My wish in a PG: scoring

BusBoyIsBack · May 17, 2007

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The law supporters kill me with the idea that law is a sure fire top tier NBA PG. I don't see that as being the case at all. I think he COULD be but I also could see him being a Rumeal Robinson or a Dujuan Wagner. He is NOT the sure things that Deron Williams, Chris Paul and Raymond Felton were.

Wagner? You've got to be kidding me. So you think Law is as unproven as a guy who was just drafted because of how many points he scored in a high school game?

As far as those three PGs being much better than any PG in this draft, that is also a joke.

All three match up favorably.

JC is a guy with more potential than all three.

exodus · May 17, 2007

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Paul, Deron and Felton weren't surefire great PGs either.

I was a bit skeptical of them at the time. Paul was too small and Deron didn't shoot well. Felton played out of control at times.

AtLaS · May 17, 2007

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is that those three were all MUCH better prospects than any PG in this draft.

I don't know that THAT'S true either, neither of those prospects had great statistics. Paul was the best statistically averaging 15 and 7 with 2 steals. Deron averaged about 12 and 6 on horrible 3p%'s, and Felton didn't have great stats either.

I'm not saying they weren't better prospects, but they weren't otherworldly in college..

Traceman · May 17, 2007

It didn't work out for him for a lot of reasons but his stock coming out of college was WAY higher than Law's. There is NO WAY that Law would have been drafted ahead of Nene, Wilcox, Amare Stoudemire and Caron Butler as Wagner was.

Law is not considered to be NEARLY as good a prospect as Williams, Paul or Felton. Those three were all consensus top 5 picks. Law is not even a consensus top 15 pick. This draft is stronger than that one but not THAT much stronger.

As for Crittenton, I am a big fan of his but I don't see him being better than Williams or Paul any time soon and likely not EVER.

BusBoyIsBack · May 17, 2007

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It didn't work out for him for a lot of reasons but his stock coming out of college was WAY higher than Law's. There is NO WAY that Law would have been drafted ahead of Nene, Wilcox, Amare Stoudemire and Caron Butler as Wagner was.

Law is not considered to be NEARLY as good a prospect as Williams, Paul or Felton. Those three were all consensus top 5 picks. Law is not even a consensus top 15 pick. This draft is stronger than that one but not THAT much stronger.

As for Crittenton, I am a big fan of his but I don't see him being better than Williams or Paul any time soon and likely not EVER.

This draft isn't stronger?

This is one of the deepest drafts ever.

The reason the PG prospects are so down in projected ratings is because of how absurdly deep this draft is at the forward position.

All these forward prospects are helluva lot better than bums like Butler and Wilcox.

Traceman · May 17, 2007

Not that they didn't have ANY question marks - they did. But many thought Paul was a lock for ROY (and he was). Some of those same folks thought that Williams projected to be better long term (time will tell) and Felton projected to be as good long term (again, time will tell).

On the other hand, this year's PG crop doesn't even have a consensus top 10 pick. Most consider Conley to be the best prospect but if Paul, Williams or Felton were in this draft, they would have all been AT LEAST top 10 picks and Paul and Williams would have been top 5.

Traceman · May 17, 2007

I can only hope that you were thinking of Rasual Butler (who is far from being a bum by the way).

This draft is deep at the forward position but that draft had some terrific forwards as well:

Stoudemire

Boozer

CARON Butler

Prince

Gooden

Nene

Wilcox

Dunleavy

Jefferies

Nachbar

Gadzuric

RASUAL Butler

Ely

Woods

bfwolf · May 17, 2007

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Why not deal MW for Green (almost wherever he lands) and still get your Pg of choice at 11? That seems more of a sure thing.

W

Do you really think anybody would do it, Walter? I love it if we could get somebody to bite...just hard for me to imagine anybody has watched Marvin Williams the last 2 years and is thinking "yeah, I'll take him over Jeff Green."

May 17, 2007

Busboy...

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This draft isn't stronger?

This is one of the deepest drafts ever.

This is what Traceman said and what you were responding to:

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This draft is stronger than that one but not THAT much stronger.

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The reason the PG prospects are so down in projected ratings is because of how absurdly deep this draft is at the forward position.

Huh? A great player is a great player and it's not like GMs want only forwards...oh, wait, BK does...anyhow, a great player, especially a SENIOR player shouldn't be overshadowed because of the forward position. MAYBE the center position BUT NOT SMALL FORWARD! Especially Pg which is hard to fill itself.

Law isn't a great prospect. He is a good one. He doesn't have much pro potential IMO, but he is a decent college Pg. Don't cry about Brewer and Greene being so great that a SENIOR Pg can't get his name called.

