Insider Request: 5 Free Agent Fits

[ATLSmith]

Yo, if someone would be so kind as to post this I'd really appreciate it. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9137798/nba-five-perfect-free-agent-fits-including-andrew-bynum-josh-smith

[HawkItus]

Friday, April 5, 2013
Five perfect free-agent fits

By Amin Elhassan
ESPN Insider

Andrew Bynum could become a franchise pillar if he stays healthy.

On Monday, I revealed my top 30 free agents, ranked by the average annual values (AAVs) of the contracts I gave them. These suggested contracts took into account the age, injury history, production, and potential (among other things) of each player.

NBA Free Agency: Early Look

Monday, April 1: Amin Elhassan
Top 30 free agents by AAV

Tuesday, April 2: Larry Coon Best/worst salary-cap situations

Wednesday, April 3: Brad Doolittle
Decisions affecting free-agent class of 2014

Thursday, April 4: Chris Broussard Pros/cons for Dwight Howard in L.A., Atlanta and Dallas

Friday, April 5: Amin Elhassan
Five perfect FA fits by scheme and personnel

So where might these guys end up? Indeed, for many of the players, there's a high probability they'll re-sign with their current teams, as the existing relationship is beneficial to both player and team, both financially and from a basketball standpoint.

But sometimes there isn't a fit moving forward. You could have tension because of unrealized expectations in the past, or the rise of younger (and cheaper) players on the team. Or it can simply be because there is no agreement on financial terms. For these players, a change of scenery is in order.

Here are five players from my free agent big board who are likely on the move, and with five new destinations. The criteria for these matches are based solely on two factors. One, basketball fit: does this player fit the team's need, and does the team's style fit the player's style? Two, salary cap wherewithal: can the team afford to pay the player the contract with minimal maneuvering? According to Larry Coon, a safe assumption for the salary cap will be $58.5-60 million.For this exercise, we'll go with $60 million for 2013-14.

Josh Smith | PF/SF | New team: Houston Rockets
Suggested contract: $56 million over 4 years (AAV: $14.0 million/year); 2013-14: $13.1 million; 2014-15: $13.7 million; 2015-16: $14.3 million; 2016-17: $14.9 million; player option on last year

Smith

Last October, Rockets general manager Daryl Morey was finally rewarded for years of patience and asset hoarding with the gift of James Harden, who has proven to be one of the most dynamic and, perhaps more importantly, efficient offensive players in the NBA. But while Houston has been stellar offensively this season, their defensive efficiency is still below average (106.1 points allowed per 100 possessions, 17th in NBA), despite the efforts of defensive stalwart Omer Asik. The Rockets lack a long, versatile defender who can guard out on the perimeter as well as protect the rim, and have lacked consistent production from the power forward position since the departure of Patrick Patterson at the trade deadline.

Smith's abilities on both ends of the court fit perfectly with the Rockets' needs. He's a high-wire athlete who would excel in Houston's uptempo attack, versatile enough to play as a stretch PF who can face up and take bigger defenders off the dribble, and can guard multiple positions, particularly out on the wing where the Rockets struggle to contain dribble penetration. Ultimately, Smith would benefit from Houston's stats-driven offensive strategy, which would help him become a much more efficient player from shot selection alone.

The Rockets' cap number is projected to be about $52.4 million, but if they decline the team option on Francisco Garcia ($6.4 million) and waive a nonguaranteed deal like Greg Smith ($884,000) or James Anderson ($916,000), they'll have enough space to offer Josh Smith a deal starting at $13.1 million with 4.5 percent raises every year.

Andrew Bynum | C | New team: Phoenix Suns
Suggested contract: $40 million over 3 years (AAV: $13.3 million/year); 2013-14: $12.8 million; 2014-15: $13.3 million; 2015-16: $13.9 million; prior injury exception language in contract; player option on last year

Bynum

The Suns are a franchise in the midst of a massive overhaul, with a stable of players who, at best, would be complementary pieces on a good team. With no potential star waiting in the wings and no identifiable playing style or identity Phoenix needs a franchise-caliber player to not only build around, but also to rally waning fan support (bottom 10 in attendance and percentage of capacity).

