Not a good feeling

[Buzzard]

Why can't people see this...and how can you just say it with like 3 sentences where it takes me a whole damn book. I'm still all about the CP3/Howard chase. But if that fails, I'm going to say one thing for the record...then I'm going back into my hole.

Write it down...

We will be in this EXACT same position in like 3-5 years if we go the "Plan B" route and start throwing money (and overpaying) for tier 3 and 4 players. We will make the playoffs, peak at 6 games in the 2nd round, and we will be wondering why we are not the preferred destination for Blake Griffin or Derrick Rose or whoever is the top tier of free agents in 5 or so years.

...and I'll say, we should have rebuilt it, and we'll watch Charlotte, New Orleans, and Washington leapfrog us. K...back to waiting on CP3/Howard now.

I forgot about that new CBA rule. Hawks cannot make any trades after the 2013 free agency period for the next 3 to 5 years.

[GameTime]

Why can't people see this...and how can you just say it with like 3 sentences where it takes me a whole damn book. I'm still all about the CP3/Howard chase. But if that fails, I'm going to say one thing for the record...then I'm going back into my hole.

Write it down...

We will be in this EXACT same position in like 3-5 years if we go the "Plan B" route and start throwing money (and overpaying) for tier 3 and 4 players. We will make the playoffs, peak at 6 games in the 2nd round, and we will be wondering why we are not the preferred destination for Blake Griffin or Derrick Rose or whoever is the top tier of free agents in 5 or so years.

...and I'll say, we should have rebuilt it, and we'll watch Charlotte, New Orleans, and Washington leapfrog us. K...back to waiting on CP3/Howard now.

Agreed. I love Reke (at a fair price) But how is this:

PG - Teague

SG - Tyreke

SF - Korver

PF - Horford

C -Al Jefferson

6th - Lou

So much better than this?

PG - Bibby

SG - JJ

SF - Marvin

PF - Smoove

C - Horford

6th - Crawford

I don't think Bron is a free agent this season. There is really nothing to prove. We will court CP3 and D12, that does not mean they will sign with us.

I'm talking about going over the luxury tax for a superstar(s).

[Swatguy]

I won't doom and gloom too much but I will say that I want us to land a star whether through trade, free agency or the draft.

I love our cap position because we can offer something other teams can't - not just max money but the chance to join forces with another star. That is a FA draw that we will destroy if we sign Jefferson/Tyreke etc. I am, however, skeptical of our ability to leapfrog Chicago, Indiana, etc. by going with the Teague/Jefferson/Tyreke road but that is a doom and gloom post for another day.

We have the tale of two teams right now with one with Chris and D12, while the other is the "build" without them. Getting the dynamic duo would be great, it is what we want but it is remote. I'd rather have young talent on the cusp than aging vets that will eat up the cap( Jefferson, Ellis). The two picks in the first round is an opportunity. I am hoping for Plumlee and either Franklin, Larkin, Schröder or Antetukounmpo. As for FA, Iggy maybe.

[AHF]

Lebron James was a #1 pick as was Tim Duncan.

Michael Olowkandi was a #1 pick as was Greg Oden.

These things are not guarantees, but betting on the lottery picks that have evolved to Tier 3 or 4 players in their career while you pay them premium FA prices is a losing proposition. #Al Jefferson/Tyreke Evans.

[AHF]

But how is this:

PG - TeagueSG - TyrekeSF - KorverPF - HorfordC -Al Jefferson

6th - Lou

So much better than this?

PG - BibbySG - JJSF - MarvinPF - SmooveC - Horford

6th - Crawford

Ding...ding...winner, winner chicken dinner.

[Wretch]

I forgot about that new CBA rule. Hawks cannot make any trades after the 2013 free agency period for the next 3 to 5 years.

Let's establish something first: you can't win without exceptional talent. These are your unquestionable MAX free agents. How do you get these guys? You're not trading Lou, Korver, or even Jefferson for that kind of talent. The only thing you could possibly do is trade a known commodity like Horford for a young and unproven talent (you're not trading him for Rose or Griffin). But, moving proven talent for unproven guys...basically puts you back into the lottery - WHICH you are adamantly against.

