Espn's NBA Summer Forcast: East Standings

[lvhawk07]

So far our forecasts have focused on the fun stuff: Rookie of the Year, Best and Worst Newcomers, Team Turmoil, Team Turnaround, Most Valuable Player and the futures of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire.

But now we turn our attention to the real nitty-gritty: the 2009-10 outlook for each team.

Our 53 panelists from across ESPN have predicted the number of wins and losses for each team, and today we're providing the average tally for each team in the Eastern Conference.

One important note: The order of finish is more important in these predictions than the exact number of wins and losses. When 53 individuals vote, they will almost never all agree that one team will win as many as, let's say, 65 games or that another team will win only 20 games, even though we know these things happen frequently. Why? Because these are extreme results that happen when pretty much everything goes right or everything goes wrong for a team. The panel collectively takes a more measured view, so the forecasts for wins and losses tend to float toward the middle.

With that in mind, here is what our collective crystal ball reveals:

Predicted Standings for Eastern Conference: 2009-10

CONF TEAM W L PCT 09 W 09 L 09 PCT

1

Cleveland Cavaliers 61 21 .744 66 16 .805

Let's talk Shaq, the Big Caveat Emptor: He has won four titles, is on his fifth franchise and has been swept from the playoffs six times. Reborn in Phoenix, he led the Suns to exactly one playoff win in two seasons. So will he break up the Cavs with laughter or just break them up? Can't wait to find out. (Why only 61 wins? See note above.)

2

Boston Celtics 57 25 .695 62 20 .756

Many think a healthy Kevin Garnett and a revitalized Rasheed Wallace will get the Celts back to the top. (See our East title picks on Thursday.) But KG's balky knee is unproven, and Sheed is a known coach killer who is coming off a lousy season and turns 35 this month. So some voters are still in wait-and-C mode.

3

Orlando Magic 56 26 .683 59 23 .720

Orlando's magical run to the NBA Finals didn't make a believer out of everyone, and the sorta-swap of Hedo Turkoglu for Vince Carter got mixed reviews (here and here). But some like what they see, including a starting lineup that features four recent All-Stars, and expect big things again in O-Town.

4

Atlanta Hawks 45 37 .549 47 35 .573

ESPN's panelists like the Hawks as the Beasts of the Rest in the East once again, expecting the additions of Jamal Crawford and Joe Smith to keep them in the No. 4 slot. If our Eastern Conference prognostications are accurate, the Hawks will again host the Miami Heat in Game 1 of Round 1 when the playoffs begin next April.

5

Miami Heat 44 38 .537 43 39 .524

A year ago, our forecasters were all over the place in trying to guess where the 15-67 Heat would finish in '09. Now that they have seen a healthy Dwyane Wade take his team to a 43-39 finish and the No. 5 seed, our panelists expect more of the same as Miami bides its time until the summer of 2010.

6

Chicago Bulls 43 39 .524 41 41 .500

Our voters have the Bulls winning as few as 30 games and as many as 55, and perhaps it comes down to what they think of reigning rookie of the year Derrick Rose, whose scintillating playoff performance was followed by a tumultuous summer. In any case, most of our panel is bullish on Chicago overall.

7

Philadelphia 76ers 39 43 .476 41 41 .500

Our panel is hardly in love with Philly, but it still sees the 76ers squeaking into the playoffs (with an average prediction of 39.4 wins). File under "Best Guess," though, because no one knows exactly what the arrival of new coach Eddie Jordan, the return of post man Elton Brand and the departure of point guard Andre Miller really mean.

8

Washington Wizards 39 43 .476 19 63 .232

To hopeful Wiz fans, the arrival of Flip Saunders, Randy Foye and Mike Miller along with an apparent return to health for Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood will make all the difference. But while our panel sees the Wiz as probable to make the playoffs (with an average prediction of 39.1 wins), it still doesn't see them as true contenders.

9

Toronto Raptors 39 43 .476 33 49 .402

If you have to be cruel to be kind, then our panel is killing Toronto with kindness. After Monday's prediction that Chris Bosh would depart in 2010, now our forecasters have the Raptors missing the playoffs by 0.1 wins (with an average prediction of 39.0 wins). We'll see if the addition of Hedo Turkoglu is the tonic in Toronto.

10

Detroit Pistons 38 44 .463 39 43 .476

Detroit fans are already defining success downward, and our panel says they have the right idea. If our forecast plays out, the Pistons will miss the playoffs for the first time in nine seasons, and will have a lottery pick to show for their hotly debated trade of Chauncey Billups and acquisitions of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.

11

Charlotte Bobcats 35 47 .427 35 47 .427

Michael Jordan's Bobcats are stuck in purgatory, according to our panel: too talented and well-coached to be terrible and get a high lottery pick, but not talented enough to make their first-ever playoff run. So what does all that mediocrity and a swap of Emeka Okafor for Tyson Chandler get you? Another 35-47 season.

12

Indiana Pacers 33 49 .402 36 46 .439

For three straight seasons, the Pacers have been the East's best lottery team. Alas, our panel doesn't see their inglorious run of ninth-place finishes continuing, as Indiana looks like No. 12 material to ESPN's experts. The biggest issue seems to be a depleted talent base unreplenished since the Pacers' recent glory years.

