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MEGA Tank Thread - Post ALL New Tanking Discussion Here


Diesel

  

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Surfing the Milwaukee Board. This is what they are saying about us...

Over at Peachtree Hoops, a lot of fans are ready to see him go, while many others don't love him, but think that the price is right where they expected it to be and believe they should match

There is definitely some grass is greener stuff going on, on both sides. Atlanta fans are ready to dump Teague, if they can sign either Ellis or Jennings to the exact same deal (fat ƒ^©%ing chance). There is a strong preference for Ellis. Those that support Jennings cite his youth cough and potential (must . suppress . laughter). One poster even thought that Jennings would be an All-Star if he played for Atlanta instead of Milwaukee and had the right cast around him (I believe that cast would be the 1992 Dream Team). A small minority want to let Teague walk, not get Jennings or Ellis, and give the keys to Schröder, a young, untested European who might just turn things around. I hope I’m not the only one with a major case of Déja Vú.

It would seem that Atlanta and Milwaukee are sister cities. We have owners that want to compete for a middling seed each year, we have unexciting young points whose main calling card is inconsistency and main asset is that they have many years ahead of themselves before the league figures out that they are journeymen at best. We have fan bases clamoring for a rebuild and a GM sending mixed signals (they signed Korver, we signed the all-retread squad). I could go on, but a severe case of depression is setting in.

Excuses are monuments of nothingness which build bridges to nowhere, and all those who use them will amount to nothingness - Brandon Jennings, trying to sound philosophical, not exactly the next Aristotle

Posted Image the right cast around him line eh?

Seen a few of our posters say the same thing, it grows thin.

Best part of playing with the Bucks is @zaza27 will be next to me a show everyone I'm just #2 in the #bigheads ranking!!! LOL -Carlos Delfino

Posted Image Remember the "At least we get to match any offer made to him because he'll be restricted, he's sure to become an all-star before his time is up with us" line?

That was a classic. Or how about “Sure, he’s an asshole, but he’s got superstar potential and swagger, so it’s worth it.” Heck, I even believed that one for a while.

Excuses are monuments of nothingness which build bridges to nowhere, and all those who use them will amount to nothingness - Brandon Jennings, trying to sound philosophical, not exactly the next Aristotle

by MadTown Hoops on Jul 11, 2013 | 6:59 AM up reply
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shows exactly how effing ridiculous alot of the members of this board are smh

So is the GM and coach "ridiculous" as well if they don't match?

What is ridiculous is the same poster making 3-4 thread topics a day about how the Hawks are being destroyed by Ferry.

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Uhm.... This is an error. The original post was about Matching Teague.. not tanking.

My fault... I totally missed that. I guess I'm expecting every other new thread to be about tanking / burning it down / etc ... since every other thread has been.

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OMG seriously, another burn it down / tanking thread? I'm seriously about to start banning that topic around here. Posted Image

Please do. He's only doing it to be confrontational. And I'm sure I'm not the only one that's beginning to find it unbearable.
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A while back, I posted a post about Welfare Mentality. I related Atlanta Fans and FO (at that time) to Welfare mothers who have children just to see an increase in their welfare benefits. It was a common stereotype about welfare and it fit the discussion at the time. The reason why is because it became sad to come here and listen to fans who continually cried for our team to develop losers mentalities to keep getting shots in the lottery. My point then is that the road of welfare mentality is not one where you want to try to develop future stars in. At the time, we had Joe, Josh, Josh, Marvin, and Shelden. Fresh off of two bad picks from the lottery, I didn't see the benefit in us going after another lottery pick by tanking again.

Here was my rationale..

The same way that fictitious welfare mother brings those children into an environment where there's no love, no structure, and the only reason they are there is to increase the dependence on the welfare system... Is the same way the Hawks were growing it's team. I.e. there was no structure, no fan support and every move that was made lost more fans and more respect among FAs. IN essence, a cycle of dependence was being developed whereby the team would not be able to get good FAs, so it will always be dependent on the Welfare system called the lottery.

Fortunately, we went to the playoffs and we entered into "the treadmill". However, in going to the treadmill, we did nothing to improve the welfare state that we had made. We are still not able to get good FAs. We were still not able to count on a fanbase that will follow us.

