ESPN's Arnovitz > Hawks need to shed Scott and Mack to keep Sap and DMC

sturt · June 15, 2015

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13067059/next-atlanta-hawks

2. Will the Hawks sign free agents Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll and bring the band back together for 2015-16?
The Hawks' success this season has made this a slightly more difficult question to answer than it was six months ago because Millsap and Carroll are now at their peak values.

After all the accounting for cap holds and their first-round pick (No. 15 overall) in this June's draft, the Hawks figure to have approximately $23 million under the salary cap for those signings. Will that get it done? The sense both inside the Hawks and around the league is "not anymore."

Millsap, who is eligible for a max contract worth more than $18 million a year, is the rare player who spans the spectrum of opinion on what a power forward should look like in the NBA. The old school loves his physicality and work ethic, while the analytics-oriented appreciate his newfound range, versatility and the fact his teams are decisively better when he's out there. And everyone can get behind his durability and professionalism.

With the large amount of cap space available around the league -- combined with the collective belief that any contract signed this summer will look like a discount when the cap increases by as much as 30 percent in the summer of 2016 -- a "2015 max" salary doesn't seem at all outlandish for Millsap. Plus, many around the league feel someone will come calling after the LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love dominoes fall. Will it be Atlanta?

There isn't a free agent who played himself into a bigger pay raise than Carroll. Less than two years ago, he was a defensive specialist who could plug a hole at small forward on the cheap. On July 1, he'll be a bona fide starting small forward who plays lockdown perimeter defense, hits the 3 at a 40 percent clip, works tirelessly off the ball, creates for himself and makes plays for others.

Following Carroll's estimated annual salary on his next contract has been like tracking an internet stock you didn't buy soon enough. Since opening night, he's risen from a candidate for a contract in the neighborhood of the midlevel exception (which would still represent more than double his current paycheck), to someone who has a reasonable claim on an eight-figure salary. Sources say the Hawks are bracing themselves for an asking price of 4 years and $50 million -- and given the postseason Carroll put together and the interest around the league, possibly even more. If the price tag is much higher than that, there's good reason to believe the flexibility-minded Hawks could bow out, though their strong preference is to retain Carroll, who has been an essential cog in their two-way success.

All this is to say that in order to accommodate both Millsap and Carroll, the Hawks will have to move a couple of smaller contracts -- say, Mike Scott and Shelvin Mack. This shouldn't be too difficult, but the more important question for the Hawks is how proactive will they be with regard to Millsap and Carroll?

This Hawks administration has been reluctant to extend free agents lengthier deals, and you could see a scenario where they offer Millsap and/or Carroll a higher annual salary for a shorter term. But for Millsap (30 years old) and Carroll (turns 29 in July), this is likely the biggest payday of their careers, and it's hard to imagine either not evaluating offers based on their total guaranteed value. And if that's the case, do the Hawks watch the market for their two prized free agents, and then make their move, much the way they did with Jeff Teague two summers ago?

The likely strategy probably lies somewhere in between. The Hawks have built a fraternal culture in Atlanta. "We are a family," Millsap said following the Game 4 loss in Cleveland. "This team is close. It will play a lot into the decision." The word from Atlanta is that its strong preference is to retain its two gritty, hard-working starting forwards, so long as the price isn't unreasonable.

But the Hawks also have a deliberate, careful front office that places a premium on financial flexibility. If the front office peers into the future and sees too much money committed to too many players in their 30s -- whose best seasons are behind them -- that could inspire the Hawks brass to look at other options. This is not a potential reality that scares or paralyzes the Hawks in any way. They'll have the resources to get what they need this summer. They'd love for that to be Millsap and Carroll, but they're confident they could be successful if it's not........

Dakin · June 15, 2015

Uh, ok. Didn't know these dudes' contracts were so prohibitive. I guess we should've traded Mack, he seems to have some value as a backup PG.

Dakin · June 15, 2015

Or we should trade him. I doubt anyone wants Scott right now.

Edited June 15, 2015 by Dakin

June 15, 2015

I doubt Arnovitz is right.

atlhawks1 · June 15, 2015

Lol.........he mentioned the disaster that is Pero Antić..........

June 15, 2015

He states 'This Hawks administration has been RELUCTANT to extend free agents lengthier deals' - helloooo - Millsap was initially offered a 4 year deal which he declined. Carroll was a journey man at the time, why give him a long term deal then. Kyle signed for 4 years. Thabo for 3 years....article is.....smh.

