Hawks vs the Eastern Conference contenders (on paper anyway).

[thecampster]

Feel free to criticize my matchups if you like. This is how I see it, convince me I'm wrong.

 

Brooklyn vs Atlanta

Irving vs Young - Tie

LeVert vs BB - BB (Adv Hawks)

Harris vs Hunter - Adv Hawks (slim)

Durant vs Collins - Adv Brooklyn (If Durant is healthy)

Allen vs Capela - Adv Hawks (slim)

Bench - Prince/Jordan/Dinwiddie/Johnson vs Rondo/Huerter/Reddish/Gallo - advantage Hawks

 

I took at a look at these rosters. I see some fit/health questions on Brooklyn. Game > on paper but on paper I don't see them being better than us. I see us as having a better bench and equal to better starters. If Irving and Durant are at their best, they get the advantage but I don't see that happening. Adv Hawks (can't believe I'm saying this).

 

Philadelphia vs Atlanta

Simmons vs Trae - (I have no flipping clue...tie?) The size advantage is hard to compensate.

Curry vs BB - Adv Hawks

Green vs Hunter - Adv Hawks (slim?)

Harris vs Collins - Adv Hawks

Embiid vs Capela - Adv 76ers

Bench Howard, Thybulle, Scott, Milton vs Rondo/Huerter/Reddish/Gallo - advantage Hawks

 

Again, on paper, I think we're better. That's hard to swallow but I think we're better. Maybe not day one as we have to learn to play together but ya...I see it this way.

 

Milwaukee vs Atlanta 

 Holiday vs Young - Adv Hawks (slim)

DiVincenzo vs BB - Adv Hawks

Middleton vs Hunter - Adv Milwaukee (slim)

Giannis vs Collins - Adv Milwaukee

Lopez vs Capela - tie (they bring different things)

Bench  Augustin, Portis, Craig, Forbes vs Rondo/Huerter/Reddish/Gallo - advantage Hawks...by a lot.

 

Closest matchup but our bench should make us better on paper once we gel. 

 

Miami vs Atlanta 

Dragic vs Young - Adv Hawks

Robinson vs BB - Adv Hawks (slim)

Butler vs Hunter - Adv Miami

Harkless vs Collins - Adv Hawks

Adebayo vs Capela - Adv Miami (slim)

Bench Herro, Bradley, Olynyk, Iguodala vs Rondo, Huerter, Reddish, Gallo - advantage Hawks (slim)

 

I'm really having a hard time saying this and it may be the homer in me but I don't see any East team as "better" than us on paper. I just don't see it. They end up better than us on the court but I'm not seeing it on paper.

[macdaddy]

I like it!

With Brooklyn i think a healthy Durant is just a huge advantage though.   For us to be in the running there Trae has to way outplay Irving and we have to lock down everyone else.   

I think you might be underestimating Miami's bench and Milwaukee's shooting combined with Giannis is hard to stop.

But I agree with the point that we have talent to match up with these teams.  I always look at who are the best 2 to 3 players on the floor.   If the best 2 are on one team then you've got a big challenge.  If the best 3 are on one team then you're screwed.  

Oh I ain't scared of Philly despite the slight upgrade in coaching.   

[NBASupes]

I like Capela a lot more than you do it seems. Like JC a lot less. Harris and JC is a lot closer and Capela is much better than both Lopez and Allen. KD is one of the best players in the NBA. If he has a minor injury and playing through it, it's still a lot better than JC

[macdaddy]

1 minute ago, NBASupes said:

I like Capela a lot more than you do it seems. Like JC a lot less. Harris and JC is a lot closer and Capela is much better than both Lopez and Allen. KD is one of the best players in the NBA. If he has a minor injury and playing through it, it's still a lot better than JC

I agree with you but the whole point of Lopez is he'll pull Capela away from the paint.   Lopez' shooting shouldn't be downplayed too much especially when you have to keep Giannis away from the rim and Capela is guarding the 3 point line.

[AHF]

I can't disagree with too many of the individual assessments but think that the young age and inexperience of our players means that the sum of the parts is more than the collective team.  The other note I'd say is that Durant, Embiid, Butler, and Giannis are projected to have a significantly bigger impact than any individual Hawk and it would be a mistake not to recognize that the biggest stars tend to determine the success of their teams moreso than the collective talent.

For example the Bulls' third championship squad in 1992-93 and compare them to the Cavs:

BJ Armstrong v Mark Price (big advantage CLE)

Michael Jordan v Craig Ehlo (big advantage CHI)

Scottie Pippen v Mike Sanders (big advantage CHI)

Horace Grant v Larry Nance (advantage CLE)

Bill Cartwright (35 year old) v Brad Daughtery (big advantage CLE)

Bench:  Scott Williams, Stacey King, John Paxson, Rodney McCray v Terrell Brandon, Hot Rod Williams, Gerald Wilkins, Danny Ferry (adv CLE) 

On paper Cleveland looks like arguably the better team but when you look at the total package on the floor it isn't particularly close.  Bulls swept the Cavs 4-0.