So you're not going to trade for superstar talent by offering up sub-superstar talent. Trades would involve nothing but lateral moves. You're also not trading Jefferson, Lou, or Teague for a high lottery pick - if you do, it will take a combination of those kinds of players and then what? A) You still end up drafting out of the lottery and B) you end up with a bottom feeder team that ends up in the lottery.

Since you're decidedly against that...your only valid option is free agency - because with a "good" team your drafts are going to be late teens and lower. So...if you fill this team out to make the playoffs, you're eating into that precious cap space and while you'll have a great core in place FOR a superstar, you won't have any money.

That process will take 3-5 years maybe? Then what? Since we are ignoring the draft...you rinse and repeat and do the same thing again.

I've only watched this story a million times.

Agreed. I love Reke (at a fair price) But how is this:

PG - TeagueSG - TyrekeSF - KorverPF - HorfordC -Al Jefferson

6th - Lou

So much better than this?

PG - BibbySG - JJSF - MarvinPF - SmooveC - Horford

6th - Crawford

I'm talking about going over the luxury tax for a superstar(s).

...exactly and you know what? It MIGHT be a better team, but you can count on a team that is not labeled by a "might be." It will be a true contender and I expect the results to be a little different. The only thing that makes the current "plan B" any better is having a true center, with true low post game, playing next to Horford. I might could stomach a year or two to experiment with that...but I'd rather rebuild as a first option.

[NekiEcko]

I think that we need to stay from away from those Tier 3 or 4 players, it will get us back to where we were a couple of years ago. A team that can make the playoffs easy but cant get into the ECF. Then we will be look down by the media again for "being us as usual". Hawks needs to change that label that was given to us. That is the reason why I got a sneaky feeling that one of those 1st round pick in next week draft is going to get traded from more draft choices.

Edited June 19, 2013 by NekiEcko

[TheNorthCydeRises]

He's still an asset. That's the part you guys don't get. He doesn't cost you 8-10 million as a free agent and he's an asset that you can use to move up in the draft, trade for another rising talent, or trade for a proven veteran like Boston did for Garnett/Jesus Shuttlesworth.

...and it's all fun and games until Sacramento or Charlotte or New Orleans drafts that guy that ISN'T Tyreke......

I agree that Tyreke could be an asset. An asset that we could flip, if we added an Al Horford to a trade, to get a disgruntled top 10 player from somewhere else, and build around him.

And Sacramento knows all about "fun and games" in the lottery.

Sacramento 1st round picks since their last playoff appearance in 2006

2012 - Thomas Robinson ( 5th )

2011 - Bismack Biyombo ( 7th ) . . . but traded as part of a deal to bring in Jimmer Fredette and John Salmons

2010 - Demarcus Cousins ( 5th)

2009 - Tyreke Evans ( 4th ) . . . Omri Casspi ( 23rd )

2008 - Jason Thompson ( 12th )

2007 - Spencer Hawes ( 10th )

2006 - Quincy Douby ( 19th )

For every Oklahoma City draft success story, you have 2 or 3 of these.

[PSSSHHHRRR87]

Fantastic post. This Finals going to 7 couldn't be any better for us. Bud: "Imagine a Big 3 under the Spurs system" Wow. Goosebumps.

I said the same thing in the "NBA Finals!" thread. We could end up being one of the greatest teams ever or continue being a laughing stock.

I think the thing that excites me the most about watching the Spurs in the Finals vs. the Heat is getting a preview of what Ferry and Bud hope to accomplish. Basically, they are looking to take these two teams and put them together. Think about that. Think about what Pop could do with LeBron and Wade or, in our case, what Bud could do with CP3, Horf, and Dwight.

[Wretch]

I agree that Tyreke could be an asset. An asset that we could flip, if we added an Al Horford to a trade, to get a disgruntled top 10 player from somewhere else, and build around him.

And Sacramento knows all about "fun and games" in the lottery.

