Joe Johnson, Vince Carter, & Where to Go From Here.

[mrhonline]

In terms of what they've accomplished, their effectiveness with the ball in their hands (e.g., AST%, TOV%), their efficiency (e.g., eFG%, TS%, 3PT%), their usage rates, and ability to affect the game without the ball (e.g., TRB%, STL%), Joe Johnson and Vince Carter are strong statistical comparisons through their first 9 seasons.

See cumulative stats here: B-R.com

See stats for seasons 5-9 (JJ's tenure with Hawks) here: B-R.com

If you look at Carter's contract in terms of years 10-14 (a "five-year" deal equivalent to the one likely to be offered to Joe), he received the following:

Year 1: $13.32M

Year 2: $14.72M

Year 3: $16.12M

Year 4: $17.52M

Year 5: $18.92M (only $4M is guaranteed)

Years 1-4 are equivalent to ~$61.68M, a total that strongly resembles the rumored offer to JJ. The fifth year of Carter's contract is only guaranteed at $4M, and the Magic will almost certainly trade him prior to that point for a better use of their luxury tax money...

In terms of production, let's compare how Carter performed in the three seasons prior to year 10 with how he's done from year 10 on:

PER--> 22.1; 19.0

TS% --> .546; .545

eFG% --> .489; .492

TRB% --> 9.0; 8.6

AST% --> 25.0; 23.7

STL% --> 1.7; 1.5

BLK% --> 1.2; 1.0

TOV% -->10.0; 10.2

USG% --> 31.6; 26.5

FT/36 --> 5.1; 4.1

3PT% --> .365; .373

Generally, what you are seeing with a player like Carter is a fairly slow decline in skills from All-Star level to above average starter on a contending team. I think it's perfectly reasonable to expect Joe to be the same caliber of player he is now for the first three seasons of his new contract.

Joe would be tough to move during seasons 3 or 4 of a five-year deal, for sure. Unfortunately, the Crawford trade has left the Hawks will little recourse but to pay him his money. The good news is that Joe never relies on his athleticism like Carter has, although the argument could be made that Carter was the better player through seasons 1-9, meaning that any drop in skill level for Joe in his new contract would make him one of the most overpaid players in the NBA.

Losing Joe to free agency would be far more detrimental than signing him to a bloated contract (5 yrs, $85M?), because you could plan to find a taker for a significant portion of his contract down the road, while letting him go frees up no real cap space to replace him.

Bottom line, I don't think we have to worry about a dramatic drop off in JJ's abilities during the first half of his new deal. In my opinion, the bigger questions are 1.) Will the owners be willing to climb into the luxury tax for a season to keep him, and 2.) will the economic downturn continue to cause cost-cutting maneuvers around the NBA, making it harder to move a player like JJ down the road?

[AHF]

Great post. I'll add that I like our chances of resigning JJ if we are willing to match any other team's offer. I think JJ's move to hold off on a contract extension makes all the economic sense in the world and that our ability to offer an extra year will be very important to him at this point in his career. I am not in the crowd that thinks that JJ's refusal to sign a 4 year deal last offseason when he can get a 6 year deal this offseason is necessarily an indication that he has written off a future in Atlanta.

[HawksFan87]

honestly at this point I don't care if he comes back or not, as long as we get something good him if we decide to do a sign and trade deal..

[HawkItus]

If I were in management I would be looking to trade JJ at this point. Considering Carter as a marker, what did he do for his teams. He never won a title. He never delivered a conference championship. He eventually became an anchor to the teams continued success. JJ is headed down that road. A big contract will commit us to the team we currently have. So will letting him go for nothing. Our best option is a trade.

[buckeye242424]

If I were in management I would be looking to trade JJ at this point. Considering Carter as a marker, what did he do for his teams. He never won a title. He never delivered a conference championship. He eventually became an anchor to the teams continued success. JJ is headed down that road. A big contract will commit us to the team we currently have. So will letting him go for nothing. Our best option is a trade.

I don't think this is a bad thing. In comparison to what the Hawks have been, having this same group around for a few more years sounds good to me. Now would they continue the moderate success? Who knows? (i'm not convinced on the coach, of course) but early on this season, seeing the same "core" guys with some added pieces here and there have been productive. JJ chooses to sign, after another successful year of winning and improving, we become more attractive to free agents.

Edited November 30, 2009 by buckeye242424

[mrhonline]

Our best option is a trade.

