Hawksquawk 2012 Summer Dynasty Draft - 2013 Midseason Review

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

Bump for mid-season evaluations!

As for right now, the GM of Birds of a Feather, PSSSHHHRRR87, is content with his team and feels we could make some noise in the playoffs. Carlisle has the championship background to lead us to the promise land. My top draft choice, DW5, is having an off year as all of his numbers are down (16 pts, 7 asts. 17.5 PER, although they are still good enough for us to win a lot of games) and my starting center, Andrew Bogut, has been injured for most of the year. Not having a bonafide center to gather rebounds has hurt us as we have had to start Glen Davis in his spot who is currently injured. I have been very impressed with two players in particular, David West and Demar DeRozan. West is playing at an elite level as he is averaging 17 pts, 8 rebs/game and has a PER of almost 20. DeRozan is proving why I drafted him so high in the 3rd round with 17 pts, 4 rebs, and 2 asts/ game. My star, Carmelo Anthony who I drafted in the 2nd round, is being what I expected with 28 pts, 6.5 rebs, and 2 asts/game. As for the bench, what can I say. My 6th man Mike Conley is giving me good numbers from the bench and have been happy with his production. Morrow is really our only 3 pt shooter, but has been injured as of late and JR Smith lost his starting gig due to a recent career worse shooting slump, although he is having a career best year. Tayshaun Prince and Channing Frye are having a very mediocre seasons, but they give us what we need which is a veteran BBIQ from the bench. Hansbrough and my rookie Zeller don't see the court all that often. If you use player Estimated Wins Added (then discounted by 30% to account for better quality of teams) to evaluate this teams current place in the win column, we are sitting at 29 wins through 52 games played. I feel this team will be a 3-6th seed.

HC - Rick Carlisle

C - Andrew Bogut

PF - David West

SF - Carmelo Anthony

SG - Demar DeRozan

PG - Deron Williams

PG - Mike Conley

SG - JR Smith

SF - Tayshaun Prince

PF - Glen Davis

C - Tyler Zeller

F - Channing Frye

G/F - Anthony Morrow

PF - Tyler Hansbrough

[AHF]

I am posting this to open up discussion at the midseason on the dynasty draft. As a recap for those who don't recall this. This was a league drafted by members of the Squawk where it works like many fantasy dynasty teams - you get the keep the players you draft for as long as you want without consideration of salary but they age and play like they do in real life so you aren't getting them frozen in time. (Example: Kevin Garnett was a controversial pick because he threatened to retire last summer but Joe Johnson being overpaid was irrelevant to his selection).

I will add some comments on my own team's successes and disappointments in the near future.

Enjoy!

[Admin]

Posted this in the original thread in the fantasy forum but here's what I've got.

My top pick, Blake Griffin is averaging 19/9 with a PER of 23.3 while my 2nd pick, Greg Monroe is averaging 16/10 with a PER of 19.8. My 3rd round pick Danny Granger has not played this year, costing me an average of 19/5 with a PER of 18.7 from last year. My best value pick so far has been either Tiago Splitter in the 8th with 11/6 and a PER of 20 or Shawn Marion in the 11th with a 12/8 and a PER of 17.2.

Using EWA (46) * .7 (30% reduction for stronger teams in this league compared to real NBA) my team came out to 32.2 wins in 52 games and that's with a 0 from Granger and a -3.1 from Austin Rivers, so I'm feeling pretty good about my team overall.

Re-shuffling my lineup based on EWA here's my roster:

PG - Brandon Jennings (5.3) / Jeremy Lin (3.4)

SG - Danny Green (2.4) / Tony Allen (1.2) / Brandon Roy (-0.1) / Austin Rivers (-3.1)

SF - Shawn Marion (4.5) / Danny Granger (0 - Injured)

PF - Blake Griffin (10.1) / Kenneth Faried (6.7) / John Henson (1.3)

C - Greg Monroe (8.2) / Tiago Splitter (6.1)

The vast majority of my success has come from my front court, with a fairly disappointing back court. Once Granger comes back he should be a tremendous boost, but I'm going to need a lot more production from my sad SG group and either Lin or Jennings to really step it up.

