Supes Offseason fixes

[JTB]

10 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

 

From a size standpoint

 

6 - 1 ( high scorer/high assist PG )

6 - 8 ( defensive wing / midrange scorer )

6 - 7 ( defensive wing / 3 pt shooter )

6 - 8 ( defensive F/C )

6 - 11 ( offensive C / 3-level scorer )

 

FINALLY!!!  You realize that Hunter can be a "big 2"!!

I'm proud of your growth Supes.  I can roll with this squad. 

I love the idea of having all this size around Trae. This is what was envisioned with Cam & Hunter.

and most Trae fans know that adding a elite offensive big like KAT for Trae is massive.

Supes normally throws 1 piece in his overhauls that I don’t like but he did great here! This lineup addresses several issues.

a lot of size and defensive ability around Trae & KAT while keeping the 3pt shooting intact.

Hunter may be able to get to another offensive level under Synder. Putting him at the 2 would give us a huge mismatch. Hunter isn’t great at dribbling and playmaking but he is decently good at sizing up his opponents and taking the middy. It would be a easy go to offensively.

[AHF]

3 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

Hasn't even been elite in the last 3 seasons so why the deception? Just curious.

 You made a claim that there was no metric that supports the idea of him being an elite offensive player.  I gave you all kinds of metrics that do and called out that his numbers were bad (for him) this season due to injury and playing out of position.  That is transparent and the opposite of deception.

His numbers the seasons before this year - including the two prior seasons which are part of the last 3 you are talking about - are elite.  Last season he was All-NBA, #6 overall in Offensive Win Shares, #12 overall in OffensiveBPM, #10 overall in VORP, #10 overall in PER, #16 overall in ORB, #21 in OffensiveRAPTOR.  He was #11 overall in points per possession and of the 10 people in front of him he had a better ORTG than all but two of them (better than Embiid, Curry, Tatum, etc.).  As I mentioned above, he was elite in On/Off differential in his team's performance as well (I don't know his precise rank but I suspect he is top 10).

His numbers are just as good two seasons ago.  

So that is two of the last three years with elite numbers.  But your claim was that there was not a single metric that suggested he was elite.  

But you are going to pretend that none of this is elite or none of it counts because it didn't happen this season?  Those are still metrics and they are still elite.  

3 hours ago, Peoriabird said:

8th best this past year? Don't think so

Right...the season he was injured 70% of the year and playing out of position is included in his #8 all-time ranking in ORTG but he doesn't rank that high for this season alone.  Shocking that a guy who misses the vast majority of the year with injury and played out of position didn't have his best season.  Go figure.  I conceded that in my first post.  Did you read it?

I don't have a problem with you saying that you think he is forever injured and we should ignore the elite offensive numbers he put up over the rest of his career.  Or you could say that his efficiency falls off a cliff in the playoffs when teams scheme against him and so his regular season elite play should be disregarded or discounted.  We can agree or disagree on that.  But claiming there isn't a single metric that supports him being elite when he has the #8 career ORTG in NBA history...  You might as well say no one is elite if that is your standard because as I pointed out he outdoes people like Steph Curry in a bunch of metrics over the last 3 years and I'd sure as **** consider Steph to be an elite offensive player.

[Peoriabird]

Elite is Lebron and Curry at their prime...Has Kat been Lebron and Curry in their decline the last 3 years?  

[Peoriabird]

Nikola Jokic's ortg is more than twice that of Kat and if Kat's production over the last 3 years is considered elite then what is Jokic's stats?  Elite too? even though Kat's average ORTG is 4 and Jokic's is 9

[AHF]

Just now, Peoriabird said:

Nikola Jokic's ortg is more than twice that of Kat and if Kat's production over the last 3 years is considered elite then what is Jokic's stats?  Elite too? even though Kat's average ORTG is 4 and Jokic's is 9

You are talking about this season again, right?  Again, I stipulate that KAT's numbers this season aren't elite.  But that wasn't your claim.

Jokic's career ORTG is #3 in the history of the game.  Of course he is elite.  Many more than the top 20 in the history of the game are elite at least as I understand the word.  The only issue I would have with some of the people at the top of the list is that they are limited scorers who only take really good shots (this especially applies to centers who do little more than shoot around the rim and so to be in the company of guys like Jokic, KAT, Magic, Stockton, etc. at the top of that list is pretty impressive for players who are leading and versatile scorers).

