Our Underrated Big Man

[lethalweapon3]

ESPN Insider Link

Aside: Are people really paying $3.33 a month for this stuff? I just can't see why.

According to the latest All-Star ballot update, Atlanta Hawks big man Al Horford received less than 200,000 votes, which ranks fifth among centers in the Eastern Conference and 12th if you include the Western Conference lot at the position. Even Dallas backup center Brendan Haywood, he of 4.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, has garnered more love from fans.

That's a shame because, outside of Dwight Howard, there may not be a more complete center in today's game than Horford. Speaking before Tuesday's game against Miami, Horford said he knows he won't surpass Howard in the fan vote, but the former Florida Gators' forward hopes the coaches give him the nod to play in Los Angeles in February.

"It'd mean a lot," Horford said. "I've put in the work and put myself in the position, I feel, to be able to make the All-Star team. That would be special. All I can do is keep playing."

To read why Tom Haberstroh believes Al Horford is the most underrated big man in the league, including one situation in which he's actually a better shooter than Dirk Nowitzki, you must be an ESPN Insider

http://hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx (I'm guessing the situation is the old 16-to-23-footer?)

~lw3

[AHF]

Skill-wise, Horford has no problems starting out on the perimeter from the triple-threat position and crossing up his defender off the dribble en route to the basket. According to Synergy data, 70 players in the league -- big and small -- have made at least 70 isolation plays this season. Take a guess how many of those players have a higher efficiency than Horford's 1.1 points per isolation play. Three -- Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Martin and Chauncey Billups. That's it.

Horford is an absolute nightmare for opposing big men to defend out on the perimeter because he can blow by if them if they play too close. But play too far off and he'll happily drill a jumper. So far this season, Horford has nailed 58 percent of his long-2-point attempts (from 16-23 feet) this season, which is hands-down the best conversion rate in the league, according to Hoopdata.com. Nowitzki? 53 percent. Kevin Garnett? 48 percent. Kevin Durant? 41 percent. Horford has them all beat.

The economic way to get insider is to get a seriously discounted subscription to ESPN, the Magazine. You can get that for $5 or less (last year I paid $3) for an entire year when it is on sale.

[capstone21]

The economic way to get insider is to get a seriously discounted subscription to ESPN, the Magazine. You can get that for $5 or less (last year I paid $3) for an entire year when it is on sale.

I am so glad we didn't win the Greg Oden sweepstakes!

We would not have taken Durant at 1 either if we had won the lottery.

[Joker]

I am so glad we didn't win the Greg Oden sweepstakes!

We would not have taken Durant at 1 either if we had won the lottery.

That would understandable for us. We had Marvin who was just drafted, Smoove, Chillz and Joe. With all these swingmans, it's made a lot of sense to get Oden. Who knows, Oden could have been healthy for us and became an all time great.

[JackB1]

Can someone copy and paste the complete text for us poor souls that don't have Insider? :)

[sasuke]

What is even more sad is that his own fans are always complaining of him not being a true 5, when at least to me, he has done an awesome job on the position. For a motion offense his size is exactly what we need.

[TheTruth]

What is even more sad is that his own fans are always complaining of him not being a true 5, when at least to me, he has done an awesome job on the position. For a motion offense his size is exactly what we need.

Horford is a great 5. The days of the legit 7 foot Center are firmly in the rear view mirror. However, the switch has been to more athletic and LONG guys (Noah, Howard, Bogut, et al).

Horford isn't long, and he oftentimes has issues guarding bigger guys than him (although his offense has improved against them by taking them off the dribble more, his defense against them does suffer a bit). Although he is a legit Center, we need a bigger backup big man who can matchup with those bigger guys. Someone NOT named Collins and Zaza.

[benhillboy]

Its funny how everyone is jumping on the Al bandwagon these days. It was clearly evident, to me at least, around mid-December of his rookie year that he wasn't your ordinary Hawks draftee. He had already thoroughly outplayed Miami's Shaq and Alonzo combo, Toronto's Bargnani and Bosh combo, and the Indiana Jermaine ONeal a couple of times I believe. The thing about him, even as a young'n, his great individual performances routinely translate to team wins. What other modern rookie big man other than Dwight could average a double double in 7 games against the eventual World Champs? And I also dont understand the big fuss over his jumper like it's part if his foundation. Al is a floor runner, vocal and example leader, and post defender in essence, everything else is secondary. It gives the impression to those who dont know him that he's a "jump-shooting big man," ie "soft", which couldn't be further from the truth. I'm sure he'll add something totally unexpected to his game next year. I'd expect nothing less from the Boss.

