Marvin Williams Bust or Not

[gt4403]

I want to start out by saying I have been a Hawks fan for over 25 years. I have been reading this site for a while but not posting. I just wanted to add one man's opinion on Marvin as a bust or not. First off, when this particular draft happened, I didn't want Marvin but I didn't want Paul either. I thought he was too small to defend his position in the pros and saw too many of his games in college where I thought he was outplayed by Jack, etc.. I actually wanted Deron Williams. I do remember the majority of the media saying Marvin should either be the first or second pick.

On to the Marvin debate, I know there are alot of people who would like to trade him to just about anyone willing to take him but I want to bring up a couple of points I feel are important. He is 21 years old and despite what has been said, he has got better every year. This year alone compared to last year. His points went up, his field goal percentage went up, his free throw percentage went up, his steals went up, his turnovers went down, and his rebounds went up. He pretty much improved in every area. Is he Paul, no, that kid is special, but Marvin is no slouch and he will get better. I do believe he will be an all star some day but not a perennial one. He will put up good numbers be borderline and then make it a couple of times. You redo that draft he is is still a top 5 pick so he is definitely not a bust. I am interested in what people really think of him not what they think compared to Paul. I intend on contributing more often and respect all your opinions.

[NJHAWK]

He isnt even close to a bust. Shelden was a bust. Marvin Williams is a very nice young player who still has the potential to be an all star. Now will he ever be what Paul and Deron are already? very doubtful.

[jhay610]

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I am interested in what people really think of him not what they think compared to Paul.

You will come to find that the vast majority of HS is incapable of making this separation; rendering a logical, informed and rational evaluation of him impossible.

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and respect all your opinions.

We'll see how long that lasts.

[Murat]

Marvin is NOT a bust! He still has potential to be a great player. Look at David West now, he didn't really show much promise earlier in his career. Also Carlos Boozer, Okur and bunch of others. We just need a pg to play with him.

[AHF]

Aside from comparisons to Paul and Deron, he is still a bust as a #2 overall selection. As a player who had no control over where he was drafted, he is not a bust. He is a young SF who is borderline starter quality but not close to an impact player at this early stage in his career.

[gt4403]

You say he is a bust as a #2. I don't agree with that historically there have been many players drafted #2 that haven't done as well as him in there first few years. When you say bust, that insinuates a clear miss which he wasn't. Should he have been two, probably not, but three, four, or five aren't out of the question. I mean lets be honest he isn't Tim Thomas or Sam Bowie yet. So no he isn't a bust at two either. I don't beleive if you look back, you will ever find a year where the draft order exactly followed their career production and worth. Many a good player ended up playing a little ahead or behind there draft position but that didn't make them a bust. He may never be the second best player but I don't believe he is a bust just because we wilsh we had Paul which I beleive is the main reason people label him that now. One player's excellence has somehow made another look worse than he is.

[thescout5]

Title of thread should be will Marvin be a clutch player? I say no he doesn't have that killer instinct but to answer the question he isn't a bust but should be alot better for the no2 pick.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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Title of thread should be will Marvin be a clutch player? I say no he doesn't have that killer instinct but to answer the question he isn't a bust but should be alot better for the no2 pick.

Actual top 10 picks of the 2005 Draft:

Bogut

M. Williams

D. Williams

Paul

Felton

Webster

Villaneuva

Frye

Digou

Bynum

3rd year view of this class:

Bogut ( solid starter )

M. Williams ( solid starter )

D. Williams ( all-star )

Paul ( superstar )

Felton ( solid starter )

Webster ( inconsistent bench player )

Villaneuva ( inconsistent starter/bench player )

Frye ( solid bench player, but in a bad situation to get more PT )

Digou ( borderline bust/inconsitent bench player )

Bynum ( solid starter before injury )

New top 10 of how this overall draft class performed in the 3-year period:

1) Paul - superstar/MVP caliber player. Possibly a top 5 all-time PG before his career is over.

2) D. Williams - looking like a perennial all-star, with potential to reach superstar status, but may always be 2nd fiddle behind Paul if he stays in the West.

3) Monta Ellis - rapidly improved when he became a starter, who may reach all-star consideration status in a year or two. The fastest player in the league that is a very good penetrator and mid-range shooter.

4) Danny Granger - benefitted from trades, change in tempo, and O'Neal injury to see him develop into a very good starter at SF. Development of 3-point shot has helped him be more potent offensvely.

5) Bogut - solid starter that is steadily improving. May be one of the best big men in the NBA in a few years if he gets stronger around the rim.

6) M. Williams - versatile forward that is steadily improving as a starter. Only needs to develop the 3-point shot, or become a better slasher to add to his very good mid-range game, to really break out as an offensive player.

