The Narrative: Trae should shoot less. Is that true?

[TheNorthCydeRises]

So let's review the facts about Trae and the Hawks.   He's missed 2 games this year.

• He's currently averaging 18.2 FGA and 6.5 3FGA
• He's only taken 25 or more shots in 2 games this season
• The Hawks are 5 - 9 when Trae takes 18 shots or less
• The Hawks are 9 - 8 when he takes more than 18 shots
  • Of that 9 - 8 record . . the Hawks are 4 - 2 when he's taken at least 23 shots
• And once again, when Trae scores 33 points or more, the Hawks are 9 - 0
• When he scores 25 points or less, we are 2 - 11

 

So the narrative of Trae needing to score less or take less shots, for the team to be more successful, has to make sense.  Just because it sounds great in theory, doesn't mean that it'll lead to more winning.  The data proves that the opposite is true.  You still have to have guys who are capable of scoring the basketball on a consistent basis, in order for this to happen.

The one thing about Trae's data set that you can say is this.  40% FG shooting in a game, is the REAL barometer number that determines if the Hawks win or lose games.

• 12 - 6 if Trae shoots 40%+ FG
• 2 - 11 if Trae shoots less than 40% FG

Also, if this dude is on from 3 point range, we're not losing.   11 - 2 if Trae shoots 40%+ from 3.  

So is the TRUE NARRATIVE that we should all be discussing, is how can we get Trae better and easier looks at the basket, so that he can be more efficient shooting the basketball? 

He's our most lethal scorer.  We should NOT be reducing the shots from our most lethal scorer, unless other's increasing their production, leads to winning.

[Peoriabird]

I've been quite clear on my areas of improvement for Trae

1. Better shot quality i.e. more catch and shoot opportunities and fewer pull ups

2. Continue to attack the rim when given the opportunity instead of settling

3. Reduce the turnovers particularly the live ball ones.

My wish list is pretty simple.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I think we have all noticed that while Trae has missed a lot more floaters this year, than he did last year.  So despite his increase in 3 point shooting, his overall FG% hasn't gone up significantly because of all of the missed floaters.

Shot distance

3 to <10 ft

• 2020 - 45.2% FG
• 2021 - 42.5% FG

10 to <16 ft  

• 2020 - 46.7% FG
• 2021 - 33.8% FG

 

So once again, it's not necessarily "hero ball" shots that are killing Trae. It's his shooting effectiveness in the paint that's making him less efficient.

When you really watch video on him, it's ridiculous how hard he has to work to get his own shot.  So many piss poor screens are set for him out on the perimeter.  He gets almost no spot up looks for his shot, because unlike how Golden State tries to get Curry the ball, everyone else is looking for their own shot when they receive the pass, unless they absolutely have to give it up.

But the big thing you see on video are that teams are figuring out how to cover the Hawks pick and roll. Teams don't respect the Hawks shooters.  So the wing guys are constantly sagging toward the paint every time we run pick and roll.  So even when the big does set a proper screen, Trae doesn't necessarily have an open look. Trae then tries to toss a shot over the big. The big is playing a lot closer to Trae, trying to prevent him getting a good look at the floater, than trying to prevent the lob to the big.

 

If Trae can fix his floater, or if the Hawks can create more space for Trae in the paint, his efficiency will rise.

 

[NBASupes]

Trae shooting less for a reason. The teams we are playing want him to shoot less

[Peoriabird]

11 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Trae shooting less for a reason. The teams we are playing want him to shoot less

Teams have adapted LP has not.  This my friends is the problem.  If teams are forcing 1 player to take tougher shots, do not oblige find better shots.  3 things will happen when you oblige,

1. You become more inefficient

2. You work harder on offense

3. You have less energy available on defense.

This is exactly what your opponents wants to happen and the dumb Hawks unknowingly fall right into the trap.  But the Hawks coaching staff and its fans chalk up the poor defense to other trivial things like deciding not to put forth effort which is laughable.  They are tired folks and that is why the defensive effort wanes in the 4th quarter.  Think rope a dope!

