CAM REDDISH TO NY FOR KEVIN KNOX AND FIRST!?!

[macdaddy]

5 minutes ago, AHF said:

Why don't you guys do this bet:

If Capela takes a non-desperation 3 in the first 9 games of the season, Buzzard wins.  

If Capela doesn't take a non-desperation 3 in the first 9 games of the season, KG wins.

A desperation 3 is one taken with less than 3 seconds left on the clock (shot clock or time running out for the quarter).

9 games is ~11% of the total season.  It would correlate to a pace for roughly 9 (non-desperation) 3pt attempts over the season.

What if he makes it?

[AHF]

1 minute ago, macdaddy said:

What if he makes it?

Maybe he becomes the next Alex Len?  (Going from taking almost no threes per season (5 per year) to shooting 36% in over 200 attempts)

Frankly, I am much more concerned to see Capela return healthy than worrying about his jumper.

[Buzzard]

5 hours ago, AHF said:

Maybe he becomes the next Alex Len?  (Going from taking almost no threes per season (5 per year) to shooting 36% in over 200 attempts)

Frankly, I am much more concerned to see Capela return healthy than worrying about his jumper.

What jumper?

LP probably reads this and now you have dreaming of Alex Len and one season of goodness. Hopefully he remembers the following season of badness and decides to throw that idea into file 13.

Harsh reality:

Len career .690 FT%

Capela career .526 FT%

That 36% may have been lightning in a bottle for Len but at least it looks like he had a punchers chance.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Buzzard

[Spud2nique]

5 hours ago, AHF said:

Why don't you guys do this bet:

If Capela takes a non-desperation 3 in the first 9 games of the season, Buzzard wins.  

If Capela doesn't take a non-desperation 3 in the first 9 games of the season, KG wins.

A desperation 3 is one taken with less than 3 seconds left on the clock (shot clock or time running out for the quarter).

9 games is ~11% of the total season.  It would correlate to a pace for roughly 9 (non-desperation) 3pt attempts over the season.

Can I get in on this? What’s the bet though I’m not taking on any more Luka avatars lol. 
 

I don’t think Clint takes a 3. He’s not that guy. He’s taken 2 threes in 6 seasons. 0/2.  For context, Steven Adams is 1-10 in threes in 7 seasons.

 

If Capela starts launching threes then we might have some issues. At least at this stage. 

[Buzzard]

1 minute ago, Spud2nique said:

Can I get in on this? What’s the bet though I’m not taking on any more Luka avatars lol. 
 

I don’t think Clint takes a 3. He’s not that guy. He’s taken 2 threes in 6 seasons. 0/2.  For context, Steven Adams is 1-10 in threes in 7 seasons.

 

If Capela starts launching threes then we might have some issues. At least at this stage. 

Damian Jones had not taken a 3 in 3 seasons. He then shows up here and takes 9 in his first season. Almost one every 6th game on average.

I proposed Capela takes 1 in his first 20 games. No one wants to bet against that. But they will take what Jones actually did; he took the first three of his career in his 3rd game with us.

[Spud2nique]

Just now, Buzzard said:

Damian Jones had not taken a 3 in 3 seasons. He then shows up here and takes 9 in his first season. Almost one every 6th game on average.

I proposed Capela takes 1 in his first 20 games. No one wants to bet against that. But they will take what Jones actually did; he took the first three of his career in his 3rd game with us.

True but in my defense, or in Jones’s defense, he couldn’t do much else so he figured why not try a bunch of things. Capela has a niche, that niche is dominating the inside on the O glass and getting ready for tip ins. I think he stays in the paint . 
 

By the way AHF said a desperation three should be in the last 3 seconds of the shot clock, I say increase it to 4 seconds.  

[Buzzard]

1 minute ago, Spud2nique said:

True but in my defense, or in Jones’s defense, he couldn’t do much else so he figured why not try a bunch of things.

That cracked me up

[AHF]

12 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

By the way AHF said a desperation three should be in the last 3 seconds of the shot clock, I say increase it to 4 seconds.  

Thinking about it, there is art is defining a desperation heave.  I might just loosely define it as a shot with time running out taken to beat the clock and identify another poster who would break the tie if the two posters don’t agree.  I’ve seen some shots around 4 seconds that are part of the natural rhythm and some idiots chucking heaves with more than 4 seconds remains only for everyone to stare at that person and scratch their head.  Kinda feel the two betters will almost surely agree on whether something is a desperation heave.

[Buzzard]

48 minutes ago, AHF said:

Thinking about it, there is art is defining a desperation heave.  I might just loosely define it as a shot with time running out taken to beat the clock and identify another poster who would break the tie if the two posters don’t agree.  I’ve seen some shots around 4 seconds that are part of the natural rhythm and some idiots chucking heaves with more than 4 seconds remains only for everyone to stare at that person and scratch their head.  Kinda feel the two betters will almost surely agree on whether something is a desperation heave.

