Hawks face tough stretch, rebounding concerns post-break

[RandomFan]

http://www.foxsports.com/south/story/atlanta-hawks-face-tough-stretch-rebounding-concerns-after-all-star-break-021915

 

ATLANTA -- There's no easing their way back from the All-Star break for the Hawks.

Fresh off a weekend in New York that seemed more like a takeover -- Atlanta had eight representatives take part in five different events -- the Eastern Conference leaders face a stretch that includes six of seven games against teams in playoff position.

 

"I think it's great for us. I think any time we're challenged or tested, I think our group looks forward to that," said Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer after Thursday's practice.

 

It starts Friday night at Philips Arena against the Raptors, who sit second in the East and are winners of nine of their last 11.

 

They're also the only team to beat the Hawks twice this season, as the Raptors won the season opener 109-102 in Toronto, then beat Atlanta again 126-115 on Nov. 26 in Philips Arena.

 

After the Raptors, Atlanta heads to Milwaukee, (sixth in East) then hosts Dallas (fifth in West), and after a respite vs. the 17-win Magic, heads to Miami (eighth in East) before back-to-back home games vs. the Rockets (fourth in West) and Cavaliers (fifth in East) to open March. The Heat retooled, adding Goran Dragic before Thursday's trade deadline and the Bucks landed Michael Carter-Willliams, Miles Plumlee and Tyler Ennis in a three-team deal that cost them Brandon Knight.

 

"We want to get another 19-game win streak going," said All-Star forward Paul Millsap. "We know the level of focus that takes. It's going to be tough but we feel like we're capable of doing that."

 

While the Hawks have already beaten each of those teams, including going 2-0 against the Heat and 2-1 against Cleveland, that group is responsible for five of Atlanta's 11 losses.

 

Along with the two defeats as the hands of the Raptors, the Hawks fell to the Cavaliers 127-94 on Nov. 15, the Magic 100-99 Dec. 13 and the Bucks 90-85 on Dec. 27 in the game that preceded their 19-game winning streak.

 

But three of those losses came on the road and the Hawks are winners of their last 12 home games

Atlanta boasts the NBA's best record on their floor at 25-3, though this upcoming run does include a team that is tied for the most road victories with the Mavericks, who have 19.

 

"That's what we signed up for," said shooting guard Kent Bazemore said. "Thankfully, we did our work early and created a little space for ourselves. That's no excuse to slack off any."

 

With 28 games to go, losing the East's top seed would require a collapse.

 

Conceivably, Atlanta could play .500 the rest of the way and even if the Raptors won at their current pace (they'd go 19-9), the Hawks would still claim the home-court advantage throughout the playoffs by a game.

 

Not that the Hawks are thinking mediocrity after having already eclipsed last season's 38-win total.

The pursuit of the franchise's first division title since 1994 and its only 60-win season is about regaining consistency and getting off to a fast start after the layoff.

 

"It has to be this game, it can't be the next two game or three games" Millsap said. "We have to find our rhythm early. We've got to get our chemistry going back early."

 

After the franchise-record streak, they went 3-3, culminating in an 89-88 loss at Boston, a team that has one of the league's worst defenses. Only five clubs have given up more points a game than the Celtics' 102.3.

 

"We know what we did wrong," said Millsap. "Our mental focus just wasn't there. Now that the All-Star break is over with we've got newfound life."

 

But where the Hawks truly need a boost is on the boards, where Millsap leads the way with 7.8 per game, with Al Horford just behind him at 7.4. Those figures rank 28th and 32nd in the league, respectively.

 

They were outgained 305-233 in that stretch, besting only the Wizards 46-41, and allowed 56 to Boston, 55 by the Grizzlies, 52 via the Pelicans, 51 by the Warriors and 50 to the Timberwolves.

 

"That explains rebounding drills today," Bazemore said. "That's definitely a priority of ours to hit the glass a little harder."

 

Averaging 40.9 rebounds a game (27th), the Hawks have a minus-2.7 differential. They didn't address the area before the trade deadline, but it hasn't hurt them that much as they've have been able to overcome their rebounding deficiency by shooting an NBA-best 38.9 percent on 3-pointers and 47.1 overall (third).

 

"That's one area that we need work on," said Millsap, Atlanta's top rebounder at 7.9 per game. "We don't want to be last in rebounding. It's kind of tough to be on top in everything. You're going to have some weaknesses and you have some strengths. We can't let our weaknesses hurt us though."

 

But Budenholzer stresses he also don't want to overemphasize the need to get better to the point where it's taking away from what's been the recipe for the Hawks' success: ball movement, shooting and defense.