Coach - Doc Rivers

[AHF]

Round 1
1 - Devon - Kevin Durant
2 - Supporter - Lebron James
3 - JayBirdHawk - Kyrie Irving
4 - Capstone - Chris Paul
5 - AHF - Dwight Howard
6 - sultanofatl - Andrew Bynum
7 - Diesel - Kevin Love
8 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - Deron Williams
9 - Dolfan - Blake Griffin
10 - Mutombolievable - Russell Westbrook
11 - Alejandro09 - Derrick Rose
12 - Buzzard - DeMarcus Cousins
13 - jy23 - Rajon Rondo
14 - Nicholasp27 - Anthony Davis
15 - LethalWeapon3 - Ricky Rubio
16 - coachx - James Harden

Round 2
17 - coachx - LaMarcus Aldridge
18 - LethalWeapon3 - Marc Gasol
19 - Nicholasp27 - Roy Hibbert
20 - jy23 - Dwyane Wade
21 - Buzzard - John Wall
22 - Alejandro09 - Al Horford
23 - Mutombolievable - Josh Smith
24 - Dolfan - Greg Monroe
25 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - Carmelo Anthony
26 - Diesel - Ty Lawson
27 - sultanofatl - Kobe Bryant
28 - AHF - Tony Parker
29 - Capstone21 - Al Jefferson
30 - JayBirdHawk - Tyson Chandler
31 - Supporter - Pau Gasol
32 - Devon - Chris Bosh

Round 3
33 - Devon - Serge Ibaka
34 - Supporter - Joe Johnson
35 - JayBirdHawk - Dirk Nowitzki
36 - Capstone21 - Rudy Gay
37 - AHF - Andre Iguodala
38 - sultanofatl - Manu Ginobili
39 - Diesel - Marcin Gortat
40 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - Demar Derozan
41 - Dolfan - Danny Granger
42 - Mutombolievable - Monta Ellis
43 - Alejandro09 - Paul George
44 - Buzzard - David Lee
45 - jy23 - Michael Kidd Gilchrist
46 - Nicholasp27 - Eric Gordon
47 - LethalWeapon3 - Amare Stoudemire
48 - coachx - Luol Deng

Round 4
49 - coachx - Stephen Curry
50 - LethalWeapon3 - Nicholas Batum
51 - Nicholasp27 - Danilo Gallinari
52 - jy23 - Paul Millsap
53 - Buzzard - Klay Thompson
54 - Alejandro09 - Joakim Noah
55 - Mutombolievable - Brook Lopez
56 - Dolfan - Brandon Jennings
57 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - David West
58 - Diesel - Aaron Afflalo
59 - sultanofatl - Ryan Anderson
60 - AHF - Kevin Garnett
61 - Capstone21 - Javale McGee
62 - JayBirdHawk - Kawhi Leonard
63 - Supporter - Nene Hilario
64 - Devon - Kyle Lowry

Round 5
65 - Devon - Tyreke Evans
66 - Supporter - Ersan Ilyasova
67 - JayBirdHawk - Marshon Brooks
68 - Capstone21 - Wesley Matthews
69 - AHF - Bradley Beal
70 - sultanofatl - Steve Nash
71 - Diesel - Paul Pierce
72 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - Andrew Bogut
73 - Dolfan - Kenneth Faried
74 - Mutombolievable - Wilson Chandler
75 - Alejandro09 - Hold the Mayo
76 - Buzzard - Derrick Favors
77 - jy23 - Tim Duncan
78 - Nicholasp27 - Tristan Thompson
79 - LethalWeapon3 - Thomas Robinson
80 - coachx - DeAndre Jordan

Round 6
81 - coachx - Brandon Knight
82 - LethalWeapon3 - Brandon Rush
83 - Nicholasp27 - Jrue Holiday
84 - jy23 - Zach Randolph
85 - Buzzard - Michael Beasley
86 - Alejandro09 - Udonis Haslem
87 - Mutombolievable - Anderson Varejao
88 - Dolfan - Tony Allen
89 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - Mike Conley
90 - Diesel - Jarrett Jack
91 - sultanofatl - Gerald Wallace
92 - AHF - Kevin Martin
93 - Capstone21 - Andrea Bargnani
94 - JayBirdHawk - Thaddeus Young
95 - Supporter - Goran Dragic
96 - Devon - Jordan Crawford

Round 7
97 - Devon - Andre Drummond
98 - Supporter - Nikola Pekovic
99 - JayBirdHawk - Kris Humphries
100 - Capstone21 - Evan Turner
101 - AHF - Carlos Boozer
102 - sultanofatl - Kendrick Perkins
103 - Diesel - Trevor Ariza
104 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - Tayshaun Prince
105 - Dolfan - Jeremy Lin
106 - Mutombolievable - Iman Shumpert
107 - Alejandro09 - Devin Harris
108 - Buzzard - Chauncey Billups
109 - jy23 - Steve Novak
110 - Nicholasp27 - Avery Bradley
111 - LethalWeapon3 - Jonas Valančiūnas
112 - coachx - Harrison Barnes