I am not going with 9 games. 20 games was my offer and I will stand by that. Capela has taken 2 in 334 games with the 3pt happy Rockets. If you don't like your odds, then its because you know its likely he will take one with LPs blessing.

Which is really the gist and my primary point when it comes to LPs undisciplined offense.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Buzzard

[AHF]

13 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

I am not going with 9 games. 20 games was my offer and I will stand by that. Capela has taken 2 in 334 games with the 3pt happy Rockets. If you don't like your odds, then its because you know its likely he will take one with LPs blessing.

Which is really the gist and my primary point when it comes to LPs undisciplined offense.

I have no horse in the race.  20 games is unreasonable from my third person perspective and I don't think you'll find a single taker with that.  Was just trying to facilitate something both of you guys might bite on.

Hassan Whiteside has taken a 3 in the first 20 games in two of the last 3 seasons and has averaged a rate of a 3 every 11-12 games for the last 3 years.  When you reach the point where it is dramatically better odds than not that Whiteside playing under Spoelstra will meet the criteria, you've gone too far IMO.  (Whiteside averaged a 3 every 11.7 games his last two years under Spoelstra).

[Buzzard]

9 minutes ago, AHF said:

I have no horse in the race.  20 games is unreasonable from my third person perspective and I don't think you'll find a single taker with that.

Hassan Whiteside has taken a 3 in the first 20 games in two of the last 3 seasons and took 7 of them for a pace of one per ~12 games in the third season.  When you reach the point where it is dramatically better odds than not that Whiteside playing under Spoelstra will meet the criteria, you've gone too far IMO.  (Whiteside averaged a 3 every 11.7 games his last two years under Spoelstra).

But I also see a trend with Whiteside. He did not take any his first five seasons which includes 3 with Miami. There is no such trend for Capela. I wonder if Spo really approved of those threes which started trending in 2017/18 or they were part of the rift? Either way, Whiteside's 3P% is .320 on his 25 attempts. Capela's is .000 on his 2 attempts.

I will stand pat with 20. But thanks for the input.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Buzzard

[AHF]

5 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

But I also see a trend with Whiteside. He did not take any his first five seasons which includes 3 with Miami. There is no such trend for Capela. I wonder if Spo really approved of those threes or they were part of the rift? Either way, Whiteside's 3P% is .320 on his 25 attempts. Capale's is .000 on his 2 attempts.

I will stand pat with 20. But thanks for the input.

That is fine.  Lots of bet discussion results in each side making bet offers that no one will take.

For the record, I have zero interest in seeing Capela hanging around the 3pt line.  His broken FT shot makes me have zero confidence in his jump shot.

(And I can't imagine you care what Capela's 3pt% is.  If he made 1-2 would you be excited about him taking 3's because a 50% rate is legendary?  Of course not.  SSS makes it meaningless.)

[Buzzard]

1 minute ago, AHF said:

That is fine.  Lots of bet discussion results in each side making bet offers that no one will take.

I know its fine and we will see how many threes our poor shooters take again next season; or if LP learned anything.

[AHF]

1 minute ago, Buzzard said:

I know its fine and we will see how many threes our poor shooters take again next season; or if LP learned anything.

I'll be on the bus with you throwing rotten fruit at LP if Capela starts shooting 3's and doesn't blow our minds by doing a fantastic job of it.

[Buzzard]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

I'll be on the bus with you throwing rotten fruit at LP if Capela starts shooting 3's and doesn't blow our minds by doing a fantastic job of it.

My point is really not just Capela, he is a extreme example. I don't think everyone on our bench will shoot .333 or better from downtown. The league average is .357, so we will see how much tolerance LP has to allow poor shooters to make us a poor shooting team once again.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Buzzard

[AHF]

18 minutes ago, Buzzard said:

My point is really not just Capela, he is a extreme example. I don't think everyone on our bench will shoot .333 or better from downtown. The league average is .357, so we will see how much tolerance LP has to allow poor shooters to make us a poor shooting team once again.

First, I expect Huerter will be coming off the bench and I don't see him shooting under 33.3% from downtown under any circumstances.  If we bring Teague back, he should also pass that bar.  He has shot 33.3% or better from 3 for 6 straight years, including 36.8% last season.  For returning or potentially returning personnel, Dedmon is a big wild card for his %.  Brutal last year.  38.2% and 35.5% the two prior seasons.  He could easily bounce back. 

