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Official Game Thread: Hawks - HEAT

lethalweapon3

By lethalweapon3
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lethalweapon3

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With a big holiday on the horizon, can the Atlanta Hawks stuff a lump of coal in the Miami HEAT’s stocking? We’ll see tonight, as the Hawks pay their second visit this season to South Beach (7:30 PM Eastern, SportSouth, SUN Sports).

It’s the close of a five-game homestand for the Heatles (20-6), who will get to don their gay apparel on Christmas Day in L.A., part of a four-game West Coast swing heading into the new year. Will Miami come into this game playing bells-out, or will they let the Hawks, wearing their home whites, be the Grinch?

Atlanta (15-12) is hoping to stem an eight-game losing streak head-to-head against the reigning NBA champs. The last visit to Miami was wrought with frustration, as only one Hawks starter scored in double digits (Al Horford, with just 12) in a 104-88 defeat on November 19. One of those starters was not Paul Millsap, who was sitting to heal from tendonitis in his elbow, but Gustavo Ayón. In Millsap’s absence, Mike Scott came off the bench to pop in a team-leading 15 points and 10 rebounds.


Over 31 minutes of that game, LeBron James was held, if you will, to 13 points, his lowest total in three seasons. Underscoring his ability to impact a game in myriad ways, LeBron’s team has been victorious in every game where he scored below 15 points since March 2008.

With LeBron underwhelming and Dwyane Wade held out of the game, the Hawks forced someone else to beat them, and Chris Bosh and Mario Chalmers were more than happy to oblige. Bosh shot 8-for-9 and gathered all 19 of his points in the first two-and-half quarters, then Chalmers went on a personal 9-0 scoring spree to put the game out of Atlanta’s reach. Norris Cole kept things stirring with nine assists, including a few dishes to Ray Allen (17 points) for three-pointers.

Dwyane Wade got down on creaky bended knee to get engaged to actress Gabby Union over the weekend, and was also busy procuring tailored Augusta-green jackets as gifts for his championship companions. The strategy by Head Coach Erik Spoelstra of resting Wade periodically has certainly suited his team well. During his last four games of this HEAT homestand with no back-to-backs, the reigning NBA Player of the Week has averaged 25.8 PPG while shooting 60% from the field. In their 122-103 defeat of the lowly Sacramento Kings, Wade even doubled his three-point output for the season by going 2-for-3.

Wade has effectively taken some of the offensive pressure off of LeBron. Playing through soreness in his ankle, the league MVP has reverted to more of a distributor role, averaging 8.3 APG while totaling just nine turnovers in the previous four games of this homestretch. As Ben McLemore would likely attest, though, it’s best to force James to move laterally on offense, fronting him with bodies to keep him from having full-steam-ahead drives and sprints to the hoop.

You’ve already heard that the HEAT have not been fantastic rebounders. That’s not so much an Achilles’ heel as it is Mr. Olympia’s skinny calves. Only Miami (18.2%; 6.4 ORebs per game) has a lower offensive rebounding percentage than the Hawks (21.3%; 8.9 ORebs per game, tied for 28th with the Spurs). But that’s okay, so long as you have finishers like D-Wade (54.1 FG%) and LBJ (60.1 FG%), plus accomplished perimeter shooters like Ray Allen (37.8 3FG%; Chalmers, James, and Roger Mason are all shooting threes above 40%). The ball goes in enough that there isn’t terribly much to go after by crashing the boards.

Playing at a below-average pace, the HEAT are also near the bottom in defensive rebounding as well (29.6 DRebs per game, 28th in NBA). But there’s not always a lot to rebound, as a lot of their foes’ possessions end in turnovers (17.2 opponent TOs per game; 1st in NBA. The HEAT lead the league at 9.8 steals per game, Wade’s team-leading 2.1 thefts per game representing his highest mark in five seasons. The Hawks’ 24 ball-blunders in the previous matchup tied for the most by a Miami opponent this season.