7) Felton - a decent PG that keeps improving each year, although leadership abilities have been questioned. Will improve even more if he shoots less 3-pointers and drive more, because he's not a good perimeter shooter.

8) Andrew Bynum - had a lackluster first 2 years in the league, but looked very good for 2 months this year. So good, that you have to move him into the top 10. Hopefully knee injury won't set his development back next year.

9) David Lee - a scrappy forward that is good enough to be a great bench player or decent starting forward.

10) Villaneuva - a decent scoring forward that plays very little defense, but will always see time because of his offensive capabilities.

When you look at the current top 10, you're looking at 10 players who will be in the league for the next 7 - 12 years, barring a major injury. And all of these guys, with maybe the exception of Lee and Villaneuva, are improving enough to be star caliber players in a few years.

[dlpin]

The whole "bust" discussion is always a tough one, and more often than not, I think it is a very unfair label. Unfortunately, players often are called busts not because of what they did, but because of what others who were picked behind him did.

Just look at the "ultimate" bust, Sam Bowie. There is not a draft when he is not mentioned as a bust. But when you look at his career, he was a solid started for most of it. Unfortunately for him, MJ, Barkley and Stockton were picked after him. Meanwhile, Pervis Ellison was a #1 pick that did much less, but was fortunate enough that no hall of famers were picked after him.

[Diesel]

This is the truth.

All of this talk about Marvin and potential is useless. Unless there is some surge of Desire, Marvin is what he is and he will probably not get any better.

Therefore, Marvin is a slightly above average SF.

Now, why do I feel his potential talk is useless?

A lot of time when you talk about potential, you're talking about somebody who has to play in the system in order to develop. Potential is not age related, potential is playing time related.

Well for the past 3 years, we have done everything possible to give Marvin playing time to work through his potential.

Now, let me dispel some of the misjudgement that is coming.

Marvin can develop like JO did.

Marvin first three years avg 30.9 mpg

JO first three years avg 10.9 mpg.

Marvin can develop like Chauncey Billups did.

Marvin First three years avg 30.9

Chaucey first three years avg 28.1

BUT

Chauncey played for three different teams and 4 different coaches in his first three years.

AND

Chauncey plays PG which is a much harder position to master than Sf.

Marvin can develop like JJ

Come on, JJ lacked playing time that Marvin recieves, JJ was traded to Phoenix. However, with all of that, by his third year, JJ was making a difference on the floor.

The point is that you can't find potential that has played as much as Marvin has played. He is what he is. Unless he finds some great amount of desire and changes his personality, what we got in Marvin today is what we will have.

Now when you declare a player a bust there have to be something relative to do that. I think the original meaning comes out of gold mining when they talked about Boom or Bust towns. And the relativeness was weather or not there was gold in those towns. Gold represented the only thing of value and the major substance that the miners were persuing.

Well, let me ask you. Are we getting Gold from Marvin? Is he showing that he's valuable to this team? Could we plug in another player who plays Sf and get the same or better results?

I think when you have answered those questions, you determine what Marvin Williams value is to the Hawks.

[DrReality]

To give him the benefit of the doubt the jury is still out on him. But one thing we haven't seen from him that we did from Smoove is for him to come back from the off season showing substantial improvement. Smoove went and added muscle and bulk, went to Houston to work on his game. Don't think we've seen that from MW and it needs to happen. He's got to work on the holes in his game . . . . and if he did that would make me feel a lot better about him.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

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To give him the benefit of the doubt the jury is still out on him. But one thing we haven't seen from him that we did from Smoove is for him to come back from the off season showing substantial improvement. Smoove went and added muscle and bulk, went to Houston to work on his game. Don't think we've seen that from MW and it needs to happen. He's got to work on the holes in his game . . . . and if he did that would make me feel a lot better about him.

Really?

You had people on this board back before Christmas wishing that Woody would call more plays for Marvin, because the kid was shooting the ball so well in November and December. He was easily our most consitent offensive player back then.

Almost everybody, except the ususual Marvin haters thought the kid had all but turned the corner, and poised to have a Deng-like season. Ish . . he shot 50% FG in those 2 months and was good for double figure points just about each night, averaging 17 ppg.

Those nagging injuries set him back a little in February, but he picked it right back up in March and April. But with Bibby in the mix, both he and Smoove got better looks, but a little less touches in the offense because Bibby was shooting more than they were on some nights.

[thesheedera]

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I want to start out by saying I have been a Hawks fan for over 25 years. I have been reading this site for a while but not posting. I just wanted to add one man's opinion on Marvin as a bust or not. First off, when this particular draft happened, I didn't want Marvin but I didn't want Paul either. I thought he was too small to defend his position in the pros and saw too many of his games in college where I thought he was outplayed by Jack, etc.. I actually wanted Deron Williams. I do remember the majority of the media saying Marvin should either be the first or second pick.

