Dennis Schröder: Dwight Howard Only Plays Well Against Former Teams

[TheNorthCydeRises]

14 hours ago, MaceCase said:

Hypebole:

http://stats.nba.com/players/playtype-post-up/?sort=PPP&dir=1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&CF=PossG*GE*3

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/howardw01.html

https://swarmandsting.com/2017/12/05/charlotte-hornets-need-stop-posting-dwight-howard/

 

I guess when you continually fail to properly address step 1, choosing instead to create and attack false narratives, you find yourself in these predicaments.  But much success to you and your job though.

The PPP stat shows that he was a below average guy from a PPP standpoint, when receiving the ball in the post.  The two factors with that, has to do with his turnover rate and his FT rate.  This still doesn't mean that if you didn't get him the ball more, that it would be more beneficial to the team. 

The overall numbers flat out show that when you make the commitment to get him the ball, not only does he produce, it helps his team.  Even if the overall efficiency isn't there, the production is.  And on a team where only 1 guy consistently produces ( Kemba ), they need that.  We needed that last season, when guys were struggling with their jumpshot.

As for the article, it's interesting how things change in a month's time.

https://swarmandsting.com/2018/01/14/charlotte-hornets-mid-season-report-card-grades/

 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Dwight definitely solved the issue with the Hawks.  We couldn't rebound worth crap.  And we had no post presence around the rim.  He solved both of those things.

Yet, the offense was 27th in the league, with two of the big reasons were the Hawks being 28th in the league in turnovers, and 23rd in the league in 3 point shooting.  One guy played as about as bad as any starting SF in the league for a 2 month stretch.   The rookie SF didn't get a chance, until the starter was just so bad, they had no other choice.  The backup PG was atrocious.  The starting PG improved, but had his head messed with a little by the coach.  And the All-Star PF had one of his less efficient seasons in 8 years.

Honestly, if it wasn't for the steady play of Dwight, and the mid-season emergence of Tim Hardaway, we miss the playoffs.

But the correlation everyone keeps coming back to, is that Dwight didn't help the team?  Dwight did his job.  All of the numbers and the game tape shows that.  His play in the playoffs was subpar.  That, I can't defend.  Even if the coach refused to get him more touches, he still could've played better.  Maybe he was sulking.  I don't know.

To me, it's just a lazy narrative to act like he didn't help us, then see the shape that we're in now.  We're a bottom 6 team defensively, instead of being a top 5 defensive team.   And we're slightly better ( by the numbers ) offensively, mainly due to the increase in 3 point shooting.

Schlenk knew that if he got rid of Millsap and Howard, you'd take the defensive soul away from the team.  And by not re-signing Hardaway, you take away the one guy that could explode for a big game on any give night.  Even if all 3 of those guys had their flaws, all 3 helped the team.

Another advanced stat in Dwight's favor last year.  Estimated Wins Added.  His 11.3 EWA led the Hawks, and was 32nd in the league

http://insider.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/sort/VORPe/year/2017

 

 

We were much worse with Dwight than with Al.  Dwight helped us achieve a the worst point differential the Hawks have had since 2007-08.  He absolutely helped the team be better than they would have been without him but he didn't help them be good.  Pure mediocrity after being above average the prior year.

He solved the rebounding problem but created problems with ball movement and pick and roll D that left us worse in the net.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

27 minutes ago, davis171 said:

Dude you literally had guys in Houston saying you had to pick a side because Dwight is to petty to play in the pick and roll with James Harden who even then showed he isn't half the player Harden is. He was just like Isaiah Thomas when he went to the Cavs thought he was 1a to Hardens 1b and it was more Harden 1 Dwight 2 no 1a or 1b just 1.

This article in 2016, citing the problems with the Rockets, is typical of the narrative that people bestow on Dwight.  I was a believe in this narrative, until I actually got to see him play on a nightly basis.

https://www.inquisitr.com/2786209/rockets-trade-rumors-dwight-howard-deal-likely-as-houston-rockets-fall-out-of-playoff-spot/

Here is the box score for the game in question.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201602100POR.html

The play by play of that game shows that Houston was right with Portland in that 1st quarter, led by Dwight and his 11 early points.  Houston up by 4.  As soon as he leaves the game, Portland battles back to tie the game at the end of 1.

