What's the deal with Horford

[NineOhTheRino]

And I'm not talking about stats seeing that his scoring is actually slightly up from last year (from 10 ppg to 11 ppg) but his presence on the floor. We’re almost ¼ through and I can only recall Al having 1 good game. The rest have been okay.

[DrReality]

He tends to disappear at times. Wonder if other teams have figured him out? I think it would help if we designed a play for him in the first quarter to get him involved.

[Plainview1981]

And I'm not talking about stats seeing that his scoring is actually slightly up from last year (from 10 ppg to 11 ppg) but his presence on the floor. We’re almost ¼ through and I can only recall Al having 1 good game. The rest have been okay.

I agree. His numbers suggest a bigger impact than he actually has. The Hawks need a low post scorer and he could possibly be trade bait.

[Diesel]

And I'm not talking about stats seeing that his scoring is actually slightly up from last year (from 10 ppg to 11 ppg) but his presence on the floor. We’re almost ¼ through and I can only recall Al having 1 good game. The rest have been okay.

I don't think you can expect Al to be a take over guy until he develops that shot from the top of the key and from the baseline. I think he plays OK defense.

[Plainview1981]

I don't think you can expect Al to be a take over guy until he develops that shot from the top of the key and from the baseline. I think he plays OK defense.

Maybe we can ditch him in a trade for Boozer or something.

[macdaddy]

And I'm not talking about stats seeing that his scoring is actually slightly up from last year (from 10 ppg to 11 ppg) but his presence on the floor. We’re almost ¼ through and I can only recall Al having 1 good game. The rest have been okay.

Do you mean on offense? Last year it seemed like he was a monster on the boards. I'm thinking part of the problem this year is we are shooting so many long jumpers that getting offensive rebounds is much harder than when we're driving to the basket. Seems like last year JJ drove a lot more, chill was always around the basket and Marvin was shooting more mid range shots. I've got nothing to back it up but that's my theory.

Checked the stats and his offensive rebounding is down from last year but his assists are up. I think we're on pace to attempt about 600 or 700 more 3 pointers this year.

[Admin]

Do you mean on offense? Last year it seemed like he was a monster on the boards. I'm thinking part of the problem this year is we are shooting so many long jumpers that getting offensive rebounds is much harder than when we're driving to the basket. Seems like last year JJ drove a lot more, chill was always around the basket and Marvin was shooting more mid range shots. I've got nothing to back it up but that's my theory.

Checked the stats and his offensive rebounding is down from last year but his assists are up. I think we're on pace to attempt about 600 or 700 more 3 pointers this year.

You might be onto something with the 3pt shooting since that does tend to lead to more long rebounds on misses.

2007 - attempt 13.1 per game which comes out to 1074 over 82 games.

2008 - attempt 21.5 per game which comes out to 1763 over 82 games.

I wonder if it's partly because Zaza is getting more PT this year as well? I'm not sure how many minutes they average per game on the floor together but I do know that I've seen them both on the court at the same time more than once.

Edit - according to this page http://www.82games.com/0809/0809ATL2.HTM Al and Z have been on the floor for at the same time for 140 minutes, although the numbers aren't adding up on that page for me since we've played 1632 regulation minutes in 34 games but the top rotation listed there only shows 340 minutes. So I might be missing something here but at least according to that list our 2nd most common lineup has both Z and Al in there at the same time and we know Z sucks up the offensive boards.

[AHF]

According to 82games, Horfords' offensive rebound rate this season is 27.6%.

Last season it was 30.9% so it appears there is a dip so far this season.

[Guest]

Edit - according to this page http://www.82games.com/0809/0809ATL2.HTM Al and Z have been on the floor for at the same time for 140 minutes, although the numbers aren't adding up on that page for me since we've played 1632 regulation minutes in 34 games but the top rotation listed there only shows 340 minutes. So I might be missing something here but at least according to that list our 2nd most common lineup has both Z and Al in there at the same time and we know Z sucks up the offensive boards.

That page shows 1060 of the 1637 total minutes (we had one OT game). That is just the top 20 line-ups which totals roughly 65% of our minutes. It isn't unrealistic to have more than 20 line-ups, just think of it as a probability problem with 12 available people to choose from and 5 spots to fill. If I am doing it correctly, that leads to:

12! / [5!*7!] = (12*11*10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1) / [(5*4*3*2*1) * (7*6*5*4*3*2*1)] = 792 possible line-ups

Certainly, its unexpected to ever see a line-up of Bibby, Acie, Flip, Mario, and Mo so the 792 possible line-ups does not mean 792 probable line-ups. Either way, you can see that there are actually a great deal of line-up possibilities. So you are adding them up correctly, there are just a large amount of line-ups we could see.

[Guest]

Do you mean on offense? Last year it seemed like he was a monster on the boards. I'm thinking part of the problem this year is we are shooting so many long jumpers that getting offensive rebounds is much harder than when we're driving to the basket. Seems like last year JJ drove a lot more, chill was always around the basket and Marvin was shooting more mid range shots. I've got nothing to back it up but that's my theory.

