The Tank Thread

[davis171]

13 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Super lucky?  Isn't that what the "tank" strategy is?  To get "super lucky"?

It actually took a lot more GM skill to do what Detroit and Utah did.

yes I'd say finding 2 hall of fame players outside the top 10 in drafts that close together one of the luckier things of all time. Most would agree they are both top 30 all time at least and could argue top 20. The odds are obviously higher of nailing a pick if you are drafting higher not anywhere close to a lock but higher for sure. Besides what would you have liked the hawks to have done this past offseason sign Millsap and go way over the cap? (Not that Ressler would have done it and don't blame him)

Edited February 27, 2018 by davis171

[CBAreject]

22 minutes ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Super lucky?  Isn't that what the "tank" strategy is?  To get "super lucky"?

It actually took a lot more GM skill to do what Detroit and Utah did.

Yes, it takes less skill or luck to land HOF talent in the top 5 than in the 13-20 range.  That’s the whole point. If you want to bank on getting Malone and Stockton in the teens instead of Adam Keefe and Rumeal Robinson, then you’re going to be disappointed.  

Heck, we nailed some of those picks the last few years with Teague, Schröder, and Collins, but still those guys are supporting players that you build with but not around. 

[CBAreject]

1 hour ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Detroit

Let’s look at how Detroit built that championship team.  The first thing they did was trade Grant Hill (#3 Pick) for a package including Ben Wallace.  They didn’t want to trade Hill, and Wallace was not expected to become he did, but he ended up becoming one of the most valuable players in the NBA for the next 6 years.  

The next thing major move was to trade Jerry Stackhouse (#2 Pick) for Rip Hamilton   

So did they start as a middling team without a star and no assets and acquire talent?  Or were they a team with young tradable assets who parlayed them into better players for their scheme?

[KB21]

1 hour ago, deester11 said:

Name his mistakes and tell us how you'd do better. 

Oh, let's see:

1.  The decision to bottom the roster out and not even attempt to field a competitive team.

2.  The decisions to give player options to Mike Muscala and Dewayne Dedmon.  Those player options made both players untradeable.

3.  Signing Ersan to just a one year deal when Atlanta had bird rights on him.  This gave Ersan the right to veto any trade.

4.  Not offering Paul Millsap a contract.

5.  Signing Tyler Dorsey too soon with cap space instead of using the minimum player exception on him.

6.  Taking on Jamal Crawford's contract only to buy him out just to get what will be a glorified 2nd round pick.  

7.  Signing Antonius Cleveland to a 10 day contract when he is injured and can't even practice when he simply could have converted Maggette/White to a NBA deal.  

[deester11]

53 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Oh, let's see:

1.  The decision to bottom the roster out and not even attempt to field a competitive team.

2.  The decisions to give player options to Mike Muscala and Dewayne Dedmon.  Those player options made both players untradeable.

3.  Signing Ersan to just a one year deal when Atlanta had bird rights on him.  This gave Ersan the right to veto any trade.

4.  Not offering Paul Millsap a contract.

5.  Signing Tyler Dorsey too soon with cap space instead of using the minimum player exception on him.

6.  Taking on Jamal Crawford's contract only to buy him out just to get what will be a glorified 2nd round pick.  

7.  Signing Antonius Cleveland to a 10 day contract when he is injured and can't even practice when he simply could have converted Maggette/White to a NBA deal.  

Lots of reaching in all of those.  (And I'd take what Schlenk has done over Budcox decisions already).  Did they maximize any assets?

1. Maybe. They were in most games before the purge and move to young guys.

2. You expected both to draw trade interest? Dedmon  bet on himself.  Good for him.  Nothing bad about those.

3. Semi agree.

4. That was not a bad decision.  

5. Dorsey is already contributing more than our most recent 2nd rounders.  No issue for me.

6. Glorified or not, it's a good asset.  

7.  Procedural and a long term play.

 

[KB21]

3 minutes ago, deester11 said:

Lots of reaching in all of those.  (And I'd take what Schlenk has done over Budcox decisions already).  Did they maximize any assets?

