Phoenix Sports Radio Personality says Suns Interest in Josh Smith is False.

[GameTime]

The problem with the efficiency stats is all of us here knows he can't shoot. So, when he gets a halfway decent coach to tell him and force him not to shoot instead of encouraging him to (Drew IS on the record) he WILL be elite.

09-10 stats of (16pts-9rebs-4asts-2blocks-2steals on 51% FG IS elite)

So the question is: do we give up elite talent just for something Larry Drew won't tarnish?

[Admin]

I think you'd need to compare real numbers of Gortat to Josh. Obviously its better to shoot 8-10 than 10-30 but over the course of a year there isn't that huge of difference between the two actual players.

I'm not here to defend Josh's shot selection by any means but for this season Josh averages 6 more shot attempts and 5 more points than Gortat. I'm not seeing that as a huge gap in efficiency but that's just me. Plus you can't really equate a missed shot to a turnover. A missed shot does not always result in the other team getting the ball.

Anyway. I'm ready to move on too. I just hope we can get a better player in return. That may be unrealistic.

For a team who are such poor offensive rebounders more often than not a miss, especially a long jump shot, translates into a rebound for the opponent and often it's a long rebound and the other team can get in transition easier from it.

The key thing with all of those Josh misses is that our offense would be a lot more efficient if those shots were given to more efficient players.

[Admin]

The problem with the efficiency stats is all of us here knows he can't shoot. So, when he gets a halfway decent coach to tell him and force him not to shoot instead of encouraging him to (Drew IS on the record) he WILL be elite.

09-10 stats of (16pts-9rebs-4asts-2blocks-2steals on 51% FG IS elite)

So the question is: do we give up elite talent just for something Larry Drew won't tarnish?

You know what changed after 09-10? I wish I could find the quote, but I believe that was the offseason where Josh's inner circle and his personal shooting coach told him to ignore his teammates, coaches and fans and just fire away. He's clearly taken that to heart! And after 9 years you're still putting that selfishness and stupidity on the coach? That was the exact same thing said when Woody was fired and it looks like he's done pretty well in New York. It looks like LD has done really well with the rest of the players on the Hawks roster. Nobody is going to change Josh, although if he goes to a new team he might do well to reign himself in for a while, but he's going to regress to the player he wants to be and thinks he's is. The same guy who has been firing up long jumpers since way back in high school and will continue to do so until his career is over.

[Admin]

BTW if 16pts-9rebs-4asts-2blocks-2steals on 51% FG IS elite then I guess Al Horford THIS YEAR putting up 16pts-10rebs-3.5asts-1blocks-1steals on 54% FG is at least as elite and in some ways more elite than Josh's career best year.

[macdaddy]

For a team who are such poor offensive rebounders more often than not a miss, especially a long jump shot, translates into a rebound for the opponent and often it's a long rebound and the other team can get in transition easier from it.

The key thing with all of those Josh misses is that our offense would be a lot more efficient if those shots were given to more efficient players.

None of that i'm disagreeing with. I just think that the number of Josh misses is being grossly overstated. On average he is not taking anywhere near 10-15 bad misses a game. Its more like 4-5. You're assuming every miss is a bad shot, every miss is a turnover, and every miss would have been made by a different player but not applying those standards to the other players. He's 45% from the field which is middle of the pack for his position.

[Admin]

None of that i'm disagreeing with. I just think that the number of Josh misses is being grossly overstated. On average he is not taking anywhere near 10-15 bad misses a game. Its more like 4-5. You're assuming every miss is a bad shot, every miss is a turnover, and every miss would have been made by a different player but not applying those standards to the other players. He's 45% from the field which is middle of the pack for his position.

No I don't assume that at all. I'm assuming that if we distribute those shots to people who are 10% better shooters (random # BTW) that we're 10% more likely to make the shot. And no, not all of them are bad, but so far he's taken 95 3pt shots and every single one of those are a bad shot for someone who's such a poor 3PT shooter. That's a heck of a lot of shots that a better shooter could have taken or in a lot of cases an opportunity for Josh to take a shot he's much more proficient at in the very least.

[Admin]

And think about this for a minute.