Edited June 15, 2015 by JayBirdHawk

Randy · June 15, 2015

We get new owners in a few weeks. Anything that he thinks he knows about the Hawks willingness to spend money, keep or let players go may prove completely wrong.

June 15, 2015

He states 'This Hawks administration has been RELUCTANT to extend free agents lengthier deals' - helloooo - Millsap was initially offered a 4 year deal which he declined. Carroll was a journey man at the time, why give him a long term deal then. Kyle signed for 4 years. Thabo for 3 years....article is.....smh.

Yeah, which is strange because he is usually a good writer. He isn't thinking things through here and a lot of this reads like garbage if you pay close attention to the Hawks. This seems close to the Lowe school of journalism, feign the understanding to appear like this is some sort of a highbrow article. It kind of reminds me of The Finer Things Club:

Of which he attempted to try and feign some more...

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errr...not really. In his defense he corrected himself by pointing out that someone else corrected him:

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Bad day at the office?

sturt · June 15, 2015

We get new owners in a few weeks. Anything that he thinks he knows about the Hawks willingness to spend money, keep or let players go may prove completely wrong.

This might apply to many of us as well. *raises hand*

June 15, 2015

Agree with @hawksfanatic here. These eggsperts haven't paid enough attention to us over the years to really speak to our situation intelligently.

Expect to see a bunch of near-right, mostly wrong "analysis" this offseason to see what slips by the folks (like myself, hehe) who really know what's going on.

Diesel · June 16, 2015

I don't agree with the original author. I think he's mistaken. However, moving Scott and Mack would free up about 6 Million.

However, my thing is

4 year 42 for DMC - NonBird.

4 year Max Early Bird for Sap.

In between, there's still enough room to make one more significant signing without moving Scott or Mack.

HawkItus · June 16, 2015

Damn ya'll are some bitchy ass fans. Kevin has been covering us all season. People scream we get no coverage on the "majors" then ya'll pick knits about said wanted coverage. I'm sorry if a national writer doesn't have the knowledge of a dyed in the wool Hawks fan. Maybe just maybe if he keeps getting hits he can justify writing about us and become our version of Ira Windbag. Enjoyed the article for what it is worth and like seeing us at least discussed.

Edited June 16, 2015 by HawkItus

macdaddy · June 16, 2015

Damn ya'll are some bitchy ass fans. Kevin has been covering us all season. People scream we get no coverage on the "majors" then ya'll pick knits about said wanted coverage. I'm sorry if a national writer doesn't have the knowledge of a dyed in the wool Hawks fan. Maybe just maybe if he keeps getting hits he can justify writing about us and become our version of Ira Windbag. Enjoyed the article for what it is worth and like seeing us at least discussed.

Plus I think he's right. I think Mack and probably Scott will get traded so we can keep our guys and hopefully find another solid rotation player. I like Scott but I've tired of Mack, especially at the 2 where he is ill suited to play. It bugged me that when he was on the court with Teague he still tried to control the ball.

sturt · June 16, 2015

I don't agree with the original author. I think he's mistaken. However, moving Scott and Mack would free up about 6 Million.

However, my thing is

4 year 42 for DMC - NonBird.

4 year Max Early Bird for Sap.

In between, there's still enough room to make one more significant signing without moving Scott or Mack.

That's a nice thought, and not too far off what I think most would have projected... it's certainly in the ballpark of what the Squawk poll said would be reasonable.

But Arnovitz appears to be persuaded that Sap is going to get offers too far above the ~$16.5 early bird max for him, at 30 years old, to turn down... and that with DMC anticipated to get $12m or so, we'd have to clear about $6m somehow to bring them both back.

One thing everyone can agree on... at least, I think "everyone"... our future hinges on what Sap decides he wants to do.

Nicholasp27 · June 16, 2015

I'm fine with losing Scott, Antić, Mack to keep DMC and sap

benhillboy · June 17, 2015

Yeah, which is strange because he is usually a good writer. He isn't thinking things through here and a lot of this reads like garbage if you pay close attention to the Hawks. This seems close to the Lowe school of journalism, feign the understanding to appear like this is some sort of a highbrow article. It kind of reminds me of The Finer Things Club:
Of which he attempted to try and feign some more...

errr...not really. In his defense he corrected himself by pointing out that someone else corrected him:

Bad day at the office?

Any mention of The Office merits a 5 Star post. An image will spot you an additional point for your next post. One of the funnier episodes post-Michael. Edited June 17, 2015 by benhillboy

Diesel · June 17, 2015

That's a nice thought, and not too far off what I think most would have projected... it's certainly in the ballpark of what the Squawk poll said would be reasonable.