Sacramento 1st round picks since their last playoff appearance in 2006

2012 - Thomas Robinson ( 5th )

2011 - Bismack Biyombo ( 7th ) . . . but traded as part of a deal to bring in Jimmer Fredette and John Salmons

2010 - Demarcus Cousins ( 5th)

2009 - Tyreke Evans ( 4th ) . . . Omri Casspi ( 23rd )

2008 - Jason Thompson ( 12th )

2007 - Spencer Hawes ( 10th )

2006 - Quincy Douby ( 19th )

For every Oklahoma City draft success story, you have 2 or 3 of these.

You are still only looking at the bad side of that. But it still boils down to the simple reality that none of you can get around - you're not winning without an engine. Engines are expensive and hard to come by.

How do we trade for an engine...when we don't have an equally valuable part to give up?

How do we sign a free agent engine...when A) they don't want to come here and B) we spend the money to sign them on...spare parts?

The only other option is the draft and regardless of how you feel about it...these are the only two numbers you need to consider:

1<------------------>10

Between those two numbers is pretty much where you find the future of the NBA. It doesn't matter how many teams fail at the draft, these players that we want so bad are essentially found NOWHERE else. So unless you can pull off a masterful trade for an elite talent or if you can convince an elite talent to play here (and maintain the cap space to sign him BTW...not wasting it on...y'know, Jeffersons and JJ's and such)...then you are going to be looking at rebuilding through the draft.

[Buzzard]

I'm talking about going over the luxury tax for a superstar(s).

We can't do that. We have cap space this year. Its CBA impossible.

Edited June 19, 2013 by Buzzard

[Bahamut]

Somebody said it couldn't be done...

[TheNorthCydeRises]

You are still only looking at the bad side of that. But it still boils down to the simple reality that none of you can get around - you're not winning without an engine. Engines are expensive and hard to come by.

How do we trade for an engine...when we don't have an equally valuable part to give up?

How do we sign a free agent engine...when A) they don't want to come here and B) we spend the money to sign them on...spare parts?

The only other option is the draft and regardless of how you feel about it...these are the only two numbers you need to consider:

1<------------------>10

Between those two numbers is pretty much where you find the future of the NBA. It doesn't matter how many teams fail at the draft, these players that we want so bad are essentially found NOWHERE else. So unless you can pull off a masterful trade for an elite talent or if you can convince an elite talent to play here (and maintain the cap space to sign him BTW...not wasting it on...y'know, Jeffersons and JJ's and such)...then you are going to be looking at rebuilding through the draft.

I'm looking at the "real" side of it.

We had that 1 - 10 pick for 4 straight years.

Childress ( 6 )

Marvin ( 2 )

Shelden ( 5 )

Horford ( 3 )

The only guy who was worth a damn in the long run, was Horford. And even he isn't an "engine" . . more like the "car body"

These are the guys we traded for

Joe Johnson ( 10 )

Jamal Crawford ( 8 )

Mike Bibby ( 2 )

To our credit, we developed Josh Smith ( 17 ) to be one of the top 5 players in his draft class

Getting that "engine" is difficult, no matter which what you go, but especially if you rely on the draft.

Not only do you have to be in position to pick that player, you have to recognize that the player you may already have in that spot, may be less of a player that's on the board at that time.

That's how a player like Stephen Curry ( who had question marks about if he was really a SG in a PG's body ), can fall BELOW Randy Foye, of all people.

That's how Hasheem Thabeet can be picked ahead of James Harden, because Memphis already had a shooter/slasher in Rudy Gay, but needed a center that they THOUGHT Thabeet could be.

And that's why the Cavs are potentially to mess their #1 draft pick up, if they pick a guy like Alex Len or Nerlens Noel over Ben McLemore. They can create enough room under the cap to get them a very good big man in free agency, and draft what could be the best player in the draft to play alongside Kyrie. But let's see if they'll go big instead in the draft.

How do we get an "engine" via a trade? Do like everybody else has done it, in recent years.

Just because the "engine" they obtained wasn't a HEMI, like LeBron or Durant, doesn't make the moves they made less significant for the potential success of the franchise.