 

"We can find ways to compete and win and be successful without making this rebounding thing into some monster," he said.

[JTB]

Coach Bud speaks:

"We can find ways to compete and win and be successful without making this rebounding thing into some monster," he said.

And there ya go! This team isn't great at rebounding but they have done their part in grabbing KEY boards in several games to get the win. Bud did the right thing....address the issue but don't go overboard to a point they only start to focus on grabbing rebounds.

Rebounds are important but so is effecient offense, team defense, and ball movement...lol sap said you can't be top in everything! Ya damn right you can't....pick ya poison

[DrReality]

Maintaining the intensity is their real challenge and that's the test of a championship team.

[Wretch]

I'll say it again about the "bad rebounding"...not worried about it.  Every team has some kind of flaw.  The key is to not compound the issue with poor play in other areas.  As a poor rebounding team, there are two things you MUST do: execute your game and defend (the latter being the catalyst to our success this season).

 

I'm not so much worried about our defense because these guys are incredibly disciplined there.  However...I do worry about the offensive execution.  Not so much missed shots, but the offense breaking down due to bad habits or just good opposing D.  They don't have to play like superstars, but they will need some damn superstar level execution...flawless execution if they expect to make the finals.

[capstone21]

I have noticed that Al has really picked up his rebounding as of late ... he has been averaging 11.3 rpg for Feb ... maybe a sign of him feeling more himself ...

[DatWerkk]

I'm working on a piece about the importance of rebounding to winning teams but it'll probably be another couple of days or so before it's ready. It started off being Hawks-focused but I realized half way into my research that the data shows some very obvious trends that are relevant regardless of what team you root for.

 

Stay tuned! :laugh:

[AHF]

Sounds like Bud is taking the right approach on this - recognizing that the rebounding is very important but not so important as to mess with the team's fundamental approach.  Minimize your weakness and continue to work to maximize your strengths.

[RandomFan]

I'm working on a piece about the importance of rebounding to winning teams but it'll probably be another couple of days or so before it's ready. It started off being Hawks-focused but I realized half way into my research that the data shows some very obvious trends that are relevant regardless of what team you root for.

 

Stay tuned!

 

Do you mean the lack of importance of rebounding to winning teams? Since that is what the data shows.

 

Looking forward to it.

Edited February 20, 2015 by RandomFan

[Plainview1981]

Giving up an offensive rebound is the same as turning the ball over. If rebounding does not matter, then neither does turnovers.

 

Fact is... Almost every team that has won the title in the last 20-30 years has had a big presence in the paint that rebounds and block shots. That's a fact that can't be changed no matter how much one wants to spin it.

Edited February 20, 2015 by Hotlanta1981

[Plainview1981]

This team averaged 101 PPG on 46% shooting last year... They scored 92 PPG on 38% shooting in the playoffs. 

 

Indy took Bud's offense away in the playoffs last year and it will probably happen again this year (to a lesser degree) and so every little play will matter.

Edited February 20, 2015 by Hotlanta1981

[macdaddy]