As far as the All-Star selection, eh. I would hope the coaches can use their brainpower to offset the millions of uninformed voters. Wally Scerbiak, Ben Wallace, Brad Miller, and Mo Williams who is half the player Jason Terry is, have all made the team, with players like Yao, A.I., and Shaq always getting popularity votes with their faces on milk cartons. That pretty much renders it meaningless to me, but of course Al cares because when his max contract comes around that the Hawks won't be able to afford, A.S. appearances factor heavily.

Edited January 19, 2011 by benhillboy

[exodus]

Horford is an absolute nightmare for opposing big men to defend out on the perimeter because he can blow by if them if they play too close. But play too far off and he'll happily drill a jumper.

He can blow by them but doesn't do it very often. He still seems hesitant to attack the basket. I think the next step for him is to take it to the rim and get to the foul line more often. He only takes 2.6 foul shots per game.

Last night there were times when he held the ball in an isolation for several seconds before trying to do anything. I kept thinking just go go go.

Shooting over 50% from 16-23 feet is pretty unbelievable for a big man. As far as the All-Star team goes if they count Amare as a center it could be tough for Al to make it.

Its funny how everyone is jumping on the Al bandwagon these days. It was clearly evident, to me at least, around mid-December of his rookie year that he wasn't your ordinary Hawks draftee. He had already thoroughly outplayed Miami's Shaq and Alonzo combo, Toronto's Bargnani and Bosh combo, and the Indiana Jermaine ONeal a couple of times I believe. The thing about him, even as a young'n, his great individual performances routinely translate to team wins. What other modern rookie big man other than Dwight could average a double double in 7 games against the eventual World Champs? And I also dont understand the big fuss over his jumper like it's part if his foundation. Al is a floor runner and post defender in essence, everything else is secondary. It gives the impression to those who dont know him that he's a "jump-shooting big man," ie "soft", which couldn't be further from the truth. I'm sure he'll add something totally unexpected to his game next year. I'd expect nothing less from the Boss.

LOL please. Horford was a wreck on offense in his rookie year, especially early. He would be left wide open from 15 feet all the time but was afraid to shoot. In the post he would try so hard to back guys down without luck and he would either turn it over or throw up a brick. It was ugly. He sucked on offense in his second season too. It wasn't until last year that he made any noticable strides on offense.

[jerrywest]

As far as the All-Star team goes if they count Amare as a center it could be tough for Al to make it.

Amare is 2nd among forwards in All star voting. Even if Amare was the 2nd center, Al still would have made it over Bosh/Boozer/Josh.

[Admin]

Can someone copy and paste the complete text for us poor souls that don't have Insider? :)

The Hawks' talented young center has them still in the running for a top-four seed

Al Horford's superior handle and solid jumper make him a nightmare to guard.According to the latest All-Star ballot update, Atlanta Hawks big man Al Horford received less than 200,000 votes, which ranks fifth among centers in the Eastern Conference and 12th if you include the Western Conference lot at the position. Even Dallas backup center Brendan Haywood, he of 4.1 points and 5.1 rebounds per game, has garnered more love from fans.

That's a shame because, outside of Dwight Howard, there may not be a more complete center in today's game than Horford. Speaking before Tuesday's game against Miami, Horford said he knows he won't surpass Howard in the fan vote, but the former Florida Gators' forward hopes the coaches give him the nod to play in Los Angeles in February.

"It'd mean a lot," Horford said. "I've put in the work and put myself in the position, I feel, to be able to make the All-Star team. That would be special. All I can do is keep playing."

In his fourth season in the league, the 24-year-old Horford is currently averaging 16.2 points, 9.7 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game, while shooting 57 percent from the field. Put it all together and we find that his 22.6 Player Efficiency Rating (PER) ranks second among qualified centers, not to mention outpaces every Hawks player by a wide margin.

So if you're searching for explanations as to why Atlanta, at 28-15, is still chasing a top-four seed in the East, you might want to start with the unheralded big man. The Hawks played nine games in December without go-to scorer Joe Johnson, but they stayed afloat with a 5-4 record, thanks to Horford taking on a bigger role on offense and averaging a double-double in Johnson's absence.