1. Maybe. They were in most games before the purge and move to young guys.

2. You expected both to draw trade interest? Dedmon  bet on himself.  Good for him.  Nothing bad about those.

3. Semi agree.

4. That was not a bad decision.  

5. Dorsey is already contributing more than our most recent 2nd rounders.  No issue for me.

6. Glorified or not, it's a good asset.  

7.  Procedural and a long term play.

 

Just wait till you see the shit show Schlenk will put together for next year.  It's going to be horrifically bad.

[CBAreject]

57 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Just wait till you see the shit show Schlenk will put together for next year.  It's going to be horrifically bad.

Maybe, but you don’t know that.  And you will judge whatever happens through a hilariously myopic lens.  Let’s agree that we won’t challenge for the playoffs next year.  My hope is that we use next year to position ourselves to contend in the future.  That may entail taking more salary dumps for more draft assets or young players.  Giddy up.  

When you are asset-poor, as we were last year and are again this year, you have to trade wins for future assets.  There is simply no alternative.  The hope is that we sit in an asset-rich position in two years.  That is very doable.  We won’t be a contender, but we can be in an advantageous position and not deadlocked into mediocrity as a CEILING.  

Edited February 27, 2018 by CBAreject

[KB21]

Oh, there will be no avoiding getting worse.  Travis isn’t going to sign anyone that can actually make the team better like a Derrick Favors, and the team is going to be even younger.  Younger equals worse.  

Combine that with the fact that I don’t think Bud is going to stay on for this tank, and you have a much worse season.  Travis will go get some AAU style coach who will play the young guys before they are ready and will accept losing.  

Draft picks aren’t much of an asset since they can’t help you win now   

 

[CBAreject]

36 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Oh, there will be no avoiding getting worse.  Travis isn’t going to sign anyone that can actually make the team better like a Derrick Favors, and the team is going to be even younger.  Younger equals worse.  

 

I didn’t say we wouldn’t be worse, but we can be worse record-wise and better positioned asset-wise.  Signing Derrick Favors, at this point in the rebuild would be a huge mistake, on the order of our Joe Johnson acquisition.  The timing is all off to sign a guy who is a good third option.  It makes you too good to draft top-5 without giving you the core you need to utilize a third option.  

 

40 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Combine that with the fact that I don’t think Bud is going to stay on for this tank, and you have a much worse season  

 

That is a legitimate concern.  I hope Bud sticks around.  We were committed to tank largely by his decisions, so I kind of feel he owes us.  

 

42 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Draft picks aren’t much of an asset since they can’t help you win now   

 

You and I have very different definitions of asset, as I’ve made pains to explain.  To you, an aging Dwight Howard making $25 million is an asset because he “helps you win”. To me, he is a liability because he offers negative value considering his salary and is untradeable.  If you build a team of as many players with the production to salary ratio of Howard as you could sign, that team will be in the luxury tax and miss the playoffs.  

[TheNorthCydeRises]

I already stated what I would do.

The fear last summer, was that there's no way the Hawks could sign Millsap for 5 years at the MAX, or close to it.  But if he were willing to take a 3 year / 90 million deal like he did with Denver, that's decent enough to re-sign.

Also, you keep Howard for one more year.   If you bring that guy here, you can't give up on the experiment after Year 1.  You at least have to go one more year, before calling it a failure.

 

[TheNorthCydeRises]

7 hours ago, CBAreject said:

Let’s look at how Detroit built that championship team.  The first thing they did was trade Grant Hill (#3 Pick) for a package including Ben Wallace.  They didn’t want to trade Hill, and Wallace was not expected to become he did, but he ended up becoming one of the most valuable players in the NBA for the next 6 years.  

The next thing major move was to trade Jerry Stackhouse (#2 Pick) for Rip Hamilton   

So did they start as a middling team without a star and no assets and acquire talent?  Or were they a team with young tradable assets who parlayed them into better players for their scheme?

 

They were a middling team.

