Childress needs to hit the road

[exodus]

I see a lot of people who are getting fooled by Childress' high shooting percentage. They think that makes him a good offensive player. It doesn't. You have to consider the effect he has on the other players. Childress can't create at all and kills spacing. That is why...

JJ shoots 4.5% worse when Childress is playing.

Smith shoots 3.1% worse when Childress is playing.

Marvin shoots 2.6% worse when Childress is playing.

AJ shot 2.9% worse when Childress was playing.

Lue shot 3.6% worse when Childress was playing.

http://82games.com/0708/0708ATLP.HTM

Is the pattern clear enough?

When you couple that with the fact that the Hawks give up 5.6 ppg more when Childress is playing (worst mark among the regulars)

http://www.82games.com/0708/07ATL8D.HTM

it becomes clear that Childress just isn't worth keeping.

[Dexmethylphenidate]

Childress' a keeper... but he doesn't deserve the kind of minutes he's getting. I'd say 20 mins/game for him tops.

[leftwich]

Yeah, let's get rid of Childress and get another stagnant player that can fall asleep on the wing opposite of Marvin.

Seriously, Childress averages something like 1.57 points/shot. Let's keep the one guy on the team who understands moving without the ball (since it takes a Stanford education). He's a step in the right direction, which is moving away from 1 on 1 Woody ball.

I don't put too much weight in those situational stats. Childress plays with the bench more than the starters have to (except maybe JJ), and I think that alters any kind of stat like that.

[Guest Walter]

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I don't put too much weight in those situational stats. Childress plays with the bench more than the starters have to (except maybe JJ), and I think that alters any kind of stat like that.

I lean towards this as well.

W

[thefloydian]

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I see a lot of people who are getting fooled by Childress' high shooting percentage. They think that makes him a good offensive player. It doesn't. You have to consider the effect he has on the other players. Childress can't create at all and kills spacing. That is why...

JJ shoots 4.5% worse when Childress is playing.

Smith shoots 3.1% worse when Childress is playing.

Marvin shoots 2.6% worse when Childress is playing.

AJ shot 2.9% worse when Childress was playing.

Lue shot 3.6% worse when Childress was playing.

http://82games.com/0708/0708ATLP.HTM

Is the pattern clear enough?

When you couple that with the fact that the Hawks give up 5.6 ppg more when Childress is playing (worst mark among the regulars)

http://www.82games.com/0708/07ATL8D.HTM

it becomes clear that Childress just isn't worth keeping.

Those stats are pretty much meaningless. There's too many variables unaccounted for to quantify someone's impact on a team in that way.

I hope they keep Childless.

[Guest]

Your argument would be a lot better if you showed that when Childress was in the game, the whole team performed inefficiently. Like showing with Childress in, our team shoots a lower %, scores less points per shots, higher turnover rate...

What you are doing are showing that with Childress in, other people shoot a lower percentage. Thats all fine and dandy if you want to show that he hurts your fantasy team, but basketball is played as a team and not a summation of player stats.

[Guest]

Stats aren't meaningless, you just need to know how to interpret them.

[hawkman]

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I see a lot of people who are getting fooled by Childress' high shooting percentage. They think that makes him a good offensive player. It doesn't. You have to consider the effect he has on the other players. Childress can't create at all and kills spacing. That is why...

JJ shoots 4.5% worse when Childress is playing.

Smith shoots 3.1% worse when Childress is playing.

Marvin shoots 2.6% worse when Childress is playing.

AJ shot 2.9% worse when Childress was playing.

Lue shot 3.6% worse when Childress was playing.

http://82games.com/0708/0708ATLP.HTM

Is the pattern clear enough?

When you couple that with the fact that the Hawks give up 5.6 ppg more when Childress is playing (worst mark among the regulars)

http://www.82games.com/0708/07ATL8D.HTM

it becomes clear that Childress just isn't worth keeping.

