Hawks' impending fall

[HawkItus]

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The passing of a wild All-Star weekend means we have digested, barfed up and re-digested most of the key storylines that will define the last 30 games of the regular season: the trade deadline, from ‘Melo to (Troy) Murphy, and all its implications; whether the looming lockout has made teams gun-shy; the recent struggles of the Lakers; what is shaping up to be a dynamite six-team playoff race in the bottom half of the Western Conference; the return of Roddy Buckets; the rise of the Bulls; and many, many more.

But here’s one underplayed storyline I’m very curious about: We’re about to learn a lot about the Atlanta Hawks, and what we learn could have a significant impact on the future of the franchise and the Eastern Conference.

On the surface, the Hawks are having a fine season. They’re 34-21, tied with the powerful Magic in the loss column and on pace for 51 wins, just two fewer than last season. They’ve played more road games than home, and their 17-12 road record is one of the best in the league — typically a predictor of good things in the playoffs. Watch any Atlanta game, and you’re almost certain to hear the opponents’ announce team describe the Hawks as some sort of forgotten contender.

But peel away the surface gloss, and this looks like a mediocre team masquerading as an interesting playoff club, and there’s a good chance we’re about to see the Hawks tumble toward a win total in the mid-to-high 40s and first-round exit. The bad news starts with this: Atlanta ranks 15th in points per possession and 13th in points allowed per possession, just a tick above league average in both categories. That marks them as an average club, and its statistical profile suggests it should be something like 30-25, according to Basketball-Reference.

Even worse: Atlanta has managed this against what has been the easiest schedule in the league by a wide margin. That is going to change, immediately. Its remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of about .550, giving Atlanta by far the hardest schedule among Eastern Conference teams. The Hawks follow the All-Star break with a five-game West Coast road swing that includes four games against playoff contenders. They still face the Lakers, Blazers, Heat and Nuggets twice each, and they have three games left against a Chicago team that should have both Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer in tow.

And if you watch the Hawks, you know this team has not solved any of its foundational problems, despite all the early praise for coach Larry Drew’s decision to ditch the Iso-Joe offense that bogged down so often against elite teams. Things started well on that end, with the Hawks scoring more efficiently and getting to the line more often — the latter an expected result of a motion offense designed to get defenders on their heels.

Now? Only four teams get to the line less often, per shot attempt, and the Hawks’ offensive rebounding — once a key strength — has vanished. They still isolate too much, and they fare poorly when they do; only six teams score fewer points per possession on isolation plays, according to the stat-tracking service Synergy Sports. They still don’t use Al Horford enough, and they still take far too many long two-point jumpers; only the Wizards, Heat and Bulls attempt more, according to Hoopdata. Atlanta is an efficient transition team, but it continues to play at one of the slowest paces in the league.

The defense has been solid, but suffers from the same fundamental problems that have bubbled up for years. Mike Bibby can’t defend point guards, forcing Drew to scramble for solutions to what is really an intractable issue. He’ll order the Hawks to switch on pick-and-rolls, a classic Hawks strategy that was supposed to be a bugaboo this season. He’ll use Joe Johnson on point guards for extended stretches and hide Bibby elsewhere, but teams with good balance will find a way to exploit the mismatches that move creates. When that blows up, Drew will go to a zone defense that has been inconsistent on good nights and awful on bad ones. The Hawks lean on Bibby for shooting and Jamal Crawford for scoring, and it’s just hard to play good defense with both of those guys on the floor.

The Johnson-Josh Smith-Horford foundation is solid, and this team can play with anyone on a night when everything is clicking. But the bigger picture is one of mediocrity and points strongly toward a poor last 30 games and a first-round loss to the Magic — the same team that demolished the Hawks last season by 25 points per game in a four-game humiliation. The Hawks have won two of their three games against the Magic this season, and Drew’s decision to start Jason Collins at center as a counter to Dwight Howard has appeared to bother Orlando. But Atlanta fans who point to those two games as a playoff harbinger are getting carried away. History suggests that regular-season head-to-head matchups mean little in the postseason. Also: One of Atlanta’s wins came before Orlando’s big trades and the other in the Magic’s first game with Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu.

