FiveThirtyEight | Hawks 2018-19 will win 28, not finish last in East, and actually have 6% shot at playoffs (!)

[sturt]

 

 

[capstone21]

6th to last for the Mavs ... perfect!

[bleachkit]

I'll be pissed if Mavs get a top 5 pick.

[capstone21]

2 hours ago, bleachkit said:

I'll be pissed if Mavs get a top 5 pick.

I can't imagine there not being an improvement with them ... adding Donic and Jordan, another year of experience for Smith Jr. along with vets Dirk, Barnes and Matthews (and i think Dwight Powell is underrated).  

[AHF]

Just now, capstone21 said:

I can't imagine there not being an improvement with them ... adding Donic and Jordan, another year of experience for Smith Jr. along with vets Dirk, Barnes and Matthews (and i think Dwight Powell is underrated).  

Agreed but if something goes south don’t be surprised to see them pull a Golden State and blatantly tank like hell to keep their pick.  Unless they make the playoffs, there will be some risk not matter where they finish.

[Spud2nique]

27 minutes ago, AHF said:

pull a Golden State

I hate the Warriors more than anyone starting in 1986 but they don’t come to mind when you say tank like hell. Maybe in the 90’s to grab Webber but I can’t remember them tanking too often.

[Spud2nique]

I think it’s a moot point as the Mavs will be more of a 7-14 pick for us imo...if they make the playoffs as the 8th seed in the West I’m not totally surprised because of guys like Jordan, Mathews and whoever else ? mentioned and vets like Dirk and Luka who btw plays like a freakin 10 year vet like Trae...and Rick Carlisle a  top 5 coach (imo). They won’t get a 1-5 pick. I’ll be upset if they land at #12 lottery odds and crack top 3 and yank it away from us.

[AHF]

58 minutes ago, Spud2nique said:

I hate the Warriors more than anyone starting in 1986 but they don’t come to mind when you say tank like hell. Maybe in the 90’s to grab Webber but I can’t remember them tanking too often.

This makes me think you have begun to repress memories associated with the Warriors.  You have to remember when they were going to lose their lottery pick and went to tanksville to ensure they kept it (and ended up with Harrison Barnes):

Quote

We shut Steph down at the time. And we knew that we had to fall into those bottom seven spots to get our pick, and that was really important to us. Tanking? I guess. It was a conscious decision we made to shoot for next year.

I think you have to, as a franchise, do what’s best for the franchise. And sometimes, that means securing your draft pick if you can.

The above quote is from Travis Schlenk admitting they tanked to move down in the draft so their pick would be protected and kept.  The reason you should be thinking of GS when assessing the risk of us losing the Dallas pick is this would play out the same basic way - both teams would start the year competing but when it became clear they weren't ready to contend they would tank like hell to keep their pick.  That is a risk for us -- especially for the people dreaming of the pick being 6-10.  You really confident Dallas won't try pull a Golden State and try to keep that pick if they are on pace to barely lose it to us?  I'm not.  And that is pulling a Golden State when you drop in the standings to keep your protected pick.

[KB21]

It should be pointed out that FiveThirtyEight also projected 27 wins for the Hawks last year, and their CARMELO projections and how they use them to project the actual record are very conservative.   Their projections overestimated the Hawks last year, and they have done so again this year.  

[NBASupes]

I think it is possible. The coaching now fits the personnel and Trae Young is really really good. 

[Spud2nique]

55 minutes ago, AHF said:

This makes me think you have begun to repress memories associated with the Warriors.  You have to remember when they were going to lose their lottery pick and went to tanksville to ensure they kept it (and ended up with Harrison Barnes):

The above quote is from Travis Schlenk admitting they tanked to move down in the draft so their pick would be protected and kept.  The reason you should be thinking of GS when assessing the risk of us losing the Dallas pick is this would play out the same basic way - both teams would start the year competing but when it became clear they weren't ready to contend they would tank like hell to keep their pick.  That is a risk for us -- especially for the people dreaming of the pick being 6-10.  You really confident Dallas won't try pull a Golden State and try to keep that pick if they are on pace to barely lose it to us?  I'm not.  And that is pulling a Golden State when you drop in the standings to keep your protected pick.

Oh yes that’s right the Barnes tank. Honestly the Warriors has been bad forever and even if they had tanked all those other years which they might have towards the end of the season like you say, they still didn’t go anywhere with the likes of Adonai Foule and Todd Fuller being lottery picks. When Nelly was there they found gems in a lot of dudes including run TMC and Spree. 

