System fits for trade candidates(check out a certain HOUSTON C)

[HawkItus]

Friday, September 13, 2013
System fits for trade candidates

By Bradford Doolittle and Amin Elhassan

ESPN Insider

Could Zach Randolph be a possible successor to Tim Duncan in San Antonio?

The player movement merry-go-round is squealing to a reluctant stop for the summer, and it's almost time for players to hit training camp. In other words, our too-long wait for NBA basketball is nearly over.

However, even though the league's "cold stove" season is about done, all 30 teams are already scheming for their next wave of transactions leading up to what should be raucous player movement scene over the next year.

On Thursday, ESPN's Kevin Pelton noted a few players who could be changing uniforms sometime between now and next season. Where might some of those players land if they are moved? That's hard to say, but using a blend of advanced metrics and scouting, Bradford Doolittle and Amin Elhassan have some ideas on where they might fit best. We're not addressing how these players might get to these teams, just which teams' systems or schemes best match up with the skills and past production.

Gortat

Marcin Gortat | C

Doolittle: After a big 2011-12 season, Gortat really dropped off last season without Steve Nash around to free him up on the pick-and-roll. Gortat, like many of today's big men, is much better moving toward the hoop than as a post-up candidate. However, he defends the post well and is a top rebounder and solid help defender. He would be a perfect fit with the Clippers. On offense, Chris Paul would boost his game the same way Nash did. Gortat would help L.A. on the defensive boards, where it projects to finish 28th this season. He would be capable of a usage rate about 4-5 percentage points higher than DeAndre Jordan, has a rate 3 percentage points better on the defensive glass, protects the ball much better and allows about 25 percent fewer points per possession against post-ups.

Elhassan: I wrote about Gortat's pros and cons in my 2014 Free Agent Big Board, highlighting how he is the quintessential example of a good role player whose flaws become magnified by playing for a bad team, as he's asked to do things (and tries to do things) that his talent level is unequipped to handle. Going to Oklahoma City would benefit Gortat by allowing him to focus on his strengths -- screening, rebounding, finishing out of pick-and-rolls. Additionally, the strong leadership voices of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook and established hierarchy of the locker room would keep Gortat grounded and suppress his delusions of grandeur.

Nelson

Jameer Nelson | PG

Doolittle: Nelson played a career-high 35 minutes per game last season, a byproduct of Orlando's lack of talent. At 31 years old, he's a better fit as the third guard on a playoff team. Teams sometimes skimp on the backup point guard, but Nelson can move the needle as a high-minute reserve. Indiana makes sense for Nelson. He would fit in tandem with any of its guards -- George Hill, Paul George, C.J. Watson and Lance Stephenson. Nelson's career usage rate of 22.2 percent is higher than any of those players posted last season, so his career assist rate dwarfs that of any of the current Pacers. He would give them two much-needed traits as a third guard: pure point guard play when needed and the ability to create his own shot when that's called for.

Elhassan: Usually when speaking about veteran players who play for a bad team, they end up going to a contender. In the case of Nelson, he would be an incredible asset as a backup on a young, up-and-coming team like Toronto. Nelson's biggest strength is as a "culture setter" -- he gets teammates on the same page and is a vocal locker-room leader. He's not starting quality anymore but still has a lot to offer as a high-level backup to Kyle Lowry who can contribute on the court and mentor and lead young players. His ability to run the pick-and-roll and shoot from the perimeter would mesh well with second-year big man Jonas Valanciunas, who is starting to come into his own.

Randolph

Zach Randolph | PF

Doolittle: Randolph is in decline, and as we saw in Memphis' loss to San Antonio in the West finals, it's tough for him to put his post-scoring skills to work when he's the focal point of a capable defense. His rebounding remains a strength, and his defense is stout. He ranked in the 97th percentile against isolations last season, per Synergy Sports Technology. For that last reason, I can see him as a huge upgrade in the lineup slot currently held by Kendrick Perkins in Oklahoma City.

Randolph's ability to hold his own as a post defender would allow Serge Ibaka to focus on help defense. He would bring a much higher rate of offensive rebounding to the Thunder and would give them a post scorer OKC simply hasn't had. With Durant and Westbrook around, Randolph wouldn't have to worry about teams skewing their defensive schemes in his direction.

Elhassan: As the Spurs look forward to life after Tim Duncan, a priority has to be replacing his ability to score in the post and be a presence on the boards. While newly re-signed Tiago Splitter is a decent scorer and rebounder, he doesn't command the respect needed to prevent defenses from keying in on Tony Parker (and soon, Kawhi Leonard). Randolph's scoring and rebounding make him a good fit to continue to capitalize on San Antonio's championship window, playing alongside Duncan at first then eventually supplanting him. The Spurs offense often features a lot of weakside duck-in action, taking advantage of passive post defenders who are fixated with where the ball is, by their bigs at the front of the rim, something Randolph is one of the best in the league at doing.