													Offense Four Factors				Defense Four Factors
Rk	Team	G	W	L	W/L%	PW	PL	ORtg	DRtg	Pace	FTr	3PAr	eFG%	TOV%	ORB%	FT/FGA	eFG%	TOV%	DRB% ▾	FT/FGA
1	Charlotte Hornets	4	0	4	.000	0.8	3.2	101.5	112.3	90.6	.312	.282	.500	.149	.208	.223	.539	.107	.857	.260
2	Washington Wizards	11	6	5	.545	5.9	5.1	102.0	100.9	87.8	.285	.211	.468	.125	.279	.198	.471	.127	.797	.227
3	San Antonio Spurs	23	16	7	.696	18.0	5.0	114.2	104.2	92.7	.291	.267	.546	.121	.236	.223	.492	.134	.772	.197
4	Toronto Raptors	7	3	4	.429	3.1	3.9	108.2	110.0	88.8	.391	.283	.486	.150	.268	.326	.506	.118	.770	.291
5	Brooklyn Nets	12	5	7	.417	5.4	6.6	110.5	112.0	86.4	.330	.302	.514	.125	.251	.243	.516	.133	.770	.306
6	Indiana Pacers	19	10	9	.526	8.8	10.2	103.7	104.8	88.3	.314	.258	.500	.138	.211	.228	.493	.136	.770	.218
7	Dallas Mavericks	7	3	4	.429	3.0	4.0	110.0	112.1	92.0	.217	.259	.500	.107	.264	.166	.542	.134	.766	.245
8	Atlanta Hawks	7	3	4	.429	3.2	3.8	101.9	103.0	90.7	.316	.417	.456	.131	.204	.261	.500	.146	.762	.220
9	Miami Heat	20	13	7	.650	11.3	8.7	112.8	110.8	86.2	.305	.326	.555	.129	.171	.238	.539	.142	.753	.220
	League Average	11.1	5.6	5.6	.500	5.5	5.6	108.7	108.7	90.6	.308	.279	.505	.128	.249	.235	.505	.128	.751	.235
10	Oklahoma City Thunder	19	10	9	.526	8.8	10.2	108.1	109.2	92.3	.327	.287	.496	.140	.271	.268	.485	.105	.742	.212
11	Houston Rockets	6	2	4	.333	3.1	2.9	114.8	114.4	92.7	.325	.280	.490	.117	.353	.242	.507	.106	.728	.258
12	Chicago Bulls	5	1	4	.200	1.7	3.3	103.0	108.3	85.6	.290	.244	.463	.130	.279	.219	.479	.102	.722	.225
13	Golden State Warriors	7	3	4	.429	2.5	4.5	110.2	114.8	96.6	.335	.316	.518	.153	.308	.244	.529	.129	.721	.290
14	Portland Trail Blazers	11	5	6	.455	3.4	7.6	107.2	113.6	94.6	.281	.260	.482	.123	.261	.224	.508	.104	.706	.208
15	Los Angeles Clippers	13	6	7	.462	7.3	5.7	113.3	111.3	96.0	.334	.302	.515	.114	.262	.244	.521	.149	.704	.272
16	Memphis Grizzlies	7	3	4	.429	2.2	4.8	102.8	108.5	88.8	.293	.173	.442	.101	.270	.214	.483	.141	.690	.263

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/20/2015.

[macdaddy]

But we don't suck at rebounding.   Look at the playoffs defensive rebounding rate above for the playoffs last year.  We're right there with Indy, SAS, Miami and that's without Al.   We are much improved offensively and defensively this year.   

[RandomFan]

Here is another good little article with some numbers that will make Hotlanta's head continue to explode. 

 

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2015/2/20/8070939/nba-stats-atlanta-hawks-success

 

How did this team tear up the first half of the season?  It's pretty simple, and during this slow week before starting back tonight, the Stat Geek Five will give you the overview of just how.  In Atlanta, first and foremost, there is one philosophy:

 

1. Defend!

"Defense wins champsionships."  In the NBA and with the Hawks, it all starts with great D.  Sadly, I hear a lot of detracting around the frontcourt, but that is one of Atlanta's strengths.  Don't bother with your "Al Horford isn't a center" comments.  He is, and he's one of the best in the league.  Don't bother with your "The Hawks could never have a defensive wall like Memphis does inside."  Not true!  In defensive win shares, the Hawks have the player at #2 (Millsap) and #19 (Horford), one above the Grizzlies' pair at #3 (Gasol) and #20 (Randolph).  Which brings me to another criticism of the Hawks, which is actually a strength:

 

2. A lack of rebounding

That's right: a lack of rebounding is Atlanta's strength.  That stat is by design in Bud's system.  The Hawks are more concerned with getting back to prevent easy transition buckets than grabbing offensive rebounds, and it has worked.  Only Milwaukee allows fewer transition points per game.  Don't worry about the rebounding stat.  It is overrated in today's NBA game.  In the past three seasons, the team with the worst rebounding per game won their conference, won the championship, and went to the conference finals, respectively (thanks to my buddy Nate for pointing that one out).  Even if the Hawks were to finish last, they'd be in some pretty good company.  They aren't last, though - Atlanta occasionally grabs a rebound, and when they do, it starts up the offense, which for the Hawks means:

 

3. Crazy good passing

It is well documented by the Stat Geek Five as well as plenty of others:  the Hawks can move the ball.  Only the Warriors have better assist per 48 minutes numbers and Jeff Teague is fifth in points created by an assist per 48 minutes (minimum 20 games).   All that passing leads to great opportunities for the Atlanta shooters ...

 

4. And holy crap are they good at shooting off of those passes!

The Hawks dominate the league in catch-and-shoot scoring.  Pick a category off of catch-and-shoot instances:  points per game, field goal percentage, three point percentage, effective field goal percentage, etc - the Hawks lead them all, and by a reasonably wide margin.  Horford and Korver are in the top 20 in field goal percentage.  Korver and Carroll are in the top 20 true shooting percentage.  Korver, Carroll, and Horford are in the top 20 in effective field goal percentage.  How do they get such great looks?