This draft is strong, but after Durant and Oden it is NOT great, only good. Frankly, I would have taken Caron Butler over most of the Sfs in this draft.

W

May 17, 2007

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Why not deal MW for Green (almost wherever he lands) and still get your Pg of choice at 11? That seems more of a sure thing.

W

Do you really think anybody would do it, Walter? I love it if we could get somebody to bite...just hard for me to imagine anybody has watched Marvin Williams the last 2 years and is thinking "yeah, I'll take him over Jeff Green."

...But he's our GM.

Maybe, if a team like Minnesota wanted a more ready to seriously contribute prospect to give Garnett one last try. Maybe.

W

BusBoyIsBack · May 18, 2007

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Busboy...

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This draft isn't stronger?

This is one of the deepest drafts ever.

This is what Traceman said and what you were responding to:

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This draft is stronger than that one but not THAT much stronger.

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The reason the PG prospects are so down in projected ratings is because of how absurdly deep this draft is at the forward position.

Huh? A great player is a great player and it's not like GMs want only forwards...oh, wait, BK does...anyhow, a great player, especially a SENIOR player shouldn't be overshadowed because of the forward position. MAYBE the center position BUT NOT SMALL FORWARD! Especially Pg which is hard to fill itself.

Law isn't a great prospect. He is a good one. He doesn't have much pro potential IMO, but he is a decent college Pg. Don't cry about Brewer and Greene being so great that a SENIOR Pg can't get his name called.

This draft is strong, but after Durant and Oden it is NOT great, only good. Frankly, I would have taken Caron Butler over most of the Sfs in this draft.

W

I don't know why I associated Butler with being a bum considering he made the all-star team.

All Im saying is that there are some very talented prospects in this draft. Brewer, Yi Jianlin, Jeff Green, etc all look to project well to the next level and have great upside.

I think Law is simply just getting shafted in how he's being rated.

It happens every year in every sport. One player simply doesn't get any respect and turns into a steal.

If you look at Law there is really no reason why the guy shouldn't be regarded higher.

He's an experienced playmaker who was arguably the most clutch player in college basketball. At 6'3 he's got the size to play the position as well.

If we pass on him as well as others, some team is going to get the next Chauncey Billups late in the draft

Diesel · May 18, 2007

The truth is too many of you guys are putting too much trust into what Draftexpress and nbadraft.net has to say. The truth is that this draft is not so strong. Not after Durant and Oden. The other truth is that Law will definitely move up and him not being top 10 will be a huge surprise.

These mock sites get a lot of their information from agents. So their purpose is no longer evaluating the talent, but predicting where they think a player is going to go. A site like Draftexpress gets their scoop from the agent and run with it.

Go back over history and see how many times draftexpress has said something that was big news but then a GM came out and said " I never knew anything about this"? That's an agent using draftexpress to whip up the fans and the other media who is too stupid to do their own research.

For you guys who don't keep up with college basketball, don't place all your faith in these sites... I use these sites for their scouting content on Europlayers and players from schools that dont get much pub...

But here's Diesel's view:

after Durant, here's the players:

Noah - Don't sleep, this guy has been the best defender in the last 2 years. His championship game against UCLA last year was damn outstanding. He may project as Pf, but he will find a good home in Phoenix.

Green - Gritty, nasty, defensive player. He's a throwback. Like Aaron McKie back when him and Eddie Jones were running things!!!

JWright - Why isn't this guy getting respect? Nobody ever watch a Kansas game. This guy is the truth. Can I say this: Better than Paul Pierce.

Law IV... I don't know how Law will not be in the top 10... I don't know what guys are drinking? Maybe they missed the epic battles between Law and Durant. Maybe they missed the epic battles between Law and Texas Tech. Maybe they weren't watching the NCAAs when Law went head to head with big shooting freshman Sosa... To compare Conley Jr. to Law and say that Jr. is better is a huh, what did he just say?? Saying that is like saying that Brevin Knight is better than Baron Davis. Now the Critt comparisons can work if you talk about Critts potential but turnovers and poise are a big evaluation tool for PGs. I watched Critt most of the year. I was unimpressed by GT but happy they beat Duke. The one game that sticks in my mind is GTech vs UNLV. He let some guy named Wink put the defensive clamps on him. He's going to need more time.

Brewer - the guy is skinny but he's the next Vince with better defense. He's going to be that swingman who can actually slash and drive and hit from outside. He's scary good.