You’ll recall that Orlando’s destruction of the Hawks came in the second round last season. Ditto with Cleveland’s 2009 sweep of the Hawks, in which the Cavs won every game by double digits. A first-round loss and, say, 48 wins would be a huge step back for a franchise that has talked about moving forward in its development.

And such a step back could result in the jettisoning of multiple players once thought to be franchise cornerstones. The Hawks are on the hook for between $31 and $35 million combined to Horford and Johnson every year through the 2015-16 season. Barring some sort of amnesty or salary rollbacks in the new collective bargaining agreement, they’re going to be totally capped out until after the 2012-13 season, when deals for Zaza Pachulia and Smith expire. Marvin Williams is scheduled to earn about $8 million per year through 2013-14.

This does not look good for the Hawks, obviously. They can either ride with this group through 2013 even though they don’t appear to be anywhere close to contending, or they can try to move long-term money soon in an attempt to free up some cap space earlier. They’re reportedly open to moving Williams now, and though he hasn’t produced at a level that matches his salary (or draft status — sorry, Hawks fans), he feels like a guy who will produce as an important role player on a good team. And everyone around the league is waiting for Atlanta to seriously dangle Smith, a move that would make me sad, since Smith, having just turned 25, should be a franchise keeper and not someone you deal because you badly overpaid Johnson.

The worst thing: Even if the Hawks manage to move one of these guys, they still may not be able to do much on the free-agent market until 2013 — particularly if the new CBA includes a reduced salary cap.

Maybe this team will prove the math wrong over the next two or three months. Maybe it will come together, rise to the level of its competition and at least push its first-round opponent to six or seven games. Maybe it’ll even advance to the conference semifinals again.

But I wouldn’t bet on it.

This is why I hate the new stat junkies in basketball. Who could honestly say 48 wins this year would be failure. Yes it is a drop off form last year, but we've had more injuries. This guy seems to really hate the JJ deal. He brings it up in almost every post he makes about the Hawks.

Edited February 21, 2011 by sultanofatl

[Joker]

The Hawks should trade everyone expect for Joe and Horford for exp. F**k this core. You have two guys who you can build around. Trade the rest. Is there a team that would take Zaza off the books, he's the only one that contract might be an issue trying to trade next season. I am not going to watch this team from here on out. I got legit info today that the Hawks aren't trading no one except for Marvin. You can forget about the other rumors, they aren't happening at least from what he said. They might as well. See if they can trade for Deron(not likely at all) or just trade Josh Smith to a scrub team for a lot of picks and an exp in 2012. The owners are jackasses. They want to wait and set up shop in 2012 with the new CBA. They aren't gonna contend. It was silly thinking they might want to contend, very silly. These guys are the Al Davis of the NBA. Donald Sterling gets hate for being cheap. The Hawks are cheap and extremely stupid. I am done with these clowns.

Edited February 21, 2011 by nbasuperstar40

[tonegully]

Nbasuperstar, I dont know much about the ins and outs of the CBA. So my question would be, what would be the reason the ASG would wait until 2012 to make a move. Im not a business man either but would just standing pact be a waste of money? Paying Al, JJ and Smoove that money and not getting a good return off of them to me is a waste of money. JJ still gonna get 20+ million in 2012 and just be older so its not like we would be able to move him. I dont know just SMH at this ownership group who has the talent to build a contending team but would rather save a couple of bucks instead.

[GameTime]

If we don't do a trade I can easily see us move down to a 7th seed. Our schedule is killer, Philly is on fire and New York (with Melo) is gonna be better than us.

[Buzzard]

The bad news starts with this: Atlanta ranks 15th in points per possession and 13th in points allowed per possession, just a tick above league average in both categories. That marks them as an average club, and its statistical profile suggests it should be something like 30-25, according to Basketball-Reference.

Without looking it up I would have to say this is incorrect. Most average to borderline bad teams are probably a lot worse in one or the other. I do have to agree with him that Crawford and Bibby on the court is atrocious for our defense and we do have a brutal remaining schedule. But at least we have gotten a lot of road games out of the way; now we just need to start playing better at home. We have some holes and other teams are getting better behind us; so making a move soon is needed to keep up with the rest of the leagues improving teams.

