ESPN WARP Rankings - Where are the Hawks?

[AHF]

I will update this with the new positions but so far Brian Doolittle has posted projections for the PG and SG positions. Our leader in the Atlanta clubhouse so far is Lou Williams.

PG

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9517977/nba-projecting-top-10-point-guards-warp-2013-14

Neither Teague nor Schröder rank in the top 16 (top 15 plus Rondo are the ones discussed).

SG

6. Louis Williams, Atlanta Hawks

Projected 2013-14 WARP: 6.1

Williams is tough to classify in terms of position, but I think it's safe to say his game is more of a 2-guard than a 1. When healthy, Sweet Lou is one of the most efficient scorers in the league, with a terrific complement of volume, foul-drawing, playmaking and a solid, but not spectacular, deep stroke. He's also coming off a major knee injury, and you have to be concerned that the quickness and explosion Williams has relied upon will be diminished. For what it's worth, I saw him walking around my hotel in Las Vegas and he looked fine. Unfortunately, it wasn't on a basketball court.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9531354/nba-projecting-top-10-shooting-guards-warp-2013-14

It is unclear whether Korver is considered a SG or SF for this purpose but he doesn't appear in the top 18. For those curious, Joe Johnson falls in the 16-18 category so these projections have us having upgraded substantially at the 2 for a fraction of the cost.

[gurpilo]

Really???? Teague out of the top 15 and Lou the 6th???? Could you post the complete rankings?, I'm eager to know wich PGs are ahead of Teague and which SG are below Lou, I would not put Lou on the top 15 certainly.

[AHF]

PG:

1 - Chris Paul

2 - Russell Westbrook

3 - Kyrie Irving

4 - Stephen Curry

5 - Deron Williams

6 - Mike Conley

7 - Derrick Rose

8 - Kyle Lowry

9 - Ty Lawson

10 - Damian Lillard

11 - 15: Kemba Walker, John Wall, Tony Parker, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio

Other Mentioned: Rajon Rondo

SG:

1 - Dwyane Wade

2 - James Harden

3 - Manu Ginobili

4 - Kobe Bryant

5 - Bradley Beal

6 - Louis Williams

7 - JR Smith

8 - Danny Green

9 - Monta Ellis

10 - Kevin Martin

11-15: Vince Carter, Wesley Matthews, Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton, Eric Gordon

16-18: Klay Thompson, Joe Johnson, DeMar DeRozan

There are definitely debatable rankings and a separate debate on the usefulness of the WARP number which comes from Basketball Prospectus. These rankings are not directly supposed to be who is the best player but predicting who will generate the highest WARP number. (And then that WARP number is supposed to reflect the value of the player that season).

Looking at the SG ranks, it just affirms the world of suck that position is in today. Anyone who did the summer dynasty draft got a good taste of that too. There are a few studs and a lot of blech. Conversely, the PG position is very deep today.

[Wretch]

PG:

1 - Chris Paul

2 - Russell Westbrook

3 - Kyrie Irving

4 - Stephen Curry

5 - Deron Williams

6 - Mike Conley

7 - Derrick Rose

8 - Kyle Lowry

9 - Ty Lawson

10 - Damian Lillard

11 - 15: Kemba Walker, John Wall, Tony Parker, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio

Other Mentioned: Rajon Rondo

SG:

1 - Dwyane Wade

2 - James Harden

3 - Manu Ginobili

4 - Kobe Bryant

5 - Bradley Beal

6 - Louis Williams

7 - JR Smith

8 - Danny Green

9 - Monta Ellis

10 - Kevin Martin

11-15: Vince Carter, Wesley Matthews, Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton, Eric Gordon

16-18: Klay Thompson, Joe Johnson, DeMar DeRozan

There are definitely debatable rankings and a separate debate on the usefulness of the WARP number which comes from Basketball Prospectus. These rankings are not directly supposed to be who is the best player but predicting who will generate the highest WARP number. (And then that WARP number is supposed to reflect the value of the player that season).

Looking at the SG ranks, it just affirms the world of suck that position is in today. Anyone who did the summer dynasty draft got a good taste of that too. There are a few studs and a lot of blech. Conversely, the PG position is very deep today.