On to the Marvin debate, I know there are alot of people who would like to trade him to just about anyone willing to take him but I want to bring up a couple of points I feel are important. He is 21 years old and despite what has been said, he has got better every year. This year alone compared to last year. His points went up, his field goal percentage went up, his free throw percentage went up, his steals went up, his turnovers went down, and his rebounds went up. He pretty much improved in every area. Is he Paul, no, that kid is special, but Marvin is no slouch and he will get better. I do believe he will be an all star some day but not a perennial one. He will put up good numbers be borderline and then make it a couple of times. You redo that draft he is is still a top 5 pick so he is definitely not a bust. I am interested in what people really think of him not what they think compared to Paul. I intend on contributing more often and respect all your opinions.

Bust - no

Disappointment - so far, yes

Compared to Paul and Deron - just plain silly how far off most were on both of those guys, kudos to anyone who truly saw this coming. Paul, Deron and Felton were neck and neck and neck, and Felton has performed about to the level I think most would have reasonably expected of all three by now. Deron has been sensational and Paul has been otherworldly.

Compared to Bogut - seems about right that Bogut was taken over him by a slight margin, separated almost entirely by position. I'm not sure if I would trade Marvin to get Bogut today.

Compared to other #2 picks - he's worse than most #2s, but he's better than several, and about the same as several as well.

We f-ed up the pick BIG time in hindsight because the Paul and Deron picks are so obvious now. Had Paul and Deron developed at the same rate as Felton, in a situation as difficult as Felton's (miserable franchise, forced to play out of position along with Brevin for too long) has been, we wouldn't be having this discussion. We'd be wondering if we still need to go get a PG of the future.

Marvin looked awesome at the beginning of the season, but after that he was extremely inconsistent and the season on the whole is a bit disturbing for me as a Marvin fan.

He's gotta come back on a serious mission next season, otherwise I'll get in the camp that both the Hawks AND Marvin would be better off by moving him elsewhere.

[AHF]

Interesting idea.

My redo of the top 10 that assumes NBA GMs could redo this draft would be:

1) Paul - superstar/MVP caliber player. Possibly a top 5 all-time PG before his career is over.

2) D. Williams - looking like a perennial all-star, with potential to reach superstar status, but may always be 2nd fiddle behind Paul if he stays in the West.

3) Monta Ellis - rapidly improved when he became a starter, who may reach all-star consideration status in a year or two. The fastest player in the league that is a very good penetrator and mid-range shooter.

4) Andrew Bynum - had a lackluster first 2 years in the league as a big man straight out of high school, but looked like an emerging franchise big man before his injury. He would go before Ellis on some boards..

5) Bogut - solid starter that is steadily improving. May be one of the best big men in the NBA in a few years if he gets stronger around the rim. Position scarcity elevates him above Granger.

6) Danny Granger - benefitted from trades, change in tempo, and O'Neal injury to see him develop into a very good starter at SF. Development of 3-point shot has helped him be more potent offensvely.

7) M. Williams - versatile forward that is steadily improving as a starter. Needs to develop the 3-point shot, or become a better slasher to add to his very good mid-range game, to really break out as an offensive player. Needs to be more aggressive. Due to age and upside he gets the edge over Felton but goes behind Felton to most teams needing a PG.

8) Felton - a decent PG that keeps improving each year, although leadership abilities have been questioned. Will improve even more if he shoots less 3-pointers and drive more, because he's not a good perimeter shooter.

9) David Lee - a scrappy forward that is good enough to be a great bench player or decent starting forward.

10) Villaneuva - a decent scoring forward that plays very little defense, but will always see time because of his offensive capabilities.

[Diesel]

I would put both Felton and Lee ahead of Marvin. Charlie V. is a wash.

[Diesel]

Ohhhh...

The Phantom Injury.

Sorry Northcyde... I watched just about every Hawks game this season. I didn't see any nagging Injury to Marvin. What I did see was a streaky shooter who lacked the desire to do anymore than he was doing.

Put Rudy Gay in Marvin's place. Gay would drive and dunk just about every play he touched the ball. That's because his personality is one of a go getter. Marvin HISTORICALLY has not been a go getter.

He's a guy that says if it comes to me... good, if not... that's OK too. You see that from stories of him letting others finish off games. You see that in his HS team having a losing record. You see that in him being content sitting on the bench at UNC.

If I believed in it, i would say that he was a classic case of type B personality. Whereas most successful pros (iF I believed in it) were type A.

[pimp]

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Interesting idea.

My redo of the top 10 that assumes NBA GMs could redo this draft would be:

1) Paul - superstar/MVP caliber player. Possibly a top 5 all-time PG before his career is over.

2) D. Williams - looking like a perennial all-star, with potential to reach superstar status, but may always be 2nd fiddle behind Paul if he stays in the West.