Josh has the 26th highest usage rate in the NBA while being tied for 142nd in TS%** and 74th in traditional FG%.

Josh is 121st in 3pt shots attempted while being 224th in the league in 3PT%.

Now do either of those stats sound like something you'd want to brag about offensively or does he sound like the type of guy who should be taking as many shots as he does?

** TS%: True Shooting Percentage - what a player's shooting percentage would be if we accounted for free throws and 3-pointers.

[drzachary]

Yes, the hypothetical players were extreme examples to prove a point: namely that comparing PPG scoring totals is honestly not that useful.

Obviously, a missed shot sometimes results in an offensive rebound. (A pretty damn small amount of the time -- not worth the cost of the shot if you're a bad shooter.) But if you agree, by my two examples, that Player B is a better scorer than Player A, you agree with the point: shooting efficiency matters, and a higher points scored number is not always indicative of better scoring. It's just math, and pointing it out is not bashing a player, either!

[GameTime]

You know what changed after 09-10? I wish I could find the quote, but I believe that was the offseason where Josh's inner circle and his personal shooting coach told him to ignore his teammates, coaches and fans and just fire away. He's clearly taken that to heart! And after 9 years you're still putting that selfishness and stupidity on the coach? That was the exact same thing said when Woody was fired and it looks like he's done pretty well in New York. It looks like LD has done really well with the rest of the players on the Hawks roster. Nobody is going to change Josh, although if he goes to a new team he might do well to reign himself in for a while, but he's going to regress to the player he wants to be and thinks he's is. The same guy who has been firing up long jumpers since way back in high school and will continue to do so until his career is over.

Larry Drew became coach and encourages Josh Smith to shoot the ball. Woody didn't. Most coaches wouldn't.

BTW if 16pts-9rebs-4asts-2blocks-2steals on 51% FG IS elite then I guess Al Horford THIS YEAR putting up 16pts-10rebs-3.5asts-1blocks-1steals on 54% FG is at least as elite and in some ways more elite than Josh's career best year.

I should of put the disclaimer while being an elite perimeter and post defender; Horford doesn't block shots or get steals like Josh. I put the blocks and steals there for a reason.

[Admin]

Larry Drew became coach and encourages Josh Smith to shoot the ball. Woody didn't. Most coaches wouldn't. I should of put the disclaimer while being an elite perimeter and post defender; Horford doesn't block shots or get steals like Josh. I put the blocks and steals there for a reason.

I find it comical that the Josh Smith fan club has to blame the head coach for allowing their elite superstar hero to take the highest number of the worst shot of all players. Sorry but elite players don't require their head coach to babysit them. Horford doesn't rely on weak side blocks as he's a superior positional defender compared to Josh. And yeah I wouldn't expect a PF-C to get as many steals as a SF-PF. But sure I will give you that Josh gets 1 more block and steal per game than Al. If that makes you feel good then great!

[Wretch]

The defense gives Josh that shot. They give it to him. They don't force him into a weakness in his game, they simply let him shoot that shot. If he misses it and the ball goes the other way on a long rebound, then what is the difference between that and a turnover? These are basically just thrown away possessions.

They accomplish the same thing as a turnover - nothing.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

None of that i'm disagreeing with. I just think that the number of Josh misses is being grossly overstated. On average he is not taking anywhere near 10-15 bad misses a game. Its more like 4-5. You're assuming every miss is a bad shot, every miss is a turnover, and every miss would have been made by a different player but not applying those standards to the other players. He's 45% from the field which is middle of the pack for his position.

Josh's current rank at PF in these categories

Minutes: 4th

Points: 8th

Rebounds: 11th

Assists: tied 1st ( w/David Lee )

Steals: tied 3rd ( w/Paul Millsap )

Blocks: 3rd

This is the Josh that people see in the box score, and out on the court at times, that convinces people that he's an All-Star. Now for the rest of the categories

Turnovers: 1st . . ( 3.0 a game )

Field Goal %: 44th . . ( tied with Pau Gasol . . who is getting ripped for having a bad shooting season, and Big Baby Davis )

Free Throw %: 67th . . ( 1 spot below Reggie Evans )

3 Point %: 24th . . ( out of 42 PFs that have even attempted a 3 )

3 Point Att: tied 12th . . ( w/Rashard Lewis )

This is the Josh that drives people crazy, and drives his offensive rating as a player to the bottom of the barrel.

