Hawks being too passive in free agent market

[pimp]

http://blogs.ajc.com/jeff-schultz-blog/2010/07/20/hawks-being-too-passive-and-cheap-in-free-agent-market/

When the Miami Heat went shopping in this NBA offseason, they chose to bypass the markdowns at the strip malls, the polo shirts from Old Navy that morph into dust rags after two washings and the lime green shorts with a broken zipper from the $1 table at the neighborhood yard sale . They cruised Rodeo Drive. Why? Because they could. Maybe they also have some strange desire to win.

The Hawks are still in the midst of their shopping this offseason. It has been quiet, even as they roam the aisles of Value City. There’s still a chance they will come home with something other than used Play-Doh and a bag of defective socks. But don’t count on it. They have made it clear that their heads are bumping up against the ceiling of their budget. They won’t add a player if it means having to pay a luxury tax. They won’t add a player if it means trading a perceived player of significance. It doesn’t matter if the new player can actually make them better, or if he would ignite a fan base that’s just looking for a reason to walk through a turnstile.

Maybe this passive approach works. There was that whole tortoise-and-the-hare thing. Maybe drafting Jordan Crawford, giving more playing time to Jeff Teague and getting Joe Johnson to share the ball will make a difference. But after going 0-8 in the second in the last two years, is this the mindset an NBA franchise should have?

General manager Rick Sund said what he often says: “I like our team.”

He is hesitant to trade a perceived core player, disrupt chemistry or blow the budget. Let’s put aside for a moment that the organization recently overpaid to keep Johnson, who has fizzled in the postseason and doesn’t quite unite the fan base. Sund still sees the Hawks are trending upward.

He states his case: “Our goal is to continue to put an elite caliber ballclub on the floor and stay within the model [owner] Bill Davidson had when the Pistons were winning championships and what San Antonio did with their spending and the way they stayed under the luxury tax.”

Not every team can sign Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh. Most can’t even sign one. But sorry. The idea should be to aim higher. Bringing back Jason Collins, just because he lost weight in Europe and comes cheap, doesn’t cut it.

Replacing Solomon Jones and Randolph Morris with Solomon Jones and Randolph Morris clones is not what aggressive teams do. It’s like painting over a water stain on the ceiling without fixing the leak.

Strange. Sund’s analysis of the roster actually jibes with everybody else’s.

“We need two bigs – a center and a power forward,” he said.

But after some negotiations, the Hawks bailed on signing free agent center Brad Miller because he got too expensive. (Miller ultimately signed with Houston.) They’ve played footsy with Shaquille O’Neal, but they believe the would-be Big Peach’s asking price is too high (for now) and he seems unwilling to take a bench role (for now).

The problem: Shaq is the best player left in the depleted free agent market. It’s not even close.

Here’s the question Sund and ownership should be asking themselves: Who makes us better? They’ve convinced themselves that a center-by-committee (Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, Collins and maybe you if can get a resume in) will be enough to challenge Orlando, Boston and Miami in the Eastern Conference.

Maybe Sund really believes this. Maybe his hands are tied. Maybe he just likes playing it safe, and if it doesn’t work out, well, he’s near retirement anyway. But can you feel comfortable with the status quo?

Sund again: “I think we’re pointed in the right direction. I’m hopeful we’ll improve with some changes to our offense and our young players getting older, and we can stay among the top four teams in the Eastern Conference.”

It doesn’t make much of a rallying cry.

Have the Hawks improved themselves enough this offseason.

* No,they're basically the same team as last year. (91%, 201 Votes)

* I can't make up my mind. (5%, 12 Votes)

* Yes, they're ready to challenge for the Eastern Conference title. (4%, 8 Votes)

Total Voters: 221

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Edited July 20, 2010 by pimp

[TomSelleck]

Apples to oranges. At the beginning of free agency the Heat had 3 players under contract while the Hawks had 8. It's a little easier to be aggressive that way.

[Admin]

This says it all right here ... "He states his case: “Our goal is to continue to put an elite caliber ballclub on the floor and stay within the model [owner] Bill Davidson had when the Pistons were winning championships and what San Antonio did with their spending and the way they stayed under the luxury tax.”

I can't say that I can disagree with this model for building a team, except for the fact that San Antonio has a vastly superior scouting department, actually keeps their 2nd round picks, has a HoF head coach, one of the most respected GM's in NBA history, and has had back to back superstar centers to build around. But other than that we should be able to follow their model to the tee.

[GameTime]

I can't say that I can disagree with this model for building a team, except for the fact that San Antonio has a vastly superior scouting department, actually keeps their 2nd round picks, has a HoF head coach, one of the most respected GM's in NBA history, and has had back to back superstar centers to build around. But other than that we should be able to follow their model to the tee.