Well damn.......lol

[gurpilo]

PG:

1 - Chris Paul

2 - Russell Westbrook

3 - Kyrie Irving

4 - Stephen Curry

5 - Deron Williams

6 - Mike Conley

7 - Derrick Rose

8 - Kyle Lowry

9 - Ty Lawson

10 - Damian Lillard

11 - 15: Kemba Walker, John Wall, Tony Parker, Jose Calderon, Ricky Rubio

Other Mentioned: Rajon Rondo

SG:

1 - Dwyane Wade

2 - James Harden

3 - Manu Ginobili

4 - Kobe Bryant

5 - Bradley Beal

6 - Louis Williams

7 - JR Smith

8 - Danny Green

9 - Monta Ellis

10 - Kevin Martin

11-15: Vince Carter, Wesley Matthews, Tyreke Evans, Marcus Thornton, Eric Gordon

16-18: Klay Thompson, Joe Johnson, DeMar DeRozan

There are definitely debatable rankings and a separate debate on the usefulness of the WARP number which comes from Basketball Prospectus. These rankings are not directly supposed to be who is the best player but predicting who will generate the highest WARP number. (And then that WARP number is supposed to reflect the value of the player that season).

Looking at the SG ranks, it just affirms the world of suck that position is in today. Anyone who did the summer dynasty draft got a good taste of that too. There are a few studs and a lot of blech. Conversely, the PG position is very deep today.

I donn't know about WARP and how well it reflects how good a player is but in my opinion Jeff is better than Lowry, Walker and Calderon, makes me feel better than Lowry is ahead of Parker (UOWWWW), Lawson or Lillard and Irving ahead of Rose. Rondo out of the 16th, really????

On the SG, really surprised about Beal, but I agree, he is a heck of a player, but I would definately have Monta Ellis, Thornton, Matthews, Evans, JR Smith, Klay Thompson, De Rozan.... ahead of Lou Williams.

[Nicholasp27]

Really???? Teague out of the top 15 and Lou the 6th???? Could you post the complete rankings?, I'm eager to know wich PGs are ahead of Teague and which SG are below Lou, I would not put Lou on the top 15 certainly.

Of course you wouldn't, because u underrate hawks players and overrate other teams' playersYou have grass is greener syndrome and prolly think lolellis is better than lou

[AHF]

I donn't know about WARP and how well it reflects how good a player is but in my opinion Jeff is better than Lowry, Walker and Calderon, makes me feel better than Lowry is ahead of Parker (UOWWWW), Lawson or Lillard and Irving ahead of Rose. Rondo out of the 16th, really???? On the SG, really surprised about Beal, but I agree, he is a heck of a player, but I would definately have Monta Ellis, Thornton, Matthews, Evans, JR Smith, Klay Thompson, De Rozan.... ahead of Lou Williams.

Remember this is a stat. If you play more minutes you get a higher number (assuming same level of good play) just like win shares, etc. Rondo is expected to miss a lot of minutes. Rose is an injury risk.Supposedly that is factored into the SG numbers as well (not sure how).

[NBASupes]

Jeff should not be in the top 15 in PG poll. He is around 18-20 at best. He is as mediocre as the Hawks.

[Randy]

Just reading the description of this metric made my eyes glaze over. This WARP rating sounds like "Basketball Player Rating as Told by the Brothers Grimm:"

[BrazilianHawk]

Jeff should not be in the top 15 in PG poll. He is around 18-20 at best. He is as mediocre as the Hawks.

And as mediocre as some Hawks "fans"... Or should I say Pelicans fans. Never mind, just kidding.

Teague is better than Kemba and Lowry, for sure.

Calderon is underrated. He's easily a top 10 PG IMO, despite not playing a lick of D.

Just reading the description of this metric made my eyes glaze over. This WARP rating sounds like "Basketball Player Rating as Told by the Brothers Grimm:"

What does WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) Mean?

A metric that determines the value of a player by (theoretically) putting him on the basketball floor with four "average" players, and compares that to the team results if those four average players were on the floor with a "replacement-level" player. A replacement-level player is one considered to be below average.

Utterly useless stat, no doubt.

[gurpilo]

Of course you wouldn't, because u underrate hawks players and overrate other teams' playersYou have grass is greener syndrome and prolly think lolellis is better than lou

???? Read it again please and now pay attention and try to understand what you read...And Ellis is better than Lou, there is a reason teams are willing to pay him10M$ and not to Lou... Edited August 3, 2013 by gurpilo

[bird_dirt]

What does WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) Mean?