Guys like Afflalo and Fazekas will have to get more respect too!!

coachx · May 18, 2007

Diesel,

I rarely can say this but I agree with all your statements in the last post.

Going back to the draft where Boget, Marvin, Paul, D. Williams, Felton werethe top picks.

I personally think that at least 5 players and as many as 8 in this years draft would be drafted before any of the guys in the 2005 draft.

Oden, Durant, Brewer, Hoford, Noah, Green, Yalani & Hibbert would have forced Bogut and Marvin to do more than a 1 man workout b/c there would be competition for who gets picked #3,#4, & so on.

Oden, Hibbert and Hoford would have crushed Bogut in one on one work outs and exposed how soft he is.

Green and Brewer would have crushed Marvin in on one on one workouts. Both of their defesive games are too much for Marvin to handle, especially as a freshman coming out of UNC.

Conley, Law , and Critt could all go befor or after Paul, Williams, or Felton.

If you combine the 2005 and 2007 (as if you only saw then in college at the age in which they entered the draft in their respected year I predict you would get:

1. Oden

2. Durant

3. Brewer

4. Hoford

5. Green

6. Hibbertt

7. Noah

8. Bogut

9. Yalani

10 Marvin

11. Paul

12. Conley Jr.

13. Law

14. Deron Williams

15. Felton

The 2005 draft was just plain weak !

Bogut is not in the same league as Oden, Hoford, Hibbert, or Noah.

Marvin as a freshamn would have been dominated by Green and Brewer.

Diesel · May 18, 2007

Coach, I agree with the essence of what you're saying... Becuase it's true.. but there's one thing you're really missing...

THE HYPE MACHINE...

The Hype Machine was hard at work in the 2005 draft... Marvin and Bogut had the benefit of being two of the most hyped players in the history of the draft.

The hype machine said that Marvin was the next James Worthy and that Bogut was better than Bill Walton. The Hype machine had people believing that Bogut bested Tim Duncan in the Olympics??

And Bogut helped out his own cause by talking tough... People thought that John Wayne had put on basketball shoes...

But Marvin takes the cake. What did he do to deserve so much hype?? Nothing. Coming off the bench and being the right size propelled Marvin into the place where he was.

The prognosticators (especially fans) tend to float to what they can't see and don't know more than what they can see and do.

Chris Paul and Deron were the best prospects coming out of that draft, but the hype machine made Paul look too fragile for the game and made Deron seem too fat. It seems like they were running around calling him fatboy.

So, I think the Hypemachine would have eventually chipped away everybody but Oden and Durant. Although Conley Jr. is getting the hypemachine ride this year. He'd probably be picked 5th.

BusBoyIsBack · May 19, 2007

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The truth is too many of you guys are putting too much trust into what Draftexpress and nbadraft.net has to say. The truth is that this draft is not so strong. Not after Durant and Oden. The other truth is that Law will definitely move up and him not being top 10 will be a huge surprise.

I disagree

I think there are a dozen studs in this draft. Not just because of what I see on these draft sites but because of what I've seen with my own two eyes

1)Oden- Potential to be one of the All-Time Greats

2)Durant- Undeniable Superstar potential

3)Hibbert- Potential to be the next big Georgetown big defensively. Held his own against Oden in head to head play

4)Noah- Potential to be a 7 foot AK47. Very underrated as an athlete. He can run the floor like a deer. Plays the game with a mean streak and a very underrated defender.

5)Yi Jianlian- Speaking of athletic 7 footers. Might instantly be the most fleet footed 7 footer in the league. Takes his man off the dribble and finishes like a 6'8 swingman.

6)Julian Wright- Another very athletic swingman. I hate him with a passion but he's got tremendous upside. He especially impressed me against UF

7)Corey Brewer- Speaking of UF, I watched this guy grow up from when he first got PT as a Freshman. You want to talk about upside, Brewer is your guy. He's got Bruce Bowen potential on D, but the ability to elevate with the best of them on the otehr end. Like Josh Smith, he still needs to work on his dribbling and perimeter shooting, but because of that athleticism, the upside is tremendous.

8)Mike Conley Jr- Many will point to the fact that he had Greg Oden on the team. I'll point to the games when they had an even more efficient offense without Oden when they pushed the ball up the court and Conley Jr, mature beyond his years had very impressive Assist/turnover ratios. He turned the ball an impressingly low amount of times for a Freshman. Add those Conley Sr genes into the equation and I don't doubt his ability to be the next big time rookie PG at all.

9)Jarvaris Crittenton- Speaking of PGs, one with just as much upside as all these other highly regarded prospects is Jarvaris Crittenton. With his 6'5 frame and speed and overall athleticism, Crittenton could be the next Baron Davis.