:laughing5:

[Yeti]

Good post, Pimp. One big advantage Miami has is the ownership. Their owner is LOADED ($6 billion) and seems to actually want to win. I'm not sure the ASG are wealthy enough to own a team - they can't afford to compete at the highest level.

[Sothron]

This says it all right here ... "He states his case: “Our goal is to continue to put an elite caliber ballclub on the floor and stay within the model [owner] Bill Davidson had when the Pistons were winning championships and what San Antonio did with their spending and the way they stayed under the luxury tax.”

I can't say that I can disagree with this model for building a team, except for the fact that San Antonio has a vastly superior scouting department, actually keeps their 2nd round picks, has a HoF head coach, one of the most respected GM's in NBA history, and has had back to back superstar centers to build around. But other than that we should be able to follow their model to the tee.

lol +1. The Spurs have always been able to find overseas players in low first round or second round picks and get a ton of value out of them.

[hogfulness]

The Spurs are patient with their overseas picks as well.

I think they drafted Tiago Splitter when they where in the ABA.

[Brokentree]

...and what San Antonio did with their spending and the way they stayed under the luxury tax.

San Antonio has paid a luxury tax of some amount in 3 of the last 5 years. Granted 2 of those 3 years was in the hundreds of thousands and not in the millions. Last year they paid 8.8 million.

I have a feeling the ASG is more concerned with receiving payments like the 3.7 million they got last year from other teams luxury tax payments. If they pay the tax they are not eligible to receive a tax share.

[drzachary]

I agree with most of what he says, but it's easier to land THREE STARS when those three star players decide *ahead of time* to play together for you.

[Dejay]

Well, after reading Northcyde's tirade, it got me fired up too. This is the small book I sent in...

North, welcome to the Dark Side. I tried to reach out to you months ago when you ripped folks for not showing up; you've finally seen it my way.

I've been preaching this sermon since the Dan Roundfield days regarding this franchise. Championships are won long before TNT runs their '40 games in 40 nights' promos in May. They are won in the front office and unfortunately for every person who call themselves Hawk fans, we've never had a single guy there who acted on that.

Kasten? Please. He's the same clown who not only drafted Jon Koncak but gave him a cap-killing extension to boot. If it weren't for the Jazz nearly going bankrupt, Nique's jersey would be hanging from the rafters in Salt Lake right now. Like Sund, he also sat on his hands and watched Nique's teams go stale while the Pistons, Bulls, and Knicks passed them by. The only moves he made to help his franchise player, who was getting double and triple-teamed night after night was bringing in old Moses Malone and old Reggie Theus; we all know how well that turned out, don't we?

Babcock? No need to go into the Nique trade again. Because of his pisspoor drafting (Adam Keefe, Doug Edwards, and Dion Glover ring a bell?), Steve Smith, Mookie, and Dikembe had to play 99.9999% of the game for them to have a shot to win. He's the single reason why Alan Henderson and Chris Crawford are sitting in beachfront houses in Aruba counting their $$$$ right now. Oh yeah, do I really need to mention J.R. Rider?

BK? Get real. He's had not one, not two, not four, but as King Kong Bundy would say, FIVE LOTTERY PICKS. After losing 50+ games all of those years, you would've expected the self-proclaimed 'basketball expert' to bring in guys who would've change the franchise for the better. With the exception of Horford, he managed to draft a glue guy who doesn't start, the clumsiest small forward in basketball, and two others who will have a hard time getting an NBA deal over the league minimum. Just how much different would this team look with Chris Paul, Rudy Gay, and Al Jefferson on it instead of what's there right now? The resources used to bring in Speedy Claxton, only to be forced to trade for Bibby could've easily been reallocated to getting the big man they so desperately needs if BK had simply did what all of us here, on Hawksquawk, RealGM, and Peachtree Hoops had suggested; leaving Marvin alone to draft a point guard. On top of that, he hires a guy who comes from the Red Holtzman school of not playing young players, even if he has a ROSTER FULL OF THEM. Woodson would've had CP3 or Deron sitting the bench behind Tyronn Lue and Anthony Johnson. BK has done just as much damage to the team as the A.S.G., which leads me to....

Rick Sund. He bamboozles Golden State into giving us Crawford and, well, that's been all folks. Oh yeah, thanks to BK's cracked vision of having a roster of 6'9" guys and Woodson's 'never play the young guys while JJ or Crawford pounds the ball' coaching style, Joe Johnson had all the leverage he needed to secure a maximum deal. Sund insists that a new coach and more improvement from 'the core' is all that is needed for them to be a top-4 team again. He insists that he'll get the help that Horford's been screaming from the hilltops for and his answer is Jason Collins? Really???? He must have missed the memo that Lebron and Bosh joined a team in his own division, which would make them the 5th best team in the conference at best. Yet and still, he refuses to part with any players of value (????), despite the fact that they just finished getting swept away in record-setting fashion AT HOME. Well, when you're considering Marvin Williams as a core player, well, that tells me that you really aren't paying attention and a new driver needs to take the wheel.

