Howard Average????????

[AHF]

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Put those together and that makes for someone who is between great and average.

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Exactly

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Between great and average now.

However, the original discussion began about debating Howard as a prospect which inherently involves projection.

Howard is currently a great prospect in the NBA and is currently good enough that it would not shock any NBA writer if he was an All-Star player in the East next year.

99% of players improve from their level of play when they are out of HS two years to when they have been in the NBA five. Yet we are saying that it is an unreasonble assumption to assume he will improve? That doesn't make sense to me.

The guy is a second tier back to the basket player in the NBA right now (below the Duncan, Garnett, Amare, Dirk, Brand level of guys but competitive with the Chris Bosh, Pau Gasol types depending on what you need from your guy) but is probably a top 15 prospect in the NBA to the point where teams would trade established All-Stars for him in a heartbeat. That is an elite prospect.

Putting together the list of guys you would not trade for him (not for one year but a true trade) is a good way of establishing his value as a prospect. I don't think exodus ever did that on the other thread but that would be interesting to see.

[exodus]

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However, the original discussion began about debating Howard as a prospect which inherently involves projection.

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Actually the argument started when chillzatl (it's all your fault dude) said he thought Howard was being overrated here. I agreed with him due to Howards lack of shooting and suspect D. Then the Princess came in flaming and things snoballed.

I am not into the fantasy trades that will never happen scenarios. They aren't letting Howard go.

I did say I would trade either Marvin or Smoove for him fyi.

However that would obviously never happen.

[AHF]

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However, the original discussion began about debating Howard as a prospect which inherently involves projection.

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Actually the argument started when chillzatl (it's all your fault dude) said he thought Howard was being overrated here. I agreed with him due to Howards lack of shooting and suspect D.

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The argument was whether he was overrated in a discussion about who people would trade for him. It was about his value as a prospect not where he ranked in the NBA based on his 2005 play alone.

[exodus]

And when I pointed out his weaknesses, agreeing that he was overrated, some people freaked.

No way would I trade JJ and Marvin for Howard and Hill which was the original proposed trade. I would be reluctant to trade JJ straight up for Howard.

Howard needs to show me some improvement in his skills before I assume he will continue to improve in the future.

[AHF]

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And when I pointed out his weaknesses, agreeing that he was overrated, some people freaked.

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His weaknesses don't mean that most people were overrating him as a prospect, IMO.

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No way would I trade JJ and Marvin for Howard and Hill which was the original proposed trade. I would be reluctant to trade JJ straight up for Howard.

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I wouldn't do them both either. However, I would trade JJ or anyone else on our team for him because of his upside and his current production.

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Howard needs to show me some improvement in his skills before I assume he will continue to improve in the future.

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I think it is unreasonable not to assume he will continue to improve in the future given his age, experience and his improvement last season.

[exodus]

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I think it is unreasonable not to assume he will continue to improve in the future given his age, experience and his improvement last season.

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Howards shooting from the field (other than dunks) didn't improve at all last season. His foul shooting got worse.

How long do you think it took for Chicago fans to realize that Chandler wouldn't be able to hit a mid-range shot?

[Final_quest]

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I am not into the fantasy trades that will never happen scenarios. They aren't letting Howard go.

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That's how we started talking about Howard in the first place. A couple of us were discussing the possibility of Howard demanding to be moved to Atlanta. I would be a little surprised, but not shocked, if Howard wants to sign his first big contract with us.

[AHF]

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I think it is unreasonable not to assume he will continue to improve in the future given his age, experience and his improvement last season.

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Howards shooting from the field (other than dunks) didn't improve at all last season. His foul shooting got worse.

How long do you think it took for Chicago fans to realize that Chandler wouldn't be able to hit a mid-range shot?

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Chandler did improve after his second year out of high school. Most guys do.

Shaq never has been able to hit a mid-range shot. Who cares? Big picture the guy was awesome and improved his game considerably from his second year out of HS to his 5th in the NBA. If Howard is Shaq-lite that is fine with me. Nevertheless, I suspect we will see more improvement on his jumper than Shaq has shown.

I guess you can assume Howard never improves for purposes of assessing his trade value. I will assume he does.

Time will tell.

[Popeye]

[Final_quest]

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Howards shooting from the field (other than dunks) didn't improve at all last season. His foul shooting got worse.

How long do you think it took for Chicago fans to realize that Chandler wouldn't be able to hit a mid-range shot?

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See that's a big problem. You want to compare him to Chandler and Kwame when he's on a totally different level. The fact is Howard is setting NBA records for someone his age. He may not ever have a good mid-range shot, but if he can put up games where he is scoring 20+ points and grabbing 20+ rebounds does it matter?

[exodus]

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Shaq never has been able to hit a mid-range shot. Who cares? Big picture the guy was awesome and improved his game considerably from his second year out of HS to his 5th in the NBA.