While Horford has seen more touches this season under new head coach Larry Drew, it's puzzling why he doesn't get even more. Horford's usage rate -- the estimated percentage of team possessions used by a particular player while on the floor -- has climbed from 17.6 percent in 2009-10 to 20.4 percent this season, which is a welcomed boost but still not commensurate with his scoring talents. He's still very much a fourth option on offense, and there's good reason why he demands a higher spot in the pecking order.

Seventy players in the league -- big and small -- have made at least 70 isolation plays this season. Take a guess how many of those players have a higher efficiency than Horford's 1.1 points per isolation play. Three -- Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Martin and Chauncey Billups. That's it.

Normally when a player shoulders more scoring responsibility, we tend to see his shooting numbers dive in the opposite direction. But not Horford. In fact, the big man's efficiency has improved with more touches this season, as his field goal percentage has risen from 55.1 percent to 56.6 percent. Not only that, he's cut down on his turnovers, too.

If you watch Horford play, you can see why he's able to maintain his lofty efficiency. What sets Horford apart from other league big men is his rare ability to put the ball on the floor and create offense away from the block. That diversifies his attack and keeps the defense guessing. Skill-wise, Horford has no problems starting out on the perimeter from the triple-threat position and crossing up his defender off the dribble en route to the basket. According to Synergy data, 70 players in the league -- big and small -- have made at least 70 isolation plays this season. Take a guess how many of those players have a higher efficiency than Horford's 1.1 points per isolation play. Three -- Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Martin and Chauncey Billups. That's it.

Horford is an absolute nightmare for opposing big men to defend out on the perimeter because he can blow by if them if they play too close. But play too far off and he'll happily drill a jumper. So far this season, Horford has nailed 58 percent of his long-2-point attempts (from 16-23 feet) this season, which is hands-down the best conversion rate in the league, according to Hoopdata.com. Nowitzki? 53 percent. Kevin Garnett? 48 percent. Kevin Durant? 41 percent. Horford has them all beat.

"I just worked a lot in the offseason," Horford said about his jumper. "A lot of people are not necessarily acknowledging that part of my game, so they're letting me shoot the ball. I've been working on that and I feel more confident."

But despite his scoring talents, Horford doesn't just create for himself; the big man can pass, too. Double team him in the post and he'll dish out to Mike Bibby or Johnson spotting up on the perimeter. After dropping eight dimes against the Houston Rockets on Saturday, Horford followed up with another six assists against the Sacramento Kings on Monday night. How many turnovers in those two games? Just two.

Horford believes a late growth spurt has something to do with his ability to make those types of plays. He grew up playing the 2 and 3, which enabled him to build ballhandling skills long before he became a big man. He also credits his collegiate experience at Florida, where he won two straight national championships alongside fellow NBA players Joakim Noah and Corey Brewer.

"[Florida] coach [billy]Donovan gave us a lot of freedom once we got the rebound on the defensive end to bring the ball down, and our shooters would spot up for 3s," Horford said. "I came here, and in my rookie year [former Hawks] coach [Mike] Woodson would let me play, and this has been a carry over for me."

Perhaps the most impressive aspect about Horford's game is that he's displaying All-Star-caliber basketball, despite playing the majority of the time out of position.

"I still consider myself a forward," Horford said. "I just have to play the center here. We have Josh [smith], and he does a good job playing the 4. And I don't mind playing the 5."

The 24-year-old stands 6 feet, 10 inches tall and plays predominantly against the league's biggest players. But despite the size disadvantage, Horford has managed to be a top-10 rebounder for the second straight season.

All things considered, there's not much Horford can't do out on the court. The disparity between his actual value and fan voting places him among the most underrated players in the NBA. If the coaches select him to the All-Star game as a reserve, he may not go under the radar much longer.

[benhillboy]

He can blow by them but doesn't do it very often. He still seems hesitant to attack the basket. I think the next step for him is to take it to the rim and get to the foul line more often. He only takes 2.6 foul shots per game.

Last night there were times when he held the ball in an isolation for several seconds before trying to do anything. I kept thinking just go go go.

Shooting over 50% from 16-23 feet is pretty unbelievable for a big man. As far as the All-Star team goes if they count Amare as a center it could be tough for Al to make it.