On the other side of the coin, Fernando and Goodwin seem unlikely to pass that number.  I don't mind them getting the chance to take some this season given that Fernando's jumper is promising and Goodwin is raw enough that you want him to try to develop that shot.  Bembry shouldn't be taking 3's ever.  Agree that LP should not have allowed him to take those unless he plans to not bring Bembry back and to upgrade the shooting from that reserve swingman spot next season.  VC, Parker, Len, Crabbe, Jones, etc. - none of  these guys will be back.

I would think that it will be one of TS's tasks this offseason to upgrade the 3pt shooting off the bench so our team is more effective with that shot than we were this year.  If we don't, we are stocking the team with the wrong personnel for this coach and need to make a change.  

[Buzzard]

36 minutes ago, AHF said:

First, I expect Huerter will be coming off the bench and I don't see him shooting under 33.3% from downtown under any circumstances.  If we bring Teague back, he should also pass that bar.  He has shot 33.3% or better from 3 for 6 straight years, including 36.8% last season.  For returning or potentially returning personnel, Dedmon is a big wild card for his %.  Brutal last year.  38.2% and 35.5% the two prior seasons.  He could easily bounce back. 

On the other side of the coin, Fernando and Goodwin seem unlikely to pass that number.  I don't mind them getting the chance to take some this season given that Fernando's jumper is promising and Goodwin is raw enough that you want him to try to develop that shot.  Bembry shouldn't be taking 3's ever.  Agree that LP should not have allowed him to take those unless he plans to not bring Bembry back and to upgrade the shooting from that reserve swingman spot next season.  VC, Parker, Len, Crabbe, Jones, etc. - none of  these guys will be back.

I would think that it will be one of TS's tasks this offseason to upgrade the 3pt shooting off the bench so our team is more effective with that shot than we were this year.  If we don't, we are stocking the team with the wrong personnel for this coach and need to make a change.  

My outside hope is we sign two good shooters which would make us 8 deep. Only one shooter and we would be 7 deep. This is taking into account Reddish continues what he started in January; and Hunter at a minimum has no lapses. Hunter shot .355 for the season which I think is pretty good for a rookie. We both agree here it is on Schlenk to get us better personnel.

That still leaves 4 or 5 question marks on the bench. Its one thing to have the shooters; its another to use the non shooters properly.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Buzzard

[sturt]

39 minutes ago, AHF said:

Fernando and Goodwin seem unlikely to pass that number.  I don't mind them getting the chance to take some this season given that Fernando's jumper is promising and Goodwin is raw enough that you want him to try to develop that shot.

My over/under on Fernando is 30 for next season. If he gets there, I'll be satisfied, and will up my expectations for the following year accordingly.

My over/under on Goodwin is 35, actually. Fwiw, it's easy for me to envision an improvement on his 30 because of both his previous 33, and because his G-league numbers were actually pretty strong...

 

43 minutes ago, AHF said:

For returning or potentially returning personnel, Dedmon is a big wild card for his %.  Brutal last year.  38.2% and 35.5% the two prior seasons.  He could easily bounce back. 

Yep.

 

44 minutes ago, AHF said:

VC, Parker, Len, Crabbe, Jones, etc. - none of  these guys will be back.

Yep.

And though I wish it would've worked out b/c I was a Bembry cheerleader at times, it hasn't. It's hard to see any rationale for bringing him back unless we throw virtually all of our 2020 cap space at two players, and have to sign guys to vet minimums to fill-out the roster. In that situation, Pierce has made it clear he does love him some Bembry, and perhaps something would get done. That just doesn't seem plausible, but it is possible.

 

48 minutes ago, AHF said:

I would think that it will be one of TS's tasks this offseason to upgrade the 3pt shooting off the bench so our team is more effective with that shot than we were this year.

No doubt.

The ripple effect of signing a starter-quality wing will, on its own of course, achieve some of that.

And that's why it's a tough sell to me to think Schlenk will pursue any back-up PG or any back-up PF who doesn't help in that way.

Still say that defensive chops are at least the equal concern, though, which is what makes it more complicated for 2020, and thus more likely that he gets one or two of those this time, and looks to land the third piece in summer 2021.

 

(I'd reply to Buzzard, btw, but as far as I know, he's wimped out of any discussion with muah anyhow, right? )

 

 

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, AHF said:

I have no horse in the race.  20 games is unreasonable from my third person perspective and I don't think you'll find a single taker with that.  Was just trying to facilitate something both of you guys might bite on.

16 games =20% of the season. And it’s almost between 9 and 20. I don’t have a horse in this either but I may wanna get one  

[Buzzard]

10 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

16 games =20% of the season. And it’s almost between 9 and 20. I don’t have a horse in this either but I may wanna get one  

I will do 16 games but we have to agree on the avatars first.