[Wretch]

Josh's current rank at PF in these categories

Minutes: 4th

Points: 8th

Rebounds: 11th

Assists: tied 1st ( w/David Lee )

Steals: tied 3rd ( w/Paul Millsap )

Blocks: 3rd

This is the Josh that people see in the box score, and out on the court at times, that convinces people that he's an All-Star. Now for the rest of the categories

Turnovers: 1st . . ( 3.0 a game )

Field Goal %: 44th . . ( tied with Pau Gasol . . who is getting ripped for having a bad shooting season, and Big Baby Davis )

Free Throw %: 67th . . ( 1 spot below Reggie Evans )

3 Point %: 24th . . ( out of 42 PFs that have even attempted a 3 )

3 Point Att: tied 12th . . ( w/Rashard Lewis )

This is the Josh that drives people crazy, and drives his offensive rating as a player to the bottom of the barrel.

There needs to be a "double like" button for posts like this.

[GameTime]

I find it comical that the Josh Smith fan club has to blame the head coach for allowing their elite superstar hero to take the highest number of the worst shot of all players. Sorry but elite players don't require their head coach to babysit them.Horford doesn't rely on weak side blocks as he's a superior positional defender compared to Josh. And yeah I wouldn't expect a PF-C to get as many steals as a SF-PF. But sure I will give you that Josh gets 1 more block and steal per game than Al. If that makes you feel good then great!

LOL @ Josh Smith fan club; So if you don't want to see great talent go to waste you are a fanboy, hilarious

Not just allowing him to shoot Dolfan. Encouraging him to. Quite a difference.

Your coach tells you you can make shots and creates plays for you to shoot, you will shoot. It is simple.

Josh Smith has been phenomenal defensively both post and perimeter; Metrics prove that. To say Josh Smith "relys" on weakside blocks is not fair to Josh.

I agree he can't shoot but this other triviality is not necessary. Josh Smith has skill.

[Admin]

LOL @ Josh Smith fan club; So if you don't want to see great talent go to waste you are a fanboy, hilarious

Not just allowing him to shoot Dolfan. Encouraging him to. Quite a difference.

Your coach tells you you can make shots and creates plays for you to shoot, you will shoot. It is simple.

Josh Smith has been phenomenal defensively both post and perimeter; Metrics prove that. To say Josh Smith "relys" on weakside blocks is not fair to Josh.

I agree he can't shoot but this other triviality is not necessary. Josh Smith has skill.

Not saying you're the founding member, but you're clearly in the fan club.

I'll say it again, an elite player doesn't need to be told to do or not to do something, they just do what needs to be done.

I've NEVER heard or read that LD tells Josh that he can shoot and creates plays for him to shoot. He's only said that they don't discourage him from shooting. Probably because this Elite Josh Smith Superstar Player has a fragile ego and can't handle the truth.

Yeah he was really elite defensively as Carmelo was making him his bitch the other night.

[macdaddy]

Yes, the hypothetical players were extreme examples to prove a point: namely that comparing PPG scoring totals is honestly not that useful.

Obviously, a missed shot sometimes results in an offensive rebound. (A pretty damn small amount of the time -- not worth the cost of the shot if you're a bad shooter.) But if you agree, by my two examples, that Player B is a better scorer than Player A, you agree with the point: shooting efficiency matters, and a higher points scored number is not always indicative of better scoring. It's just math, and pointing it out is not bashing a player, either!

Its all good. I'm not trying to excuse any of Josh's faults. Shooting efficiency of course matters, as does actually scoring, I mean I don't want to trade Josh for a guy who is 2-3 every game. There was a mention, not sure by who, that Josh is missing 10-15 bad shots a game and that's just way wrong.

For all his faults and boneheaded plays I think if we just swap Josh for Gortat we are a .500 team at best. Now in the long run with other changes it may be best thing to do. Believe me I"m ready to not be grabbing stills from youtube videos to show that he should have passed the damn ball.