Then... a new GM comes to town with talk of changing the culture.

He realized that we had come out of the projects or trailer park or what have you and said, even though you have came out of those situations, I want to change your culture.

What Ferry recognized is that we were "underwater" in our house payment and every month, we were neglecting some bills to pay the mortgage. He told us that we have "too much house". So the first thing he did was send away our sources of income. AND HE DIDN'T replace them. Ferry tried to get a steady source of income into the house, but that failed. After that, he had no plan.

So now, here we are again. We're vacating the house that we couldn't afford any longer and we're moving back to the projects or trailer park or what have you. Now, we have some who are saying we need to get welfare again. Others who are saying we need to work and save and get back on our feet and buy a house that we can afford and try to send our kids off to college.

But the thing we all need to see is that Ferry is an elitist. He comes from the good side of town. He has always known how to live rich. He didn't earn it, it was given to him. So he feels if he just did the things that he saw his father do, he can help us change the culture around here. What Ferry failed to understand is that some time ago, while he was in Europe, his Father was hundreds of Millions of dollars playing the lottery. So his father lucked upon money. When you have hundreds of Millions of dollars, it's very easy to make it seem like you had a plan. In fact, his father wrote a book about maintaining hundreds of millions of Dollars. Ferry is a disciple of that book. In that book it says that whenever you want FAs, just tell them what you need and they will come running. IN that book it says, if you just show that you're a winner, the fans will show up. Unfortunately others have tried to move up using Ferry's daddy's book and they haven't been successful. Mike Brown took the book and couldn't win with Lebron or Kobe. P.J. Carlisimo couldn't do anything in PTL, Chicago, or NJ. Monty Williams is trying to use the book in N.O., Avery Johnson has been successful but was fired in Brooklyn after being coach of the month, Vinny Del Negro has failed with the book in Chicago and LAC, Jacque Vaughn has his copy in Orlando.

The thing is that Ferry's Daddy's book will only work if you have lottery winnings working for you. And even with that, it doesn't build a system for you. It doesn't change a culture for you. All it does is establishes the one truth in this business. With talent (the source), you can't succeed.

Another thing about most of the coaches who used Ferry's Daddy's book... DId you notice that most of them who were fired were fired because they had issues with players?

Avery Johnson -

Vinny Del Negro -

PJ Carlisimo

Mike Brown

Ferry in Cleveland -

I'm going to give it some time, but something tells me that the elitist in Ferry is going to be to his downfall. IN order to change this culture, you have to be willing to drop the elitism that you learned from your father and cater to the players who play this game.

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Oh yeah.

The second part of this is that the Fans here need to understand that you shouldn't make decision of who we should sign or who should start based on the motive that we do it to tank. We have Ferry who is going by his daddy's book at the helm. He doesn't know to tank... and he won't purposely tank but if you leave him alone with his elitist attitude, we will tank all by ourselves.

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Let's examine our two signings. I believe Hawks fans are standing at a diverging road and we don't know what's going on. I have the proof. It's this poll.

1 question my friends. This question leads to a proof of concept.

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I've got some lottery numbers to bring to the tanking party!

Summarizing results in the 15 NBA lotteries from 1999* to 2013, my read is that any team interested in tanking should not go-for-broke for the league's worst record, unless they're assured there are at least 5 slam-dunk stars to be plucked at the top of the upcoming draft.

(* 1999 was first year lottery was modified to give worst untied team 25.0% chance of winning #1 pick, and the best non-playoff team 0.5% chance; worst team assured of no worse than the #4 pick since 1994)

Number of "worst teams" winning #1 pick: 2 (out of 15; Cleveland in 2003 and Orlando in 2004)

Average Season-Winning Pct. of worst teams: 20.1% (equivalent to 16.5 wins)

Average Slot Position Post-Lotto of worst teams: 2.6

Eventual Slot Positions of last 15 worst teams: #1 (2 times out of 15), #2 (6 times), #3 (3 times), #4 (4 times)

Average Probability of worst teams winning #1 pick: 24.7% (Cleveland and Denver tied at 22.5% in 2003, Golden State and Chicago tied at 22.5% in 2002)

Average Season-Winning Pct. of "Lotto-winning teams": 31.4% (equivalent to 25.75 wins)

