Poll of the Day 8-1-2023

[AHF]

26 minutes ago, Diesel said:

You would have to define.... "Hold".  

We are talking per minute scoring rebounds and assists right?  What do you mean by "hold"....  +-?

 

I am talking about about people who saw a significant degredation in their production after they had a minutes rise.  I've given  you 7 who either increased their production or didn't have a significant degredation.  If it is equally likely or more likely for players who became starters after a big increase in minutes to have a big drop in their production due to fatigue and facing off against opposing starters as you've suggested, we should see Hawks over the last decade who had that kind of drop after a big increase in minutes.

[Diesel]

2 minutes ago, AHF said:

I am talking about about people who saw a significant degredation in their production after they had a minutes rise.  I've given  you 7 who either increased their production or didn't have a significant degredation.  If it is equally likely or more likely for players who became starters after a big increase in minutes to have a big drop in their production due to fatigue and facing off against opposing starters as you've suggested, we should see Hawks over the last decade who had that kind of drop after a big increase in minutes.

Since there's no commitment to "hold", I will define it as %Error = +1.0

I've spreadsheeted this for you... using your player... well the first 5 that you brought up and their per minute difference with jumps in PT.

I have put the positive achievements in blue and the negative achievements in red.    Over 1.0% Error in the negative means that the prediction didn't "hold". 

So to start...  DMC didn't hold as far as his per minute scoring with a jump in minutes.   Whereas OO held very well. 

 

CC didn't hold with rebs....

DM had problems holding with points and assists.   His rebounding was outstanding though. 

JJ held.   And really excelled.

I can continue if you like.  We will find that there are some that held and didn't hold to per minute stats. 

Unless of course, you go and change the definition of "held".

 

[AHF]

Now you are taking a useless approach to the numbers.  If you don't think that the per 36 numbers held for DMC and CC then you don't think anything is reasonable including per36 minutes after guys are playing 30 mpg either because that type of variation happens there too.  And now we are in the land where no numbers can be meaningful so why expect CC to be similarly productive next year compared to how productive he was last year.

You might as well say Trae's scoring is meaningless because it fell roughly last year from 29.3 in 2021-22 to 27.1 in 2022-23.  That is not a meaningful change to me but is by your standard and it happened when his minutes were stable.  (It has to be meaningful when minutes are stable to be meaningful when minutes are rising.)  Variation is going to happen from season to season even for players whose minutes are stable.  So what you need to do is show negative variation well beyond that for players whose minutes rise to support your initial premise that we can't rely on per minute productivity due to worsening performance driven by fatigue and tougher matchups when players start to get significantly more minutes.

You still don't have a single example of a player whose per36 numbers weren't stable or improving among players who saw a big rise in their minutes let alone so many examples that we should conclude that it is a majority of those players.

[Spud2nique]

I voted for Mathues!  

 

That dude should start at PF over JJ!!!

 

@kg01 @JayBirdHawk @warcore @akay @AHF @Gray Mule @Diesel @Sothron 

COME AT ME!!!  I’ll take on the entire room I don’t give a ..

Edited August 4, 2023 by Spud2nique

[Spud2nique]

Mathues had a stellar career! Perhaps he should train with with Jalen  

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Edited August 4, 2023 by Spud2nique

[akay]

2 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

I voted for Mathues!  

 

That dude should start at PF over JJ!!!

 

@kg01 @JayBirdHawk @warcore @akay @AHF @Gray Mule @Diesel @Sothron 

COME AT ME!!!  I’ll take on the entire room I don’t give a ..

Issok Spud, you've backed yourself into a corner and gotta fight to survive now - I understand.

Jalen going through his rocky training montage though so you better be prepared to say sorry in a couple months 

[Diesel]

3 hours ago, AHF said:

Now you are taking a useless approach to the numbers.  If you don't think that the per 36 numbers held for DMC and CC then you don't think anything is reasonable including per36 minutes after guys are playing 30 mpg either because that type of variation happens there too.  And now we are in the land where no numbers can be meaningful so why expect CC to be similarly productive next year compared to how productive he was last year.