10)Acie Law- One of the most underrated players in the draft. Everyone overlooks a guy who helped revive a Texas A and M basketball program that was absolutely pathetic. Despite being the focal point by opposing defenses, Law still managed to be one of the most efficient PGs in the nation. He was also regarded as one of the most clutch players in the nation. Usually when the ball was in his hands at the end of the game, he was money a la Chauncey Billups. He's got both the physical and mental tools of a Billups.

11)Thaddeus Young- I diagree with the Paul Pierce comparisons. That is just ppl repeating what they here on the draft sites. But what I do see in Thaddeus is yet another swingman in this draft with great upside. He showed everyone what he was all about when he outperformed every player in the Jordan Classic including Kevin Durant. Another guy who can play with a mean streak. A no show in the UNLV tournament game but one game where clearly nerves got the best of him, I certainly will not hold against him.

These guys are just the top of my head.

I know there are more talented guys in this draft.

Saying this is one of the deepest drafts isn't just falling in love with superlatives. There really are a ton of guys with tremendous upside. Not average/decent starter upside. But as in above average to elite upide.

Next year's draft will be loaded as well especially at the guard position.

This one is dominated by the frountcourt.

These next two drafts will raise the overall talent of the league and hopefully help shift the power.

Diesel · May 19, 2007

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1)Oden- Potential to be one of the All-Time Greats

In order to be an all time great, you have to have an offensive game. I think that right now, if Oden doesn't work on his offense the right way, he will be another Emeka Okafor. You just don't come up into this level and dominate without real offensive moves. Sure, he has the whole League drooling with his potential, but so does every skilled big man. However, notice that the failure rate for big men to become all time greats is very high.

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2)Durant- Undeniable Superstar potential

Very true. He has the total package offensively. However, he needs strength to make it work. Most pro coaches is going to go for his Rasheed Wallace imitation. Not with the amount of skills he has. So he's going to have to get stronger so that he can play inside as well as outside.

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3)Hibbert- Potential to be the next big Georgetown big defensively. Held his own against Oden in head to head play

Whoah Nellie. I love his footwork for a guy his size, but I am concerned about his rebounds. I believe Jerome Williams had more rpg than he and JYD was nowhere near 7 feet. Right now, it's too much about one of my favorite Centers that says Stanley Roberts than says Patrick Ewing. He may slide if he works out.

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4)Noah- Potential to be a 7 foot AK47. Very underrated as an athlete. He can run the floor like a deer. Plays the game with a mean streak and a very underrated defender.

The only problem with Noah is his desire. I think he has all the physical tools to be a great PF in this league and at some point even a great Center. But right now, he reminds me a lot of a guy named Rony Sikley. I have to admit I was a Sikley fan but Sikley never had the desire to live up to his potential. He had a Laettner like existence. I would have said Laettner, but I can see Noah blocking about 2.4 shots per game and grabbing about 8 rebounds per game.

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5)Yi Jianlian- Speaking of athletic 7 footers. Might instantly be the most fleet footed 7 footer in the league. Takes his man off the dribble and finishes like a 6'8 swingman.

All I know is what I have seen on highlights. I don't get the memo when YJL plays on nBATV. So I can't really talk as well about General Yi as I can about other players.

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6)Julian Wright- Another very athletic swingman. I hate him with a passion but he's got tremendous upside. He especially impressed me against UF

This guy is one of my favorites. NO lie. I think he's being majorly disrespected right now. You're right about him, he's got upside, but aside from that, he has skill already. A player have skill already is like a bad word? This guy has the ability to go to a bad team and make them much better. I say Better than Pierce.

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7)Corey Brewer- Speaking of UF, I watched this guy grow up from when he first got PT as a Freshman. You want to talk about upside, Brewer is your guy. He's got Bruce Bowen potential on D, but the ability to elevate with the best of them on the otehr end. Like Josh Smith, he still needs to work on his dribbling and perimeter shooting, but because of that athleticism, the upside is tremendous.

Agreed.

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8)Mike Conley Jr- Many will point to the fact that he had Greg Oden on the team. I'll point to the games when they had an even more efficient offense without Oden when they pushed the ball up the court and Conley Jr, mature beyond his years had very impressive Assist/turnover ratios. He turned the ball an impressingly low amount of times for a Freshman. Add those Conley Sr genes into the equation and I don't doubt his ability to be the next big time rookie PG at all.