In short, until our guys mature some more and we come together as a team I think the sum of our parts will look better on paper than our actual results.

[thecampster]

12 minutes ago, AHF said:

I can't disagree with too many of the individual assessments but think that the young age and inexperience of our players means that the sum of the parts is more than the collective team.  The other note I'd say is that Durant, Embiid, Butler, and Giannis are projected to have a significantly bigger impact than any individual Hawk and it would be a mistake not to recognize that the biggest stars tend to determine the success of their teams moreso than the collective talent.

For example the Bulls' third championship squad in 1992-93 and compare them to the Cavs:

BJ Armstrong v Mark Price (big advantage CLE)

Michael Jordan v Craig Ehlo (big advantage CHI)

Scottie Pippen v Mike Sanders (big advantage CHI)

Horace Grant v Larry Nance (advantage CLE)

Bill Cartwright (35 year old) v Brad Daughtery (big advantage CLE)

Bench:  Scott Williams, Stacey King, John Paxson, Rodney McCray v Terrell Brandon, Hot Rod Williams, Gerald Wilkins, Danny Ferry (adv CLE) 

On paper Cleveland looks like arguably the better team but when you look at the total package on the floor it isn't particularly close.  Bulls swept the Cavs 4-0.

In short, until our guys mature some more and we come together as a team I think the sum of our parts will look better on paper than our actual results.

The only thing really holding us back right now.

[thecampster]

40 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I like Capela a lot more than you do it seems. Like JC a lot less. Harris and JC is a lot closer and Capela is much better than both Lopez and Allen. KD is one of the best players in the NBA. If he has a minor injury and playing through it, it's still a lot better than JC

I really like Capela but I'm honest about him as a complete player. No outside shooting and bad at the free throw line. Those 2 things really hurt him from being better than certain other centers.

 

Lopez only rebounds because he's taller than everyone else. If I'm grading effort, Capela but Lopez falls into rebounds based on size. Its a natural gift, not effort. Lopez can shoot. He has a natural game that spreads the floor. Lopez can pass. He is not a better defensive center than Capela and he is not a better roller, leaper than Capela...he is not explosive. But he is a better all around basketball player all things considered and that is how Lopez catches up (again, imho).

 

JC - JC despite touching the ball over 40 times a game has a 1.8 turnover/game rate. He does a lot of little things that really settle things down, make the Hawks better. The stats last year bear that out. JC is a top 5 PF in the East. There are no real holes in his game and he doesn't try to do things he shouldn't (like dribble penetrate). I don't think he's the greatest of all time but he does a lot of things better than most. He should be appreciated for what he is. He is a ++ player.

[thecampster]

A good look at Collins is easy to see in his matchup PER numbers.

At the PF last year, he scored a 29.4 PER/48minutes. His opponent at the 4 posted a 19.7. That's a 9.7 PER difference which is very hard to do in a large sample.  In the previous season, 9.5 PER/48 differential. Collins wins his matchups nightly. He just isn't flashy and works within the coach's system.

[JayBirdHawk]

Match up vs Match makes sense, but the high end talent like Durant, Giannis and Embiid throw a wrench in the one for one matchups.

[macdaddy]

28 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Match up vs Match makes sense, but the high end talent like Durant, Giannis and Embiid throw a wrench in the one for one matchups.

[REHawksFan]

2 hours ago, thecampster said:

Feel free to criticize my matchups if you like. This is how I see it, convince me I'm wrong.

 

Brooklyn vs Atlanta

Irving vs Young - Tie

LeVert vs BB - BB (Adv Hawks)

Harris vs Hunter - Adv Hawks (slim)

Durant vs Collins - Adv Brooklyn (If Durant is healthy)

Allen vs Capela - Adv Hawks (slim)

Bench - Prince/Jordan/Dinwiddie/Johnson vs Rondo/Huerter/Reddish/Gallo - advantage Hawks

 

I took at a look at these rosters. I see some fit/health questions on Brooklyn. Game > on paper but on paper I don't see them being better than us. I see us as having a better bench and equal to better starters. If Irving and Durant are at their best, they get the advantage but I don't see that happening. Adv Hawks (can't believe I'm saying this).

 

Philadelphia vs Atlanta

Simmons vs Trae - (I have no flipping clue...tie?) The size advantage is hard to compensate.

Curry vs BB - Adv Hawks

Green vs Hunter - Adv Hawks (slim?)