Bynum, when healthy, has proven to be an elite player in the NBA. Of course, Bynum's main flaw is the "when healthy" caveat attached to any compliments to his game. Here's where a move to Phoenix makes the most sense: he not only would benefit from being the Suns' franchise player, he'd also have the opportunity to work with one of the league's best training staffs. The list of players who have found basketball life in Phoenix after everyone has written their careers off is endless (Steve Nash, Grant Hill, Antonio McDyess, Shaquille O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal to name a few). If Bynum is to show the league that he's capable of being relied upon, Phoenix is the place to do it.

Contractually, a three-year deal worth $40 million with language protecting against injury (basically, second-year and third-year guarantees kick in based on games played in prior seasons) would protect the Suns against an albatross deal should Bynum truly be beyond repair. A player option would allow Bynum to tear up his deal and sign one closer to his "true" value should he prove to be healthy. The Suns would need to renounce their free agents (Wes Johnson, Jermaine O'Neal) and Hamed Haddadi ($100,000 2013-14 guarantee) and Shannon Brown ($1.75 million 2013-14 guarantee) to have the cap space to offer Bynum a starting salary of about $12.8 million.

Al Jefferson | C/PF | New team: San Antonio Spurs
Suggested contract: $40 million over 4 years (AAV: $10.0 million/year); 2013-14: $9.4 million; 2014-15: $9.8 million; 2015-16: $10.2 million; 2016-17: $10.6 million

Jefferson

The Spurs are at a peculiar crossroads: one the one hand, they have the best record in the Western Conference -- and probably would have the best record in the league if it weren't for Miami -- and figure to be one of the favorites to win the title this season. On the other hand, they have yet to determine the future stars of the team outside of Tony Parker and, to a much lesser extent, Kawhi Leonard. Further adding to the matter, they have a number of key players due to become free agents: Manu Ginobili, Stephen Jackson, Tiago Splitter, DeJuan Blair and Gary Neal. But the key at this point is how to maximize the last few years of Tim Duncan's career.

Jefferson is an accomplished low-post scorer with the ability to step out and knock down the midrange jumper, but he's a negative on the defensive end. The opportunity to play alongside Duncan and for an accomplished coach like Gregg Popovich would be about the only thing that can save him defensively. Meanwhile, his ability to provide a second offensive workhorse to Parker gives the Spurs an opportunity to stretch the title window.

Because of the number of impending free agents they have, San Antonio will have to exercise some creative bookkeeping and deft timing in consummating deals. In order to fit Jefferson at a starting salary of $9.4 million, they'd have to renounce the rights to Jackson and Blair, waive Matt Bonner (only $1 million guaranteed) ,and then come to terms fairly quickly with Ginobili and Splitter on favorable deals (using the valuations I came up with in my Monday piece, they'd start at $5.3 and $6.5 million, respectively).

Jeff Teague | PG | New team: Utah Jazz
Suggested contract: $30 million over 4 years (AAV: $7.5 million/year); 2013-14: $7.75 million; 2014-15: $7.75 million; 2015-16: $7.75 million; 2016-17: $6.75 million; player option on last year; 10 percent signing bonus applied

Teague

Watching Utah this season, the most glaring need has been at point guard, where they have shuffled in and out a motley crew of players. It should not be lost upon us that the guy who's done the best job at the position technically isn't even a point guard (Alec Burks). And while the Jazz have an exciting collection of young talent (Burks, Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, and Gordon Hayward), they need a dynamic young orchestrator to create offense for others. That player must also be a guardable threat on the court.

Teague's ability to penetrate and get to the rim forces defenses to collapse, which would open up playmaking opportunities for dump offs to bigs like Favors and Kanter. His ability to shoot from the perimeter would also make him a nice fit in the Jazz flex offense.