3) Monta Ellis - rapidly improved when he became a starter, who may reach all-star consideration status in a year or two. The fastest player in the league that is a very good penetrator and mid-range shooter.

4) Andrew Bynum - had a lackluster first 2 years in the league

as a big man straight out of high school

, but looked

like an emerging franchise big man before his injury. He would go before Ellis on some boards.

.

5) Bogut - solid starter that is steadily improving. May be one of the best big men in the NBA in a few years if he gets stronger around the rim.

Position scarcity elevates him above Granger.

6) Danny Granger - benefitted from trades, change in tempo, and O'Neal injury to see him develop into a very good starter at SF. Development of 3-point shot has helped him be more potent offensvely.

7) M. Williams - versatile forward that is steadily improving as a starter. Needs to develop the 3-point shot, or become a better slasher to add to his very good mid-range game, to really break out as an offensive player. Needs to be more aggressive.

Due to age and upside he gets the edge over Felton but goes behind Felton to most teams needing a PG.

8) Felton - a decent PG that keeps improving each year, although leadership abilities have been questioned. Will improve even more if he shoots less 3-pointers and drive more, because he's not a good perimeter shooter.

9) David Lee - a scrappy forward that is good enough to be a great bench player or decent starting forward.

10) Villaneuva - a decent scoring forward that plays very little defense, but will always see time because of his offensive capabilities.

My list would the same as yours, except i would put Linas Kleiza , Brandon Bass , Louis Williams , and Jason Maxiell ahead of Charlie V

[lifelong]

I wonder if it's time to look past where Marvin was drafted and look at him based on what he is today. He's a decent small forward that is only somewhat overpaid who can hit a mid-range jumper and get to the free throw line. Plus he's under contract for a couple more years, assuming the hawks make him a qualifying offer for the '09 season. Wally World is making like $13 million and Eric Snow is making more than Marvin for doing nothing. Brian Cardinal is also making more than him. Marvin is making about the same as Marco Jaric, and I'd definitely rather have Marvin at that price.

[Packfill]

He is a bust only in terms of draft position and who the Hawks passed up to take him. He is a decent enough player but so far has not been a difference maker, and that is what you want from a #2 pick.

[ATLBob]

Haha, you've touched on one of the board's classic debate topics. I didn't see the terms "Marvin-hater" or "Marvin-lover" yet, though, so this thread seems pretty tame compared to most.

Practically everyone has their own theories on why Marv hasn't lived up to his #2 overall selection. Some think the kid has no heart. Some think his skill-set has been vastly overrated. Others say he's still too young to evaluate.

While the players selected at #3 & #4 are clearly superior performers, it's a bit ridiculous to call Marv a bust.

Personally, I think poor coaching & a lack of strong team leadership have contributed more to Marv's uneven development that any other factors.

While he needs to continue adding polish, his hurdles appear to be mostly mental. Sure, he needs to expand his range and become a consistent three-point threat, but he already possesses (to my eye) the mechanics to be deadly from range. The logical question becomes, then, why doesn't he shoot 3s?

And why doesn't he attack consistently?

Marvin suffers, perhaps more so than most, from the team's lack of a developed offensive philosophy with clearly defined roles. He seems to naturally defer to his teammates, & I don't believe this will change until a coach or team leader steps in and demands that he become a clear and consistent option. He has that ability already, and gets to the line far more frequently than anyone else on the team. Once he has been told that the team requires him to take and make threes, floor space will open up that will make his, and the rest of the team's, drives more effective. Stressing this point to Marvin, and forcing him to become a three-point threat and a more aggressive offensive player should be the number one priority (pertaining to Marvin) of whoever the coaches are this summer.

The Hawks need better ball movement almost every time down the floor, and even if they begin to play at a faster tempo, they must incorporate set plays into their offense if they hope to build on their success. Even a few more called pick & pops this season would have raised Marvin's ppg, and the offense's overall efficiency, quite effectively. Woody loves to harp on how he can't play for his players. but if he can't find a way to force his players to move the ball crisply, more quickly, and more often, then he's doing a lousy job. And I won't even mention the sheer genius evident in his offensive sets ...

For example, wouldn't it be pleasant to see Horford, or Smith, instead of coming out to the high post to receive a pass, set a pick instead, and roll toward the basket.

Marvin's game is far from finished, & you shouldn't let any of these cats convince you that he's a bust, or that he needs to be traded. Thinking, however, that he'll just magically reach his potential is just as naive. He must have better coaching to refine his mindset. Leaders aren't born, they're molded, even when they do much of the molding themselves. Marvin, at least to this point, looks like he won't reach his potential on his own, and thus needs his very own Yoda. Could he be an all-star someday? Yes, but not without some concrete help.