7 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Elite is Lebron and Curry at their prime...Has Kat been Lebron and Curry in their decline the last 3 years?  

Can you define elite?  I consider anyone in the top few % of the league to be elite.  539 players played in the NBA this season.  Being in the top 25 means being in the top 5% of players.  That seems elite to me. 

I am inferring that you think that no one in the NBA is elite today other than Jokic (because LeBron and Curry can't match their prime numbers right now so they and pretty much everyone other than Jokic fall short of that standard) but maybe you are trying to say something that I'm just not understanding. 

Better to work off a common definition with clarity that talk past each other without it.

(Even so, I still claim anyone in the top 20 all time in a metric is elite in that metric regardless of definition.)

[Peoriabird]

A - 90-100

B - 80-90

C -70-80

D -60-70

F - below 60

 

8.5 and above Elite

7.0-8.5 Excellent offensive player

5.5-7.0  very good offensive player

4.0-5.5  good offensive player

2.5-4.0 above average offensive player

1.0-2.5 average offensive player

[ShooterSays]

1 hour ago, JTB said:

Supes normally throws 1 piece in his overhauls that I don’t like but he did great here! This lineup addresses several issues.

I agree, this was a good post. Tempted to throw one together myself next time I’m at a computer and have a little time. 

Love the OG addition, but I’m not as sold on KAT as I was a few months ago. Purely going off the eye test on a 4 game sample size tho lol

[AHF]

15 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

A - 90-100

B - 80-90

C -70-80

D -60-70

F - below 60

 

8.5 and above Elite

7.0-8.5 Excellent offensive player

5.5-7.0  very good offensive player

4.0-5.5  good offensive player

2.5-4.0 above average offensive player

1.0-2.5 average offensive player

What do these numbers represent?  Does this mean that the top 10% of players get an A rating and the top 15% are elite?  

[Peoriabird]

Elite means that you separate yourself from the rest so Jordan, Jokic and Curry have been elite offensive players during their careers.  Kat isn't even in the same stratosphere with those guys

[AHF]

3 minutes ago, Peoriabird said:

Elite means that you separate yourself from the rest so Jordan, Jokic and Curry have been elite offensive players during their careers.  Kat isn't even in the same stratosphere with those guys

That doesn’t answer the question so would still appreciate an explanation of what your numbers mean.

If you want to focus on names, who other than Jokic has been elite in two of the last three years?

[Peoriabird]

If you want to focus on names, who other than Jokic has been elite the last 3 years?

Maybe Curry and Lebron but that's about it for an entire season.  It certainly hadn't been Kat

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[NBASupes]

6 minutes ago, AHF said:

That doesn’t answer the question so would still appreciate an explanation of what your numbers mean.

If you want to focus on names, who other than Jokic has been elite in two of the last three years?

There is elite and their is HOF tier. Jokic is in a HOF tier. KAT previous seasons was seen as an elite offensive player. 

[AHF]

1 hour ago, Peoriabird said:

If you want to focus on names, who other than Jokic has been elite the last 3 years?

Maybe Curry and Lebron but that's about it for an entire season.  It certainly hadn't been Kat

•  
•  

Thanks.  All-Time Great is definitely not how most people use that term.

So what did those numbers mean?

[georgia]

We have the 4th highest cap next year already.     No way we get better.    No one wants collins unless we attach picks to him.     
 

I think we just need to hope to sign a vet to a minimum and pray.   

murray could get something back if that is a direction to move.   

[georgia]

Joe ingles and Jae crowder 

both played for snyder and they’d be improvements over collins

[JustSomeGuy]

I’ve been lurking around here for awhile and generally enjoy the basketball banter about our Hawks.

But anyone who sees this team play and who thinks Hunter should be in a primary ball handling capacity is nuts. These proposals were all DOA for me when they result in Hunter, who can’t dribble or pass his way out a paper bag, playing as a lead guard. All that does is increase Trae’s ball handling responsibility and make the other 4 guys fully dependent on him as a shot creator.

[JustSomeGuy]

Generally a successful offseason is one where both JC and Hunter are upgraded for more consistently productive players. I know there’s been a lot of handwringing over win shares and +/- but there’s no way just on the pure eye test anyone can look at them and see that to be true. JC moreso than Hunter.