As Larry Coon pointed out, the Jazz figure to have the second most cap space heading into the offseason, with potentially more than $30 million in room. This gives Utah a lot of flexibility in structuring Teague's offer sheet to make it as unpalatable as possible for Atlanta to match. Other than offering a descending scale contract, they can give Teague a 10 percent signing bonus, which would apply itself equally to all non-option years of the deal. Furthermore, they can arrange to have the cash out payment schedule (i.e. the actual checks that go out) to pay 50 percent of the salary prior to the start of the season.

J.J. Redick | SG | New team: Portland Trail Blazers
Suggested contract: $26 million over 4 years (AAV: $6.5 million/year); 2013-14: $6.1 million; 2014-15: $6.4 million; 2015-16: $6.6 million; 2016-17: $6.9 million

Redick

Like the Suns, the Blazers also hit the reset button this season. Unlike the Suns, the Blazers actually have several assets to get excited about, starting with presumed Rookie of the Year point guard Damian Lillard, All-Star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge, and do-it-all wing Nic Batum. What the Blazers desperately lacked this season was depth; they posted one of the league's worst bench production, and were forced to play a lot of relatively inexperienced players like Luke Babbitt and Will Barton on the wings. They also lacked perimeter shooting, ranking 19th in the league in 3-point percentage this season, with only one player shooting better than 38 percent from 3-point range (Wes Matthews, 40 percent).

Redick has established himself as not only one of the premier 3-point shooters in the league (career 39.0 3-point percentage), but also as a versatile contributor as pick and roll ballhandling option and as an underrated defensive player. He'd not only add veteran leadership to an extremely young team, he'd also fill in those on-court needs and bring depth to the backcourt, either as a reserve or as a starting (sending Matthews to the bench).

Cap-wise, Portland would have to waive Jared Jeffries and Sasha Pavlovic (both fully unguaranteed deals) and renounce free agents Babbitt, Nolan Smith and Elliot Williams (high likely since their team options were all declined prior to the start of the season). They'd also have to come to terms fairly quickly with free agent Eric Maynor to reduce his cap hold to a more manageable number (my suggested contract for him was 2 years, $5 million for an AAV of $2.5 million). Taking those steps would allow them to sign Redick to a deal starting at $6.1 million, while still giving them the flexibility to make a decision on J.J. Hickson without having to renounce his rights.

[macdaddy]

Good old Espn. Always finding great places for the Hawks to give talent to.

Seriously, Josh in Houston is a great move for Houston. (kind of like Harden in Atlanta would have been great). Teague in Utah is a stretch. Why'd they give away Devin? Teague better be playing here next year unless CP3 is coming this way.

Bynum in Phx is a good fit because they have a good training staff? That's like an Onion article.

[ATLSmith]

Thanks.Surprisingly little content regarding the Hawks receiving FA's considering the good cap situation.I must say, Smoove on the Rockets would be interesting.

[Guest]

"He's a high-wire athlete who would excel in Houston's uptempo attack, versatile enough to play as a stretch PF who can face up and take bigger defenders off the dribble."

If Josh did this consistently here in Atlanta he would be getting his 'max' money'. He settles for the long jumper too often.

Where's the information on who could be coming to the Hawks.

[coachx]

Ha !

No way Atlanta does not match a week offer like 4 years and $30 mil for Jeff Teague. How is that "unpalitable for Atlanta to match ?" The writer mentions all the cap room Utah has but failed to mention all the cap room Atlanta has.

Secondly, a combo of Duncan and Jefferson would be an absolute train wreck ! Neither have the foot speed needed to defend on the perimeter as a PF. I'm not crazy over Jefferson but at least Horford has the lateral quickness to defend on the perimeter well enough to play with guy like Jefferson.

I can't believe ESPN actually pays a person who writes garbage like this. I can't believe they pay an editor who give the thumbs up to sheesh like this.

ESPN has the worst writers in the business.