[Wretch]

North...The reality is ALSO that we passed on Chris Paul for a forward when we already had plenty. We also allowed a bunch of UFA's kill our draft position the season prior. You can succeed, but you have to be smart about it. Babcock and BK were NOT. ...and an engine is an engine. You either are a franchise changer or you are not. You dont come by one of those if you are not a desired destination or if you do not have the equivalent assets to exchange for one. Which of those two scenarios favors us if we dont land a big ticket free agent this year?

[Wretch]

One more thing. To argue against building through the draft while relying on the failures and misjudgment of mismanagement is the equivalent of arguing against trades/FAcy on the basis of terrible FA signings and lopsided trades. Both have drawbacks/advantages...but the price of FAcy/trades being SUBSTANTIALLY higher.

[AHF]

One more thing. To argue against building through the draft while relying on the failures and misjudgment of mismanagement is the equivalent of arguing against trades/FAcy on the basis of terrible FA signings and lopsided trades. Both have drawbacks/advantages...but the price of FAcy/trades being SUBSTANTIALLY higher.

What? I am totally against signing Chris Paul because we previously signed Speedy Claxton and that was a disaster. Obviously, if our management was incompetent during the BK era it was only because we tanked and had BK signed Tier 2/3 free agents like Kenyon Martin we would have ruled the NBA and be counting not our first championship, not our second, not our third...

[TheNorthCydeRises]

North...The reality is ALSO that we passed on Chris Paul for a forward when we already had plenty. We also allowed a bunch of UFA's kill our draft position the season prior. You can succeed, but you have to be smart about it. Babcock and BK were NOT....and an engine is an engine. You either are a franchise changer or you are not. You dont come by one of those if you are not a desired destination or if you do not have the equivalent assets to exchange for one.Which of those two scenarios favors us if we dont land a big ticket free agent this year?

Or if you're not willing to give up one or more of your main guys.

- The Clippers were willing to give up 2 of their main guys ( Eric Gordon & Chris Kaman ) + a 1st round pick, to get Chris Paul.

- The Knicks gave up mid level talent + a few picks for Carmelo.

- Boston flipped their young talent and future picks ( in which only Al Jefferson was any good ), for Garnett and Allen

- Houston gave up an unproven talent + a pick + a mid-level sharpshooter ( Kevin Martin ), and got Harden.

When Howard was first available, the Hawks didn't even think about offering a significant package for him. They didn't offer anything significant for Paul either.

The minute we drafted Al Horford, a lot of people on this board, and NBA fans in general, felt that we'd have to part wtih one of our guys in order to be better . . . we never did it, and stayed the course.

So here we are now.

- potentially loads of cap space

- two 1st round picks

- a top 20 - 25 player

And if we can't get Paul or Howard, we're supposed to just lay down and die, and play the Lottery? May as well trade Horford in the process, if you're going to do that.

And once you do that, even if we win the lottery, there's no telling how long it will take that "engine" to mature enough as a player, to elevate us to a great level. And we'd have to either draft or add the correct pieces as that "engine" develops into an All-Star or superstar.

We'll see what will happen in Cleveland. They have their potential engine in Kyrie. They have the #1 pick. And they have enough cap space to possibly make a run at at least one free agent. And they have Varejao coming back from injury. Let's see how quickly they get to playoff level, and then contender level.

[AHF]

Let's see how quickly they get to playoff level, and then contender level.

If you are looking for a good case scenario, why wait?

We have already seen those play out even on non-championship teams with the improvement and finals appearances for OKC, CLE, and ORL after they landed a true engine. Cleveland isn't getting an engine out of this draft unless these guys develop well beyond my expectations. I expect there will be multiple engines in next year's draft.

[Wretch]

Or if you're not willing to give up one or more of your main guys.

- The Clippers were willing to give up 2 of their main guys ( Eric Gordon & Chris Kaman ) + a 1st round pick, to get Chris Paul.

- The Knicks gave up mid level talent + a few picks for Carmelo.

- Boston flipped their young talent and future picks ( in which only Al Jefferson was any good ), for Garnett and Allen

- Houston gave up an unproven talent + a pick + a mid-level sharpshooter ( Kevin Martin ), and got Harden.