Realistically we have an upgrade for JC waiting on our bench that just needs some seasoning in JJ but the only real fit for Hunter is to move to playing the 4 full time. This would accent his strengths as a wing defender but hide his greatest weaknesses in shot creating, dribbling, and passing. He’s an above average POA defender but not particularly on ball disruptive. He’s a poor rebounder for his size but has potential to be better if taken out of a wing role and would help our spacing. I think he would thrive guarding stretch 4s primarily instead of quicker 3s (as we have seen Brown and Tatum blow past him one time too many this series). He is still soft and has to shed his injury prone label but that’s his only real fit with an upgrade at the 3. 

[JustSomeGuy]

Also JC is done here. I had hoped for him finding his way and role as a pick and pop 4 with range but he’s only gotten softer and more injury prone with time. +/- be damned but my guy is a complete Black hole this series because he can neither score consistently on the interior of the Celtics 4 guard lineups, hit open perimeter shots, or provide enough perimeter defense on the other end.

If we had a front court player who could add any interior presence this series would look different. 

[Diesel]

13 hours ago, AHF said:

What does this mean D?  I think it is supposed to be loss leader but that is something you give away at a discounted price to obtain a larger and more attractive book of business.  (Like a free month of streaming before you start getting charged $15/month or something).  I'm not sure how that translates to JC.  If the point is just that his value will be much lower after this season, then I fully agree.  His inability to ever fix his perimeter shooting really hurt his offensive production and he put up career lows (or second worst career seasons) in points, free throws, 3pt%, fg%, rebounding, assists, steals and blocks on a per minute basis.  The improvement on positional D in't enough to overcome that kind of drop in productivity across the board.

What I mean is that we will end of trading JC for peanuts in hopes of finding something better than JC in the person of JJ or somebody else that we can pick up via FAcy. 

I think it's really going to be hard to replace JC.   I've said consistently and believe that we have been using him wrong.   Moreover, I think that we have used him so wrong that we have enhanced his flaws. i.e. we have placed them on full display.     To me, JC is a very good post player.  He could definitely be Shareef like.  And before he came down with the Boutineer's disease his outside shooting was good enough to make him an elite offensive big man.    But even when you take that away, you have a big man who can score in the post both face up or back to the basket. 

I suppose that we will trade him for 2nd round picks or something and some other team is going to make him get surgery, wait on him and in 2 years, he will be an allstar or something very close because they will play him the right way.   If we were to move Clint and somehow get a guy like Porzingis.  It would be a perfect pairing for JC.   Porzingis would allow JC to play inside.  And with the master of spacing coaching the team, our frontcourt would be great 

Unfortunately, there's too much under the bridge.  JC is the butt of everybody's criticism.  He has been on the trade block consistently for the last 3 years.  Even though he has been a professional in all of this, it will be a good thing for him to play elsewhere if that's what happens. 

 

[Diesel]

19 minutes ago, JustSomeGuy said:

Realistically we have an upgrade for JC waiting on our bench that just needs some seasoning in JJ but the only real fit for Hunter is to move to playing the 4 full time.

Good start JSG...  I agree with a lot of what you said. 

This is the dynamic that many people miss about moving JC out for lets say 3 2nd rounders and a 1st round pick swap... and clearing cap space...

We put our hopes in JJ.  JJ will no doubt play the 3 and Hunter will play the 4.  Simply put JJ is a better ball handler, a better passer, and a willing passer.  He is made for the 3.   OR  We play Bey at the 3 and Hunter at the 4.   Bey has what Hunter lacks... He knows what to do around the basket.  Hunter is a better defender, but defense can be taught. 

I think the problem of all this is that we have been looking at all of these roles in the crucible of Nate's offensive design.  I don't think Quin has put in anything close to what he wants to do in Atlanta.   I think he has enhanced Nate's system and used it to teach our players how it's supposed to work.   I think he has thrown out just a few things and has added on to a few things but he hasn't had time to implement what he thinks will work.   So we can be looking at this whole thing and forecasting our beliefs about each player incorrectly. 

Back to us... when or if we move Hunter to the 4 or even JJ to the 4, we really lack size.  JC is 6'9" 235 -238...  he gives us legit size.  I think JJ is 6'7" 220..  and Hunter is somewhere around 6'8 223... or something like that.  but Hunter never plays big and he doesn't play physically often.  So we'd purposely make ourselves smaller and less physical.   You need Physical in this nba.  You need some dogs at the 4.   Because they have some supersized bigs in the league that you have to matchup with.  I just hope we build right.