Round 8
113 - coachx - Spencer Hawes
114 - LethalWeapon3 - Jeff Teague
115 - Nicholasp27 - Damien Lillard
116 - jy23 - Ray Allen
117 - Buzzard - Jared Dudley
118 - Alejandro09 - Landry Fields
119 - Mutombolievable - Isaiah Thomas
120 - Dolfan - Tiago Splitter
121 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - Tyler Zeller
122 - Diesel - JJ Hickson
123 - sultanofatl - Taj Gibson
124 - AHF - Enes Kanter
125 - Capstone21 - Raymond Felton
126 - JayBirdHawk - George Hill
127 - Supporter - Lou Williams
128 - Devon - Dorrell Wright

Round 9
129 - Devon - Darren Collison
130 - Supporter - Marcus Thornton
131 - JayBirdHawk - Meyers Leonard
132 - Capstone21 - Samuel Dalembert
133 - AHF - Eric Bledsoe
134 - sultanofatl - Mario Chalmers
135 - Diesel - Emeka Okafor
136 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - J.R. Smith
137 - Dolfan - Danny Green
138 - Mutombolievable – Marvin Williams
139 - Alejandro09 - Gordon Hayward
140 - Buzzard - Jose Calderon
141 - jy23 - Zaza Pachulia
142 - Nicholasp27 - Shane Battier
143 - LethalWeapon3 - Kevin Seraphin
144 - coachx - Thabo Sefolosha

Round 10
145 - coachx - Andre Miller
146 - LethalWeapon3 - Courtney Lee
147 - Nicholasp27 - Tom Thibodeau
148 - jy23 - Ramon Sessions
149 - Buzzard - Lamar Odom
150 - Alejandro09 - Gregg Popovich
151 - Mutombolievable - Omer Asik
152 - Dolfan - Doc Rivers
153 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - Rick Carlisle
154 - Diesel - Nick Young
155 - sultanofatl - Derrick Williams
156 - AHF - Rodney Stuckey
157 - Capstone21 - Jerry Sloan
158 - JayBirdHawk - George Karl
159 - Supporter - Chandler Parsons
160 - Devon - Scott Brooks

Round 11
161 - Devon - Brandon Bass
162 - Supporter - Phil Jackson
163 - JayBirdHawk - Kemba Walker
164 - Capstone21 - Alonzo Gee
165 - AHF - Chris Kaman
166 - sultanofatl - Jeff Van Gundy
167 - Diesel - Gerald Henderson
168 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - Glen Davis
169 - Dolfan - Shawn Marion
170 - Mutombolievable – Stan Van Gundy
171 - Alejandro09 - Perry Jones III
172 - Buzzard - Reggie Evans
173 - jy23 - Larry Brown
174 - Nicholasp27 - John Jenkins
175 - LethalWeapon3 - Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
176 - coachx - Pat Riley

Round 12
177 - coachx - Bismack Biyombo
178 - LethalWeapon3 - Kevin McHale
179 - Nicholasp27 - Mirza Teletovic
180 - jy23 - Gerald Green
181 - Buzzard - Jared Sullinger
182 - Alejandro09 - Nikola Vucevic
183 - Mutombolievable - Ed Davis
184 - Dolfan - Brandon Roy
185 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - Channing Frye
186 - Diesel - Rick Adelman
187 - sultanofatl - Kyle Korver
188 - AHF - Jeff Green
189 - Capstone21 - Louis Scola
190 - JayBirdHawk - Jordan Hill
191 - Supporter - Jason Terry
192 - Devon - Chase Buddinger

Round 13
193 - Devon - Caron Butler
194 - Supporter - Marcus Camby
195 - JayBirdHawk - DeJuan Blair
196 - Capstone21 - Ronnie Brewer
197 - AHF - Dion Waiters
198 - sultanofatl - Fab Melo
199 - Diesel - Hedo Turkoglu
200 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - Anthony Morrow
201 - Dolfan - John Henson
202 - Mutombolievable – Greivis Vasquez
203 - Alejandro09 - Kendal Marshall
204 - Buzzard - Frank Vogel
205 - jy23 - Ivan Johnson
206 - Nicholasp27 - Boris Diaw
207 - LethalWeapon3 - Mike Dunleavy Jr.
208 - coachx - Jamal Crawford