A metric that determines the value of a player by (theoretically) putting him on the basketball floor with four "HAWKS" players, and compares that to the team results if those four HAWKS players were on the floor with a "replacement-HAWK" player. A replacement-HAWK player is one considered to be below average.

Utterly useless stat, no doubt.

The historical method of determining WARP.

[KB21]

???? Read it again please and now pay attention and try to understand what you read...And Ellis is better than Lou, there is a reason teams are willing to pay him10M$ and not to Lou...

Yeah, and that reason is that there are very few smart basketball executives in the league, and most of these guys still overpay for PPG averages rather than looking at efficiency stats. Most teams do not have a clue about how to optimize their line up. As we go forward and more Daryl Morey, Sam Hinkie, Danny Ferry, and John Hollinger types become NBA executives, the league will get smarter.

[AHF]

And as mediocre as some Hawks "fans"... Or should I say Pelicans fans. Never mind, just kidding.

Teague is better than Kemba and Lowry, for sure.

Calderon is underrated. He's easily a top 10 PG IMO, despite not playing a lick of D.

What does WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) Mean?

A metric that determines the value of a player by (theoretically) putting him on the basketball floor with four "average" players, and compares that to the team results if those four average players were on the floor with a "replacement-level" player. A replacement-level player is one considered to be below average.

Utterly useless stat, no doubt.

WARP is well respected and established in baseball. Not sure it is as mature in the NBA.

[IllestPamfilis]

I'd put Tyreke Evans and Klay Thompson ahead of Lou for sure. The PGs chart looks pretty good.

[DatWerkk]

???? Read it again please and now pay attention and try to understand what you read...And Ellis is better than Lou, there is a reason teams are willing to pay him10M$ and not to Lou...

???? Read it again please and now pay attention and try to understand what you read...And Ellis is better than Lou, there is a reason teams are willing to pay him10M$ and not to Lou...

Lol @ this dude arguing for Monta Ellis over Lou. That's a good way to make sure no one ever takes you seriously again.

[gurpilo]

Lol @ this dude arguing for Monta Ellis over Lou. That's a good way to make sure no one ever takes you seriously again.

Arguing Lou Williams is better than Monta Ellis is just been a homer.

No basketball fan from other team would agree with that statement, no GM on the NBA agree with that statement, no coach on the NBA agree with that statement. There were some teams pursuing Ellis and trying to sign him for more than 10M$, who was pursuing Lou? Even Philadelphia preferred to trade for Nick Young or Jason Richardson than to keep Lou for less price, if he is so good, why in the hell they allowed him to walk away for such a low price and sign players that you consider below him?

Go and check Monta's stats on this years, even at Milwaukee he was playing well enough and winning games, this discussion is just weird, don't argue with me, just go out to whichever NBA team fan site and check what you get from that statement.

[NBASupes]

Lou Will is a 6th man. Ellis is a starter. While Ellis has his flaws, there is a reason why teams offered big bucks for him and Lou gets the MLE. Lou ESPN WARP is based off of his 2011-12 which he played SG with Jrue Holiday who guarded SG for Lou. Lou will have to guard SG's with Jeff and he struggled greatly v. SG's with Jeff at PG.

[gurpilo]

This is ridicolous, a guy arguing Lou Williams is better than Monta is stating than no one would consider you seriously, this is the most hilarious argument I have had, just don't lose your time with me, go out and check what you get from that opinion, I don't even need that you come back and tell me.

[Plainview1981]

Arguing Lou Williams is better than Monta Ellis is just been a homer.

No basketball fan from other team would agree with that statement, no GM on the NBA agree with that statement, no coach on the NBA agree with that statement. There were some teams pursuing Ellis and trying to sign him for more than 10M$, who was pursuing Lou? Even Philadelphia preferred to trade for Nick Young or Jason Richardson than to keep Lou for less price, if he is so good, why in the hell they allowed him to walk away for such a low price and sign players that you consider below him?

Go and check Monta's stats on this years, even at Milwaukee he was playing well enough and winning games, this discussion is just weird, don't argue with me, just go out to whichever NBA team fan site and check what you get from that statement.

I'm no Lou fan, but he is better than Monta Eillis who is nothing but stats. Many of years ago he was a player with good potential. Now he is a player that struggled to find a home.