Average Pre-Lotto Slot Position of Lotto-winning teams: 4.7

Pre-Lotto Slot Positions of Lotto-winning teams: #1 (2 times out of 15), #2 (0 times), #3 (4 times), #4 (1 time), #5 (3 times), #6 (1 time), #7 (2 times), #8 (1 time), #9 (1 time)

Average Pre-Lotto Probability of Lotto-winning teams winning #1 pick: 11.6% (less than half that of the worst teams)

Average Number of Additional Games Won by Lotto-winning teams (relative to worst teams): 8.8

Number of Top 3 teams finishing with the Top 3 picks: All 3 teams (0 times out of 15), 2 of the 3 teams (8 times), 1 of the 3 teams (6 times), None of the 3 teams (1 time, in 2007)

Number of Times a team received the Top 3 picks, by Pre-Lotto slot: Worst team -- 11 times out of 15 (73.3%), 2nd worst team -- 5 times out of 15 (33.3%), 3rd worst team -- 6 times out of 15 (40.0%)

~lw3

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^One more item from the numbers I summarized above:

7 of the 15 "worst teams" (since 1999) finished the season with a winning percentage below 20 percent. None of those 7 won the top pick in the draft via the lottery. The worst of the lottery winners was Cleveland in 2003 (20.7%).

~lw3

Edited by lethalweapon3
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TANKING is so damn stupid more importantly tanking for the same damn players is even dumber! Why would we tank go the same exact players as everyone else?!You guys are smart but your not thinking correctly! We had a better shot getting Paul and Howard this off season than trying to tank for wiggins and other players that 8 other teams are going after!First off the lottery is very unfair! History has shown that so it would be dumb for ferry to tank!Second have you guys not paid attention to teams that has tanked the last 10 seasons or so?! They never rebound and worst when they do rebound it takes them 7 or 8 years to do so.Third tanking is the worst thing a nba franchise can do!...remember this isn't the nfl where you can lose every game and be guranteed the 1st pick of the draft and possibly get in the playoffs the next season (COLTS)! No people this is the NBA large market teams hold an advantage and tanking even for large market teams has never worked! Look at the Knicks!....finally they are good again and finally they have a star again and their a large market team!Tanking is not an option people and ferry knows this. We are not tanking...sorry if you're too blind to see this.

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Ya just gotta love a MEGA Tank thread where the poll has 1 vote for "Tank."

~lw3

That is because very few of us believe in "tanking" and the question was asked what the Korver/Millsap signings meant for the team - which is basically asking what we think Ferry is doing. The answer to that is pretty straightforward I think.

The bigger problem here is that there are three different promoters: tanking, rebuilding, & retooling.

People that are promoting tanking are talking about securing a terrible record and trying to win the lottery. People against that are basically saying that trying to win the lottery is a long shot. These numbers regarding the lottery winners and their relevance to their teams winning championships is pointless. In the first place, you're only talking about the top 3 picks...which would exclude conversations about Kobe, Dirk, Barkley, CP3, Pierce, Wade, and many more. Secondly, relating that exclusively to championships excludes contenders. None of that takes into account two MAJOR factors that you cannot quantify:

#1 - The APPEAL of your team to free agents should you acquire an elite talent

#2 - The POTENTIAL of a lottery pick or a player drafted IN the lottery and their TRADE value

This would be the starting point for conversation with me about how to improve the team. I want nothing to do with being a lottery team every year and ignoring free agency and trades. I believe that building a championship team requires that we not exclude ANY method for acquiring elite talent - especially not a notable source for ELITE assets

Which is where we enter the Danny Ferry/Win without losing conversation. Because the only way to secure high draft picks, other than dupe someone into giving you one via shortsighted trade, is to miss the playoffs. Danny Ferry is building a team that will make the playoffs every year, so you can pretty much write off drafting high. What he's doing though is replacing what we have.

Hence...JJ gone, incoming Lou + shooters.

Smoove & ZaZa gone, incoming Millsap and Brand.

The net result will be what actually? If it's the 2nd round, which would be an improvement mind you, what have we gained? This is where the last line of defense shouts, "Rome wasn't BUILT in a day!" To that, I would only add three things:

This is your team. This is IT. There is no grand scheme here. It is patched up retooling and you can expect it from Ferry every year. These are not high quality assets we're stockpiling. So you're fooling yourself if you think we're going to flip this junk for the kind of talent that will put us over. Lastly, you've got 3 guaranteed years of being able to build around Horford.