Round 14
209 - coachx - Festus Ezeli
210 - LethalWeapon3 - Luke Ridnour
211 - Nicholasp27 - Scott Machado
212 - jy23 - Nick Collison
213 - Buzzard - Antawn Jamison
214 - Alejandro09 - JJ Redick
215 - Mutombolievable - Al Farouq Aminu
216 - Dolfan - Austin Rivers
217 - PSSSHHHRRR87 - Tyler Hansborough
218 - Diesel - Byron Mullen
219 - sultanofatl - Grant Hill
220 - AHF - Larry Bird
221 - Capstone21 - Amir Johnson
222 - JayBirdHawk - Corey Brewer
223 - Supporter - DJ Augustine
224 - Devon - Jason Thompson

[LucastheThird]

I'm still confident that I drafted a competitive team even without any production from D. Rose. I also drafted some rookies and it's kinda hard to say they would do well in my team when they haven't had much pt. Here's how my team compares using PER and EWA.

PG-Derrick Rose (0-injured), Devin Harris (0.5 12.26), Kendall Marshall (-0.6 5.52)

SG-OJ Mayo (5.4 16.38), Gordon Hayward (3.4 16.37)

SF- Paul George (6.7 17.39) Landry Fields (-0.2 9.96)

PF- Al Horford (7.4 18.98) Udonis Haslem (-0.9 9.51) Perry Jones III (-0.5 3.88)

C- Joakim Noah (5.9 17.02) Nikola Vucevic (5.9 19.23)

Calculating the EWA that comes out to 23 wins per 52 games. This is a losing team going strictly by numbers; however I believe that this team would compete constructed as is. (sans D Rose)

[capstone21]

Looking at my team and it is pretty deep and versatile. I think I have a good combo of offense and defense. I also have a nice inside outside game too. Pg Chris Paul / Raymond FeltonSg Wesly Matthews / Ronnie BrewerSf Rudy Gay / Evan TurnerPf Al jefferson / Amir Johnson / Andrei BarganiC Javale McGee / Louis Scola / Samual DalembertCoach Jerry Sloan

[Admin]

Looking at my team and it is pretty deep and versatile. I think I have a good combo of offense and defense. I also have a nice inside outside game too.Pg Chris Paul / Raymond FeltonSg Wesly Matthews / Ronnie BrewerSf Rudy Gay / Evan TurnerPf Al jefferson / Amir Johnson / Andrei BarganiC Javale McGee / Louis Scola / Samual DalembertCoach Jerry Sloan

What's your estimated wins added for your team?

[coachx]

I drew the last pick in the 1st round......#16 overall. I could not be happier with James Harden with the16th pick. My first 5 picks are my starters just as planned. So here is the squad:S. Curry / B. Knight / A. MillerJ. Harden / Jamal Crawford.................not the other J CrawfordL. Deng / T. Sefalosha / H. BarnesL. Aldridge / B. BiyomboD. Jordan / S. Hawes / F. EzeliCoach: Pat RileyThe bench:With the last pick, in the next to last round, Jamal Crawford was a steal for his scoring punch off the bench. Some solid young players with potential were selected late in B. Knight, H. Barnes, B. Biyombo, and F. Ezeli. Some solid veteran role players were also selected in: A. Miller, T. Sefalosha, S. Hawes, and J. Crawford as a 6th man scorer. This looks like a solid bench mixed with youth and expierence. I value Sefalosha's All NBA caliber defense greatly.The Starters:L. Deng - is leading the NBA in mpg. He is the Bulls 1st option on offense and is an All NBA defender who can defend 4 positions. He is leading the Bulls to homecourt advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs with Rose injured. He is an allstar player in his prime with several good years left. He is versitile enough to both slash and spread the floor as a shooter. He is needed to defend the Lebrons, Carmelos, and Durants against those GMs with earlier picks in the draft. His importance cannot by understated. That is why I started with him when discussing starters.L. Aldridge - another allstart player in his prime. His size, length, and skill are rare combination in todays NBA. His post skill completes this team on the offensive end. His defensive versitility is nothing to sneeze at. He is a perfect #2option on offense.S. Curry - has taken the next step this year and is leading his Warrios to home court advantage in the tough Western Conference. Many feel he is the best player on that Warriors team that is now winning in a big way. On this team his perimeter shooting mixes perfect with the slashing of Harden and inside game of Aldridge. He is a young PG who's best days are ahead of him. If he gets an ankle injury there are both the young and dynamic B. Knight and the veteran A. Miller ready to step in at a moments notice.D. Jordan - is probably the most athletic center in the game today. He is the defensive anchor for the championship contending Clippers. He will also protect the rim on this team and out run any center in the game on the fast break. His best days should be ahead of him.J. Harden - has proven he is a top 5 scorer in the NBA right now......while being on a winning playoff team. His best days are also ahead of him. He is now breaking into the superstar realm of NBA players. He is not only a gifted scorer but played defacto PG on the talented Thunder team last year proving he can do more then score........he also makes those around him better with his passing and playmaking ability. Harden can do it all and will only get better. At pick #16 he was a steal.Conclusion: A well balanced team with youth and veterans on the bench. It would be tough to put together a better club with your 1st pick being #16 overall. This team can compete immediately and should also get better over time.