You again with the Childress bashing? Is this the only dirt you could find on the guy? Jeez, this is pathetic. Leftwich was right on the money when he said those stats were meaningless. You can either believe a stat sheet or believe what you see during the games. I think I'll stick with the games. Besides, what the heck does the rest of the team's shooting percentage have to do with his play? Chillz doesn't need the ball to do what he does out there, so it's not like he could or should affect the rest of the team's offense in any way. If the rest of the team shoots worse when Chillz is out there it's their own fault. I mean, it's not like Childress is playing defense against any of these guys or something.

[AHF]

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I see a lot of people who are getting fooled by Childress' high shooting percentage. They think that makes him a good offensive player. It doesn't. You have to consider the effect he has on the other players. Childress can't create at all and kills spacing. That is why...

JJ shoots 4.5% worse when Childress is playing.

Smith shoots 3.1% worse when Childress is playing.

Marvin shoots 2.6% worse when Childress is playing.

AJ shot 2.9% worse when Childress was playing.

Lue shot 3.6% worse when Childress was playing.

http://82games.com/0708/0708ATLP.HTM

Is the pattern clear enough?

When you couple that with the fact that the Hawks give up 5.6 ppg more when Childress is playing (worst mark among the regulars)

http://www.82games.com/0708/07ATL8D.HTM

it becomes clear that Childress just isn't worth keeping.

You again with the Childress bashing? Is this the only dirt you could find on the guy? Jeez, this is pathetic. Leftwich was right on the money when he said those stats were meaningless. You can either believe a stat sheet or believe what you see during the games. I think I'll stick with the games. Besides, what the heck does the rest of the team's shooting percentage have to do with his play? Chillz doesn't need the ball to do what he does out there, so it's not like he could or should affect the rest of the team's offense in any way. If the rest of the team shoots worse when Chillz is out there it's their own fault. I mean, it's not like Childress is playing defense against any of these guys or something.

If someone is spreading the floor and gets replaced by someone who can't space the floor, it certainly impacts the play of their teammates. These numbers are troubling in that regard and do support (but not prove) ex's theory that Childress's inability to spread the floor hurts his jumpshooting teammates.

[Plainview1981]

That foolish site has already been exposed. Any site that has a formula that says one of the best SG's in the league has no effect on a game makes it a pretty useless site. Period. But I'm not going to do defend any of the players on this team. I'm just tired of hearing about 82games.com because it's a garbage site.

[leftwich]

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I see a lot of people who are getting fooled by Childress' high shooting percentage. They think that makes him a good offensive player. It doesn't. You have to consider the effect he has on the other players. Childress can't create at all and kills spacing. That is why...

JJ shoots 4.5% worse when Childress is playing.

Smith shoots 3.1% worse when Childress is playing.

Marvin shoots 2.6% worse when Childress is playing.

AJ shot 2.9% worse when Childress was playing.

Lue shot 3.6% worse when Childress was playing.

http://82games.com/0708/0708ATLP.HTM

Is the pattern clear enough?

When you couple that with the fact that the Hawks give up 5.6 ppg more when Childress is playing (worst mark among the regulars)

http://www.82games.com/0708/07ATL8D.HTM

it becomes clear that Childress just isn't worth keeping.

You again with the Childress bashing? Is this the only dirt you could find on the guy? Jeez, this is pathetic. Leftwich was right on the money when he said those stats were meaningless. You can either believe a stat sheet or believe what you see during the games. I think I'll stick with the games. Besides, what the heck does the rest of the team's shooting percentage have to do with his play? Chillz doesn't need the ball to do what he does out there, so it's not like he could or should affect the rest of the team's offense in any way. If the rest of the team shoots worse when Chillz is out there it's their own fault. I mean, it's not like Childress is playing defense against any of these guys or something.

If someone is spreading the floor and gets replaced by someone who can't space the floor, it certainly impacts the play of their teammates. These numbers are troubling in that regard and do support (but not prove) ex's theory that Childress's inability to spread the floor hurts his jumpshooting teammates.