The Hawks had assets too when they were a "middling team".  Let's not act like Jerry Stackhouse's star was brighter than Joe Johnson's or even Josh Smith's.  Stackhouse, when he averaged 29 ppg, took a whopping 24 shots a game to get those points and shot 40%.  Detroit missed the playoffs that year, only winning 32 games.  Stack was an inefficient, volume shooting scorer who Detroit knew they had to upgrade, in order to make them better team. 

Michael Jordan, in his "infinite wisdom", viewed Stack as a talent the Wizards could cultivate, and was willing to part ways with the very good, but non superstar Rip Hamilton.  Rip would go on to be that very good SG for years, while Stack wouldn't even last 2 years in Washington.

The Pistons managed to survive the loss of Grant Hill by trading him for defensive assets, and trading their inefficient volume shooting SG for a much more steady scorer.  Then they added the right pieces from a chemistry standpoint, including the right coach, to elevate them to championship level.

 

Contrast that with the Hawks.

During our lean years from 2004 - 2008, this is what we acquired

 

6th pick -  Josh Childress

17th pick - Josh Smith

Trade for Joe Johnson ( who was a 10th pick in 2001 )

2nd pick - Marvin Williams

5th pick - Shelden Williams

3rd pick - Al Horford

 

When it came time to make significant moves to possibly shake up the chemistry of the team, what did we do?

 

Childress - went to Greece

Smith -re-signed after rookie contract . . . then let walk

Johnson - re-signed to MAX deal . . then traded for expiring contracts + Kyle Korver

Marvin - re-signed after rookie contract . . . then traded for Devin Harris ( expiring contract )

Shelden - traded for Mike Bibby

Horford - re-signed after rookie contract . . . then he left to sign with Boston

 

So out of the 6 major draft pick assets the Hawks have had during the "tank years", the Hawks re-upped with 4 of them, because "they loved their core".  But once they saw that the core couldn't get to that next level, they either let the player walk, or executed a salary dump.   The best players the Hawks acquired, were Kyle Korver with a Joe Johnson trade exception, and Mike Bibby in a salary dump by the Kings.

 

To Danny Ferry's credit, the exodus of Johnson expiring contracts + letting Smith walk, did lead to the Hawks signing Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll in 2013.  But even Ferry messed that up by only giving those guys 2 year contracts and not securing their Bird Rights.  So what happens?

Carroll - let walk, because they couldn't re-sign both DeMarre and Paul ( had to stay under the salary cap, and couldn't go over it )

Millsap - re-signed to a 3 year deal ( opted out after 2 ) . . . then let walk so that the franchise could tank.

 

To make sure the Hawks weren't good enough, they essentially traded Dwight Howard for an even worse contract in Plumlee.  And a role player that they possibly could've used in Belinelli, they had to buy out, out of fear that they might be too good to get a top 3 pick.

 

At least we got something by trading Jeff Teague ( #12 pick - Taurean Prince ) . . . whose development as a player is still TBD.

 

 

[Brotha2ThaNite]

It's time for someone... JC and Dennis to fake an injury. 

 

We have 5 teams with 18 wins. I know it might be bad to have a team to take Ls but my whole life about the NBA will change if we could get that #1.  These Phoenix Suns are starting to get on my nerves 

[KB21]

7 hours ago, CBAreject said:

I didn’t say we wouldn’t be worse, but we can be worse record-wise and better positioned asset-wise.  Signing Derrick Favors, at this point in the rebuild would be a huge mistake, on the order of our Joe Johnson acquisition.  The timing is all off to sign a guy who is a good third option.  It makes you too good to draft top-5 without giving you the core you need to utilize a third option.  

 

That is a legitimate concern.  I hope Bud sticks around.  We were committed to tank largely by his decisions, so I kind of feel he owes us.  

 

You and I have very different definitions of asset, as I’ve made pains to explain.  To you, an aging Dwight Howard making $25 million is an asset because he “helps you win”. To me, he is a liability because he offers negative value considering his salary and is untradeable.  If you build a team of as many players with the production to salary ratio of Howard as you could sign, that team will be in the luxury tax and miss the playoffs.  