Rush

Brandon Rush | SG

Doolittle: Rush was sent to a rebuilding Jazz team over the summer in what was a money move for both Utah and Golden State. Mark Jackson referred to Rush as his best perimeter defender even after he blew out his knee last fall. Indeed, during Rush's last two healthy seasons, he ranked in the top third of individual defenders by Synergy's points per possession allowed. On offense, he's a career 41 percent shooter from deep, giving a healthy Rush a much-coveted skill set that you can plug into most any team.

He has seemed athletically capable of more on offense, but after four full seasons then an injured-wrecked campaign, we have to place him in the "is what he is" category. "What he is" would be useful to Chicago. The Bulls don't have a pure shooting guard on the depth chart and are projected to rank 22nd in 3-point accuracy. Most importantly, Rush plays enough defense to persuade coach Tom Thibodeau to actually put him on the floor.

Elhassan: Rush brings a defensive tenacity to the wing position without sacrificing offense. He's a stellar 3-point shooter who has great size and length, giving him the versatility to guard multiple positions. The Rockets tried to address some of their perimeter defensive deficiencies this offseason by retaining Francisco Garcia (who did an admirable job against Durant in the postseason) and bringing in Ronnie Brewer, but Rush is a better defender and shooter than either of those options. Rush's ability to space at a high level makes him an ideal threat to keep defenses honest for Dwight Howard post-ups and act as a release valve for pick-and-roll action between James Harden and Howard.

Asik

Omer Asik | C

Doolittle: Asik is limited enough on offense that his best role probably is as a high-minute backup, even though at this point he doesn't likely agree. On a team with an already efficient attack that has holes on the defensive end, Asik would be able to hold down a starting job. I love him for the Hawks. He would fit into the increasingly international flavor of Atlanta's locker room, would allow Al Horford to play the 4 and would make Paul Millsap a Sixth Man of the Year candidate or a valuable trade option. The Hawks will be better than people think because of a potentially nice, efficient attack. However, I have them slotted with the No. 20 defense. Asik could help change that in a hurry.

Elhassan: Soon after the signing of Howard, Asik requested to be traded from Houston. It should come as no surprise. They both are centers, and Asik is coming off a career year in which, in his first opportunity for long minutes and starts, he averaged a double-double. While Houston has placated Asik for the time being by promising the opportunity to play alongside Howard, the truth is he's probably better suited taking his talents elsewhere. I agree with Brad; as an elite defensive center, Asik would fit well in Atlanta, pushing Horford back to his natural position at power forward. His rebounding prowess and high team defensive IQ would replace much of the defensive value lost when Josh Smith left this offseason.

While these scenarios might make perfect sense from a basketball perspective, just as often moves are motivated by the business side of the sport. However, if some of these players can be matched up with the right teams because of on-court reasons, the results might have a big impact on the seasons to come.

[Admin]

So who would we be trading for Asik?? I guess in this fantasy world they're giving him up for a draft pick?

[Swatguy]

So who would we be trading for Asik?? I guess in this fantasy world they're giving him up for a draft pick?

Trade both Ayón, Antić and a #1 round pick for Asik and Garcia.

[Admin]

Trade both Ayón, Antić and a #1 round pick for Asik and Garcia.

No way we need to keep all of those guys and add Asik so that we can be the Atlanta A's.

Seriously though that's a pretty good deal for Atlanta. Maybe the Rockets will feel that Ayón and Antić value are high right now and go for it, assuming they're wanting to move Asik. More than likely they hold onto him until close to the trade deadline though.

[yungsta]

Trade both Ayón, Antić and a #1 round pick for Asik and Garcia.

I doubt houston would be interested in that. They are officially in win now mode and looking for players who can push them towards a championship.

[capstone21]

I agree that Asik is a great fit here....he fits our needs....i still wonder what the trade would be if we are not,giving up Milsap. Would love to have all three with Milsap getting big minutes as a 6th man.

[Diesel]

So who would we be trading for Asik?? I guess in this fantasy world they're giving him up for a draft pick?

Milsapp makes a lot of sense. Houston with D12 and Milsapp is good. Better than them with Asik and Howard who I wouldn't put together.

[Admin]

Milsapp makes a lot of sense. Houston with D12 and Milsapp is good. Better than them with Asik and Howard who I wouldn't put together.

Nope in this fantasy land they have Milsap as a 6th man for us.

[MrMeltdown]

Millsap is the trade bait for Asik, get it done as soon as possible

[LamarHampton]

Millsap is the trade bait for Asik, get it done as soon as possible

I think that's the game plan, but here's the situation as I see it:

Asik's salary cap hit each year is $8M and some change (from memory). But I think the actual terms of his contract are something like $6M this year and $14M next year. (Right?)

So we'd get him for part of this year on the cheap, but next year would actually be fairly pricy.