Harris vs Collins - Adv Hawks

Embiid vs Capela - Adv 76ers

Bench Howard, Thybulle, Scott, Milton vs Rondo/Huerter/Reddish/Gallo - advantage Hawks

 

Again, on paper, I think we're better. That's hard to swallow but I think we're better. Maybe not day one as we have to learn to play together but ya...I see it this way.

 

Milwaukee vs Atlanta 

 Holiday vs Young - Adv Hawks (slim)

DiVincenzo vs BB - Adv Hawks

Middleton vs Hunter - Adv Milwaukee (slim)

Giannis vs Collins - Adv Milwaukee

Lopez vs Capela - tie (they bring different things)

Bench  Augustin, Portis, Craig, Forbes vs Rondo/Huerter/Reddish/Gallo - advantage Hawks...by a lot.

 

Closest matchup but our bench should make us better on paper once we gel. 

 

Miami vs Atlanta 

Dragic vs Young - Adv Hawks

Robinson vs BB - Adv Hawks (slim)

Butler vs Hunter - Adv Miami

Harkless vs Collins - Adv Hawks

Adebayo vs Capela - Adv Miami (slim)

Bench Herro, Bradley, Olynyk, Iguodala vs Rondo, Huerter, Reddish, Gallo - advantage Hawks (slim)

 

I'm really having a hard time saying this and it may be the homer in me but I don't see any East team as "better" than us on paper. I just don't see it. They end up better than us on the court but I'm not seeing it on paper.

I started to do this very analysis the other day and stopped because it seemed to be too time consuming a task.  So thank you for doing it.  I really liked reading through it.  

My biggest critique as I read through was exactly what @AHF said, the sum of the parts doesn't necessarily outweigh a single ELITE talent.  So that's why it's hard for me to say ATL would be better than MIL (due to Giannis) or BKN (due to a healthy Durant) or even MIA (due to Butler and their system).  I do wish you would have done Boston because I think they lack (in my opinion) any player that is so elite that they outweigh the collective.  

I'll say this, IF IF IF the Hawks come together and gel like we all think they can, they could end up with something that is collectively good enough to win a given series against any of those teams.  I just don't think we can say that now because we haven't actually seen our guys come together in that way yet.  

[Atlantaholic]

For us to legit contend this year, Trae will have to play at an MVPish level. I think he has the potential but it's probably a bit of a long shot to assume he will reach that level this upcoming season with so many new pieces and the strange offseason and upcoming schedule. 

 If we can get a 26 - 10 with great efficiency and reasonable turnover numbers plus improved defense plus have good luck with the injuries than we have top 4 seed potential right up there with Boston /Philly / Miami /Toronto.  I think we know what we'll get from the vets we brought in, they have been very consistent throughout their careers. As far as the young wings, I also think it's almost a guarantee we'll see a significant jump in efficiency, at least from Cam and Hunter, who were so bad for so much of last season that it's obivous they'll at worst be a lot better this year overall. It will be curious to see Trae play this year in a role that will probably have him playing off the ball more than in previous years. Can he be as effective with a reduced usage%? It will be a big shift from the type of ball he has been used to playing since college. If he can adapt and thrive than we have the potential to really surprise a ton of folks this year. I expect ups and downs this year, and probably a lower seed playoff finish. I think we will give one of those top seeds a run for their money and possibly make it as far as the second round. I think the really exciting things for this team will happen the year after next when the team is already aclimated with all the new pieces from the get go and Trae has mastered his new role. 

[thecampster]

10 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I started to do this very analysis the other day and stopped because it seemed to be too time consuming a task.  So thank you for doing it.  I really liked reading through it.  

My biggest critique as I read through was exactly what @AHF said, the sum of the parts doesn't necessarily outweigh a single ELITE talent.  So that's why it's hard for me to say ATL would be better than MIL (due to Giannis) or BKN (due to a healthy Durant) or even MIA (due to Butler and their system).  I do wish you would have done Boston because I think they lack (in my opinion) any player that is so elite that they outweigh the collective.  

I'll say this, IF IF IF the Hawks come together and gel like we all think they can, they could end up with something that is collectively good enough to win a given series against any of those teams.  I just don't think we can say that now because we haven't actually seen our guys come together in that way yet.  

ugh...I hate Boston

[Atlantaholic]

1 minute ago, thecampster said:

ugh...I hate Boston

The thing that annoys me about  (curernt) Boston the most is how insanely overrated Jason Tatum has been his entire career. 

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, thecampster said:

I really like Capela but I'm honest about him as a complete player. No outside shooting and bad at the free throw line. Those 2 things really hurt him from being better than certain other centers.

 

Lopez only rebounds because he's taller than everyone else. If I'm grading effort, Capela but Lopez falls into rebounds based on size. Its a natural gift, not effort. Lopez can shoot. He has a natural game that spreads the floor. Lopez can pass. He is not a better defensive center than Capela and he is not a better roller, leaper than Capela...he is not explosive. But he is a better all around basketball player all things considered and that is how Lopez catches up (again, imho).