LOL please. Horford was a wreck on offense in his rookie year, especially early. He would be left wide open from 15 feet all the time but was afraid to shoot. In the post he would try so hard to back guys down without luck and he would either turn it over or throw up a brick. It was ugly. He sucked on offense in his second season too. It wasn't until last year that he made any noticable strides on offense.

Offensive prowess doesn't win games Ex, or have you been watching the NBA for the past 20 something years? If it did, Mike DAntoni and Don Nelson would have several rings this millenium. But I wouldn't expect Joe Defenders to understand intangibles and leadership qualities, laughing out louder.

Edited January 19, 2011 by benhillboy

[ATownWhatup]

Horford was quickly picked by many fans as a top-5 pick in the draft.[4] On June 28, 2007, he was selected 3rd overall by Atlanta Hawks in the 2007 NBA Draft.[5]

On February 16, 2008, Horford played in the NBA All-Star Rookie Challenge. He had 19 points and 7 rebounds as the rookies were defeated by the sophomores.[6]

During his 2007–2008 rookie season, Horford was honored as Rookie of the Month on four separate occasions: November, February, March and April.[7]

Horford ranked first among rookies in double doubles (25), as well as rebounds (9.7 per game), which was 13th among all NBA players. Among first-year players, Horford also finished sixth in scoring (10.1 ppg).

On May 1, 2008, he finished second in voting to the Seattle SuperSonics' Kevin Durant for Rookie of the Year.

On May 13, 2008, he was the only unanimous selection to the 2008 Rookie First Team.[8]

During the 2007–2008 playoffs Horford managed 12.6 PPG, 10.4 RPG and 1.0 BPG.

On January 28, 2010, Horford was named as a 2010 All-Star Game reserve.

(Stats according to wiki)

I think this speaks for itself. He is one of the great centers out there and i hope he is not discouraged by this. He is still young and has much more to come. I am confident in him and im very happy that he is on our team!

[exodus]

Offensive prowess doesn't win games Ex, or have you been watching the NBA for the past 20 something years? If it did, Mike DAntoni and Don Nelson would have several rings this millenium. But I wouldn't expect Joe Defenders to understand intangibles and leadership qualities, laughing out louder.

WTF

So Jordan's Bulls weren't a strong offensive team? the Shaq and Kobe Lakers didn't have offensive prowess?

Last years champion Lakers are currently 2nd in offensive efficiency. San Antonio is 1st. When the Spurs won their last title they were 5th in offensive efficiency.

When Miami won their title they were 17th in defensive efficiency.

Let's not pretend like Horford is a lockdown defender either. Howard and Lopez say hi. I would say Horford is a good defender as long as he isn't outsized significantly but he isn't Tim Duncan.

Edited January 20, 2011 by exodus

[Atlantaholic]

Shooting over 50% from 16-23 feet is pretty unbelievable for a big man. As far as the All-Star team goes if they count Amare as a center it could be tough for Al to make it.

He is shooting 57% from 16-23 feet which is unbelievable for any player in any position. I'd wager a hefty sum it is by far the best percentage in the NBA this season, and if he finishes the year with that percentage I wouldn't be surprised if it ranked amongst the top all time.

For reference here are some of the best mid range shooters in the game and their % from 16-23:

Durant: 41%

Amare: 41%

Kobe:40%

Eric Gordon: 45%

Nowitski: 53% (His career high)

Bargnani: 46%

Deron Williams: 46%

Paul Pierce: 41%.

Since 2007 out of all these players there is only one (Nowitski) who has shot over 50% from 16-23 in any season of his career (2007 and this year). Amazing.

Edited January 20, 2011 by Atlantaholic

[exodus]

He is shooting 57% from 16-23 feet which is unbelievable for any player in any position. I'd wager a hefty sum it is by far the best percentage in the NBA this season, and if he finishes the year with that percentage I wouldn't be surprised if it ranked amongst the top all time.

For reference here are some of the best mid range shooters in the game and their % from 16-23:

Durant: 41%

Amare: 41%

Kobe:40%

Eric Gordon: 45%

Nowitski: 53% (His career high)

Bargnani: 46%

Deron Williams: 46%

Paul Pierce: 41%.

Since 2007 out of all these players there is only one (Nowitski) who has shot over 50% from 16-23 in any season of his career (2007 and this year). Amazing.

Nobody who takes a reasonable number of attempts in that area shoots them better than Horford. I am still in disbelief at how effective he has become in that range.

http://hoopdata.com/shotstats.aspx