But if Childress is on the floor with a guy like Solomon who doesn't have a clue, Childress will get just as much "credit" for any offensive disruptions that Solomon causes. Childress plays more minutes with the second unit, so these numbers can be at least partially explained by that. Also, there's no way I'm buying that Childress affects the FG%'s of AJ or T Lue. Neither of these guys ever looked to shoot in the spaces occupied by Childress.

[Diesel]

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I see a lot of people who are getting fooled by Childress' high shooting percentage. They think that makes him a good offensive player. It doesn't. You have to consider the effect he has on the other players. Childress can't create at all and kills spacing. That is why...

JJ shoots 4.5% worse when Childress is playing.

Smith shoots 3.1% worse when Childress is playing.

Marvin shoots 2.6% worse when Childress is playing.

AJ shot 2.9% worse when Childress was playing.

Lue shot 3.6% worse when Childress was playing.

http://82games.com/0708/0708ATLP.HTM

Is the pattern clear enough?

When you couple that with the fact that the Hawks give up 5.6 ppg more when Childress is playing (worst mark among the regulars)

http://www.82games.com/0708/07ATL8D.HTM

it becomes clear that Childress just isn't worth keeping.

Let's see... Childress comes in... Marvin goes out.

Soon after Smoove goes out.

Soon after, Vlade exchanges places with Horf.

Soon after Salim exchanges spots with Bibby.

Since Childress is the captain of the second team... guess what.. If JJ is still out there, he's playing with the second team also.

Just looking on 82 games..

KG would do better with Tony Allen than Ray Allen.

Maybe Boston should trade him!!

[exodus]

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That foolish site has already been exposed. Any site that has a formula that says one of the best SG's in the league has no effect on a game makes it a pretty useless site. Period. But I'm not going to do defend any of the players on this team. I'm just tired of hearing about 82games.com because it's a garbage site.

Houston is +217 with McGrady on the court, which is 3rd on the team.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/lenovo/lenov...=9&team=Rockets

The Hawks are -170 with Childress on the court which is the worst mark on the team.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/lenovo/lenov...it=9&team=Hawks

[exodus]

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Yeah, let's get rid of Childress and get another stagnant player that can fall asleep on the wing opposite of Marvin.

Seriously, Childress averages something like 1.57 points/shot. Let's keep the one guy on the team who understands moving without the ball (since it takes a Stanford education). He's a step in the right direction, which is moving away from 1 on 1 Woody ball.

I don't put too much weight in those situational stats. Childress plays with the bench more than the starters have to (except maybe JJ), and I think that alters any kind of stat like that.

Childress is the first guy off the bench and also plays in crunch time. he plays 30 minutes per game.

If being a bench player makes a difference then show me another bench player that has a consistent negative effect on the guys playing the most minutes.

[exodus]

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KG would do better with Tony Allen than Ray Allen.

KG shot 54.8% with Tony and 53.7 with Ray, a difference of 1.1%.

KG was +12.4 per game with Ray and +12.1 per game with Tony.

and you are trying to compare that with Childress? Given your understanding of math i guess i can see why you think there is a similarity. But in reality there isn't.

Childress has a noticable negative effect on several players.

Pierce shoots 1.9% better with Ray than with Tony.

Try again.

[TroyMcClure]

Thanks for the numbers.

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Childress can't create at all and kills spacing.

This is what many don't understand and simply avoid. Ex has provided statistical evidence to support what we already know. Chillz is a negative, no matter how you paint it.

[frosgrim]

The data is troubling, but I can't take any offensive statistics with this too seriously until we get a coach who actually runs an offense.

Yes, Childress doesn't spread the floor nearly as well as Marvin does (and that is saying something), but Childress is a smart player.

I think some sort of rubric works well for looking at players. Something like the following, though I am sure this needs tweaking:

A) Does Childress provide the production that is needed for the price that it will cost to retain him? If YES, then retain; If NO, then trade; If MAYBE, explore trades for more critical pieces.

