The Narrative: Trae should shoot less. Is that true?

[MarylandHawk]

6 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

So let's review the facts about Trae and the Hawks.   He's missed 2 games this year.

• He's currently averaging 18.2 FGA and 6.5 3FGA
• He's only taken 25 or more shots in 2 games this season
• The Hawks are 5 - 9 when Trae takes 18 shots or less
• The Hawks are 9 - 8 when he takes more than 18 shots
  • Of that 9 - 8 record . . the Hawks are 4 - 2 when he's taken at least 23 shots
• And once again, when Trae scores 33 points or more, the Hawks are 9 - 0
• When he scores 25 points or less, we are 2 - 11

 

So the narrative of Trae needing to score less or take less shots, for the team to be more successful, has to make sense.  Just because it sounds great in theory, doesn't mean that it'll lead to more winning.  The data proves that the opposite is true.  You still have to have guys who are capable of scoring the basketball on a consistent basis, in order for this to happen.

The one thing about Trae's data set that you can say is this.  40% FG shooting in a game, is the REAL barometer number that determines if the Hawks win or lose games.

• 12 - 6 if Trae shoots 40%+ FG
• 2 - 11 if Trae shoots less than 40% FG

Also, if this dude is on from 3 point range, we're not losing.   11 - 2 if Trae shoots 40%+ from 3.  

So is the TRUE NARRATIVE that we should all be discussing, is how can we get Trae better and easier looks at the basket, so that he can be more efficient shooting the basketball? 

He's our most lethal scorer.  We should NOT be reducing the shots from our most lethal scorer, unless other's increasing their production, leads to winning.

Nice work. I think his teammates need to make open shots when they get the ball. Too many of his teammates are watching him play and are surprised when he pulls a deep one or he finds them wide open when he is not even looking at them. They just need to continuously look to get open and be ready to knock it down.   My other issue is, when he pulls up for long 3 pointers his teammates just stand there and watch, nobody is crashing the boards. Dre was starting to do that before he got hurt and his rebound numbers went up. Everyone except Capella is out there watching Trae. 
Trae is playing the exact right way including defensive effort. 

[MarylandHawk]

2 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

But if you don't even try an alternative while remain stubbornly forcing Trae to dictate play, you really don't know what other possibilities are and whether they would be  better alternatives under certain scenarios.  Other coaching staffs would have figured this out by now.

Spot on. When Dallas decided to trap Trae in the back court, it took a whole half for them to adjust. After the second time they did it, they should have let someone else bring the ball up to start the offense and set a half court pick to get Trae the ball in his hands going downhill. What makes it especially frustrating is that I believe they played the Spurs before that who use the same trap effectively against the Hawks and they did not learn from it. 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

16 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Mutually exclusive. He can attack and dish.

 

Hawks are only 4 - 11 when Trae has 10 or more assists.   

Out of that 4 - 11, they're only 1 - 5 when Trae gets 14 or more assists.  And he's had five 25+ point scoring games in the 6 games in which he had 14+ assists.

Meanwhile, the Hawks are 7 - 3 when Trae has 7 or less assists.  The difference?  He had five 33+ point scoring games.

 

All of the data points toward the Hawks winning ONLY when Trae plays great.  Until we become a much better defensive team, this is probably the best formula for winning.   

 

 

 

[MarylandHawk]

8 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

Hawks are only 4 - 11 when Trae has 10 or more assists.   

Out of that 4 - 11, they're only 1 - 5 when Trae gets 14 or more assists.  And he's had five 25+ point scoring games in the 6 games in which he had 14+ assists.

Meanwhile, the Hawks are 7 - 3 when Trae has 7 or less assists.  The difference?  He had five 33+ point scoring games.

 

All of the data points toward the Hawks winning ONLY when Trae plays great.  Until we become a much better defensive team, this is probably the best formula for winning.   

 

 

 

This has a lot of truth to it and it appears that way when you watch the games. I think another reason he has to shoulder so much offensive weight is because the team has not designated a second option. John Collins is the clear choice for this but they don’t commit to him and run plays for him down the stretch. He, Clint and Dre just get their shots through running the offense and they never really know when they are going to get the ball. There have been a couple of games where John was unstoppable all game long and then the 4 quarter came and he barley touched the ball. Not Trae’s fault though. 