Dwight starts the 2nd quarter, with Harden on the bench.  Dwight comes in and still does work.  By the time he scores his 6th point in the quarter ( for a total of 17 points ), the Rockets are back up 3.  The game is tied at 40 when Harden comes back in.  Rockets are then outscored 17 - 6 to end the half, and are down by 11.  Why?  Turnovers.

Dwight is still on the floor, but he doesn't get the ball like he had in the 1st quarter.  "Somebody" needs to get their points.  That guy ( Harden ) didn't score a single point in the 2nd quarter, and committed 3 turnovers that led to 6 Portland points.

The 2nd half was a turnover fest as well.  The Rockets made a little run in the 4th, but Portland pulled away.

 

Final stats for Houston:

 

Dwight: 28 pts - 13 rebs ( 13 - 17 FG ) . . . but ( -24 ) for the game

Harden:  34 pts - 11 asst - 9 rebs . . but 8 turnovers

Rest of the team:  no one else in double figures scoring, and shot a combined 14 - 39 FG

Narrative:  "Look!!  They were -24 with Dwight on the floor.  He MUST be the issue."

 

[davis171]

7 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

This article in 2016, citing the problems with the Rockets, is typical of the narrative that people bestow on Dwight.  I was a believe in this narrative, until I actually got to see him play on a nightly basis.

https://www.inquisitr.com/2786209/rockets-trade-rumors-dwight-howard-deal-likely-as-houston-rockets-fall-out-of-playoff-spot/

Here is the box score for the game in question.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201602100POR.html

The play by play of that game shows that Houston was right with Portland in that 1st quarter, led by Dwight and his 11 early points.  Houston up by 4.  As soon as he leaves the game, Portland battles back to tie the game at the end of 1.

Dwight starts the 2nd quarter, with Harden on the bench.  Dwight comes in and still does work.  By the time he scores his 6th point in the quarter ( for a total of 17 points ), the Rockets are back up 3.  The game is tied at 40 when Harden comes back in.  Rockets are then outscored 17 - 6 to end the half, and are down by 11.  Why?  Turnovers.

Dwight is still on the floor, but he doesn't get the ball like he had in the 1st quarter.  "Somebody" needs to get their points.  That guy ( Harden ) didn't score a single point in the 2nd quarter, and committed 3 turnovers that led to 6 Portland points.

The 2nd half was a turnover fest as well.  The Rockets made a little run in the 4th, but Portland pulled away.

 

Final stats for Houston:

 

Dwight: 28 pts - 13 rebs ( 13 - 17 FG ) . . . but ( -24 ) for the game

Harden:  34 pts - 11 asst - 9 rebs . . but 8 turnovers

Rest of the team:  no one else in double figures scoring, and shot a combined 14 - 39 FG

Narrative:  "Look!!  They were -24 with Dwight on the floor.  He MUST be the issue."

 

I'm laughing you can't seriously take a single game and decide who is better! Nothing you will say will convince me Dwight when He and Harden were playing together was he the better player and he 100% believed he was. He came co ATL to try and average 20-15 again when he isn't that player anymore he is a situational player being paid 23 million dollars.

Edited March 25, 2018 by davis171

[TheNorthCydeRises]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

We were much worse with Dwight than with Al.  Dwight helped us achieve a the worst point differential the Hawks have had since 2007-08.  He absolutely helped the team be better than they would have been without him but he didn't help them be good.  Pure mediocrity after being above average the prior year.

He solved the rebounding problem but created problems with ball movement and pick and roll D that left us worse in the net.

This team started the season last year 9 - 2, with Dwight balling and just about everyone playing well.  Once everyone else started to suck, that's when the team started to become highly inconsistent.

This is a good article, when the Hawks were playing well to start the 2016 - 17 campaign.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dwight-howard-has-transformed-the-hawks/

[davis171]

2 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

This team started the season last year 9 - 2, with Dwight balling and just about everyone playing well.  Once everyone else started to suck, that's when the team started to become highly inconsistent.