Edited February 15, 2013 by coachx

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

I am posting this to open up discussion at the midseason on the dynasty draft. As a recap for those who don't recall this. This was a league drafted by members of the Squawk where it works like many fantasy dynasty teams - you get the keep the players you draft for as long as you want without consideration of salary but they age and play like they do in real life so you aren't getting them frozen in time. (Example: Kevin Garnett was a controversial pick because he threatened to retire last summer but Joe Johnson being overpaid was irrelevant to his selection).

I will add some comments on my own team's successes and disappointments in the near future.

Enjoy!

I was wondering where my post in the other thread went... lol I meant to do this at exactly 41 games in, but the All Star break is a bad place to review either.

Posted this in the original thread in the fantasy forum but here's what I've got.

My top pick, Blake Griffin is averaging 19/9 with a PER of 23.3 while my 2nd pick, Greg Monroe is averaging 16/10 with a PER of 19.8. My 3rd round pick Danny Granger has not played this year, costing me an average of 19/5 with a PER of 18.7 from last year. My best value pick so far has been either Tiago Splitter in the 8th with 11/6 and a PER of 20 or Shawn Marion in the 11th with a 12/8 and a PER of 17.2.

Using EWA (46) * .7 (30% reduction for stronger teams in this league compared to real NBA) my team came out to 32.2 wins in 52 games and that's with a 0 from Granger and a -3.1 from Austin Rivers, so I'm feeling pretty good about my team overall.

Re-shuffling my lineup based on EWA here's my roster:

PG - Brandon Jennings (5.3) / Jeremy Lin (3.4)

SG - Danny Green (2.4) / Tony Allen (1.2) / Brandon Roy (-0.1) / Austin Rivers (-3.1)

SF - Shawn Marion (4.5) / Danny Granger (0 - Injured)

PF - Blake Griffin (10.1) / Kenneth Faried (6.7) / John Henson (1.3)

C - Greg Monroe (8.2) / Tiago Splitter (6.1)

The vast majority of my success has come from my front court, with a fairly disappointing back court. Once Granger comes back he should be a tremendous boost, but I'm going to need a lot more production from my sad SG group and either Lin or Jennings to really step it up.

Coach - Doc Rivers

I had a LOT of blanks for my player's EWA. Morrow, Bogut, Zeller, Frye, and Hansborough were 0.5 or less. I'm lucky to have 29 wins at this point!

[Admin]

I was wondering where my post in the other thread went... lol I meant to do this at exactly 41 games in, but the All Star break is a bad place to review either.

I had a LOT of blanks for my player's EWA. Morrow, Bogut, Zeller, Frye, and Hansborough were 0.5 or less. I'm lucky to have 29 wins at this point!

Yeah I think that AHF was moving your post over here just as I was posting mine and I was wondering where it went as well LOL. You definitely have a lot of blanks that will help you out. I hope that the others will do their EWA so that we can get a good look at how the teams stack up.

[coachx]

Yeah I think that AHF was moving your post over here just as I was posting mine and I was wondering where it went as well LOL. You definitely have a lot of blanks that will help you out. I hope that the others will do their EWA so that we can get a good look at how the teams stack up.

I'll take the eye ball test over EWA any day of the week.................that is as long as the brain connected to the eye balls knows what they are talking about.BUT just for you I'll work on that tomorrow.Goodnight to all. Edited February 15, 2013 by coachx

[Admin]

I'll take the eye ball test over EWA any day of the week.................that is as long as the brain connected to the eye balls knows what they are talking about.BUT just for you I'll work on that tomorrow.Goodnight to all.