[Peoriabird]

42 minutes ago, MarylandHawk said:

 There have been a couple of games where John was unstoppable all game long and then the 4 quarter came and he barley touched the ball.

Like the last game?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Stephen Curry:   13 - 6 when he scores 28 pts or more

Damian Lillard:  7 - 0 when he scores 36 pts or more . . . . 14 - 5 when he scores 30 pts or more

 

Sometimes it is what it is.  Superstar scorers win games.

[REHawksFan]

1 hour ago, MarylandHawk said:

This has a lot of truth to it and it appears that way when you watch the games. I think another reason he has to shoulder so much offensive weight is because the team has not designated a second option. John Collins is the clear choice for this but they don’t commit to him and run plays for him down the stretch. He, Clint and Dre just get their shots through running the offense and they never really know when they are going to get the ball. There have been a couple of games where John was unstoppable all game long and then the 4 quarter came and he barley touched the ball. Not Trae’s fault though. 

This is where they desperately need Dre back.  He's shown flashes of being a guy who could score and be dynamic WITHOUT needing Trae to spoon feed him.  Clint and JC aren't like that.  They both NEED Trae to feed them to be most effective.  

[REHawksFan]

34 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Stephen Curry:   13 - 6 when he scores 28 pts or more

Damian Lillard:  7 - 0 when he scores 36 pts or more . . . . 14 - 5 when he scores 30 pts or more

 

Sometimes it is what it is.  Superstar scorers win games.

The data is overwhelming telling the same story, over and over again.  And it won't likely change until they have Hunter back OR they start playing consistent defense that can still win when scoring is off (aka when Huinter returns).  

The really intriguing thing is exactly what was posted early on in this thread.......how can LP and the staff MAKE IT EASIER FOR TRAE TO OPERATE?????  That needs to be the focus because Dre isn't walking through that door any time soon.  They'll be in a huge hole by the time he comes back if they don't figure out a way to help Trae be more successful.  

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

All of the data points toward the Hawks winning ONLY when Trae plays great.

He can play “great” and not have to score 50. He needs to hit timely buckets but the rest of the time get others involved. 
 

Im not a big stats guy, there are surrounding stats as to why we went 4-11 when he dimed out. I’m not buying these stats. 
 

Trae needs to facilitate but take over when needed at key times he doesn’t necessarily need to put up 50. He can every once in a while but doing this consistently will make us a one dimension team, can’t have that specially when Dre and Bogi return it will KILL team chemistry and send us spiraling fast.

[MarylandHawk]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

Like the last game?

Yep. 

[MarylandHawk]

45 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

This is where they desperately need Dre back.  He's shown flashes of being a guy who could score and be dynamic WITHOUT needing Trae to spoon feed him.  Clint and JC aren't like that.  They both NEED Trae to feed them to be most effective.  

I believe John can create his own shot if he has a couple of set plays to get him a mismatch. If this was explored more, they wouldn't be entirely dependent on Trae creating a shot for John.  

[REHawksFan]

33 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

He can play “great” and not have to score 50. He needs to hit timely buckets but the rest of the time get others involved. 
 

Im not a big stats guy, there are surrounding stats as to why we went 4-11 when he dimed out. I’m not buying these stats. 
 

Trae needs to facilitate but take over when needed at key times he doesn’t necessarily need to put up 50. He can every once in a while but doing this consistently will make us a one dimension team, can’t have that specially when Dre and Bogi return it will KILL team chemistry and send us spiraling fast.

The problem with this is that we've seen games where Trae facilitates and gets JC and Clint going - games where they score 20+ pts.  We've seen games where Kevin goes off or even Cam.  And they STILL lose unless Trae scores big.  This isn't a matter of not believing stats or not preferring one style to another.  It's simply a fact that the Hawks don't consistently win unless Trae score prolifically.  Doesn't necessarily mean 50, but it means a lot more than 20 and 10 assists.  