And I understand that ASG is not likely to want to pay out a ton of cash on contracts, even if the hit against the salary cap is not really the problem. (We will have Teague at $8M, Horf at $12M, Kyle at ~$6M, and Lou at ~$5M already, so adding in Asik would put us at $45 - 46M for just 5 players next year.)

This year we're not really doing anything playoffs-wise, and honestly with that kind of salary hit next year AND cheap owners, I'm not sure we'll be able to make much noise next year either. (In Ferry We Trust, I know, I know ...) I do think that we would have a great starting lineup, but I don't know how deep our bench would be. But we'd be pretty likely just to lose Asik the following year (2015-16) to UFA, while not really being deep enough to make a real run against the Heat and many other teams in the next two seasons, even in the East.

I don't know the rules about getting players to sign extensions, but maybe someone can enlighten me. Could we get Asik at this point to agree to an extension as part of the trade deal? Even if possible, is that likely?

Would it be better just to keep Millsap and see what happens? Or would Millsap be good trade bait for another legit C that has a longer or more favorable contract? Thoughts? Am I missing something or over-thinking things?

[MrMeltdown]

Yeah Asik would cost $20 mill over the next 2 years, this and next year. About 15 million next year. 46 million for 5 players. That is why you need to draft well. I really don't see the problem. Give the German a year of seasoning, bring Bebe over, draft a SG or SF this summer, hope that Jenkins can atleast be a knockdown shooter and you are looking a really good team without being anywhere close to luxury tax paying team. We payed out 65 million + last year.

Teague/German

Korver/Lou/Jenkins

Draft SF

Horford

Asik/Bebe

That's 9 deep with 4 being on rookie contracts. That is about 54 million spent. You are not even at the salary cap level. Find a way to add a 3rd big to that and see what you can do. You will be paying less than we did last year. Drafting is key and I am not really a fan of what I have seen in Ferry's 1st 2 drafts

The greatest flaw to this is that he is already paying bigs like Brand and Antić whom I don't see the longterm need in but they have multi year contracts. So once you add them in we would be at 61-63 million

t

Edited September 18, 2013 by MrMeltdown

[Vol4ever]

To keep the salaries down you have to draft really well, be lucky and be in the lottery a couple of times with high picks. If you are going to win you gotta spend the cash or sell the team to somebody that will. I have no regard for anyone attached to the ownership of the franchise. Furthermore, I'm not convinced like others that Ferry knows what he is doing, but time will tell on that one.

[Guest]

Yeah Asik would cost $20 mill over the next 2 years, this and next year. About 15 million next year. 46 million for 5 players. That is why you need to draft well. I really don't see the problem. Give the German a year of seasoning, bring Bebe over, draft a SG or SF this summer, hope that Jenkins can atleast be a knockdown shooter and you are looking a really good team without being anywhere close to luxury tax paying team. We payed out 65 million + last year. Teague/GermanKorver/Lou/JenkinsDraft SFHorfordAsik/Bebe That's 9 deep with 4 being on rookie contracts. That is about 54 million spent. You are not even at the salary cap level. Find a way to add a 3rd big to that and see what you can do. You will be paying less than we did last year. Drafting is key and I am not really a fan of what I have seen in Ferry's 1st 2 drafts The greatest flaw to this is that he is already paying bigs like Brand and Antić whom I don't see the longterm need in but they have multi year contracts. So once you add them in we would be at 61-63 milliont

Elton Brand signed a 1 year deal. Antić may have signed for 2 years but only 1st year is fully guaranteed.

[frankthetank966]

Not really sold about trading a ton for Asik. I would definitely deal a first rounder as our first round picks have been lame ducks in recent years with the exception of Teague. I'm not sold on Jenkins and we put our bigman overseas. The price would need to be right. I'm sure HOU will trade Asik 2-3 weeks into the season when locker room morale is down.

[MrMeltdown]

Elton Brand signed a 1 year deal. Antić may have signed for 2 years but only 1st year is fully guaranteed.

Thanks so my concerns are not valid about Brand and Antić. So like I was thinking just add another big to that team and we would have a nice team.

[TheFuzz]

Not a fan of trading picks unless it's for a championship. Asik is nice, but not championship nice. If we can get him for Millsap or less, go for it, but I doubt we'll be able to. I'd look for a wing before a C personally, maybe we could upgrade Lou. We've got close to $16M in cap next year to play around with for a C with a couple of UFA on the market in Gortat and Pau.

[macdaddy]

Not a fan of trading picks unless it's for a championship. Asik is nice, but not championship nice. If we can get him for Millsap or less, go for it, but I doubt we'll be able to. I'd look for a wing before a C personally, maybe we could upgrade Lou. We've got close to $16M in cap next year to play around with for a C with a couple of UFA on the market in Gortat and Pau.

I agree with this. Deng may be available but i think he's too old, expensive and not really a great scorer for us. Not sure what other wings would be on the move this year though. Man am i ready for some basketball.