But Arnovitz appears to be persuaded that Sap is going to get offers too far above the ~$16.5 early bird max for him, at 30 years old, to turn down... and that with DMC anticipated to get $12m or so, we'd have to clear about $6m somehow to bring them both back.

One thing everyone can agree on... at least, I think "everyone"... our future hinges on what Sap decides he wants to do.

Does Sap get a big raise if he takes something other than our EB max?

I don't think so.

To go with somebody else means that he takes 4.5% raises instead of 7.5% raises.

That 1.23 Million raise per year makes a world of difference. A team offering 18 million to start won't give more money on the contract than us.

June 18, 2015

Items 3, 4 and 5 of the original article were also interesting:

3. Who is the Hawks' point guard of the future?

The Hawks have two very good, imperfect options. The incumbent is Teague, who the Hawks drafted six summers ago during the Joe Johnson-Josh Smith-Al Horford era. His understudy,Dennis Schröder, is a 21-year-old firefly who buzzes around the floor with reckless abandon.

Teague had a breakout season and was named to his first All-Star Game in February. By his own admission, he didn't immediately take to the motion offense and high-activity defense when they were imported with Budenholzer from San Antonio, because he never instinctively read the court to the degree the systems demand. Teague has made strides, but there's still a persistent question in Atlanta as to whether he has the confidence or obsessive competitiveness to be the point guard who can grow old and prosper with the system in Atlanta.

In no way does Schröder lack for confidence and obsessive competitiveness, and the Hawks' brain trust loves him for it, even as they acknowledge he has some growing up to do. After a forgettable rookie year, Schröder emerged this season as the Hawks' backup point guard. Though he was more explosive than reliable, there were nothing but positive indicators in his stat line -- from turnovers to accuracy from deep.

At some point, Schröder will assume the starting spot in Atlanta, but that's unlikely to be next season for one primary reason: Teague's contract is simply too favorable to send away, barring extraordinary circumstance. Whether or not the Hawks feel like Teague will ever have the it to bring a championship to Atlanta, right now he's a very competent point guard making $8 million for the next two seasons.

4. What sort of role will Grant Hill take on when the transfer of team ownership takes hold? Does he want to work in the Hawks' front office?

When it was announced that the group led by Tony Ressler won the bidding for the Hawks, Hill stayed under the radar as a TV color analyst, abiding by the league's request that he and other pending owners go about their business while the world waited for the sale to be executed.

There's a natural assumption that Hill, given his reputation and acumen, would plant himself upstairs in the basketball operations lair at Philips Arena. But our best intelligence suggests Hill isn't interested in being a general manager. He's interested in being an owner.

Hill's passions are more entrepreneurial than managerial. Over the past two decades, he has compounded his basketball earnings into a fortune through a number of successful ventures from private equity to residential real estate. If ever there was someone suited to serve as a hub for a new ownership group, it's Hill, who has credibility with high rollers, basketball people, players, sponsors, broadcast entities, the Hawks' branding brigade and Atlanta's in-town constituencies.

Why would someone who can do all that want to get on a red-eye flight to Riga to scout a potential late first-rounder?

5. What else do the Hawks need?

Back in the winter, when Schröder was sprouting wings, Scott and Pero Anticwere hitting shots, and Sefolosha was healthy, the Hawks looked like a team with some solid depth. But by the time the postseason rolled around, Sefolosha was out of action, while Scott and Antić were a couple of stretch bigs who played neither big nor stretchy.

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Summer Scoop: Who will Hawks keep?

2d - NBA PAUL MILLSAP +6 more

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Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN Staff Writer

Five burning questions and answers ‎about the immediate future of the Atlanta Hawks in the wake of the sweep they suffered in the Eastern Conference finals at the hands of LeBron James and theCleveland Cavaliers:

1. How much will the Hawks' lackluster performance against Cleveland change the way the front office approaches the offseason?

Very little.

As badly as things went for Atlanta in its four-game drubbing at the hands of James, the Hawks' season was an undeniable success the instant the facilities staff hung the first Eastern Conference finals banner at Philips Arena. Lest we forget, the last time the Hawks played in the NBA's final four, coach Mike Budenholzer was eight months old.

This season, few had #eventheHawks to win much more than 41 games (Vegas had the over-under at 40.5) and serve as first-round kindling in the East playoff bracket. Yet despite not having a single player named to an All-NBA team, enduring the turmoil of last September surrounding Bruce Levenson and Danny Ferry, and losing Thabo Sefolosha in the events of April 8 in New York, the Hawks secured the No. 1 seed in late March.

