  The question is how to maximize your odds of getting impact players.  The #1 pick is heads and shoulders above the #10.