[TheNorthCydeRises]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

I've been quite clear on my areas of improvement for Trae

1. Better shot quality i.e. more catch and shoot opportunities and less pull ups

2. Continue to attack the rim when given the opportunity instead of settling

3. Reduce the turnovers particularly the live ball ones.

My wish list is pretty simple.

 

1)  Only a change in offensive design will achieve this, while also playing with people willing to get the ball to Trae when he's open on the perimeter.  Or playing him with another facilitator that can get him the ball when he's off the ball.  I know you're against the 2 PG lineups, but this is part of the reason why LP tries it.   To get Trae off the ball, spot up touches from 3.

 

2)  542 shot attempts so far for Trae.  240 shots within 10 ft or less = 44.2% of shot attempts.   If you add the 80 more shots that have come in the 10 - 15 foot range, he's taking 59% of his shots from 15 feet and in.  This also doesn't account for the fouls that he draws while attacking, that don't count against FG attempts.  96 fouls drawn on the season.

 

3) 132 turnovers ( which leads the league, by the way ). 80 of those turnovers are bad passes.  2.2 assist/turnover ratio, which puts him in a group of PGs with De'Aaron Fox, LaMelo Ball, and the ( dude in Dallas ).  For a comparison:

• Chris Paul - 3.8
• Jrue Holiday - 3.4
• Fred VanVleet - 3.2
• Mike Conley - 2.9
• Ja Morant - 2.7
• James Harden - 2.6
• Lonzo Ball - 2.5
• Kyrie Irving - 2.5
• Dame Lillard - 2.4
• Ben Simmons - 2.4
• Kyle Lowry - 2.3
• Trae Young - 2.2
• De'Aaron Fox - 2.2
• Lamelo Ball - 2.2
• dude from Dallas - 2.2
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 2.1
• LeBron James - 2.1

[TheNorthCydeRises]

57 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

Trae shooting less for a reason. The teams we are playing want him to shoot less

 

Trae shooting less means that Trae is attacking less.

And if Trae is attacking less, that means less FT attempts, which is a huge part of his game, and the Hawks success as well.

If teams know that his scoring is a big key to our success as a team, they'll try to limit his shot attempts and his trips to the FT line.

 

Makes sense.

[Peoriabird]

1.  It doesn't take another guard to pass the ball to an open perimeter player

2. When the Hawks have a lead late in games, the team including Trae should continue to attack the rim  because they are the best free throw shooting team in the league.  For example against OKC, JC had 12 points in the 1st quarter then 13 over the next 3 quarters

3.  He must cut down on the turnovers regardless of the number of assist he averages to win games

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Despite the turnovers, Trae's passing is impressive

• 9.5 assists per game . . . 3rd in the league
• 1.3 secondary assists . .  2nd in the league
• 24.1 pts created . . . . . . . 3rd in the league

Potential assists:  18.1 per game.

 

[JayBirdHawk]

Hawks still need a capable ball handler (not necessarily a PG) and a system to deploy when teams trap, deny Trae the ball.  Same story this year as last year.

When teams play ball deny or trap, what's the play? Guys waiting for Trae to try and get free to give him the ball using up precious seconds, by the time he gets the ball it's a rushed shot. He has to work too hard sometimes. Unfortunately there is no one to make the game easier for him.

[Peoriabird]

30 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Hawks still need a capable ball handler (not necessarily a PG) and a system to deploy when teams trap, deny Trae the ball.  Same story this year as last year.

When teams play ball deny or trap, what's the play? Guys waiting for Trae to try and get free to give him the ball using up precious seconds, by the time he gets the ball it's a rushed shot. He has to work too hard sometimes. Unfortunately there is no one to make the game easier for him.