Checked the stats and his offensive rebounding is down from last year but his assists are up. I think we're on pace to attempt about 600 or 700 more 3 pointers this year.

That seems like a reasonable theory as to why his rebounding numbers are down. In general, our overall offensive rebounds per game are down (12.3 last year to roughly 10.7 this year) and that would make us assume we have less opportunities. At the same time, Zaza's O-bounds per 36 have increased from 3.4 to 4.8 which is a very large increase. So Zaza's rebounding has increased and his time has increased which leads to Zaza "taking away" O-boards from Horford. We may also be seeing a decline in overall O-boards because we no longer have Chill as well. Childress had roughly 2.3 per game, then subtract Mo Evans 1 per game and that leaves 1.3 per game lost.

Interesting to note, our defensive rebounds per game has slightly increased by about 1 per game. Horford has maintained roughly the same D-boards per 36. So where did our increase in D-baords come from? I think we find the answer in Zaza increasing his D-boards by 1.1 per 48, which leads to 9.2 D-boards per 48. Gee, who predicted this earlier in the year?

[crimedog]

We're shooting a higher percentage overall this season even with the MASSIVE increase of 3pt shots being taken.

Also, don't know if its been mentioned, last season Al was taking jumpers 51% of the time and this season he's taking them 60% of the time. So he's not right under the hoop as often. He's also making more of his inside shots which lowers the chances of him grabbing his own miss and putting it back. Josh, who scores the most points inside this season and last season, is also hitting +65% of his "inside" shots this season as opposed to just under 61% last season so there are fewer short rebounds for him too.

It does seem like Al just hasn't been boarding as maniacally this season, but having fewer shots missed where the D is drawn in and out of position can't help. Also, taking more jumpers this season means he is probably out of position a little more often.

Edited January 8, 2009 by crimedog

[Admin]

That page shows 1060 of the 1637 total minutes (we had one OT game). That is just the top 20 line-ups which totals roughly 65% of our minutes. It isn't unrealistic to have more than 20 line-ups, just think of it as a probability problem with 12 available people to choose from and 5 spots to fill. If I am doing it correctly, that leads to:

12! / [5!*7!] = (12*11*10*9*8*7*6*5*4*3*2*1) / [(5*4*3*2*1) * (7*6*5*4*3*2*1)] = 792 possible line-ups

Certainly, its unexpected to ever see a line-up of Bibby, Acie, Flip, Mario, and Mo so the 792 possible line-ups does not mean 792 probable line-ups. Either way, you can see that there are actually a great deal of line-up possibilities. So you are adding them up correctly, there are just a large amount of line-ups we could see.

Ah that makes sense, thank you for clarifying. Then it stands to reason that Zaza getting so many minutes with Al this year as opposed to last might be a reason why his offensive rebounds are down a full rebound per game.

[Kimsey]

It's nothing wrong with Horford, he still has one and only offensive move(running right handed jumpshot). He has a decent shot from around the free throw line and his fadeaway shot has promise. But his back to game is probably worse than Bibby's at this point.

[frankthetank966]

Al is doing a fine job this season. Until this point I always thought he was capable of playing Center at an NBA level and be up there as one of the best Centers in the league. Now I feel that he is out of position and should be playing PF. He has a very nice outside shot for a center and his inside game is above average at best. Maybe its just the way the Hawks are playing with Marvin out or maybe its b/c we are shifting to a more perimeter shooting team. I think the Hawks should sign Marvin this off-season with plans of utilizing him as a 6th man and make an attempt to lure a true center like Boozer to Atlanta.

[crimedog]

Al is doing a fine job this season. Until this point I always thought he was capable of playing Center at an NBA level and be up there as one of the best Centers in the league. Now I feel that he is out of position and should be playing PF. He has a very nice outside shot for a center and his inside game is above average at best. Maybe its just the way the Hawks are playing with Marvin out or maybe its b/c we are shifting to a more perimeter shooting team. I think the Hawks should sign Marvin this off-season with plans of utilizing him as a 6th man and make an attempt to lure a true center like Boozer to Atlanta.

Boozer destroys Cs on offense but he's a disaster against them on D.

[frankthetank966]

Boozer destroys Cs on offense but he's a disaster against them on D.

I was just tossing around a name.

[KDT88]

Maybe we can ditch him in a trade for Boozer or something.

You have a depressing avatar.

[Cwell]

I was just tossing around a name.

u tossed out a name of a guy that isn't a true center

[Plainview1981]

You have a depressing avatar.

It's a symbol of what JJ is as a basketball player.

[Dakin]

It's a symbol of what JJ is as a basketball player.

Aren't you the one who goes on about how unemotional he is? And yet you have a picture of JJ - Obviously deflated about his or the teams performance - at his most emotional? Do you see the paradox?