 

5. Running!  Lots of running!

Per the NBA's SportVU cameras, the Hawks are seventh in total miles run throughout the season.  Korver is seventh in that category for one player at 126.9 miles, and every player above him averages more minutes than he does.  The whole team averages between 3.1 and 3.6 miles per 48 minutes.

Perhaps most importantly to all of this, I'd like to point out that while I mentioned all five starters in the top 20 players of some category, none of the Hawks are in the top 20 in scoring.  Not one.  The constant ball movement rewards all players in the system and it was great to see four of the five starters selected to the All-star game as well as all five starters recognized as co-players of the month.  Both of those awards really acknowledged the team play behind the Hawks' fantastic season.

[AUhawksfan]

I feel like right before the break teams started keying in on the Hawks lack of rebounding and it came away with a few losses for the Hawks.

 

I'll be very interested to see how we come back from the break with teams continuing to try and exploit that.  It would have been the difference between a Win and a Loss in games like at Boston where we could not hit a single shot.

 

 

Indy took Bud's offense away in the playoffs last year and it will probably happen again this year (to a lesser degree) and so every little play will matter.

 

I wouldn't go so far as to say they took our offense away.  They played decent D but  Pero couldn't hit a shot to save his life, many of them open.  We had our chances.  I think the bigger question though is what are we going to do when we aren't clicking on offense?  We'll need to run our offense with extreme precision to void off all the rebounding battles we will lose.

[Plainview1981]

I feel like right before the break teams started keying in on the Hawks lack of rebounding and it came away with a few losses for the Hawks.

 

I'll be very interested to see how we come back from the break with teams continuing to try and exploit that.  It would have been the difference between a Win and a Loss in games like at Boston where we could not hit a single shot.

 

 

 

I wouldn't go so far as to say they took our offense away.  They played decent D but  Pero couldn't hit a shot to save his life, many of them open.  We had our chances.  I think the bigger question though is what are we going to do when we aren't clicking on offense?  We'll need to run our offense with extreme precision to void off all the rebounding battles we will lose.

 

Both Teague and Millsap shot below 40%. That's the problem... When the other team takes away the Hawks ball movement and they force them to become one on one players the results are far less impressive. And it's partly because the hawks have good players, but not great ones. At the end of the day, Paul George made the plays to push Indy past Atlanta. 

Edited February 20, 2015 by Hotlanta1981

[DatWerkk]

Do you mean the lack of importance of rebounding to winning teams? Since that is what the data shows.

 

Shhhhh!!

[RandomFan]

I feel like right before the break teams started keying in on the Hawks lack of rebounding and it came away with a few losses for the Hawks.

 

I'll be very interested to see how we come back from the break with teams continuing to try and exploit that.  It would have been the difference between a Win and a Loss in games like at Boston where we could not hit a single shot.

 

 

 

I wouldn't go so far as to say they took our offense away.  They played decent D but  Pero couldn't hit a shot to save his life, many of them open.  We had our chances.  I think the bigger question though is what are we going to do when we aren't clicking on offense?  We'll need to run our offense with extreme precision to void off all the rebounding battles we will lose.

 

"I think the bigger question though is what are we going to do when we aren't clicking on offense?  We'll need to run our offense with extreme precision to void off all the rebounding battles we will lose."   --- No offense, but isn't that kind of as obvious as saying something like 'we need to score more points than the other team in order to win the game?' If the offense isn't clicking, it's hard for any team to win any time.

 

We must look at 3 different levels of offensive performance:

1) Way above average

2)Average

3)Way below average

 

When you get #1, that's when we get the 20+ point blowouts.

 

#2 is what we usually get, which usually means we win the game when combined with our outstanding defense. This is also how you lose games when you miss a few crucial buckets down the stretch, or you run into a team that is playing way above average on offense. (This is what happened in the Memphis loss, we simply missed a few crucial buckets down the stretch, and they didn't).

 

#3 is what leads to losses, no matter how well you play or rebound. Reducing the amount of times #3 happens is what makes good teams good. But it IS going to happen from time to time. (This is what happened in our loss to New Orleans to break our streak).

 

The Boston loss wasn't any of the above. It was all about us just losing focus and not trying hard: as admitted by both Millsap and DMC.

[Plainview1981]

Here is another good little article with some numbers that will make Hotlanta's head continue to explode. 