Not yet.  If the Hawks fall out of the playoff race, perhaps.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

The fate of recent playoff teams after they lost and/or traded their best player:

Minnesota trades Garnett for younger talent . . . . they now suck

Golden St didn't want to pay Baron Davis and Keep paying Jason Richardson, and ends up losing them both . . . they now suck

LA Clippers played around with Brand, and they end up losing him . . they now suck

Memphis trades Pau Gasol instead of waiting for a guy like Rudy Gay to develop alomgside him. . . they now suck

Seattle ( under Sund ) didn't want to overpay for Rashard Lewis . . . Seattle sucked and end up losing their entire franchise to another city

Jersey gives up on the last of their Big 3 ( Jefferson first, then Carter ) . . ad they are now an historically bad team

Be careful what you wish for folks. When an entire team is constructed around JJ and his all-around abilities, and you suddenly take that away, you better pray and hope the guys still on the team can elevate their games significantly.

This is a league that wins with multiple star players. Don't ever forget that.

The good thing about JJ's game, is even if he falls off to the point where he's not the offensive focal point of the team in 2014-15, he could still be an effective player as a spot up shooter/defender . . ala Michael Finley or James Posey. He's still going to have a size advantage over people. But by that time, he may strictly be a SF, instead of a SG.

As long as we're near the top of the standings, you don't even think about trading JJ, even if he's shooting 42% FG.. You have to keep a good player like that on the team, and let everything play out.

It'll be interesting what the sentiment on this subject is come February, because Dominique back in 1994 played exactly how JJ is playing now . . great on some nights, erratic the next. He even was called selfish at times.

But the team was used to playing with Nique, through good or bad games, and still manage to dominate at home and grind it out on the road.

Then we call ourselves trading for a younger, more versatile SF/PF in Danny Manning, sending Nique to the Ciippers. Clippers end up playing the Hawks a few weeks later, and Nique drops 34 points on us . . . when we were the best team in the East.

I'm not going to rehash the Nique/Manning trade any more than that, but we all know what went down.

Edited December 1, 2009 by northcyde

[HawksFan87]

Nique is a legend, Joe will NEVER be one big difference.

[Kimsey]

The team won 56 games three years after the Nique trade even though Manning left for nothing in return.

This team has surpassed building around Joe imo, it's more about the length and athleticism of Smith, Horford, and Williams. We don't have to quickly sign a guard so hastily in the event Joe leaves for nothing all though a deadline or sign and trade are optional. We could wait a year with Crawford(he has trade value too) and sign a 2 in 2011.

Caron Butler

Richard Jefferson

Jason Richardson

Michael Redd

Shannon Brown

Josh Howard

Not as good as Joe but serviceable.

If trading does happen, Sund has to get a pick high enough to nab Evan Turner or Xavier Henry.

[coachx]

honestly at this point I don't care if he comes back or not, as long as we get something good him if we decide to do a sign and trade deal..

You mean like boris Diaw ? LOL.

Don't hold out hope for any sign and trade deal that gives us equal compensation. Its just not going to happen. Now if you want Al Harrington, David Lee, Nate Robinson...............then you may be in luck.

[coachx]

Nique is a legend, Joe will NEVER be one big difference.

Nique never got out of the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Just trying to keep it real. Nique is a legend but was no more of a "winner" then JJ is.

[Packfill]

honestly at this point I don't care if he comes back or not, as long as we get something good him if we decide to do a sign and trade deal..

There is zero chance the Hawks could get equal value in return for JJ and losing him would likely mean a pretty decent step back in terms of team development.

[Buzzard]

Great post. I'll add that I like our chances of resigning JJ if we are willing to match any other team's offer. I think JJ's move to hold off on a contract extension makes all the economic sense in the world and that our ability to offer an extra year will be very important to him at this point in his career. I am not in the crowd that thinks that JJ's refusal to sign a 4 year deal last offseason when he can get a 6 year deal this offseason is necessarily an indication that he has written off a future in Atlanta.

I agree AHF. If we offer JJ the extra 6th year I do not see how we lose him. There is one guy that I like next year as a sleeper FA. Its CJ Watson. While everyone is chasing the big names, CJ could possibly be had for our mid level exception. Why aquire CJ, another guard? Crawford becomes a FA after next season and also in case the last sentence below happens.

Resign JJ, get a coach, pick up one more FA, draft, and see what happens. With all the possible movement next year, Orlando and our Hawks could be 1 and 2 in the East. Boston is getting really old and Cleveland without Lebron is lottery bound.

If this luxury tax team fails; then make a move with JJ or one of our core players.

