Insider Article about trading Josh Smith

[capstone21]

Personally I would love the Indiana package that ESPN proposes

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8398556/nba-which-teams-trade-atlanta-hawks-forward-josh-smith

Pack your bags, Josh Smith

Indiana, Toronto among good trade fits for Atlanta's enigmatic power forward

Updated: September 19, 2012, 1:30 PM ETBy Joe Kaiser | ESPN Insider

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Grant Halverson/Getty ImagesSmith had a great 2011-12, but he is an unrestricted free agent after this season.{C}

It took Danny Ferry exactly seven days in his new role as the Atlanta Hawks' president of basketball operations and general manager to completely change the face of the franchise.

His ability to swiftly orchestrate separate deals to part with high-priced veterans Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams signaled a commitment to rebuilding and shed as much as $77 million still owed to the two veterans beyond next season.

Fast-forward two-and-a-half months to today, and Ferry's rebuilt roster has only a handful of contracts that go beyond the 2012-13 season:

• Al Horford: Signed through 2015-16.

• Lou Williams: Signed through 2013-14.

• John Jenkins: 2012 first-round pick.

• Mike Scott: 2012 second-round pick.

• Jeff Teague: Due to become a restricted free agent at season's end, barring an extension.

Notice one big name we didn't mention: Josh Smith.

The tantalizingly talented, yet often frustrating, forward is among the many Hawks entering the final year of their deals, and he represents arguably the biggest challenge for Ferry to date: what to do with Smith.

If handled correctly, this could be the next step toward eventually turning the Hawks into a perennial playoff contender. Mishandled, and this could undo everything good that came out of the trades of Johnson and Williams.

So the question is, what's the smarter move for Ferry and the Hawks?

a) Negotiate an extension that will keep Smith in Atlanta for the long term.

b) Peddle him to a contender seeking one final piece for a shot at the title.

Let's delve into that.

Smith, 26, is due $13.2 million this season and is coming off a season in which he established personal highs in both points (18.8) and rebounds (9.6). Even though these numbers coincided with Horford being limited to 11 regular-season games due to a shoulder injury, naturally inflating Smith's numbers, Ferry made it clear in an interview with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution over the summer that he likes what Smith has to offer.

"He's a really good player," Ferry told the newspaper. "I love his ability to pass the ball. I love his ability to make game-changing plays defensively. I love his competitiveness. If I was out there playing, I would want Josh on my team."

Last season, Smith's 21.16 PER ranked him No. 8 among all power forwards who played a minimum of 40 games and averaged at least 30 minutes, putting him right ahead of Pau Gasol, Kevin Garnett, David Lee and Chris Bosh.

According to stat projections by Kevin Pelton and Bradford Doolittle of Basketball Prospectus, Smith is expected to average 17.3 points and 9.1 rebounds in 2012-13. Yes, those numbers would be down from what Smith did last season, but they'd still represent Smith's second-best season in terms of both points and rebounds.

Using Synergy Sports Technology to look deeper at the stats, it becomes clearer that Smith's biggest strength at this stage in his career actually is defense. He has fared particularly well when defending the spot-up and post-up, as you can see below:

Smith: Defending the Spot Up

Year Pct. of Time Points Per Play #NBArank Rating 2012 23.2 0.905 182 Good 2011 25 0.847 72 Excellent

Two things stand out, here. While these numbers are good, they are hardly eye-popping (as you can see by the NBA rank). And still, they ranked better than anything Smith did offensively, according to Synergy.

Smith: Defending the Post Up

Year Pct. of Time Points Per Play NBA Rank Rating 2012 22.9 0.753 119 Very Good 2011 20 0.819 147 Good

One of the few exceptions is in cuts to the basket, where he's routinely excelled; 8.9 percent of Smith's offense came via that route last season, and his 1.355 PPP in those situations ranked No. 55 in the NBA. The year before, his 1.426 PPP in cuts to the basket ranked No. 44 in the league.

Are there flaws to Smith? Sure.

His reluctance to go inside the paint and preference to settle for the "long two" -- long regarded as the worst shot to take in any level of basketball -- is often vexing, particularly for a 6-foot-9, 225-pound athlete like Smith who has consistently been a reliable scorer closer to the basket.

As Kirk Goldsberry of CourtVisionAnalytics.com pointed out earlier this month, 16.3 percent of Smith's field goal attempts came via the "long two" a season ago -- the highest percentage in the league. More maddening is that he wasn't even a league average shooter from that range.