This time around, Millsap (1.7 steals per game, 17th in NBA) will be available to provide help defensively on James and Bosh. In addition to Millsap, the Hawks will have Lou Williams around to offer an offensive boost off the bench. Williams plopped in a career-high six threes for the second time in four games, and got to the free throw line eight times as the Hawks roasted Utah on an open fire Friday night, and added a season-high four steals to go with his 25 points. Ayón is questionable for tonight’s game after sitting for the past couple of weeks with a leg bruise and ankle sprain.

Jeff Teague (11.0 APG last three games) and Atlanta’s guards cannot afford to waste a lot of shot clock time hesitating and putting the ball on the floor with excessive dribbling. They have struggled in transition (according to Sheridan Hoops, 0.98 points per play is last in the league), but the Hawks guards must find ways to make Miami pay when they turn the ball over and fail to rebound. Heat opponents score 17.8 points per game off of turnovers, surprisingly the sixth most in the league.

Meanwhile, Atlanta’s bigs must gather the ball quickly in the paint and go right at the rim, not giving time for Miami defenders to react and recover. Points in the paint were to Miami’s advantage (48-38) without Millsap around in the November contest. James (79.9 FG%; minimum 100 attempts) is the only NBA player finishing within the restricted area more reliably than Atlanta’s Al Horford (75.5 FG%).

Rather than getting pounded in the paint (Sacramento racked up 60 points in the paint and an opponent-high 58.1 FG% on Friday), Miami hopes teams will jack up unnecessary three-point bombs to stay in games against them. They’re 15-0 when opponents take 22 or more three-pointers in a game.

As was the case during stretches in the first half of last month’s loss, Atlanta helps its own cause by passing smartly and finishing on the interior. Miami is 6-6 when opponents manage more than 20 assists, 14-0 when they don’t.

While Kyle Korver’s Threak is impressive, similarly eye-opening of late is his plus-minus, a league-leading +70 on the floor in the past week as the Hawks made tumbleweeds out of some Western Conference scrubs. The Hawks will need him and DeMarre Carroll to get open for mid-range jumpers and cuts to the rim along the baselines, rather than settling for corner threes all night.

Atlanta (97.2 possessions per 48 minutes; 12th in NBA but 2nd in East) will give itself a chance to pull off the upset down in AmericanAirlines Arena, if they control the pace, keep turnovers down, and exploit halfcourt mismatches with the intention of drawing double teams and getting the ball to open shooters.

Merry Christmas! Go Hawks!

~lw3

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CTann
CTann

Hey guys longtime Hawk fan, frequent reader, but rarely ever post dude right here! That game tonight was absolute BS!!!!!!!!!! The refs were beyond ridiculous. Terrible calls on Sap. Ghost calls all

benhillboy
benhillboy

I'm no offensive set analyst or nothing, but it seems evident to me we run a complete copy of the Pop System, save for about 12-15 dumps into isolation post play. We don't have the best 4 in history

JTB
JTB

I don't care what anybody says that was the hawks game and the refs stole it! DMC did not foul ray on that last shot and milsap got manhandled on that 2nd attempt before overtime! Not to mention just

Ebert Newbie

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I hope we get aggressive Teague and not "shrink in the spotlight" Teague.

I hope we get "hard hat hustle Al and not "jab jab who will not shoot" Al.

I need an early Christmas present...Go Hawks!!

Edited by JayBirdHawk
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DJlaysitup Newbie

DJlaysitup

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Great work as usual lw3 !!

Big sports night for Atlanta...Hawks at the Defending Champions' place and Falcons going against the team that knocked us out of the Superbowl last year.

Would be a great "double-win" for Atlanta (even though the Falcons have under-achieved and I worry about this game)...personally I'll take a Hawks win and the Falcons not getting embarrassed on MNF.

GO HAWKS !!!

P.S. - Merry Christmas to all Posted Image

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Spoelstra on our offense:

"They are scoring the ball very easily right now. They move the ball great. We don’t think it’s a coincidence that the top three (teams) in assists right now are them, San Antonio, us. It changes depending on the day. I think Mike (Budenholzer) has done an outstanding job implementing that system. The ball moves. They have attackers. They have cutters. They have a great 3-point shooters. Now that Lou Williams is back you have another guy who can put the ball on the floor. They have a lot of different components that absolutely fit the system. While the average fan might overlook that, we don’t. We see the many compromising situations they can put you in.”

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