Haha I don't think the eyeball test works here as we all have very talented teams. Not that EWA is the end all be all defining factor, but it's curious to see where we're at now and will be at the end of the year.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

Yeah I think that AHF was moving your post over here just as I was posting mine and I was wondering where it went as well LOL. You definitely have a lot of blanks that will help you out. I hope that the others will do their EWA so that we can get a good look at how the teams stack up.

Yeah, EWA is really the only gauge of seeing how everyone is doing. If they don't, I'll burn an hour or two doing it. lol

[Admin]

Yeah, EWA is really the only gauge of seeing how everyone is doing. If they don't, I'll burn an hour or two doing it. lol

Man that would take quite a bit of time to do. Much easier if we all take 10 minutes to do our lineups.

[coachx]

Haha I don't think the eyeball test works here as we all have very talented teams. Not that EWA is the end all be all defining factor, but it's curious to see where we're at now and will be at the end of the year.

Ha, games and playoff series are won on matchups.......not EWA stats through a regular season. That was my point. Some can eye ball matchups with better outcomes then aggregate EWA stats. Edited February 15, 2013 by coachx

[coachx]

Haha I don't think the eyeball test works here as we all have very talented teams. Not that EWA is the end all be all defining factor, but it's curious to see where we're at now and will be at the end of the year.

Haha, games and playoff series are won on matchups.......not EWA stats through a regular season. That was my point. Some can eye ball matchups with better outcomes then aggregate EWA stats.

Here is an article illustrating where EWA simply wrong in many cases.......especially when the player being analyzed is a defensive specialist like Bruce Bowen or onr of the greatest defensive centers of all time in Mark Eaton. In many cases its numbers are over inlfated............with defensive specialist the numbers are grossly deflated.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=1858

After we linked to a Kevin Pelton post a few days ago that compared his WARP stat to John Hollinger's new PER-based EWA metric, we thought to ourselves, "Hey, we've got our own 'wins created'-type metric! Why don't we compare it to EWA?"

So here we go. In case you didn't already know, Win Shares uses Dean Oliver's offensive and defensive ratings to determine a player's contribution in marginal points on offense and defense; these numbers are then linked to wins by dividing by the league's marginal points per win. We don't want to toot our own horn or anything, but it's pretty accurate: when we look at all NBA teams since the 1977-78 season, the average absolute error for WS vs. "real" wins is 2.72 wins.

In his article, John didn't provide the number of games an entire hypothetical team of replacement-level players would win, but simple math indicates that EWA would put a whole team of replacements at about zero wins over an 82-game season. In fact, it looks like the replacement level is set below absolute zero -- when one adds up the league's total EWA, it actually exceeds the number of games that have been won this season.

That's not very good news for EWA's accuracy in predicting team wins. In fact, here's the average absolute errors for each season when we use both EWA and WS to predict team wins:

( See link for chart )

Individually, there are also significant discrepancies between WS and EWA. I don't know about you, but my first reaction to EWA was, "do the EWA totals look sort of... high?" Here are the top ten EWA seasons since 1977-78 (we used a constant repacement level of 10.82 for all players rather than making the position adjustment, but it doesn't really make a difference in the data):

Cumulatively, EWA checks in with an average error of 5.56, which is more than twice that of Win Shares. And if you look at the data, there isn't a single season in which EWA outperforms WS.

See link for more.

Edited February 15, 2013 by coachx

[coachx]

Where do you find EWA listed ?

basketballreference.com / nba.com / espn.com do not list it in their player stat profiles.

[LucastheThird]

These may not be where Dolfon got his, but : http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/sort/VORPe I got mine from here

[LucastheThird]

Although if we could find some other way to determine team value I would. Because there's no way I know of to calculate the supposed EWA of the teams as constructed. I have a lot of rookies that aren't playing now that I would have playing especially under Pop and there EWA right now is hurting my score.

[capstone21]

I am not a fan of the metrics way of determining if a team is good .... but here goes:Pg Chris Paul (11.3)/ Raymond Felton (2.8)Sg Wesly Matthews (3.1) / Ronnie Brewer (-0.1)Sf Rudy Gay (3.8) / Evan Turner (2.1)Pf Al jefferson (9.1) / Amir Johnson (4.6) / Andrei Bargani (0.6)C Javale McGee (5.2) / Louis Scola (3.7)/ Samual Dalembert (2.6)Coach Jerry Sloan34.16 winsOn a side note...Rudy Gay's score should go up with his impact in Toronto