Seems like all of a sudden we are undervaluing a guy that many of us have been ovrervaluing for so long. The long and short of it is i'd love to have Gortat on our team, but he's a 30 year old 6'11" center who averages 11/9 when not playing next to Steve Nash. He'd be great to have but we will need a lot more if that's all we can get. And i feel like Josh is our best chip to bring back a real scorer.

[Kimsey]

Larry Drew: "we are a jump shooting team". JS already has low bbiq with shot selection but the coach encourages jump shots as his base offense.

The misdirection play from Josh to Al after a timeout should be routine after 9 years and should not require a meeting to execute. The offense should be much more complex than running Korver through screens and a circus act routine to get semi decent post position for Josh or Al.

[Watchman]

The problem with the efficiency stats is all of us here knows he can't shoot. So, when he gets a halfway decent coach to tell him and force him not to shoot instead of encouraging him to (Drew IS on the record) he WILL be elite.

09-10 stats of (16pts-9rebs-4asts-2blocks-2steals on 51% FG IS elite)

So the question is: do we give up elite talent just for something Larry Drew won't tarnish?

Elite talent used inappropriately is not elite talent. Maybe Drew shares in the blame with Josh for the bad shot selection (not to mention bringing the ball upcourt, etc.) but unless Drew instructs Josh to take the long 2s and 3s, then the bulk if the responsiblity lies with Josh, as he certainly should know by now it isn't a strong suit. If Josh would play within his strengths, there is no doubt he would already be an all-star. However, his refusal to do so suggests that he has other agendas, that in his mind, out-weigh doing the things that would cause him to be great. After all these years in the league, I can't see that changing, so right now, I'd make the trade for two Cokes and a bag of chips at this point.

Edited February 1, 2013 by Watchman

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I find it comical that the Josh Smith fan club has to blame the head coach for allowing their elite superstar hero to take the highest number of the worst shot of all players. Sorry but elite players don't require their head coach to babysit them.Horford doesn't rely on weak side blocks as he's a superior positional defender compared to Josh. And yeah I wouldn't expect a PF-C to get as many steals as a SF-PF. But sure I will give you that Josh gets 1 more block and steal per game than Al. If that makes you feel good then great!

Josh's total shots from 16+ feet and percentage of shots under Woody ( regular season totals and percentages only )

2005: 162 shots . . . 26.9% .. ( playing SG and SF, some PF )

2006: 335 shots . . . 44.2% .. ( 1st year of JJ . . Al Harrington playing PF.. Josh playing a lot of SF )

2007: 394 shots . . . 39.7% .. ( Offensive rating career low - 99 . . after this season, Woody is determined to make Josh play more inside )

2008: 323 shots . . . 28.5% .. ( reduced 3 point att from 152 to 99, despite playing 9 more games )

2009: 249 shots . . . 29.3% ..

2010: 233 shots . . . 23.3% .. ( career high offensive rating - 109 . . . . Offensive rating increased in 3 straight years . 7 threes total.)

Woody isn't offerend a new contract . . . Drew is hired . . . then Josh's jumpers SKYROCKETED in Drew's "Pentagle ( aka - if you're open, shoot the ball ) System".

2011: 460 shots. . . . 44.2% .. ( shot almost 41% from 16 - 23 feet, which encourages him to shoot more jumpers next season )

2012: 499 shots . . . 45.3% .. ( career best statistical season, but Offensive rating is only 101. . shot 37% from 16 - 23 feet .. 26% from 3 point )

2013: 257 shots . . . 38.9% . . ( offensive rating - 94, a career low . . shooting 29% from 16 - 23 feet . . 29.5% from 3 point ).

Drew destroyed in one year ( really one month ) that Woody had taken 3 years to get under control.

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I think there was a quote from Drew that said that he "tolerated" Josh taking those shots, because he does so many other things from the team. So while he may not have liked him shooting jumpers, he did virtually nothing to reign him in either. That's why he was firing away the last 2 seasons.

I mean, damn . . he's taken over 1100 shots from 16+ feet in the last 2.5 years. He's on pace to shoot another 400+ shots from 16+ feet this year. That's 6 long jumpers a game from one of the worst long jumper shooters on Earth. LOL . . he could actually attempt almost 1400 regular season long jumpers in 3 years under Drew.

That's incredible.