The Hawks achieved that not with splashy, impulsive acquisitions over the past two seasons, but by carefully assembling a roster of hand-picked, high-character players with skills that could be maximized in Budenholzer's system.

The feeling in Atlanta is that this team-building strategy is working beautifully, and there's no inclination to blow up a well-crafted, long-term plan because the Hawks ran into a buzzsaw operated by James.

Will the Hawks run it back and shell out big paychecks to keep both DeMarre Carroll and Paul Millsap? AP Photo/David Zalubowski2. Will the Hawks sign free agents Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll and bring the band back together for 2015-16?

The Hawks' success this season has made this a slightly more difficult question to answer than it was six months ago because Millsap and Carroll are now at their peak values.

After all the accounting for cap holds and their first-round pick (No. 15 overall) in this June's draft, the Hawks figure to have approximately $23 million under the salary cap for those signings. Will that get it done? The sense both inside the Hawks and around the league is "not anymore."

Millsap, who is eligible for a max contract worth more than $18 million a year, is the rare player who spans the spectrum of opinion on what a power forward should look like in the NBA. The old school loves his physicality and work ethic, while the analytics-oriented appreciate his newfound range, versatility and the fact his teams aredecisively better when he's out there. And everyone can get behind his durability and professionalism.

With the large amount of cap space available around the league -- combined with the collective belief that any contract signed this summer will look like a discount when the cap increases by as much as 30 percent in the summer of 2016 -- a "2015 max" salary doesn't seem at all outlandish for Millsap. Plus, many around the league feel someone will come calling after the LaMarcus Aldridgeand Kevin Love dominoes fall. Will it be Atlanta?

EDITOR'S PICKSRoster Reload: Hawks need size in the paint

Kevin Pelton looks at how the Atlanta Hawks could reload their roster for 2015-16.

There isn't a free agent who played himself into a bigger pay raise than Carroll. Less than two years ago, he was a defensive specialist who could plug a hole at small forward on the cheap. On July 1, he'll be a bona fide starting small forward who plays lockdown perimeter defense, hits the 3 at a 40 percent clip, works tirelessly off the ball, creates for himself and makes plays for others.

Following Carroll's estimated annual salary on his next contract has been like tracking an internet stock you didn't buy soon enough. Since opening night, he's risen from a candidate for a contract in the neighborhood of the midlevel exception (which would still represent more than double his current paycheck), to someone who has a reasonable claim on an eight-figure salary. Sources say the Hawks are bracing themselves for an asking price of 4 years and $50 million -- and given the postseason Carroll put together and the interest around the league, possibly even more. If the price tag is much higher than that, there's good reason to believe the flexibility-minded Hawks could bow out, though their strong preference is to retain Carroll, who has been an essential cog in their two-way success.

All this is to say that in order to accommodate both Millsap and Carroll, the Hawks will have to move a couple of smaller contracts -- say, Mike Scott andShelvin Mack. This shouldn't be too difficult, but the more important question for the Hawks is how proactive will they be with regard to Millsap and Carroll?

This Hawks administration has been reluctant to extend free agents lengthier deals, and you could see a scenario where they offer Millsap and/or Carroll a higher annual salary for a shorter term. But for Millsap (30 years old) and Carroll (turns 29 in July), this is likely the biggest payday of their careers, and it's hard to imagine either not evaluating offers based on their total guaranteed value. And if that's the case, do the Hawks watch the market for their two prized free agents, and then make their move, much the way they did with Jeff Teague two summers ago?

The likely strategy probably lies somewhere in between. The Hawks have built a fraternal culture in Atlanta. "We are a family," Millsap said following the Game 4 loss in Cleveland. "This team is close. It will play a lot into the decision." The word from Atlanta is that its strong preference is to retain its two gritty, hard-working starting forwards, so long as the price isn't unreasonable.

But the Hawks also have a deliberate, careful front office that places a premium on financial flexibility. If the front office peers into the future and sees too much money committed to too many players in their 30s -- whose best seasons are behind them -- that could inspire the Hawks brass to look at other options. This is not a potential reality that scares or paralyzes the Hawks in any way. They'll have the resources to get what they need this summer. They'd love for that to be Millsap and Carroll, but they're confident they could be successful if it's not.

Jeff Teague had a breakout season ... but is backup Dennis Schröder the point guard of the future in Atlanta? Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE/Getty Images3. Who is the Hawks' point guard of the future?