To me, having a winning culture is the best asset of all.  Travish Sclenk flushed Atlanta's winning culture down the toilet though.

I would definitely sign Derrick Favors this off season.

[KB21]

Your whole life about the NBA would change if you could get an Andrew Wiggins or Anthony Bennett?

[AHF]

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

Your whole life about the NBA would change if you could get an Andrew Wiggins or Anthony Bennett?

You know that changes nobody's NBA life when you bust on your pick.  Shaq, Duncan, Jordan, Hakeem, Nique, Kareem, Durant, LeBron, ADavis, Magic, etc. would all be significant enough to drive the direction of our team for the next decade.  Is there someone like that in this draft?  I'd say there isn't a no brainer like that but a lot of guys who are at least as intriguing as Steph Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Karl Malone, Dwayne Wade, Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Dikembe Mutombo, etc. were coming into the draft.

[AHF]

13 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Detroit ( early 2000s )

 

They leveraged the #2 overall and #3 overall picks in the draft to get two of their core pieces so I'm not certain whether this qualifies or not but I do agree the Pistons are the lone exception for the last 30+ years in that they won without a true superstar.

12 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

Utah ( mid 1980s )

Karl Malone - drafted 13th

John Stockton - drafted 16th

 

Didn't win a title, but was a high quality team for years, and went to back to back NBA Finals.  Matter of fact, they had a stretch in the 1990s in which they went to 5 out of 7 Western Conference Finals.

 

 

This Utah is being held up an example of a consistent playoff team?

26 wins

24 wins

28 wins

25 wins

30 wins

45 wins

41 wins

13 hours ago, KB21 said:

His deal is one of many mistakes Travis Schlenk has made.  

How is that a mistake?  Schlenk didn't have the option to sign him without an out.  You might as well say that Schlenk made a mistake by not trading for Kevin Durant this offseason.  If  you want to tell me you would have signed him to a significantly richer deal then I'll listen - 3/$33 and I think he'll sign but just saying Dedmon would accept a deal he clearly rejected (no way Schlenk led with a player option) and that you'd tack an extra year on at the same salary without a player option is silly and I think you know that.  It is the same situation as Sap and DMC.  Both rejected longer deals at the annual salaries that they signed for.  So if you want to retcon a world in which you sign them to longer deals they have to be materially richer deals.

[davis171]

6 hours ago, TheNorthCydeRises said:

I already stated what I would do.

The fear last summer, was that there's no way the Hawks could sign Millsap for 5 years at the MAX, or close to it.  But if he were willing to take a 3 year / 90 million deal like he did with Denver, that's decent enough to re-sign.

Also, you keep Howard for one more year.   If you bring that guy here, you can't give up on the experiment after Year 1.  You at least have to go one more year, before calling it a failure.

 

In no way would ownership pay Sap 90 million to see his numbers decline from age. Howard is a solid piece not for 20+ million and how do you get better from there with no cap space. we would be stuck for 3 years with a 30+ year old PF making 35 million and Dwight at 30+ making just under 30mil. That sound good to you?

[davis171]

1 hour ago, KB21 said:

To me, having a winning culture is the best asset of all.  Travish Sclenk flushed Atlanta's winning culture down the toilet though.

I would definitely sign Derrick Favors this off season.

See you saw a winning culture I saw a mediocre culture who never took risks who when the stars aligned we got swept by a team who was without 2 all stars. And don't bring up Korver and Carroll were out we weren't beating them or Golden State for that matter. Derrick Favors is a guy I like and a hometown guy, however he has said on multiple occasions he doesn't want to play center so unless you want to play him and collins at center together I don't really see the fit.

Edited February 27, 2018 by davis171

[Sothron]

The tank is so bad in so many teams that Silver just ask the teams to forfeit the games and proceed directly to the "random" lottery drawing.

[Sothron]

Favors would have been great in 2007 not 2017. Why are we talking about him? My dream draft is Ayton for center and they grow Collins at PF.