[Superiorblogman]

Rick Sund is stilling looking for a David and Goliath type miracle instead of being creative enough to get us a Devin Harris, Granger, Bogut type guy. It does not take a genius to see that you are gonna have to take back a bad contract and throw a 1st round pick or two into play to get another real piece. I don't think that we necessarily have to give up Josh, Al, or Joe. I really think we could take back Travis Outlaw's horrible contract and get Devin Harris. Might take dealing Teague or one of the Crawford's along with Marvin and Zaza, might even take atleast 1 first round pick but I think it's doable. Sund, the guy that supposedly does not even use the internet needs to stop living in a fantasy land. Challenging the players is not going to make Bibby get quicker or Al grow longer.

[Plainview1981]

This team feels as finished and as hopeless as the Babcock teams.

[Buzzard]

This team feels as finished and as hopeless as the Babcock teams.

If it was not for Al Horford and JJ I would agree with you. But both of those players are much better overall than the so called saving duo of JT and Shareef. Put some balanced players around JJ and Horf and you have solid D. Cannot say the same about JT and Shareef and that is the difference.

[APE]

Cenk Akyol and Flip Murray play for the same team.

[Plainview1981]

If it was not for Al Horford and JJ I would agree with you. But both of those players are much better overall than the so called saving duo of JT and Shareef. Put some balanced players around JJ and Horf and you have solid D. Cannot say the same about JT and Shareef and that is the difference.

I'm talking about the late 90's teams. Despite decent record they were irrelevant and they're in the SAME situation right now. The winning team that nobody takes seriously.

[Sothron]

The Hawks should trade everyone expect for Joe and Horford for exp. F**k this core. You have two guys who you can build around. Trade the rest. Is there a team that would take Zaza off the books, he's the only one that contract might be an issue trying to trade next season. I am not going to watch this team from here on out. I got legit info today that the Hawks aren't trading no one except for Marvin. You can forget about the other rumors, they aren't happening at least from what he said. They might as well. See if they can trade for Deron(not likely at all) or just trade Josh Smith to a scrub team for a lot of picks and an exp in 2012. The owners are jackasses. They want to wait and set up shop in 2012 with the new CBA. They aren't gonna contend. It was silly thinking they might want to contend, very silly. These guys are the Al Davis of the NBA. Donald Sterling gets hate for being cheap. The Hawks are cheap and extremely stupid. I am done with these clowns.

If this happens then we're just first round fodder yet again. We need a significant upgrade at PG and we still have a weakness of big men at center. If they just sit on their hands we're done for.

[Wretch]

It's time for changes. You don't get swept 2 years in a row and bring back essentially the same team and same coaching staff. Our team may surprise. I'm hoping for a strong 2nd half. But if we're going to get serious about winning, then we have to make moves that say we're serious. If this group of owners/management is too cheap or too timid to make those moves...then they need to step away from the team and let someone else do it. Honestly, I think that's the only thing that's going to make a difference.

[Buzzard]

It's time for changes. You don't get swept 2 years in a row and bring back essentially the same team and same coaching staff. Our team may surprise. I'm hoping for a strong 2nd half. But if we're going to get serious about winning, then we have to make moves that say we're serious. If this group of owners/management is too cheap or too timid to make those moves...then they need to step away from the team and let someone else do it. Honestly, I think that's the only thing that's going to make a difference.

I do not see them going into the luxury tax for players like Session, Harris, or Brooks. Maybe a real center like Nene but all reports are Houston is getting him if he is moved at all. They really do need to make a move and get us another PG if those three are available as being reported; and a deal that keeps us under the luxury thresh hold this season should also be doable. If all three end up with different teams and one of them is not us, I will be pissed.