[yungsta]

jbrick doesnt stretch a damn thing :laugh: He actually shrinks the defense because they dont guard him on the perimeter since he is shooting like 20% something percent outside of the paint. Im sure defenses consider it a good defensive possession when it ends in a jbrick jumper.

Im not surprised that we are not any espn free agency dicussion. We are always an after thought. NO way we are letting teague go unless he is offered an absurd amount of money. We have to keep some assets since its very possible we can flop big in free agency.

[Dejay]

So, according to them, we lose Osh and Teague and sign....well....I guess some more D-leaguers, Eurotrash who can't play, and scrubs who couldn't win a game against Eagle's Landing High, even if they were spotted the first ten points.Simply ridiculous...

[MaceCase]

Ha !

No way Atlanta does not match a week offer like 4 years and $30 mil for Jeff Teague. How is that "unpalitable for Atlanta to match ?" The writer mentions all the cap room Utah has but failed to mention all the cap room Atlanta has.

Secondly, a combo of Duncan and Jefferson would be an absolute train wreck ! Neither have the foot speed needed to defend on the perimeter as a PF. I'm not crazy over Jefferson but at least Horford has the lateral quickness to defend on the perimeter well enough to play with guy like Jefferson.

I can't believe ESPN actually pays a person who writes garbage like this. I can't believe they pay an editor who give the thumbs up to sheesh like this.

ESPN has the worst writers in the business.

Well they did go into the exact detail as to how they would structure Jeffrey's contract. In a vacuum yea, the Hawks could match that but the way it would be structured would effect who else the Hawks are going after too. I'm sure you're familiar with poison pills and signing bonuses (*cough* Joe), throw in that the CBA has a shorter matching period now and It's clear to see why Ferry will have to be quick in implementing his offseason plan. As for the Spurs, well I don't know if you would consider Splitter, Diaw, Bonner and Blair nimble or fleet of foot yet they are the bigs that have spent the majority of the season next to Duncan. They are still ranked 3rd in defense despite going to a quicker pace with those bigs so I'd say Pop would work that out.

[capstone21]

Josh would be a good fit next to Harden and Teague would really fit well in Utah. However, I would not let JT go for nothing and I hope we don't lose Josh for nothing either.

[MrMeltdown]

I actually agree they both fit those teams. I think Teague ends up in Sactown where he is wanted and Josh becomes the new Lamar Odom in LA.

[DrReality]

We're SOL. Teague move was a surprise

Edited April 8, 2013 by DrReality

[Kimsey]

JS is a perfect fit in Houston. When they say they are playing a high ocatne style, it's exactly that. With Osik there, it allows him to roam like a dinosaur on defense making him very dangerous.

They already develop D League talent like Greg Smith and Beverly pretty well into their system. Can't blame ESPN for this one, Atlanta hasn't signed a marquee free agent in so long since probably Mutumbo.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

Good ole ESPN... Every article they write just shows their ignorance and hatred of the Hawks more and more... Every time they cover a Hawks game, it always so awkward because they really don't know what to talk about... They usually elude to Josh Smith trade demands which haven't exist all season or admitting that they really don't know what is going on with the Hawks. Having ESPN write/talk about the Hawks is like having a 5 year old talk about physics.

I agree Josh in Houston would be interesting with Harden on the floor with him. Could be a championship caliber team, but it really depends which Josh goes to Houston. Teague on the other hand is a good fit too and it's strange too because Utah's where my 2k13 had Teague signing (not saying 2k13 is a reputable source or anything... It also had Iggy signing with the Hawks), but you really have to wonder what Harris and maybe even Marv has said to Teague about Utah. I have read that Devin hated being in boring Salt Lake and if he has shared these feelings to Teague, then Utah won't happen. Josh is a big possibility, but I don't see Teague being cut loose for anything short of Paul who is an even bigger long shot than getting Dwight. Bynum to Phoenix? Really? Do they think that teams will be too scared to sign him and he'll fall to Phoenix or do they really believe Bynum wants to be there? Why would the Suns go after Bynum when they have Gortat for almost $8 mil. $21 mil invested in the center position seems like a waste. Makes no sense. Bynum to Atlanta does. Jefferson to San Antonio makes sense.