 

JC - JC despite touching the ball over 40 times a game has a 1.8 turnover/game rate. He does a lot of little things that really settle things down, make the Hawks better. The stats last year bear that out. JC is a top 5 PF in the East. There are no real holes in his game and he doesn't try to do things he shouldn't (like dribble penetrate). I don't think he's the greatest of all time but he does a lot of things better than most. He should be appreciated for what he is. He is a ++ player.

Capela is much better than you think he is. He can defend bigs in space. Hell, he's can stay in front of wings and guards in space for a period of time. Hawk fans don't know Clint's game yet to be honest on him yet. This isn't JC where you watched every game for years. Most of you guys really haven't watched much of Clint.

JC average time of possession is the lowest on the team by a mile and was right there with Alex Len and Damian Jones last year. The Basketball has been generally hot pockets to JC for most of his career. I've seen progress this preseason but let's hold our horses on giving him too much credit. 

He has a number of holes in his game. Lol. Yeah, you are understating Clint and overrating JC.

Edited December 16, 2020 by NBASupes

[NBASupes]

29 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

I started to do this very analysis the other day and stopped because it seemed to be too time consuming a task.  So thank you for doing it.  I really liked reading through it.  

My biggest critique as I read through was exactly what @AHF said, the sum of the parts doesn't necessarily outweigh a single ELITE talent.  So that's why it's hard for me to say ATL would be better than MIL (due to Giannis) or BKN (due to a healthy Durant) or even MIA (due to Butler and their system).  I do wish you would have done Boston because I think they lack (in my opinion) any player that is so elite that they outweigh the collective.  

I'll say this, IF IF IF the Hawks come together and gel like we all think they can, they could end up with something that is collectively good enough to win a given series against any of those teams.  I just don't think we can say that now because we haven't actually seen our guys come together in that way yet.  

This. Ultimately, we need to see how much progress JC, Trae, Hunter, Cam, Kevin and the fit of Bogi, Clint, and Gallo is. 

[Atlantaholic]

4 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Capela is much better than you think he is. He can defend bigs in space. Hell, he's can stay in front of wings and guards in space for a period of time. Hawk fans don't know Clint's game yet to be honest on him yet. This isn't JC where you watched every game for years. Most of you guys really haven't watched much of Clint.

JC average time of possession is the lowest on the team by a mile and was right there with Alex Len and Damian Jones last year. The Basketball has been generally hot pockets to JC for most of his career. I've seen progress this preseason but let's hold our horses on giving him too much credit. 

He has a number of holes in his game. Lol. Yeah, you are understating Clint and overrating JC.

Ya, Clint's strength is his defense. He is an excellent defender. I think offensively he is kind of whatever, but defense is where he brings value. 

[NBASupes]

2 hours ago, thecampster said:

A good look at Collins is easy to see in his matchup PER numbers.

At the PF last year, he scored a 29.4 PER/48minutes. His opponent at the 4 posted a 19.7. That's a 9.7 PER difference which is very hard to do in a large sample.  In the previous season, 9.5 PER/48 differential. Collins wins his matchups nightly. He just isn't flashy and works within the coach's system.

PER? Who still uses PER? PER is implicitly bias to players to play like JC, Whiteside, and Enes Kanter.

JC is a million times better than Klay Thompson by the PER

[NBASupes]

1 minute ago, Atlantaholic said:

Ya, Clint's strength is his defense. He is an excellent defender. I think offensively he is kind of whatever, but defense is where he brings value. 

His offensive value is primarily based on rebounding, rim running, lob threat, smart play with movement, and excellent speed, screener and with very good size for position. He has offensive value. He's just an excellent defender though not elite. 

[Gray Mule]

Hawks are as good as most any team in the NBA.  On any given night, when our shots are falling, we can beat any team in the NBA.  

When this Hawk team are all throwing up bricks, any NBA team can beat them.  It is no secret - Atlanta must score a lot to win their games - and, they will.

Our defense has been porous.  This they have tightened somewhat already with the addition of Capela.  He knows how to rebound!  When Atlanta has, as a usual thing, been on the short end of the rebounding game, it was not hard to see where we were falling short.

My pet peeve, as you know, is missed foul shots.  Players, professional, making $$$ millions to play this game and can't make their free throws - - Ugh!

Trae, the #1 villain on our team's defense knows it.  (In fact, he's rated as the worst in the NBA)  Trae has his pride and he will be working on this part of his game this season.  He will improve.  Count on it.

Too many good shooters for everyone to be cold on the same night.  With the new emphasis being placed on defense and some defensive bench players added, Atlanta may shine a little bit!