I don't know guys...Trae has the 4th best Assist to Turnover ratio.  Huerter and Mays ratios are much better.  Even players like De'andre Hunter was more than an adequate so called secondary play maker but the truth is the Hawks and their coaching staff are their own worst enemy.  Their refusal to decrease Trae user rate is the culprit.  There is no offensive design to attack the trap.

[JayBirdHawk]

7 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

I don't know guys...Trae ha the 4th best Assist to Turnover ratio.  Huerter and Mays ratios are much better.  Even players like De'andre Hunter was more than an adequate so called secondary play maker but the truth is the Hawks and their coaching staff are their own worst enemy.  Their refusal to decrease Trae user rate is the culprit.  There is no offensive design to attack the trap.

The usage by the other plauers just isn't high enough to make that direct comparison. 

There's a difference in being just adequate and actually being consistent and having the mentality to just take over. 

Hunter was becoming that guy.

[Peoriabird]

On 2/28/2021 at 1:48 PM, JayBirdHawk said:

The usage by the other plauers just isn't high enough to make that direct comparison. 

There's a difference in being just adequate and actually being consistent and having the mentality to just take over. 

Hunter was becoming that guy.

But if you don't even try an alternative while stubbornly forcing Trae to dictate play, you really don't know what the other possibilities are and whether they would be  better alternatives under certain scenarios.  Other coaching staffs would have figured this out by now.

[JayBirdHawk]

11 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

But if you don't even try an alternative while remain stubbornly forcing Trae to dictate play, you really don't know what other possibilities are and whether they would be  better alternatives under certain scenarios.  Other coaching staffs would have figured this out by now.

Like it or not, we have a team built around Trae Young. No one else has shown the ability to take over a game the way he has.

[Peoriabird]

14 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Like it or not, we have a team built around Trae Young. No one else has shown the ability to take over a game the way he has.

Well we know what the definition of insanity is.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

11 minutes ago, JayBirdHawk said:

Like it or not, we have a team built around Trae Young. No one else has shown the ability to take over a game the way he has.

 

And not only take over the game.  The team tends to collapse when he or Capela are off the floor.

They can't stop people, and they can't score the basketball.  Mays gets props for playin very well in the Boston game.

 

@Peoriabird - As for Assist/Turnover ratio, the guy that actually leads the Hawks in this category . . . is Brandon Goodwin.

So should he be getting more minutes at the point, because he's going to make less ball handling mistakes than Trae?

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/assist-to-turnover-ratio

[Peoriabird]

4 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

@Peoriabird - As for Assist/Turnover ratio, the guy that actually leads the Hawks in this category . . . is Brandon

Goodwin.

So should he be getting more minutes at the point, because he's going to make less ball handling mistakes than Trae?

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/player-stat/assist-to-turnover-ratio

Not here to argue who is the best ball handler on the team.  Only pointing out that others players aren't useless in this area.  My goal is to encourage alternative to the current approach

[REHawksFan]

45 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Not here to argue who is the best ball handler on the team.  Only pointing out that others players aren't useless in this area.  My goal is to encourage alternative to the current approach

The alternative should be the coaching staff getting off their collective butts and figure out a way to get Trae easier scoring opportunities.  As it is, teams have figured out that - despite the relatively improved roster - if they just make life hard for Trae, there's not really anyone else that's going to beat them.  And they also know that the Hawks coaching staff is incapable (seemingly) of adjusting.  

Opponents go into games saying, "get the ball out of Trae's hands and we'll win."  So the solution from the Hawks cannot be "hey, let's get the ball out of Trae's hands more and into other guy's hands."   The answer from the Hawks should be, "how can we scheme and run action that will get Trae easier options to score or pass?"  

 

[Jody23]

Other than pick and roll/pop, the Hawks don't have an offense.  And without a real offensive scheme, you won't generate easier scoring opportunities.  Trae really does have to everything.  And as great as he is, it's not a winning formula.

[Spud2nique]

3 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Trae shooting less means that Trae is attacking less.

 

Mutually exclusive. He can attack and dish.