This is the start of tbe BS. I watched Conley and he's good but he's the equivalent of Brevin Knight. He's too small to be very effective. Plus, he has to tighten up his outside shooting or else, all he will be is a distributor and one that's not as good as Brevin Knight. Don't think that because I say Brevin that I'm trying to insult him. Brevin was one of the best college PGs to play the game. He ranked right up there behind Isiah and all them. But there was a problem in translation going from the college game to the pro game. Conley Jr. would be smart to stay away from workouts. If he goes head to head with guys like Law and hungry guys like Aaron Brooks, it could spell a great fall.

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9)Jarvaris Crittenton- Speaking of PGs, one with just as much upside as all these other highly regarded prospects is Jarvaris Crittenton. With his 6'5 frame and speed and overall athleticism, Crittenton could be the next Baron Davis.

His potential got him in the house. However, if he works out, he will be tested. He didn't look so good against UNLV. He's a rookie that's expected. BUT, other than Atlanta, how many pro teams are going to draft a PG high to wait on his development. It's like Livingston all over again.

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10)Acie Law- One of the most underrated players in the draft. Everyone overlooks a guy who helped revive a Texas A and M basketball program that was absolutely pathetic. Despite being the focal point by opposing defenses, Law still managed to be one of the most efficient PGs in the nation. He was also regarded as one of the most clutch players in the nation. Usually when the ball was in his hands at the end of the game, he was money a la Chauncey Billups. He's got both the physical and mental tools of a Billups.

Agreed.

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11)Thaddeus Young- I diagree with the Paul Pierce comparisons. That is just ppl repeating what they here on the draft sites. But what I do see in Thaddeus is yet another swingman in this draft with great upside. He showed everyone what he was all about when he outperformed every player in the Jordan Classic including Kevin Durant. Another guy who can play with a mean streak. A no show in the UNLV tournament game but one game where clearly nerves got the best of him, I certainly will not hold against him.

Consistency. ONly BK will burn a high pick for a guy like Young. In young I see a smaller version of Smoove. I guess a young Smoove. Inconsistent but capable of busting out every once and a while. The problem is that he doesn't have a developed midrange shot or 3 pt shoot... just like Young Smoove. The other problem is that he's not really that strong... unlike young Smoove. That means that Marvin is a better Sf than him. However, I love Young's speed and athleticism. He's like a poor man's Brewer who's left handed. He needs to develop a shot. You would think that's easy to do, but it's one of the hardest things for a pro to do. That's why I think Young should have stayed in school.

TheNorthCydeRises · May 19, 2007

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Coach, I agree with the essence of what you're saying... Becuase it's true.. but there's one thing you're really missing...

THE HYPE MACHINE...

The Hype Machine was hard at work in the 2005 draft... Marvin and Bogut had the benefit of being two of the most hyped players in the history of the draft.

The hype machine said that Marvin was the next James Worthy and that Bogut was better than Bill Walton. The Hype machine had people believing that Bogut bested Tim Duncan in the Olympics??

And Bogut helped out his own cause by talking tough... People thought that John Wayne had put on basketball shoes...

But Marvin takes the cake. What did he do to deserve so much hype?? Nothing. Coming off the bench and being the right size propelled Marvin into the place where he was.

The prognosticators (especially fans) tend to float to what they can't see and don't know more than what they can see and do.

Chris Paul and Deron were the best prospects coming out of that draft, but the hype machine made Paul look too fragile for the game and made Deron seem too fat. It seems like they were running around calling him fatboy.

So, I think the Hypemachine would have eventually chipped away everybody but Oden and Durant. Although Conley Jr. is getting the hypemachine ride this year. He'd probably be picked 5th.

There's definitely something to that Diesel. ESPN has way too much power these days, over who becomes a star, and who they WANT to become a star.

We've seen it in other spots, especially with young talent.

- LeBron ( who they were right on )

- Michelle Wie ( who we haven't heard anything from in about a year. Maybe she'll concentrate on actually beating other women to get that fire to win, instead of just settling to make the cut on the men's tour )

- Freddy Adu ( the supposed savior of American soccer even at 14. Adu may be an average player at best on the MLS circut. )

- Sebastain Telfair ( next to LeBron, he probably got the most hype coming out of high school. )

- Maria Sharapova ( since she beat Serena at Wimbeldon 3 years ago, I don't think she's even won another major, even though most of the top women tennis players have been hurt off and on for the past 3 years )

But the NBA is definitely guilty for hyping up and even tearing down certain players. It's my hope that some of these teams will actually BELIEVE THE HYPE, and pass on Law in the top 10. But if you go by who are the best 10 players in this draft, Law is definitely in the top 10.

BusBoyIsBack · May 20, 2007