Considering all this, as well as the estimated $50-60 million that it'd cost to keep him in Atlanta beyond 2012-13 and the strained relations he's often had with the franchise over the years, one has to believe that Ferry might have to consider moving him for the right package.

Finding a trade partner is the tricky part.

Trade ideas

Any team with an interest in Smith would likely have to be a contender tradable assets with a willingness to gamble that it could then convince him to ink a long-term deal.

The other difficult aspect to this is that the rebuilding Hawks would need a promising piece in return (ideally a small forward or power forward) whom they could build around, and possibly a first-round pick or two. How many contending teams are willing to part with something like that? Not many.

That being said, here are some potential fits:

Indiana Pacers: Smith for David West, Paul George

The Pacers need another piece to compete with the Miamis and Brooklyns of the East, and Smith could be a younger, more athletic alternative to David West alongside Roy Hibbert in the frontcourt. West, like Smith, is due to become an unrestricted free agent after the season, and in order to make the deal work, the Pacers would have to be willing to unload one of their younger, up-and-coming talents like Paul George.

From the Hawks' perspective, this would essentially be a move to get George. Indiana would be getting a player in Smith who may seem like an odd fit in Frank Vogel's slow-it-down offensive system, but it could work, and here's why: The Pacers have taken considerably less 3-pointers and shot more efficiently since Vogel took over, and Smith's career could take off if he's able to buy in.

Toronto Raptors: Smith for Andrea Bargnani, Ed Davis and a first-round pick

Some would argue about Toronto being a "contender," but Raptors coach Dwayne Casey is known for his defense and the franchise spent the offseason restructuring its team to fit that approach. The Raptors also have the pieces to make such a deal. Smith would give Casey more of an athletic rebounder at the 4 to put next to highly touted rookie center Jonas Valanciunas and enable the team to move on from the perimeter-oriented Bargnani and still unproven Davis.

Where Atlanta is concerned, it would add yet another shooter and scorer in Bargnani, who is signed through 2014-15, a big man with promise in Davis, and potentially a solid draft pick who would likely be somewhere in the middle of the first round.

Longer shots: Boston Celtics: If there's a question with Boston's starting five, it's at power forward where they will rotate Brandon Bass, Jared Sullinger and Jeff Green. Landing Smith would almost certainly mean parting with Avery Bradley and/or Sullinger, and neither is likely to happen...Utah Jazz: Only Denver has as many tradeable assets as Utah, and a swap of Smith for Paul Millsap and someone like Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, Alec Burks or Gordon Hayward would make sense, but it's doubtful Smith would sign a long-term deal with the Jazz...San Antonio Spurs: Smith would make sense as a future replacement to Tim Duncan, but it'd almost certainly mean parting with Kawhi Leonard and the Spurs have done nothing but praise the versatile forward since the day he arrived last season...Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets already have a cheaper, younger power forward of the future in Kenneth Faried, but they also are one of the few contenders with a number of players to offer up in a deal. Would they part with Danilo Gallinari to get Smith?...Charlotte Bobcats: Not a contender, but the Bobcats need more key pieces to build around Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Smith could be one, but the Hawks would have to be willing to roll the dice on many of the Bobcats' younger, less proven players to make such a deal happen.

Joe Kaiser is a writer for ESPN Insider's Rumor Central.

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[Guest]

I can't believe ESPN passes this shit off in their "Rumor Central". This is the tabloids of the NBA.

[capstone21]

Its not a rumor...its just an Insider Article saying it might make sense to trade him and here are some potential packages that could make sense.

Edited September 19, 2012 by capstone21

[Guest]

Its not a rumor...its just an Insider Article saying it might make sense to trade him and here are some potential packages that could make sense.

Joe Kaiser is a writer for ESPN Insider's Rumor Central.

Looks like it was posted in their Rumor Central. I know reading through it is clear that this is speculation, but they put it in Rumor Central. The title also alludes to an eminent trade, which just is not the case. Pretty sleazy on their part if you ask me, but what do you really expect? Journalism has been hitting the shitter these days and ESPN is not an exception to the trend. Edited September 19, 2012 by hawksfanatic

[gurpilo]

Personally I would make the move for Paul George and a 1st on a heartbeat , Jeff Teague, Jenkins, George, Horford and 3 1st round picks sounds pretty good.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

If the Hawks made either of those top 2 trades, I'd be highly disappointed. We're almost better off keeping Josh, if those are the deals on the table. There will be better deals out there, once the trade deadline approaches, and playoff caliber teams come knocking on our door, wanting an impact defensive forward who is great in transition.