Per 36 is a per minute evaluation.   I did the same thing mathematically and applied to the change in minutes. 

As far as no number is reasonable... didn't I applaud OO?  Didn't I applaud Joe Johnson?

Where do you come up with "your" conclusions??  I asked you to define what "hold" means... and you didn't.  What did you want it to mean...  
OH.. they were "close" ...  What's that mean?  20% off.  30% off.   CC Rebound 16,2% lower than his per minute predicted in the previous year.   Is that "close"?  

Just say it... we don't want to try to determine if per36 is valid. 

BTW, I did put Trae's numbers in... and he did dip from last year to this year.  In places you would expect with the addition of DM. 

Funny thing is that for Trae, per36 works because he plays about 35 mpg so his per36 stats are in line with what he does on the floor.  That's different than somebody who plays 7 mpg.. moving up to 34 mpg. 

 

 

 

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, akay said:

Issok Spud, you've backed yourself into a corner and gotta fight to survive now - I understand.

Hey, y’all made me the bad guy, you asked for it. You are signing the check, I’m gonna cash it. 

1 hour ago, akay said:

Jalen going through his rocky training montage though so you better be prepared to say sorry in a couple months 

I’ll apologize to him and his training chair  

[Diesel]

19 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Hey, y’all made me the bad guy

You made yourself the bad guy when you left me outside of the outsiders?

As much as I stay outside?  Sheez, I welcomed you to the outside back when you were trying to be an insider.  And you leave me out?

Say Hello to the bad guy!

 

[kg01]

36 minutes ago, Diesel said:

You made yourself the bad guy when you left me outside of the outsiders?

As much as I stay outside?  Sheez, I welcomed you to the outside back when you were trying to be an insider.  And you leave me out?

Say Hello to the bad guy!

 

Ooh @Spud2nique, you've weaponized dies-o against you.  If yall start tusslin in the 'sac (hehe), I still got yer back. But I'll toss dies-o onto his front lawn afterwards as a Goodwill gesture. 

2 hours ago, akay said:

Issok Spud, you've backed yourself into a corner and gotta fight to survive now - I understand.

Jalen going through his rocky training montage though so you better be prepared to say sorry in a couple months 

Yeah Spud out here swinging on everyone, even the folks that agree with 'im.  It's glorious. 

[Spud2nique]

3 hours ago, Diesel said:

You made yourself the bad guy when you left me outside of the outsiders?

You were a given that’s why. You’re like the godfather Dies you know that. Take a bow baby, everybody knows Dies is inside, outside and all around! 

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, kg01 said:

Yeah Spud out here swinging on everyone, even the folks that agree with 'im.  It's glorious. 

I just wanted to get something to eat.  

@kg01 (Will Teasle)  

 

 

[Spud2nique]

3 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

Hey, y’all made me the bad guy, you asked for it. You are signing the check, I’m gonna cash it. 

I’ll apologize to him and his training chair  

At this point if we don’t land Pascal @AHF either turning my avatar into an “insiders rule” or a Jalen pic . ohhh boiiii

[Spud2nique]

2 hours ago, kg01 said:

I'll toss dies-o onto his front lawn afterwards as a Goodwill gesture.

I’ll make sure to lace his lawn with bacon o bitties for the pups in the middle of the night.   

[kg01]

1 hour ago, Spud2nique said:

I’ll make sure to lace his lawn with bacon o bitties for the pups in the middle of the night.   

So are you casting John Witherspoon to play the part of @Diesel in the movie?

[Diesel]

2 hours ago, Spud2nique said:

You were a given that’s why. You’re like the godfather Dies you know that. Take a bow baby, everybody knows Dies is inside, outside and all around! 

[Spud2nique]

1 hour ago, kg01 said:

So are you casting John Witherspoon to play the part of @Diesel in the movie?

Rip but yes he would have make a great Diesel.

[Diesel]

18 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

Rip but yes he would have make a great Diesel.