We need elite talent and I just don't see how we're going to get it this way. I'd love for you guys to illustrate a scenario for me though.

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What's a good example of a NON-playoff team that successfully acquired a free agent star in the offseason and then advanced at least to the Conference Finals within two years? How many instances of this do we have out there?

If I'm recalling right, the Heatles were a first-round exit to Woody's Hawks pre-LeBron, while the Rockets were first-rounders pre-Dwight, although if they make the WC Finals next season, Harden may satisfy the criteria above.

D-Rose (non-free agent, acquired via lotto-ball draft) comes instantly to mind, but even the Bulls were first-round exits in his first two seasons.

I found Jason Kidd (acquired via summertime trade in 2001, I don't think he was a free agent), got New Jersey to back-to-back Finals the next two seasons.

Also Tim Duncan (non-free agent, acquired via lotto-ball draft, after the season where their already-star David Robinson got hurt and played just 6 games), helped the Spurs to win their first Finals two seasons later. Up until that magical season, the Admiral was in his 9th season and only reached the Conference Finals once.

KG and Ray Allen? Leading to the 2008 title, both were acquired in summer 2007 deals, although neither were free agents that summer.

~lw3

Edited by lethalweapon3
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What's a good example of a NON-playoff team that successfully acquired a free agent star in the offseason and then advanced at least to the Conference Finals within two years? How many instances of this do we have out there?

If I'm recalling right, the Heatles were a first-round exit to Woody's Hawks pre-LeBron, while the Rockets were first-rounders pre-Dwight, although if they make the WC Finals next season, Harden may satisfy the criteria above.

D-Rose (non-free agent, acquired via lotto-ball draft) comes instantly to mind, but even the Bulls were first-round exits in his first two seasons.

I found Jason Kidd (acquired via summertime trade in 2001, I don't think he was a free agent), got New Jersey to back-to-back Finals the next two seasons.

Also Tim Duncan (non-free agent, acquired via lotto-ball draft, after the season where their already-star David Robinson got hurt and played just 6 games), helped the Spurs to win their first Finals two seasons later. Up until that magical season, the Admiral was in his 9th season and only reached the Conference Finals once.

KG and Ray Allen? Leading to the 2008 title, both were acquired in summer 2007 deals, although neither were free agents that summer.

~lw3

I agree with you. I think I need to say this about a hundred jillion times, but I don't believe that you can just magically draft your whole team. How many different times and in different ways can I say that? This is what we agree on.

Building a contending team doesn't magically happen after you "draft the next Kevin Durant."

I DON'T believe that.

I DON'T believe that.

I DON'T believe that.

I DON'T believe that.

That is not my point of view.

That is not my point of view.

That is not my point of view.

That is not my point of view.

So, this is your point here. That lottery teams/non-playoff teams, don't just draft a superstar and then *poof* start making the playoffs and/or turn into contenders. What we're talking about is something I've followed since around 1993 when Orlando won the draft lottery 2 years in a row and traded down for Penny. I know that building a team doesn't work like that.

What I keep telling you guys is that the most important aspect of turning a team around is a phenomenal player. Teams just don't give them up and those kinds of players are EXTREMELY selective of the teams they will sign with. Which is the uphill battle you're facing if you're not trying to secure that kind of player though means of or relating to the NBA Draft Lottery.

Why the lottery and not just the draft? If you comb through the draft year after year you will see the standout players. There are only 2-3 of them in any given year, and there isn't a Duncan, LeBron, or Iverson every year. All of these players, while not all being legendary, are ALL elite. The ELITE talent is what we need - it fills arenas, draws free agents, and creates a foundation to build on. The elite talent is pretty much found only in a window that is exclusive to NON PLAYOFF TEAMS. Point is...if it sucks trying to fish elite talent out of that window then it SUCKS elephant balls trying to do it ANYWHERE else in the draft.

So do you have to draft that kind of talent and why does that have anything to do with us? Because, as a PERPETUAL, non-contender, playoff team...you are not going to have a crack at that window and you're not going to advance beyond the true contenders. Which means, your hope is either a) these spare parts built around Horford can contend b) you can flip these spare parts for an elite player or c) you can draft a Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, or Patrick Ewing (GL on getting an impact big like that) with mid-late 1st round picks.