Until we get to a point where the supporting cast is good enough to win without Trae's points, the story will remain.  Hawks need Trae to score a lot to win.  If others pop and have a great night, fine.  But - right now - Trae scoring is the biggest variable in determining win / loss for the Hawks. 

[REHawksFan]

4 minutes ago, MarylandHawk said:

I believe John can create his own shot if he has a couple of set plays to get him a mismatch. If this was explored more, they wouldn't be entirely dependent on Trae creating a shot for John.  

Possibly, but that would require a coaching staff that actually ran a variety of offensive sets.  In the current offense, JC and Clint are completely dependent on Trae feeding them.  In all honesty though, I need to see JC create for himself before I believe it.  Not sure he has the handles for that, but I'd like to see the attempt.    

[Spud2nique]

1 minute ago, REHawksFan said:

This isn't a matter of not believing stats or not preferring one style to another. 

How so? This is strictly buying into a star that favors whatever perspective feeds your narrative.

Agree to disagree. Trae needs to get people involved and have them ready. Then in the 4th, look for his in a big way. He can have 10 points going into the fourth then score 15 in the 4th and get 25 points while already stacking 15 dimes the first 3 quarters.

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

How so? This is strictly buying into a star that favors whatever perspective feeds your narrative.

Agree to disagree. Trae needs to get people involved and have them ready. Then in the 4th, look for his in a big way. He can have 10 points going into the fourth then score 15 in the 4th and get 25 points while already stacking 15 dimes the first 3 quarters.

Without the turnovers

[REHawksFan]

6 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

How so? This is strictly buying into a star that favors whatever perspective feeds your narrative.

Agree to disagree. Trae needs to get people involved and have them ready. Then in the 4th, look for his in a big way. He can have 10 points going into the fourth then score 15 in the 4th and get 25 points while already stacking 15 dimes the first 3 quarters.

Because that scenario isn't really Trae.  Or it hasn't been.  Rarely does he go into the 4th not having scored much or looked for his own shot much and then just explode.  That's LBJ type stuff.  Trae seems to be a dude that needs to get going early and get his throughout the game.  And I'm not suggesting he ignore his teammates at all.  I'm just saying that it's imperative for him to get going early.  His teammates aren't good enough to carry the team.  And I'm not sure Trae is good enough to just turn it on and off at will.  Especially in the 4th.    

[Spud2nique]

4 minutes ago, REHawksFan said:

And I'm not sure Trae is good enough to just turn it on and off at will.  Especially in the 4th.    

No I think he can. He’s good enough to do this plus he has more energy. If he comes out looking for his own shot the teammates will get uninterested and fail in the 4th and Trae will have worn himself out scoring by then anyways.

 

Timely efficient scoring to bail out your team when most needed is what he needs to do. 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Why are people against Trae being a scoring superstar? 

The league doesn't talk about Dame's facilitating, even though he's a top 10 facilitator in the league.   They don't talk about Steph Curry's passing.   Even with the "dude in Dallas", it's more about his scoring and shot making than his great passing.

But with Trae, people want him to get others involved more, despite being one of the top 3 facilitators in the league?

I don't get it.

 

People have asked for a superstar type player all throughout the Joe Johnson era.  Dogged Joe when he wasn't offensively aggressive, deferred to his teammates, and got outplayed by the other team's superstar.  Even with the 60 win Hawks that made the EC Finals, the one thing everyone held against that team is that they didn't have "that guy".  That scorer who could carry a team on his back.

And now we finally get a guy who can match the superstars point for point, and now it's . . "he shoots too much" . . "we can't win with him playing like that"?

It's weird.

 

 

[Spud2nique]

3 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Why are people against Trae being a scoring superstar? 

Because his greatest gift is passing. Trae believes that and so do I. It’s a waste for him not to be able to show it and just score. 

[Peoriabird]

2 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Why are people against Trae being a scoring superstar? 

 

 

1st of all he isn't good enough to win that way...Heck he isn't as good as Harden or Beal and they couldn't win doing it. Secondly, his team is good enough to contribute but the staff stinks.