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But Shaq scored a high percentage on his jump hooks, baseling turnarounds, etc. Right now Howard is shooting 45% on those attempts with no sign of improvement.

And Howard isn't 300+ pounds so he can't bully people like Shaq did.

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Chandler did improve after his second year out of high school

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Chandler can't shoot, although admittedly he does shoot better than Howard.

[exodus]

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but if he can put up games where he is scoring 20+ points and grabbing 20+ rebounds does it matter?

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In order for him to average over 20 ppg he will have to become a better shooter either from mid-range or in the post.

[Final_quest]

I didn't mean average 20+ ppg, but whatever.

It's just odd that you talk about Howard like he's Diop, Kwame, or some other major project. I guess it just bothers me that he has produced at an unprecedented level for someone his age, and you won't give him his props.

[exodus]

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produced at an unprecedented level for someone his age, and you won't give him his props.

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I have given him credit for being the arguably the best robounder in the game.

I don't assume he will become the next David Robinson though, or even get close.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

Ex . . while I'll agree that Howard is a tad bit overhyped RIGHT NOW, you need to look at what you're saying.

To say that he has to develop a mid range shot or become a better post player to average 20+ ppg, pretty much proves that you haven't watched enough of this kid . . especially since the Francis trade.

If Dwight keeps doing what he's doing right now, and NEVER develops a mid range jumper, the kid can EASILY average 20 ppg.

Why?

Because he'll get more touches, with the departure of Francis, and with him now being the focal point of the offense.

Jameer will get him the ball in the right spots, and Dwight will continue to use his athletic ability to get to the rim.

One other thing you need to realize.

He's going to get to the line A LOT next season. A whole lot. That in itself will help him become that consistent 20 ppg scorer . . perhaps even a 20 - 24 ppg scorer.

IF he EVER develops a mid-range game, this league better look out. He'll be better than David Robinson.

Right now, I'll compare Dwight to what Amare was after his 2nd season in the league. In Year 3, we saw Amare damn near become an MVP candidate. Don't be shocked if the same happens to Dwight next year, if Orlando gets on a roll.

[gsuteke]

i shot a 44 on the front without my "A" game.

i see you guys have been doing just fine without me

[chillzatl]

and that's because of his rebounding prowess. If you remove that (by remove I say lower to a realistic number) and look at the rest of his game, he is just average or maybe a notch below. He simply doesn't do anything great other than rebound and dunk AT THIS TIME. That's not to say he's a chump or that he's not going to be great. But right now, he's only slightly above average and that is clearly because of his rebounding.

I also find him very overrated. People look at his rebounding, something that simply comes natural to him and assume that in 2 more years he'll be scoring 25 a night and pulling down 18rpg. It's nice fantasy, but that's all it is.

Everyone is so quick to throw greatness on a guy because he has a solid season or two or really excels at one aspect of the game or another.

[AHF]

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and that's because of his rebounding prowess. If you remove that (by remove I say lower to a realistic number) and look at the rest of his game, he is just average or maybe a notch below. He simply doesn't do anything great other than rebound and dunk AT THIS TIME. That's not to say he's a chump or that he's not going to be great. But right now, he's only slightly above average and that is clearly because of his rebounding.

I also find him very overrated. People look at his rebounding, something that simply comes natural to him and assume that in 2 more years he'll be scoring 25 a night and pulling down 18rpg. It's nice fantasy, but that's all it is.

Everyone is so quick to throw greatness on a guy because he has a solid season or two or really excels at one aspect of the game or another.

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His PER his rookie year is equal to the best of JJ's career. No one on the Hawks has equaled his PER from last year. Clearly he is doing something right.

[chillzatl]

that's great. But it still doesn't change the fact that he can't shoot, he doesn't have inside moves, he's not even a very good defender, he doesn't block shots and he doesn't shoot FT's well (I could break it down further). He's an average player who has WELL ABOVE AVERAGE rebounding instincts. Factoring all of that in, I can't say that he's anything but slightly above average RIGHT NOW. He's far too young to put any caps on though. He could very well become an MVP in two years if his shooting and defense improve. He obviously has the tools to do that. But RIGHT NOW, he's only slighty above average in my book.

[Packfill]

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that's great. But it still doesn't change the fact that he can't shoot, he doesn't have inside moves, he's not even a very good defender, he doesn't block shots and he doesn't shoot FT's well (I could break it down further). He's an average player who has WELL ABOVE AVERAGE rebounding instincts. Factoring all of that in, I can't say that he's anything but slightly above average RIGHT NOW. He's far too young to put any caps on though. He could very well become an MVP in two years if his shooting and defense improve. He obviously has the tools to do that. But RIGHT NOW, he's only slighty above average in my book.

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I only wish the Hawks youngster were so "average."