B) Can the Hawks receive an equally valuable piece if Childress is moved in an S-n-T? If YES, then trade; If NO, then keep; if MAYBE, explore other options

C) For the same price, say ~$6 mil a year, can the Hawks acquire two players that provide similar production? If YES, then trade; If NO, retain; If MAYBE, explore other options

D) Can a trade of Childress return a mid-level or better draft pick? If YES, then trade; If NO, retain; If MAYBE, keep working on the trade.

I think if you use this sort of deduction works with any player. Following it, you will build a very good team. Most of those questions are dependent upon what you already have on the team, so you have to do some serious modeling to get the "right" answer.

For me, I have no problem moving anyone on the team if it returns a center (w/ the possible exception of Horford and possibly Bibby). The problem is, who has such a player and would be willing to give him up?

[Diesel]

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Thanks for the numbers.

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Childress can't create at all and kills spacing.

This is what many don't understand and simply avoid. Ex has provided statistical evidence to support what we already know. Chillz is a negative, no matter how you paint it.

IF Chillz was a starter and played primarily with the starting team, this may be a factor.

However, Chillz comes off the bench and he plays differently than our other Sf. These are the two things that Ex misses in his statistical view. Also lost in the statistical view is that fact that CHillz is the most efficient player on the team. Probably one of the most efficent in the league. He's scoring 12.2 ppg while shooting 58.5% for the season. That's crazy. That means that there's no wasted shots. He gets these points from working the baseline. Our other Sf is a stationary target. He doesn't move until after he gets the ball. While that may be better for JJ knowing where Marvin will be at all times, it does nothing to help the offense. Our offense has those times when it goes stagnant. That's because everybody is standing around watching JJ.

I'm sorry, but I would rather keep a player who is moving on offense and making smart choices with the ball than to just have a team full of people just standing around waiting on the ball.

[exodus]

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Also lost in the statistical view is that fact that CHillz is the most efficient player on the team. Probably one of the most efficent in the league. He's scoring 12.2 ppg while shooting 58.5% for the season. That's crazy.

The problem is that it comes at the expense of defense. 75% of his points from the field come in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. Instead of staying back, playing D and helping get defensive rebounds Childress is leaking out.

And his putbacks on offense look fine when he gets them. But what about all the other times when he is hanging around the rim and the other team gets the rebound? He will be trailing the play defensively. Transition defense is Greek to Childress.

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However, Chillz comes off the bench and he plays differently than our other Sf. These are the two things that Ex misses in his statistical view.

Childress plays differently from every SF in the league. That is the problem.

Show me one SF in the league who comes off the bench and has the consistently negative effect on other players that Childress does.

[Diesel]

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Also lost in the statistical view is that fact that CHillz is the most efficient player on the team. Probably one of the most efficent in the league. He's scoring 12.2 ppg while shooting 58.5% for the season. That's crazy.

The problem is that it comes at the expense of defense. 75% of his points from the field come in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. Instead of staying back, playing D and helping get defensive rebounds Childress is leaking out.

And his putbacks on offense look fine when he gets them. But what about all the other times when he is hanging around the rim and the other team gets the rebound? He will be trailing the play defensively. Transition defense is Greek to Childress.

Defense is still a team activity. Especially when we play a Zone defense. If JJ is just going to let his man by and if Smoove is going to play off his man to try to go for blocked shots... Don't blame Chillz??

Do you know why often times you see Chillz running at a wide open shooter? It because usually it's in somebody else's zone but becuase of our messed up rotations they are left wide open.

You act as though our defense is really good at any time???

Normally, teams make adjustments that began working while Marvin is still on the floor!!

Boston exploited us at the beginning of the 2nd Half with a quick run. Marvin was on the floor.

GS explotied us at the beginning of the 2nd Half with a quick run. Marvin was on the floor.

N.O. went unstopped most of the game. Marvin was on the floor?

Yet you would have people believe that Chillz comes in and our defense goes to crap??

YEAH RIGHT Agenda man.