This is a good article, when the Hawks were playing well to start the 2016 - 17 campaign.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dwight-howard-has-transformed-the-hawks/

seriously... it is an 11 game sample size at the beginning of the season that has 0 impact later in the season. Tatum shot 50% from 3 for the first 2 months think he is going to be the best 3pt shooter ever?

[AHF]

8 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

This team started the season last year 9 - 2, with Dwight balling and just about everyone playing well.  Once everyone else started to suck, that's when the team started to become highly inconsistent.

This is a good article, when the Hawks were playing well to start the 2016 - 17 campaign.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dwight-howard-has-transformed-the-hawks/

SSS

[TheNorthCydeRises]

3 minutes ago, davis171 said:

seriously... it is an 11 game sample size at the beginning of the season that has 0 impact later in the season. Tatum shot 50% from 3 for the first 2 months think he is going to be the best 3pt shooter ever?

LOL . . . without that start, we miss the playoffs.  We actually started out 9 - 2 . . . then went 1 - 10 . . then got out act together after Christmas and won 11 out of 13.  Then we go on the losing streak when Millsap got hurt.  Last year was a straight roller coaster.

Every game matters.

[davis171]

5 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

LOL . . . without that start, we miss the playoffs.  We actually started out 9 - 2 . . . then went 1 - 10 . . then got out act together after Christmas and won 11 out of 13.  Then we go on the losing streak when Millsap got hurt.  Last year was a straight roller coaster.

Every game matters.

LMAO That by no means it is sustainable. just like Tatum's 3pt shooting wasn't sustainable. I'm comparing a 9-2 start to Tatum's 3pt shooting both inflated due to a hot streak (when most great teams aren't trying). Boston started the season with 10+ straight wins so they are the best team in the NBA? 

Edited March 25, 2018 by davis171

[AHF]

11 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

LOL . . . without that start, we miss the playoffs.  We actually started out 9 - 2 . . . then went 1 - 10 . . then got out act together after Christmas and won 11 out of 13.  Then we go on the losing streak when Millsap got hurt.  Last year was a straight roller coaster.

Every game matters.

Every game matters both the good and the bad.  The net was a negative point differential.  Worse than we had been in almost a decade.   Not all his fault but he was a step down in impact from Horford.

[MaceCase]

1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

The PPP stat shows that he was a below average guy from a PPP standpoint, when receiving the ball in the post.  The two factors with that, has to do with his turnover rate and his FT rate.  This still doesn't mean that if you didn't get him the ball more, that it would be more beneficial to the team. 

The overall numbers flat out show that when you make the commitment to get him the ball, not only does he produce, it helps his team.  Even if the overall efficiency isn't there, the production is.  And on a team where only 1 guy consistently produces ( Kemba ), they need that.  We needed that last season, when guys were struggling with their jumpshot.

As for the article, it's interesting how things change in a month's time.

https://swarmandsting.com/2018/01/14/charlotte-hornets-mid-season-report-card-grades/

 

No, it shows that even from a FG% perspective he’s sub par which disproves the whole “he’ll score 50% in the post if you just give him the ball” theory.  The Overall numbers show that he is down across all efficiency and a good chunk of counting stats across the board so honestly, continue to argue the facts and create a narrative where if a player scores 50 points on 50 shots that there’s only the positive of the 50 points and ignore all the negatives that come with taking 50 shots to get there. 

[DBac]

Here

EFG with Dwight vs without Dwight

EFG with Millsap vs without Millsap

EFG with Schröder vs without Schröder

 

 

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

18 hours ago, DBac said:

Here

EFG with Dwight vs without Dwight

EFG with Millsap vs without Millsap

EFG with Schröder vs without Schröder

 

 

 

First off, thank you for introducing me to a website that I didn't know about.  I can play around with that a little. 

But once again, I think you're missing something significant here.   League average eFG% in the 2016 - 17 season was .514 ( this season it is running at .527 ).  The Hawks eFG% in 2016 - 17 was .504 ( 19th in the league ).  This season, it's at .512 ( 26th in the league )

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats.html

In the 1st link, it definitely shows that some players eFG% slighly dropped with Howard on the floor, whether it was his fault or not.   In the case of Dennis, if he has to rely more on his midrange jumper on the pick and roll ( which he became pretty good at last year ) because defenders would sag off Dennis to protect against the lob to Dwight, you can see the slight drop off in percentage. 