It is my POINT that the overwhelming majority of these teams ARE NOT building like that:

Contender: 2002 New Jersey Nets

Key Players:

Jason Kidd - From Derrick Coleman #1 draft pick NBA Draft Lottery, traded for Shawn Bradley 2nd overall pick NBA Draft Lottery, traded for Sam Cassell, traded for Stephon Marbury, who ended up as Jason Kidd in New Jersey

Kieth Van Horn - 2nd overall pick 1997 NBA Draft Lottery, swapped for the the overall pick 1997 NBA Draft Lottery

Kerri Kittles - 8th pick 1996 NBA Draft Lottery

Kenyon Martin - First overall selection 2000 BA Draft Lottery

Contender: 1999 New York Knicks

Key Player: Patrick Ewing...no more discussion necessary.

Contender: 2001 Milwaukee Bucks

Key Players:

Ray Allen - (5th overall selection, draft day trade for the 4th overall selection 1996 NBA Draft Lottery)

Big Dog - 1st overall pick 1994 NBA Draft Lottery

Contender: 2006 Miami Heat

Key Players:

Dywane Wade - 5th overall selection, 2003 NBA Draft Lottery

Shaq - Traded for Caron Butler (10th overall selection Miami Heat, 2002 NBA Draft Lottery) and Lamar Odom still a lottery pick, but one the Heat picked up off of RFA status after Clips declined to match. Should be noted here that both of these properties were used for this trade. And you still need the damn lottery pick to make it happen.

Contender: 2010 Phoenix Suns

Key Players

Steve Nash - *gasp* not a lottery pick, but just outside at 15th overall and *gasp* free agent signing

Amare Stoudemire - *gasp* not a free agent, drafted 9th overall 2002 NBA Draft Lottery

Contender: 2002 Sacramento Kings

Key Players:

Chris Webber: Billy Owens (3rd overall selection 1991 NBA Draft Lottery), traded for Mitch Richmond (5th overall selection 1988 NBA Draft Lottery), traded for Chris Webber 1st overall selection 1993 NBA Draft Lottery and swapped for Penny Hardaway 3rd overall pick NBA Draft Lottery

Mike Biby: Selected 2nd overall 1998 NBA Draft Lottery and swapped for White Chocolate selected 7th overall pick 1998 NBA Draft Lottery

Peja Stojackovich - 14th overall selection 1996 NBA Draft Lottery

Today's Houston Rockets who now have Dwight Howard because they have James Harden

Key Player:

James Bigbearded-assed Harden - Selected in the lottery by OKC, playing 3rd fiddle to Durant/Westbrook, unproven, wanted out, CHOSE to agree to a SnT with Houston who gave up their 2012 LOTTERY PICK ROOKIE and a SECOND LOTTERY PICK that could have been as high as #4 OVERALL 2013 NBA Draft Lottery

See a pattern here? You should....

I know these transactions in general, because I watched them happen...many while we were "winning without losing." I know them in detail because I can read and I know how to surf the Internet for specifics. These are just handful of teams that I plucked out of my head and looked up. NONE OF THESE TEAMS WERE BUILT ONLY THROUGH THE DRAFT. ALL OF THESE TEAMS USED THEIR OWN STINKY LOTTERY PICK to either SELECT A KEY CORNERSTONE or TRADE FOR A KEY CORNERSTONE.

Now...toss in your OKC, Derrick Rose, Dirk, LeBron, Big 3 Celtics, Bird's Celtics, Magic's Lakers, Zeke's Pistons, Jordan's Bulls, Shaq's Magic, Duncan's Spurs, ROBINSON'S Spurs...and your own Atlanta Hawks living off of the #3 overall pick in the 2007 NBA Draft...the shit starts to get pretty damn clear. ESPECIALLY when you take away the lottery component of all of these teams - y'know, the thing you guys (and Danny Ferry) thinks we can UTTERLY do without.