When Howard was first available, the Hawks didn't even think about offering a significant package for him. They didn't offer anything significant for Paul either.

The minute we drafted Al Horford, a lot of people on this board, and NBA fans in general, felt that we'd have to part wtih one of our guys in order to be better . . . we never did it, and stayed the course.

So here we are now.

- potentially loads of cap space

- two 1st round picks

- a top 20 - 25 player

And if we can't get Paul or Howard, we're supposed to just lay down and die, and play the Lottery? May as well trade Horford in the process, if you're going to do that.

And once you do that, even if we win the lottery, there's no telling how long it will take that "engine" to mature enough as a player, to elevate us to a great level. And we'd have to either draft or add the correct pieces as that "engine" develops into an All-Star or superstar.

We'll see what will happen in Cleveland. They have their potential engine in Kyrie. They have the #1 pick. And they have enough cap space to possibly make a run at at least one free agent. And they have Varejao coming back from injury. Let's see how quickly they get to playoff level, and then contender level.

1) Just like AHF said, you have ALREADY seen it. Countless times. There's no need to wait on Cleveland, just go back to Orlando who has lapped us to the ECF's and Finals several times.

2) The centerpieces most of all the deals you mention are lottery picks:

Eric Gordon, 7th overall

Gallinari, 6th overall

Green, 5th overall (draft day deal)

Jefferson, 15th overall...not a lottery pick, but the 8th seed squeaking into the playoffs, one game away from the lottery is essentially the same thing. Unless you are saying we need to shoot for JUST making the playoffs as an 8th seed, then this is not helping your case.

3) The Rockets acquired James Hardin in a sign and trade... Which just proves my point even further. First, this is the kind of deal that the Hawks are going to be looking for. It is the equivalent of the initial Joe Johnson signing - a young player eager to emerge from the shadows of multiple scoring options featured in the offense ahead of him. While Hardin may prove to be a much better pick up for the Rockets, there is no guarantee that the next star that wants out to prove himself won't be Joe Johnson 2.0.

Secondly, it's a sign and trade. This is the same as free agent shopping in that the targeted player has to want to come HERE. Again, this is not something that the Atlanta Hawks can count as an advantage (putting it mildly).

So, you will have your choice of TWO free agent max deal (or damn near max) options:

A) Unquestionable talent that will command as much money as anybody can throw at them. This is your Lebron, Shaq, CP3, etc. I wouldn't hold my breath on these guys, but y'know...we'll see this off season.

B) Unproven but potential SUPERSTAR talent - these guys have the potential to be franchise changers, but very often end up as mult-imillion dollar mistakes dragged over 5-6 years. I could sit here and fire off a billion of these contracts that teams are desperate to unload every year.

If you can't get Paul or Howard (or that top tier of talent - or option A above), then you have a choice to sign guys that are unproven, underrated, cast off, whatever you want to call them (or option B above). We can't sit here and act like we haven't seen what happens in the playoffs when the Hawks meet those teams with TWO option A/Tier 1 players (Hell, Chicago buzz-sawed us with just ONE!). The net result is an inevitable 2nd round (at best) playoff loss.

You can't improve the team because the best role players, and guys like Ray Allen who are better than just a role player, are going to take LESS MONEY to sign with the teams with the elite talent - because they want to win. So, not only are you NOT signing the top talent...you're also not signing the TOP RESERVES! And the decent talent that you do find, you are pretty much guaranteed to overpay for (they're not going to take the same money to play for us when they can take that money from Chicago, Miami, OKC, or the Spurs).

...and you're stuck with your 18th pick in the 2015 draft and you select Doughanno Laudergray, from Iowa State University.

[Wretch]

What? I am totally against signing Chris Paul because we previously signed Speedy Claxton and that was a disaster. Obviously, if our management was incompetent during the BK era it was only because we tanked and had BK signed Tier 2/3 free agents like Kenyon Martin we would have ruled the NBA and be counting not our first championship, not our second, not our third...

I mean seriously, right!?!?

SERIOUSLY.......!!!!! It is the same logic.