Besides the fanbase, why wouldn't players want to sign in Atlanta? The quality of life in Atlanta is unmatched, the guys that are signed on the team (Horford, Lou, and Jenkins) are guys that FA want to play with, and we have the money. The ASG has tightened up and Danny is a stable mind and is running the ship. Six straight playoff appearances and I believe the fans will come around if you put a championship product on the floor that fans believe in. The Falcons have turned it around and are thinking Super Bowls. The Braves have Heyward, the Upton bros, and a great pitching rotation. They too are thinking championships. It's the Hawks turn now. I really wonder how many ESPN exec's would hang themselves if the Hawks put together a contender, the Braves win the WS, and the Falcons get a SB... Atlanta isn't a bad sports town, it's just that mediocrity has been acceptable for years because the city being full of transplants, but that is no longer true. Blank is determined and now the GA Dome is rocking on Sundays. The Braves have a great team and has the whole city excited. The ASG has turned over a new leaf and if Danny is successful, the fans will come too.

[yungsta]

Besides the fanbase, why wouldn't players want to sign in Atlanta?

its not about not wanting to play in atlanta its about not wanting to play for the hawks and ASG. They dont have a great rep around the league. ASG has a rep of being cheap and worried about profits than winning (which they have failed miserably). It wasnt until this year/offseason that they sent a message saying they are actually committed to winning. It will take years to prove that they actually are and to clean their rep around the league.

Usually I am on the f*** espn bandwagon because they seems to not give a shit about atlanta but I can understand why they wouldnt think any major free agents would want to play for the hawks.

[AHF]

its not about not wanting to play in atlanta its about not wanting to play for the hawks and ASG. They dont have a great rep around the league. ASG has a rep of being cheap and worried about profits than winning (which they have failed miserably). It wasnt until this year/offseason that they sent a message saying they are actually committed to winning. It will take years to prove that they actually are and to clean their rep around the league.

Usually I am on the f*** espn bandwagon because they seems to not give a shit about atlanta but I can understand why they wouldnt think any major free agents would want to play for the hawks.

That still doesn't explain why Atlanta wouldn't match the Teague contract at $7-8M that they have him signing with Utah.

[yungsta]

That still doesn't explain why Atlanta wouldn't match the Teague contract at $7-8M that they have him signing with Utah.

yea I commented earlier in the thread saying that it was absurd to not have us match him when he is our 2nd most valuable asset behind horford.

[MaceCase]

That still doesn't explain why Atlanta wouldn't match the Teague contract at $7-8M that they have him signing with Utah.

Perhaps they see Atlanta splurging all the cap elsewhere by overpaying the guys a tier below?

I know that a big part of the offseason scenarios presented where the team could retain most of the core while also bringing in max cats dealt with keeping enough space below the cap to match Jeffrey's QO figure when signing the others and then at that point being able to go over the cap to give him a larger deal. 7-8 mil already blows that and similar type plans away.

[AHF]

Perhaps they see Atlanta splurging all the cap elsewhere by overpaying the guys a tier below?

I know that a big part of the offseason scenarios presented where the team could retain most of the core while also bringing in max cats dealt with keeping enough space below the cap to match Jeffrey's QO figure when signing the others and then at that point being able to go over the cap to give him a larger deal. 7-8 mil already blows that and similar type plans away.

I agree with your assessment but if ESPN is thinking, "Hmmmm....maybe Atlanta will spend so much money on players inferior to JT that it won't match a 7-8 mil offer on JT" then that is just the kind of stupid and lazy analysis the OP complained about.

Personally, I will be incredibly ticked off if we spent all our cap room on lower tier free agents and locked ourselves right back into mediocrity.

The only scenario that makes sense to me where we don't match a JT 7-8 mil offer is where Ferry decides to go a different direction at PG (like someone drafted or Eric Bledsoe or another FA, etc.).