You can dig and dig. But at the root of these teams...at their heart and soul, you are going to find some kind of connection to the UPPER part of the draft. Why? Because that's where the elite talent is. Why is that important? Because teams know how hard it is to find these talents, know that these talents make OODLES of money, and they know that these talents turn franchises around...so you're going to need more than Millsap, a farted out Brand, and Korver to trade for it. These ELITE free agents...well, goddamn man...can you guys NOT see where they are going? They go where the Elite talent/management is....

Elite Talent/Management...does that describe the Hawks?

Hmmm?

I agree with you guys. You need defense, rebounding, awesome coaching (my 3 favorite NBA related things), talent, trades, free agency, maybe even luck...but you have to explore every option available and not discount anything. Unfortunate, for seemingly the second era...we are ignoring the gold mine area thinking we can do it otherwise.

If you worship wordplay (semantics) and minutia..then you can take everything I just posted and twist it to appear differently based upon different eras and the collective bargaining of the NBA. That line of thinking is nothing more than a house of cards that is going to burn up under the hard light of the truth. Moreover, all that matters is today is...

- You have to right to your own rookies for like 8-10 years (I think, somebody CBA-slap me on Bird Rights and extensions. I'm too lazy to look it up...errr doi dur I DUM WretCHy manz) if they don't play out the year after the QO.

- You have the right to give your own free agents more money and more years than anyone else, and there are nasty penalties for guys like Tony Stark should they want to buy an NBA Franchise toy.

Which means...TODAY you have an umbrella of protection to help you manage your POTENATIAL franchise changing assets.

All I'm really saying is...for the love of cheese toast and grape Kool-Aid...in this jacked up position we're in we would be foolish to put all of our eggs in the trade market (where we don't have much to offer outside of Horford) in the free agent market (do we have to talk about this again) or non-lottery picks (go ahead and look at all the elite talent found EVERYWHERE else in the draft OUTSIDE of the lottery).

We don't need to "DUR TANKz it FER DA WIGGEINS AND DER NEZXT MIKKIE JERdANS!"

We need to rebuild. Period. Scrap this damn thing and pick up some REAL assets. Which is the one certain thing in all of this. If you miss the playoffs (which don't mean shit if you're stuck in the 1st/2nd round)...then you are guaranteed to get...*holy enlightenment noise* and NBA Draft Lottery Pick.

We need to use that to try and acquire a piece that we can build AROUND...and not try to build a nest for the perfect free agent to take pity on us.

///Unnecessary reading unless you want to know some backgound on Wretch////

...and I just want to stop here for all the lunatics that think I was just, born yesterday and don't know anything about the NBA. Thinking about the above draft brings up a pointless piece of information that still hangs around in my brain. I recall Magic Johnson offering advice to the Orlando Magic front office...saying that PG/Big makes more sense and will be more potent than Big/Big since the Magic were torn on whether or not to draft Chris Webber.

I have TONS of that shit in my head as it pertains to the NBA and it would take a book, and more verbiage than anyone cares to read, for me to type up all the information I've absorbed watching the draft unfold, watching free agents sign, and following the ENTIRE NBA as it has unfolded over 30 years. I've had my share of questions and conversation about all manner of things NBA related - from players' resistance to monetary and/or competitive changes in the CBA to controversial playoff games (LAL/Sac 2002) to draft busts to draft goofs. Why...? Because I'm a HAWKS FAN...

...and being a Hawks fan since 1985 meant the season was over pretty much after the playoffs got started - all that was left were the contenders (the Lakers being the team i started following in '83) and the NBA draft. That is where my opinion on team building is formed - not from arrogant jacknobs that think they have a place above everyone else. I may sound like a goofy, fact stretching, lazy knucklehead born 15 years ago, but I can assure any of you in here I am decidedly not.

I am a 20 year computer analyst, father of 4 (including a mouthy teenager), husband of 2 decades, college graduate with a BS in Information Technology and a handful of professional certifications that'll make the average non-technical types hemorrhage in the brain... And I have been fan of the NBA, ESPECIALLY the NBA draft, and the Atlanta Hawks for like 30 long and grueling years. My fortes are English, analysis/diagnosis, problem solving, and all manner of creative design.

Point? I think I can handle the intricacies of league ownership, collective bargaining, and human athletes who throw balls at rings for a living. Anybody that can read and surf the Internet can do the same.

///End Unneccessary reading///

Edited by Wretch
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