John Collins had this same effect on Dennis this season:

https://www.pbpstats.com/player-on-off?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamId=1610612737&PlayerId=1628381&Stat=EfgPct

As you can see, Schröder's eFG% with Collins in the game was a below average .443.  With Collins out of the game, it rose to a still below average .485. 

In fact, if you look at that link with Collins, he supposedly had the same effect on his teammates eFG% that Dwight did.  Does that means that John Collins has a negative effect on the Hawks offense?  Even if the eFG% rose with Collins off the floor, the team was still below average. 

And maybe, just maybe, the TRUE ISSUE is that the team's offense doesn't play toward what is its actual strength.  This has been the beef of myself, Diesel, Peoriabird, Volman, and a few others on this site, for over year now.  And while I don't agree "all the way" with it, this is also why Diesel criticizes Dennis.  As the PG, it's his job to get the ball to the right people in the right spots.

To me, this is a clear indication that Bud is trying to run an offense that he really doesn't have the personnel to play.  Yes, when you have Kyle Korver and Demarre Carroll on the wings bombing away at a 40% clip, you can play the style that he wants to run.  But when your team overall can't shoot the basketball, or has problems creating their own shots, it makes no sense to be running a "pace and space" offense. 

That's why when Dwight was scoring the basketball last year, we were a +.500 basketball team.  And when he didn't score, we were below .500.

Next season, if the team finally decides to increase Collins' usage in this offense, you'll see the team win more as well.

 

 

 

 

[davis171]

You are acting like Dwight is still an all star it has been 4 years since he played at that level. The team isn't winning games on purpose lol... Answer this do you think Dwight can be a top 3 option on a championship team? That would mean he is equal or better than Kevin Love, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green. I at this point in their careers and where the NBA is would much rather have all 3 of them.

Edited March 26, 2018 by davis171

[DBac]

@TheNorthCydeRises

Quote

In fact, if you look at that link with Collins, he supposedly had the same effect on his teammates eFG% that Dwight did.  Does that means that John Collins has a negative effect on the Hawks offense?  Even if the eFG% rose with Collins off the floor, the team was still below average. 

It may. He's a rookie, that's not out of the question. The obvious difference being him being able to evolve as a player (shooting, passing) while Dwight is gonna be this same guy for the rest of his career (perhaps with a few more midrange jumpers sprinkled in). You can look at team pts per 100 possessions with him in on offense and it gets worse with him there as well.

 

Quote

And maybe, just maybe, the TRUE ISSUE is that the team's offense doesn't play toward what is its actual strength.

Truth. Signing Dwight was a huge misstep in terms of what made this team great. Bud needs bigs that can space the floor, create for others, and move (both on offense and defense). Dwight is none of those things. Like I said before, Dwight would rather post up than run the PnR where he would be great.

Look at Dwight's PnR frequency in Houston, ATL, Charlotte (9.3, 10.1, 12.0) compared to Clint Capela's (18.5, 28, 32.8) or John Collins/Dewayne Dedmon this year (23.3, 26.6). Not to mention Steve Nash publicly outing him for refusing to run the PnR. That's a Dwight problem, not a Bud problem. Posting up is not a strength of his.

 

Quote

Next season, if the team finally decides to increase Collins' usage in this offense, you'll see the team win more as well.

He would probably have improved so this isn't crazy. I'm sure they hope he can one day be a guy who can play inside and out while passing similar to Millsap. Already seeing some corner 3s and nice passes from him.

 

I do have complains with Bud though. His GM stint was dreadful. The defensive scheme has gotta change. Teams have been shredding them with threes for too long now, I don't even wanna say its because they don't have the cats to run that anymore because it's been like this since the ECF. I don't like this affinity for dribble driving PGs, wanna see a more dynamic ball handler.

Edited March 26, 2018 by DBac

[Lurker]

21 minutes ago, DBac said:

The defensive scheme has gotta change. Teams have been shredding them with threes for too long now, I don't even wanna say its because they don't have the cats to run that anymore because it's been like this since the ECF.