 

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2015/2/20/8070939/nba-stats-atlanta-hawks-success

 

How did this team tear up the first half of the season?  It's pretty simple, and during this slow week before starting back tonight, the Stat Geek Five will give you the overview of just how.  In Atlanta, first and foremost, there is one philosophy:

 

1. Defend!

"Defense wins champsionships."  In the NBA and with the Hawks, it all starts with great D.  Sadly, I hear a lot of detracting around the frontcourt, but that is one of Atlanta's strengths.  Don't bother with your "Al Horford isn't a center" comments.  He is, and he's one of the best in the league.  Don't bother with your "The Hawks could never have a defensive wall like Memphis does inside."  Not true!  In defensive win shares, the Hawks have the player at #2 (Millsap) and #19 (Horford), one above the Grizzlies' pair at #3 (Gasol) and #20 (Randolph).  Which brings me to another criticism of the Hawks, which is actually a strength:

 

2. A lack of rebounding

That's right: a lack of rebounding is Atlanta's strength.  That stat is by design in Bud's system.  The Hawks are more concerned with getting back to prevent easy transition buckets than grabbing offensive rebounds, and it has worked.  Only Milwaukee allows fewer transition points per game.  Don't worry about the rebounding stat.  It is overrated in today's NBA game.  In the past three seasons, the team with the worst rebounding per game won their conference, won the championship, and went to the conference finals, respectively (thanks to my buddy Nate for pointing that one out).  Even if the Hawks were to finish last, they'd be in some pretty good company.  They aren't last, though - Atlanta occasionally grabs a rebound, and when they do, it starts up the offense, which for the Hawks means:

 

3. Crazy good passing

It is well documented by the Stat Geek Five as well as plenty of others:  the Hawks can move the ball.  Only the Warriors have better assist per 48 minutes numbers and Jeff Teague is fifth in points created by an assist per 48 minutes (minimum 20 games).   All that passing leads to great opportunities for the Atlanta shooters ...

 

4. And holy crap are they good at shooting off of those passes!

The Hawks dominate the league in catch-and-shoot scoring.  Pick a category off of catch-and-shoot instances:  points per game, field goal percentage, three point percentage, effective field goal percentage, etc - the Hawks lead them all, and by a reasonably wide margin.  Horford and Korver are in the top 20 in field goal percentage.  Korver and Carroll are in the top 20 true shooting percentage.  Korver, Carroll, and Horford are in the top 20 in effective field goal percentage.  How do they get such great looks?

 

5. Running!  Lots of running!

Per the NBA's SportVU cameras, the Hawks are seventh in total miles run throughout the season.  Korver is seventh in that category for one player at 126.9 miles, and every player above him averages more minutes than he does.  The whole team averages between 3.1 and 3.6 miles per 48 minutes.

Perhaps most importantly to all of this, I'd like to point out that while I mentioned all five starters in the top 20 players of some category, none of the Hawks are in the top 20 in scoring.  Not one.  The constant ball movement rewards all players in the system and it was great to see four of the five starters selected to the All-star game as well as all five starters recognized as co-players of the month.  Both of those awards really acknowledged the team play behind the Hawks' fantastic season.

 

They don't give you trophies for playing well the first half of the season.

 

You can run to biased sites like peachtreehoops to find your Confirmation bias conclusions. That's fine.

 

The Heat dominated the east for the last 4 years, but they had elite players. The best player in the game. 

 

Teams have done a lot better job of disrupting the Hawks "crazy good ball movement" as of late. That's because teams have caught on to some degree.  

 

Now, if we wanted to look at a team that goes against my beliefs... Then you would have to look at the Jason Kidd led New Jersey Nets. That team was a better rebounding team than the Hawks though. But they were somewhat like the Hawks.

Edited February 20, 2015 by Hotlanta1981

[RandomFan]

They don't give you trophies for playing well the first half of the season.

 

You can run to biased sites like peachtreehoops to find your Confirmation bias conclusions. That's fine.

 

That you accuse others of confirmation bias is beyond the pale.

Edited February 20, 2015 by RandomFan

[AUhawksfan]

"I think the bigger question though is what are we going to do when we aren't clicking on offense?  We'll need to run our offense with extreme precision to void off all the rebounding battles we will lose."   --- No offense, but isn't that kind of as obvious as saying something like 'we need to score more points than the other team in order to win the game?' If the offense isn't clicking, it's hard for any team to win any time.

 

It's not that obvious.  Scoring more points than your opponents wins you games but that factors in so much more, as a basketball fan you should know that (i.e. rebounding, defense, turnovers, etc.).  For example Memphis can actually win games even when their offense isn't clicking.

 

My point is that I'd love to see the Hawks prove that they can consistently get outrebounded but still manage to stick to their principles and win games.  That would be ideal.

 

My fear though (and I hope I'm proven wrong) is that we may have a hard time if we face a good rebounding team with some size in the playoffs.  So yes we have to play ok enough on offense every night to win during the regular season, but I feel we may need to play the "way above average" offense every game in the playoffs to beat that sort of team in a 7 game series.