Ladies and gentlemen, I present the leaders of our local NBA team over the past 30 years.

If anyone wants to know why Philips is only half-full when the Lebrons or Kobe isn't in town, say no more. If anyone wants to know why the locals throw up their hands in frustration, only to turn around and buy a Dwayne Wade jersey, well, as Ryan Cameron would say, NOW YOU KNOW.

When you have a franchise who only thinks about how much $$$ they can make by getting to the second round of the playoffs instead of one who thinks of the proper route they should go on during their championship parade in June, folks aren't going to respond. No one's impressed with 'how far they've come' when Orlando's guys are laughing their hindparts off on the sidelines while up 29. No one cares about Josh Smith's improvement when they turn around and see the Big Old Three in Boston playing for titles.

Again, stuff like this makes it real hard to be a Hawks fan. And with a lookout looming next year, they might lose a lot of folks on this board, including this lifelong fan. This time, it might be for good.... :shake_puter: :help wanted:

[thescout5]

Your absolutely right Dejay. The Hawks ownership has already calculated what profit it will get and their answer is why do anything else to take money out of their own pockets. I really get sick of owners who really don't want to win championships.Just put a good enough product on the field to make X amt of dollars and call it a day.

The fans want to win champinships and if you can't do that then sell the @%$%@rickin team. I guess ASG loves knowing they own the Thrashers and Hawks but really don't do enough to energize the fan base to want to sell out the games. Why should we care if ownership doesn't want to win championships? It's the same thing every year seeing the better teams gear up and get the players they need while the Hawks do just enough for their own profit sake. Don't they realize you put more money in more dollars would be generated and who knows maybe this does become a basketball town. Maybe free agents would even take less to come since many athletes live in the Atlanta area instead of going to play ball somewhere else.

Of course ASG would say they resigned JJ and brought Drew in that's enough. Sorry maybe in their world but not the fans world where championships mean everything.

[niremetal]

If anyone wants to know why Philips is only half-full when the Lebrons or Kobe isn't in town, say no more. If anyone wants to know why the locals throw up their hands in frustration, only to turn around and buy a Dwayne Wade jersey, well, as Ryan Cameron would say, NOW YOU KNOW.

And if the Hawks were the only team in Atlanta whose attendance consistently was worse than its place in the standings that would make sense. But they are not. With the exception of a few years for the Falcons during the Vick era, Atlanta sports teams consistently rank lower in attendance than in the standings.

I'm not blaming it all on the fans by any stretch. But the cause and effect definitely runs both ways. Atlanta is a city of transplants who, by and large, grew up elsewhere and don't have any particular loyalty to Atlanta teams. Atlanta also has one of the highest rates of emigration in the country. The people who do grow up here and stay around usually attend local colleges, and have tended historically to focus more on college sports (especially football) than pro sports. That makes it very difficult to cultivate a fan base. My guess is that it'll be 15-20 years before Atlanta develops the kind of city identity that all the "great sports towns" have. Maybe longer. Maybe never. There's a reason why Atlanta is a case study in virtually every class on urban planning and growth.

Edited July 21, 2010 by niremetal

[KB21]

There are several inaccuracies in Jeff's article here. Jeff had been putting out some good stuff, but he is totally inaccurate with this post.

The media has basically put the ASG into a no win situation. They resign Joe Johnson, so the media immediately comes out and says they overpaid to keep him. However, everything that came out of the media prior to that stated that without Joe Johnson, the Hawks were a lottery team. So which is it? Does resigning him show a commitment to winning or doesn't it? It isn't both.

What's ignored in this instance is the fact while Atlanta would have taken a step back without Joe Johnson, it wouldn't have been enough to knock them out of the playoffs. At most, the Hawks would lose 8 wins that they had last season. I don't see the bottom dwellers in the Eastern Conference playoff picture being so much better that a potential 45 win Hawks team built around Josh Smith and Al Horford wouldn't make the playoffs. With that said, resigning him at least maintains the Hawks as is, which is a 53 win team. Yes, they overpaid to keep him, and the Hawks will be trying to move his contract for anything at the end of this deal. It is a myth at this point to think he won't age well. Joe's game is based around his shooting ability, and that's not something that fades as a player ages. He's not like a Dwyane Wade, who will experience a rather sharp decline when that descent into the twilight of his career starts. Joe, at age 35, will still be able to contribute to a team as a spot up jump shooter. Dwyane will be a broken down player who can no longer use his athleticism, and he has no jump shot to fall back on. So, did the Hawks overpay to keep him? Yes, but they did it because they fell into the trap of thinking they couldn't get better without him. It does not scream that they are not committed to winning. If they didn't want to pay the luxury tax, the best way to avoid it would have been to not resign Joe. It's that simple.