Wish some people would realize this. It had nothing to do with injuries or people going and really actually even started before then. I'm lazy but I remember an article that said Cleveland made an adjustment after the first quarter of the last regular season game in 2015 they played against Atlanta that may prove key that involved popping Kevin Love out for open three point shots. The holes in the defensive scheme that Bud runs were found 3 years ago and he has never adjusted to them. 

And it's not to talk negatively about Bud, it's just true, sorry. You can actually make an argument he doesn't really run the SAS system as from what I see with San Antonio it's about the strengths and not about sticking to a system that features the guards. However, you can also make the argument that not letting Dwight get the touches down in the low post he wants is trying to stick to strengths as Dwight in the post is not a strength. Dwight in the PNR would be if he'd run it and he hasn't even with pass first'ers at PG.

(Collins in the post may be a strength and it's very odd that he hasn't been allowed to post more)

It's not a perfect world but some people need to realize that Bud isn't 100% hot stuff and some need to realize that a team needs balance instead of a lot of boarding or a lot of shooting (unless you're Golden State lmao). It'd calm a lot of the flamethrowing we see on here. 

[Diesel]

On 3/24/2018 at 9:35 PM, AHF said:

We were much worse with Dwight than with Al.  Dwight helped us achieve a the worst point differential the Hawks have had since 2007-08.  He absolutely helped the team be better than they would have been without him but he didn't help them be good.  Pure mediocrity after being above average the prior year.

He solved the rebounding problem but created problems with ball movement and pick and roll D that left us worse in the net.

Um... no 

He solved the rebounding problem and helped the total defense.  He just didn't help HIDE the problems with Dennis.  Dennis hid when we had Al because we had a passing C who could also defend well enough to hide Dennis' defects.   Don't blame that on Dwight.  Dwight is gone and we still have problems with ball movement and pick and roll D.  That tells you that he wasn't the cause. 

 

[Diesel]

On 3/25/2018 at 0:03 AM, DBac said:

Here

EFG with Dwight vs without Dwight

EFG with Millsap vs without Millsap

EFG with Schröder vs without Schröder

 

 

 

When the games count, does Dennis make anybody better?

Dennis Playoffs.

[Diesel]

19 hours ago, DBac said:

@TheNorthCydeRises

 

Truth. Signing Dwight was a huge misstep in terms of what made this team great. Bud needs bigs that can space the floor, create for others, and move (both on offense and defense). Dwight is none of those things. Like I said before, Dwight would rather post up than run the PnR where he would be great.

Look at Dwight's PnR frequency in Houston, ATL, Charlotte (9.3, 10.1, 12.0) compared to Clint Capela's (18.5, 28, 32.8) or John Collins/Dewayne Dedmon this year (23.3, 26.6). Not to mention Steve Nash publicly outing him for refusing to run the PnR. That's a Dwight problem, not a Bud problem. Posting up is not a strength of his.

 

No.  We got killed on the boards.  When Al Horford was gettnig us 1 and 2 rebounds per game, we were getting killed, especially in the playoffs.  The PNR problem wasn't Dwight, it was Dennis.   Dennis just refused to get him the ball.  Whether he was set for the PNR or in the post. 

 

[Diesel]

20 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

J

And maybe, just maybe, the TRUE ISSUE is that the team's offense doesn't play toward what is its actual strength.  This has been the beef of myself, Diesel, Peoriabird, Volman, and a few others on this site, for over year now.  And while I don't agree "all the way" with it, this is also why Diesel criticizes Dennis.  As the PG, it's his job to get the ball to the right people in the right spots.

To me, this is a clear indication that Bud is trying to run an offense that he really doesn't have the personnel to play.  Yes, when you have Kyle Korver and Demarre Carroll on the wings bombing away at a 40% clip, you can play the style that he wants to run.  But when your team overall can't shoot the basketball, or has problems creating their own shots, it makes no sense to be running a "pace and space" offense. 

That's why when Dwight was scoring the basketball last year, we were a +.500 basketball team.  And when he didn't score, we were below .500.

Next season, if the team finally decides to increase Collins' usage in this offense, you'll see the team win more as well.