[Joker]

Nbasuperstar, I dont know much about the ins and outs of the CBA. So my question would be, what would be the reason the ASG would wait until 2012 to make a move. Im not a business man either but would just standing pact be a waste of money? Paying Al, JJ and Smoove that money and not getting a good return off of them to me is a waste of money. JJ still gonna get 20+ million in 2012 and just be older so its not like we would be able to move him. I dont know just SMH at this ownership group who has the talent to build a contending team but would rather save a couple of bucks instead.

I was speaking on my end what they should do next season. But I don't know or even care what they do anymore. They really don't care. They just don't. Joe probably won't be traded because it's unlikely you will get .10 on a dollar for him. You would have to eat up someone bad contact and get a terrible expiring for an All Star who's impact level is like Pau Gasol in Joe. He's not worth trading for that little. Al Horford value is top notch, no need to trade him unless it's for Dwight which isn't happening. Trading Smith in a package with Zaza for exp and picks make sense. As is getting rid of everyone else and going for broke for Deron, CP3, or Dwight which is unlikely as well.

These owners are truly the worst in sports. People like to trash Donald Sterling who is a buffoon but he does make a profit and quickly abandon a team that doesn't show championship qualities. People trash Jim Dolan who is a wealthy nut but he's makes profit and is in a very attractive market which draws the top prospects in the league. The Hawks owners are true idiots. Cheap. Dumb. Idiots. No hope for now. No hope for the future. No hope for whenever. I should have been smart and join a bandwagon team when I was a kid but I stuck with the trash *ss home team. The Hawks are losers. That's what everyone thinks who uses logic when it comes to them. The normal people don't even think about them as they aren't relevant. I am going to be a Knicks, Bulls, whoever I feel like fan from here on out. This organization is useless. Worst than Al Davis Raiders who at least tasted winning and knows how it feels like. We haven't been to the conference finals since 1970 and don't plan on going anytime soon. I wish you guys would do like me and just leave and never watch, attend, and buy anything Hawks related again. They just don't care.

Edited February 21, 2011 by nbasuperstar40

[MaceCase]

David Stern: With the 16th pick in the 2011 NBA draft...the Atlanta Hawks select Mutala Mohammed Abdullah John Marcus Wattala bin Al Saheed Ibaka..... Forward, from Ethiopia.

Fran Fraschilla: I have no idea where the hell the Hawks keep finding these guys.

[Joker]

David Stern: With the 16th pick in the 2011 NBA draft...the Atlanta Hawks select Mutala Mohammed Abdullah John Marcus Wattala bin Al Saheed Ibaka..... Forward, from Ethiopia.

Fran Fraschilla: I have no idea where the hell the Hawks keep finding these guys.

youtube

[Wretch]

David Stern: With the 16th pick in the 2011 NBA draft...the Atlanta Hawks select Mutala Mohammed Abdullah John Marcus Wattala bin Al Saheed Ibaka..... Forward, from Ethiopia.

Fran Fraschilla: I have no idea where the hell the Hawks keep finding these guys.

And we're getting word now that the Hawks are NOT intending to keep this pick. Reports are that they intend to sell this pick to....

[Jody23]

The Hawks should trade everyone expect for Joe and Horford for exp. F**k this core. You have two guys who you can build around. Trade the rest. Is there a team that would take Zaza off the books, he's the only one that contract might be an issue trying to trade next season. I am not going to watch this team from here on out. I got legit info today that the Hawks aren't trading no one except for Marvin. You can forget about the other rumors, they aren't happening at least from what he said. They might as well. See if they can trade for Deron(not likely at all) or just trade Josh Smith to a scrub team for a lot of picks and an exp in 2012. The owners are jackasses. They want to wait and set up shop in 2012 with the new CBA. They aren't gonna contend. It was silly thinking they might want to contend, very silly. These guys are the Al Davis of the NBA. Donald Sterling gets hate for being cheap. The Hawks are cheap and extremely stupid. I am done with these clowns.

So, according to your source, they are trying to trade Marvin before the deadline?

[Buzzard]

So, according to your source, they are trying to trade Marvin before the deadline?

Do not know if that is his source but that is the one constant trade rumor going. That and we inquired about Sessions.

[Joker]

So, according to your source, they are trying to trade Marvin before the deadline?

Yep.