[capstone21]

Looks like it was posted in their Rumor Central. I know reading through it is clear that this is speculation, but they put it in Rumor Central. The title also alludes to an eminent trade, which just is not the case. Pretty sleazy on their part if you ask me, but what do you really expect? Journalism has been hitting the shitter these days and ESPN is not an exception to the trend.

It was an article in INSIDER...it was not in rumor central. There are no rumors here...it is just a regular article. He is a writer for rumor central.

[Jody23]

I agree with North. Had a great deal presented itself already, I think Ferry would have dealt Josh. I think the wait and see approach is what's being taken as Ferry has made the statement "we have until the trade deadline" a few times in reference to potential trades. I believe Ferry when he says he likes Josh and that he's a good player. But, I wouldn't pony up a max type contract to retain him and I doubt Ferry would either. We shall see what eventually happens.

[gurpilo]

If the Hawks made either of those top 2 trades, I'd be highly disappointed. We're almost better off keeping Josh, if those are the deals on the table. There will be better deals out there, once the trade deadline approaches, and playoff caliber teams come knocking on our door, wanting an impact defensive forward who is great in transition.

Honestly I don't think there are much better prospects than Paul George, can play SG and SF, has size, athletic, great defender, good shooter, has 3 pt range and I think on the future would be able to put 16-18 ppg, 7rpg, 3apg, 2spg, 1 bpg shooting .45% only 22 years old, nice player to fit with Horford and Teague, much better fit than Josh Smith.

[macdaddy]

It was an article in INSIDER...it was not in rumor central. There are no rumors here...it is just a regular article. He is a writer for rumor central.

That may be but sub headers like this are just stupid and misleading

Pack your bags, Josh Smith

Indiana, Toronto among good trade fits for Atlanta's enigmatic power forward

How about this

Pack your bags, Lebron James

Hawks have a good trade that works with the CBA and benefits them.

[frosgrim]

Honestly I don't think there are much better prospects than Paul George, can play SG and SF, has size, athletic, great defender, good shooter, has 3 pt range and I think on the future would be able to put 16-18 ppg, 7rpg, 3apg, 2spg, 1 bpg shooting .45% only 22 years old, nice player to fit with Horford and Teague, much better fit than Josh Smith.

I like George as well. That trade with Indiana has some potential. The San Antonio idea around Leonard also is potentially attractive. Smith needs to make up his own mind about if he'll be willing to resign with the club or if he wants to move on. If Ferry doesn't get an indication that Smith is likely to resign with the club, then Ferry needs to move Smith for the best offer. I don't take the media statements by either party to be an indicator of their true feelings about the situation. Both sides are playing it correctly right now.

[capstone21]

I like George as well. That trade with Indiana has some potential. The San Antonio idea around Leonard also is potentially attractive. Smith needs to make up his own mind about if he'll be willing to resign with the club or if he wants to move on. If Ferry doesn't get an indication that Smith is likely to resign with the club, then Ferry needs to move Smith for the best offer. I don't take the media statements by either party to be an indicator of their true feelings about the situation. Both sides are playing it correctly right now.

Getting George would be great and then throw a big deal at Harden in the offseason....that would be a really nice looking team....Teague/Harden/George/Horford

[modawgatl18]

Bargnani Davis and a first would be decent haul considering Bargnani is a big who can hit the three fits in with the type of players ferrys brought in and davis is a young player with potential and as for the first id like to think that pick would at least be a mid round pick that we could easily package together with what we got to trade up in the draft like the possibilities just dont see it happening

[warcore]

I'm a fan of the Indiana trade. Just see the trade forum.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

I like George, but not in exchange for Smith. A bird in the hand isn't worth two in the bush. Smith will be an All Star this season, barring injury. George has shown tremendous upside in Indiana and they are very high on him; so high that they considered trading Granger to give George more touches. I agree with Jody in that if DF had a great offer on the table for Smith, he'd be gone. Smith will be apart of DF's team unless Miami offers LBJ or Smith walks in 2013.

[AHF]

I hope Bargnani is not the centerpiece of a trade of Smith. Bigs that can't rebound don't win big.

[capstone21]

Bargs is a SF in a PFs body.

[Admin]

I want no part of Bargnani or the disappointment that is Ed Davis. Now David West and Paul George I could get behind every day of the week. George is uber talented and just grew 2" last year so he's still not the player that he's going to become. West would be nice to re-sign cheaper in the off-season if we decided to or he'd make a nice SnT piece.

[Guest]

Only the Indiana trade is remotely interesting to me as a Hawks fan.