The Mavs are sheisty as hell I agree but having openly admitting to tanking last season and the league not punishing them, would they be stupid enough to do it again, or do it very obviously? I dunno. Just looking at their roster, I see a borderline playoff team if they gel quickly. Again if I had to guess right this second I’d say Mavs get the 11th worst record aka basically the 11th pick for us. Honestly like everyone else I’m hoping for the 6th pick but I don’t think it’s going to be that high with their roster. I think they get about 35 or so wins. Maybe 37ish.

[KB21]

16 minutes ago, NBASupes said:

I think it is possible. The coaching now fits the personnel and Trae Young is really really good. 

Well, we now have bad coaching to go with bad talent, so I guess you can say it fits and be accurate.

[Alex]

Yep because that sorry website is reputable.  

[sturt]

19 minutes ago, KB21 said:

Well, we now have bad coaching to go with bad talent, so I guess you can say it fits and be accurate.

Guilty of the same thing you accuse others of, I'm afraid.... there is no way for any of us to know how good or bad the new coach is until he actually coaches. That hasn't happened yet, of course.

[KB21]

Just now, sturt said:

Guilty of the same thing you accuse others of, I'm afraid.... there is no way for any of us to know how good or bad the new coach is until he actually coaches. That hasn't happened yet, of course.

I know that he was hired for one reason.....to absorb the losses the team will incur over the next 3-4 years.  

It sure as hell wasn't about player development, as the Hawks already had one of the best player development coaches in the NBA.

[sturt]

43 minutes ago, KB21 said:

It should be pointed out that FiveThirtyEight also projected 27 wins for the Hawks last year, and their CARMELO projections and how they use them to project the actual record are very conservative.   Their projections overestimated the Hawks last year, and they have done so again this year.  

It's true that there is no shortage of stat geeks who enjoy attempting to quantify "how good" a player or set of players has been, in the pursuit of establishing how good they are right now, and even more daunting, how good they're going to be.

And there's none that have been able to make it a patently objective science, of course.

We all, hopefully, get that, but if not, we should... and, understand that this is just another something to talk about.

[sturt]

2 minutes ago, KB21 said:

I know that he was hired for one reason.....to absorb the losses the team will incur over the next 3-4 years.  

It sure as hell wasn't about player development, as the Hawks already had one of the best player development coaches in the NBA.

 

 

Dodge.

Do you know how bad of a coach he is, or not?

Have a sense you're going to avoid answering that question. (Again.)

 

 

[KB21]

8 minutes ago, sturt said:

 

 

Dodge.

Do you know how bad of a coach he is, or not?

Have a sense you're going to avoid answering that question. (Again.)

 

 

The fact that the Hawks were the only team interested in him tells me everything I need to know.  I also have little to no respect for anyone associated with the Philadelphia tank.

[sturt]

(Like I said.)

No. Tells you how wanted he was. Doesn't tell you how good of a coach he will be.

Even if we assume there was absolutely no one who thought Pierce would amount to anything... and that's not the case, but let's pretend it was for the sake of argument... there is no shortage of coaches and for that matter players who were discounted at one time, but rose to prominence once given the chance to perform.

I'm agnostic here. I may have theories and opinions, but I state them as such, and acknowledge that reality could be different. It's irrational to present oneself as omniscient, as if any one would be persuaded of that. That goes both for you as someone who seems determined to condemn this guy as the scum at the bottom of the coaching barrel, and for those who consider him already to be something heaven-sent.

[KB21]

2 hours ago, sturt said:

(Like I said.)

No. Tells you how wanted he was. Doesn't tell you how good of a coach he will be.

Even if we assume there was absolutely no one who thought Pierce would amount to anything... and that's not the case, but let's pretend it was for the sake of argument... there is no shortage of coaches and for that matter players who were discounted at one time, but rose to prominence once given the chance to perform.

I'm agnostic here. I may have theories and opinions, but I state them as such, and acknowledge that reality could be different. It's irrational to present oneself as omniscient, as if any one would be persuaded of that. That goes both for you as someone who seems determined to condemn this guy as the scum at the bottom of the coaching barrel, and for those who consider him already to be something heaven-sent.

I disagree, and it is based on this simple fact.  No credible coach is going to take a job in an intentional tanking situation where he knows he is going to lose.  No credible coach was going to touch this job with a 10 foot pole this off season.  The Hawks couldn't even get to the table with Etorre Messina, who would have been by far the best choice to replace Mike Budenholzer.