As for their lack of moves in free agency to this point, this is mostly because they are limited. After overpaying for Joe, they are actually showing some solid financial conservativism with their decisions. Why should they pay the luxury tax so they can sign a player that is not going to make them much better than they already are?

If the Hawks want to become a legitimate contender, what they need is a player who will give them 8-10 more wins next year, not a damn back up center at the MLE. The ASG and Rick Sund is essentially getting criticized here because that 8-10 win player is not currently available. If the Hawks could get Chris Paul, who would be worth about 14-15 wins, or Danny Granger, who would be worth about 8-9 wins, I'm sure they would do it. If they could do it without giving up a 10 win player in Josh Smith or an 11 win player in Al Horford, then where do we sign?

So, let's say the Hawks overpay to get Shaquille O'Neal by giving him the MLE and end up paying the luxury tax because of that deal. What do the Hawks get out of this deal? They get maybe 2-3 more wins during the 60 games or so that Shaq will actually suit up. So, is becoming a 55 win team really worth paying the luxury tax? The same thing would have applied to Brad Miller, though he would have gotten the Hawks maybe 1-2 more wins instead of 2-3.

I also have news for Jeff Shultz and the rest of you. Even if the Hawks had let Joe walk, they still wouldn't have been able to aggressively go after free agents. They still would have not had any cap room and would have been armed with only the MLE and the BLE, and history has shown us that players who have been signed to contracts longer than 3 years at the MLE salary have been abject failures. Very few players have actually been good signings at the MLE. There hasn't been a good MLE signing since Detroit, with that Bob Davidson model, signed Chauncey Billups back in 2000 or 2001.

The bottom line is this though. Free agency is fools gold. Great teams are built through the draft, and free agency is used only as a means of augmenting what teams have drafted. The Hawks are not a championship team not because they aren't pursuing the best free agents, but because they blew their chances to get franchise players in the draft. Drafting Chris Paul in 2005 would have changed everything. Just that one pick would have made the Hawks a championship contender. There isn't a free agent that the Hawks could legitimately sign that would make them better than what drafting Chris Paul from the very beginning would have made them.

[Dejay]

The bottom line is this though. Free agency is fools gold. Great teams are built through the draft, and free agency is used only as a means of augmenting what teams have drafted. The Hawks are not a championship team not because they aren't pursuing the best free agents, but because they blew their chances to get franchise players in the draft. Drafting Chris Paul in 2005 would have changed everything. Just that one pick would have made the Hawks a championship contender. There isn't a free agent that the Hawks could legitimately sign that would make them better than what drafting Chris Paul from the very beginning would have made them.

This....

I know its beating a dead horse but its worth bringing up (again). They blew their shot to become a potentially great team when their idiotic GM decided that a six-man with 'potential' was a better choice than two All-World point guards, especially when Tyronn Lue and Anthony Johnson were the returning guys at the position. While we're hoping/dreaming/praying/wishing that Marvin puts up 13/6, CP3 and Deron are getting invites to the All-Star game and FIBA World Championships. I'll argue all day long that had BK gotten that one right, the conversation of empties at Philips wouldn't occur; we'd have our superstar in place. I'll argue even more that we'd be in much better position. Again, imagine what this team would've been had CP3, Al Jefferson, and Rudy Gay had been here. Sure we wouldn't have Horford but all of the resources that was eventually spent on bringing in Claxton, Bibby, Law, Johnson, Teague, and resigning Bibby could've been re-routed to getting the help for Jefferson and Smith. There's your answer to the Brand New Heavies in Miami. There's your answer to Dwight and the gang in Orlando. There's your answer to what the Big Three in Boston, as well as the improving Bucks and Bulls. But alas, we're left having to figure out if Marvin will ever do anything beyond being a Derrick McKey clone. I wouldn't hold my breath.

Again, BK has done almost as much damage to this team as the A.S.G. has in court and in the minds of Atlanta sports fans.

[thescout5]

What's done is done we can't go back and change the past, KB21 why do you feel that a guy like Shaq can't help the Hawks even at the price he wants? I mean the Hawks could trade Marvin and use his salary for 1 yr of Shaq and then the next year find a small forward or even this year who could outperform Marvin at a much lower salary.

What if shaq comes in great shape and actually wants to prove a point to all the teams who didn't want him? Right now the Hawks only need part time minutes but what if he was in shape and performed way better than many expected. I'm willing to take that chance since it's better than the alternative of practically staying pat and hoping that Drew's coaching style will some how make the difference in beating the better teams in the league when it matters.

Better to have an overload of talent than not enough and being heisted by other teams knowing you need a BIG. It would also create some excitement as opposed to now all the Hawks have done is resign JJ who's been a castastrophe in the playoffs.