13

New York Knicks 32 50 .390 32 50 .390

It has been a strange offseason in New York, with doomed bids to sign 1995 co-rookies of the year Jason Kidd and Grant Hill, a field trip to witness Eddy Curry's waistline and endless negotiations with free agents David Lee, Nate Robinson and Ramon Sessions. The reason, of course, is the summer of 2010. In the meantime …

14

Milwaukee Bucks 30 52 .366 34 48 .415

With questions about Michael Redd's knee, Andrew Bogut's back, Charlie Villanueva's replacement and the PG position, Milwaukee is one of the NBA's true mystery teams. Could coach Scott Skiles lead the Bucks to a surprise playoff run? Could they fall apart and lose 60 games? As the saying goes, that's why they play the games.

15

New Jersey Nets 29 53 .354 34 48 .415

No franchise has more uncertainty about its future than the one that has traded away Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter in the past two years and made many false starts in its bid to get to Brooklyn. But the silver lining is the Nets have some good young talent and should have a high lottery pick and lots of 2010 cap space.

[pimp]

Raptor fans are having a fit on realgm.Their fans think Toronto is better than the Hawks, but ESPN doesn't even have them making the playoffs :tongue:

[Admin]

This is actually one of the better forecasts, perhaps the best, that I've seen.

[ATLNY7]

I think the hawks will have more the 45 wins.

[capstone21]

It is nice to get some respect. I don't think TO is better then us but they are better then Philly. Philly has no point guard right now.

[EazyRoc]

Louis Williams!

/sarcasm

[tbhawksfan]

For the Hawks to be the "Beasts of the Rest in the East" I think they need to have more than a game or two on MIA and CHI.

I think the Hawks should be at least 5 or 6 games ahead of those teams in the final record.

[h2t]

I just don't understand how people can think the Hawks won't improve on their 47-35 record this year...much less have a worse record. The young core is a year older, the team overall is loads deeper and more talented and experienced, and it's not like the East has gotten much better..if at all. We'll probably still be the #4 seed but we'll be a helluva lot closer to #3 than 11 freakin games.

[Admin]

I didn't really look at the predicted wins/losses from that article but rather the seeding in the conference. Who knows whether they were accurate with wins or not but I do agree we should probably get to 50 wins this year, however I doubt we'll move into the top 3 seeds.

[Crank]

After Lebrons interview where he talks about loyalty to Akron I expect the Cavs to bomb and fall out of the top 3 . I just dont see how he is gonna keep his team focused when hes talking about maybe leaving. If they struggle coming out of the gate I expect a collapse .

The Celts are gonna regroup Im just not sure that at this stage of their careers that the Big 3 can maintain the pace and make it through full season. All of them are 30+ and were major minute players for years its gonna start to take its toll.

The Magic are gonna be good but theyve changed a lot about their team .Im always leery about teams with new found success changing their core so soon.

With the moves teams in the east have made its gonna be an interesting year and I wouldnt be surprised to see a conference where not a lot of games separate teams 1-8 in the win column

[Plainview1981]

Louis Williams!

/sarcasm

The best part of that team left. Miller kept that team afloat I think.

[Plainview1981]

I just don't understand how people can think the Hawks won't improve on their 47-35 record this year...much less have a worse record. The young core is a year older, the team overall is loads deeper and more talented and experienced, and it's not like the East has gotten much better..if at all. We'll probably still be the #4 seed but we'll be a helluva lot closer to #3 than 11 freakin games.

Other teams have improved as much/more and there is no 8 game home stands to spring board off of.

[Admin]

Other teams have improved as much/more and there is no 8 game home stands to spring board off of.

You do realize that for there to be an 8 game home stand that there must also be at least 1 and likely 2 extended road trips to equal the games out, right?

[macdaddy]

I agree this forecast seems logical. The wiz are where they should be. I don't know if the Heat are going to be that good though.

[Plainview1981]

You do realize that for there to be an 8 game home stand that there must also be at least 1 and likely 2 extended road trips to equal the games out, right?

Maybe so, but I think with this team... Two 8 game handstands were big from a mental standpoint. Given that this is a very inconstant team, it allowed them 2 chances to put together big winning streaks.

[jy23]

S

You do realize that for there to be an 8 game home stand that there must also be at least 1 and likely 2 extended road trips to equal the games out, right?

Nope, u know he doesn't.

[Plainview1981]

S

Nope, u know he doesn't.

I don't recall yanking your string. Keep quiet puppet.

Edited September 6, 2009 by Hotlanta1981

[sillent]

I agree this forecast seems logical. The wiz are where they should be. I don't know if the Heat are going to be that good though.

I always felt like one of the reasons we made the move for Crawford was to have some kind of attack against Wade(52 point game against heat/Wade). If u saw the playoffs and witnessed Dwayne Wade destroying us at times u would definitely look for a way to negate his play. Sund might also be predicting what actually might pan out and is trying to prepare for it.

Note: Of course I know D-Wade is not the only reason we got Crawford and no Crawford is not better than Wade but he can make him work alot harder on the defensive end.

[sillent]

I always felt like one of the reasons we made the move for Crawford was to have some kind of attack against Wade(52 point game against heat/Wade). If u saw the playoffs and witnessed Dwayne Wade destroying us at times u would definitely look for a way to negate his play. Sund might also be predicting what actually might pan out and is trying to prepare for it.

Note: Of course I know D-Wade is not the only reason we got Crawford and no Crawford is not better than Wade but he can make him work alot harder on the defensive end.

In other words it's hard to discredit a superstar like Wade from at least willing his team to make it some where near 5th in the East.Plus he may want to seek a little revenge on us if he can(rather than worrying about facing Boston,Cleveland/Orlando).

[DrReality]

We added three important vets that should help when it comes to the playoffs. Both Joe S and Collins (I was surprised to see how much experience he has) have been to the playoffs multiple times. And Craw is seasoned.