Edited December 1, 2009 by Buzzard

[bonethugz]

Nique never got out of the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Just trying to keep it real. Nique is a legend but was no more of a "winner" then JJ is.

jj will never face somebody close to nique faced, for example, bird and mj.

[bonethugz]

The fate of recent playoff teams after they lost and/or traded their best player:

Minnesota trades Garnett for younger talent . . . . they now suck

Golden St didn't want to pay Baron Davis and Keep paying Jason Richardson, and ends up losing them both . . . they now suck

LA Clippers played around with Brand, and they end up losing him . . they now suck

Memphis trades Pau Gasol instead of waiting for a guy like Rudy Gay to develop alomgside him. . . they now suck

Seattle ( under Sund ) didn't want to overpay for Rashard Lewis . . . Seattle sucked and end up losing their entire franchise to another city

Jersey gives up on the last of their Big 3 ( Jefferson first, then Carter ) . . ad they are now an historically bad team

all those decisions seems logical at the time but it somehow all went that way(i believe the warriors paid corey maggette that summer). the wolves situation was a little different. didn't they wanted kg to get a ring?

[coachx]

jj will never face somebody close to nique faced, for example, bird and mj.

Kobe, James, Wade ?

[Crank]

The fate of recent playoff teams after they lost and/or traded their best player:

Minnesota trades Garnett for younger talent . . . . they now suck

Golden St didn't want to pay Baron Davis and Keep paying Jason Richardson, and ends up losing them both . . . they now suck

LA Clippers played around with Brand, and they end up losing him . . they now suck

Memphis trades Pau Gasol instead of waiting for a guy like Rudy Gay to develop alomgside him. . . they now suck

Seattle ( under Sund ) didn't want to overpay for Rashard Lewis . . . Seattle sucked and end up losing their entire franchise to another city

Jersey gives up on the last of their Big 3 ( Jefferson first, then Carter ) . . ad they are now an historically bad team

Minnesota sucked with KG that team even with KG was on a serious decline .

The clipps suck with Baron who showed up ginormous after he signed that fat deal and the Bobcats sucked with Jrich who they then dealt to the Suns . The warriors have sucked for a quite a while one good season wouldnt have changed anything

The clippers had sucked with brand and the Sixers suck with him now

The grizzlies sucked with Gasol

The sonics were on the decline why would a team without a #1 pay someone they know is not one #1 money when they know he wont affect there win total

The Big three were declining and all were making a big money they made in the playoffs in 06 and then went .500 the next season their age was showing and there was no really coming .

Again its no so much losing those players that hurt but what those teams got in return and how they fit into the teams plans going forward .

[Atlantaholic]

Kobe, James, Wade ?

Did you ever watch MJ and Bird play? out of those three only James is comparable, and he plays on a joke of a team (compared to the teams the above played for). Wade is not comparable and his team is an even bigger joke. Kobe is the only one of the three that has a good team around him but he isn't even close to as good as MJ and Bird.

JJ doesn't even sniff Nique. JJ is on a Steve Smith level, the only difference is that we have given him the role of Nique.

[jerrywest]

Did you ever watch MJ and Bird play? out of those three only James is comparable, and he plays on a joke of a team (compared to the teams the above played for). Wade is not comparable and his team is an even bigger joke. Kobe is the only one of the three that has a good team around him but he isn't even close to as good as MJ and Bird.

JJ doesn't even sniff Nique. JJ is on a Steve Smith level, the only difference is that we have given him the role of Nique.

Smitty had a two all time great defenders around him (Deke & Mookie). Not much offensive help & non existent bench.

Nique had much more experienced players around him than JJ.

[Buzzard]

Did you ever watch MJ and Bird play? out of those three only James is comparable, and he plays on a joke of a team (compared to the teams the above played for). Wade is not comparable and his team is an even bigger joke. Kobe is the only one of the three that has a good team around him but he isn't even close to as good as MJ and Bird.

JJ doesn't even sniff Nique. JJ is on a Steve Smith level, the only difference is that we have given him the role of Nique.

I agree JJ is not in the same class as Nique, Magic, MJ, Bird, James, and Kobe. Wade is a cut above JJ but a cut below that HOF list. Kobe is right there IMO. Discounting, Pippen, Grant, and Rodman is not completely fair; but I do agree 100% MJ had a lot less to work with and did more than Magic and Bird.

Nique could average 28ppg in his prime on any team in the NBA; JJ is not capable of doing that even on a team like our previous 20 and 30 win season teams. JJ is not elite, but he is the closest to elite we have right now. I think of him as our Billups or a slightly better version of RIP; neither are elite but both are very good all-stars.